International Simulation Football League
(S26) Ultimus Week - Printable Version

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RE: (S26) Ultimus Week - z0rem - 01-05-2021

Your team has made it to the playoffs! Put together a pre-game playlist and explain how those songs will hype your players.
Prof Godfrey Gravity has been known to jam out to a lot of different styles of music.  Where he grew up in Mongolia did not have a diverse set of music that he would listen to on a daily basis as there just wasn’t a lot of power or anything that would allow people to have good radios, TVs, etc.  For the longest time, Godfrey just spent his free time on the steps with his friends throat singing and enjoying the cultural advantages of having fresh clean air on his lungs.  When he came to the league, he was introduced to music and he fell in love.  For the longest time he listened to a lot of Hans Zimmer and the soundtrack for Intersteller.  It really provided this out of body experience to him while he concentrated on his training.  So that has to be on the playlist.  He then moved on to the Beastie Boys after watching the Star Trek movies and listening to Intergalactic Planetary.  There was a solid week where you couldn’t find Godfrey just spitting out the rhymes so beautifully elocuted by the boys.  His final tracks that he keeps near an dear to his heart is the Mongolian metal band The Hu.  It reminds him of his home and lets him rock out as well.  Basically these songs will rocket the team to the winners circle!

Write about another sim league you are in and which parts of it you enjoy. If you are only in the ISFL, write about your ideas for a sim league with another sport.
I am in the SHL and that is the sim league that I spend most of my time in.  I was never much a sim league person until I ran across a random reddit post that said that I could play my own character my way.  What hooked me was that I was jonesing for a be your own player kind of thing and NHL 18 just didn’t cut it any more as I am a horrible chel player.  When I was told I could make a player and all I had to do was post on a forum a couple times a week I was sold.  I know that there are many other leagues out there.  PBE has the best sims currently, although I haven’t watched ISFL sims at all.  I think because hockey is my preferred sport I love looking at all the stats that are associated with it.  People have gone and created personas that they stick to while writing media and just shooting the shit.  I think my favorite part of the league is that my player is doing quite well.  He has 3 cup wins and is on a team that consistently makes the playoffs since he was drafted to them.

Pretend injuries are a thing in the ISFL and your team has had a lot of them lately – so many that your GM has asked you to play out of position. What position are they asking you to play and what about your player build will help you succeed in this role?
Godfrey is a big guy who plays defensive tackle and relies on his speed and strength to just tear down the opposing team.  With so many players injured on the team he gets drafted to, the coach has asked Godfrey to step up and play QB for the team.  Why QB? Because that’s the position that Godfrey said he would play if the coaches forced him to get off tackle.  It’s not that he has any specific affinity to playing the position, its just that the running back wasn’t injured and that is the only other position Godfrey could really play.  So because the running back would not play QB or something else it’s now Godfreys turn to step up.  He has no stats in arm but his high strength would allow him to just throw bombs without any accuracy.  He can actually throw pretty far all things said and done, but he told the coach that as long as hes QB the only play being run is the hail mary or any play that has the QB running.  Basically the team decided that they didn’t need to pass to win.  If you can create creative running plays you can essentially make the QB position irrelevant. 

Your player has been paid to endorse a product/service. What is it? How do you endorse it?
Prof Gravity has been paid to endorse TESLA and their space endeavors.  Elon Musk could have definitely paid for a player with higher consumer base recognition, but he could not resist taking advantage of the simple name that this terrifying tackle has chosen to present himself as.  The plan was that Godfrey was to endorse all the space products that were being put out to help smooth over the publics outcry of how much of a jerk Elon Musk is.  While Godfrey can look quite frightening and he can be quite frightening, he also has that cuddly bear look and that smooth low voice that just begs for a person to fall in love with him.  To start off with, Godfrey recorded some radio pieces as well as some commercials.  At first people wo heard him thought immediately of the all state man, but after the initial hook they were sold on a completely new idea.  Godfrey, it turns out, was born to be an actor of all things big and small. Then they did some branding on Godfrey himself as the next promotion set had him breaking open holes in the space time continuum with his powerful tackles.  It was so kitchey that it was actually hilarious and boosted TESLA popularity.  The partnership between Godfrey and TESLA still continues to this day.

RE: (S26) Ultimus Week - 3lewsers - 01-05-2021

Task 24) Design a ticket stub or promotional poster for a playoff game or the final. Graphics only.

[Image: Gw1ABh6.jpg]


Task 27) Create a billboard, magazine cover, unique trading card, or video game cover depicting a superstar of the league. Graphics only.

[Image: fugYtBJ.jpg]


Task 22) Your player has been paid to endorse a product/service. What is it? How do you endorse it?

[Image: oemFspl.jpg]



Task 29) Awards season will soon be upon us. If you could create an award for anything in the league that doesn’t already exist, what would it be? Who do you think should get it?

[Image: Q8NyAys.jpg]

RE: (S26) Ultimus Week - Opera_Phantom - 01-05-2021

If you follow Quarterback extraordinaire Jay Cue's career, you should know by now that he is a season 18 player, entering his 3rd season of regression. Season 18 was a great class, that came from the second (i think) r/nfl reddit recruitment, but was the biggest draft class to ever join the, then, NSFL at that time. I can't even remember how many new users came into the game due to that, but looking at the Draft Wiki, 111 players entered the ISFL draft in season 18, when the league had only 10 teams.
Looking at that class, we can say that many of its members helped with carving the future of the league, either as head office members, as job heads or members, as General Managers or Co's, and i really believe that maybe 2 or 3 of them will become Hall of Famers when the time comes.
Starting on the first round, we have Bjorn Ironside (@IsaStarcrossed), number 1 pick to the New Orleans Secondline, that was a part of an Ultimus win and at a certain point was also a General Manager for the team. He is one of the "guilty people" that turned the NOLA team into a powerhouse. Even though he is now retired with Ironside, he still is a very integral part of the league. Speaking of NOLA, we obviously can't forget Marcella Toriki, user @bex, that became a Head Office member and soon after the league commissioner, being one of the reasons why the league managed to grow so much since that time. Still on the first round we have 2 of the Orange County Otters veterans, Korrin Abernathy (@"Laser") and Tyrone Biggums (@Revolution5), that kept the Otters consistently fighting for, and winning, championships. Also, no point in leaving Zach Hall (@Hallmonitor_20) out of this, with him being a big part of the Philadelphia Liberty for a number of years, a team that he managed for some seasons. And at number 8, Maurice Virtanen (@BaconBrother), the LB that eventually became an Offensive Lineman for the Yellowknife Wraiths. He was, until he decided to step back a bit from the league, the leader of this class in TPE, a torch that he left to Jay Cue at around 1100 TPE. Virtanen also helped his team win a ring, with multiple Ultimus appearances, while also holding a few league jobs, showing that this draft class came into the league with a lot of desire to help. So, still on the first round of that draft and we have some of the most successful users drafted, either on the field with their players or simply with their work in helping the league becoming what it is today.
Going into the 2nd round, the most notable players are Mathias Hanyadi (@"CLG_Rampage"), running back drafted at #17 for the Wraiths, that while winning a title with Virtanen, also snagged a Most Valuable Player Award on the way, breaking the Franklin Armstrong and OCO monopoly. The next pick, #18, brought us Jay Cue, the Arizona Outlaws faithful, that became one of the players with the highest TPE ever in the league, reaching #3 with 1471 TPE. While he managed to get a few individual awards and fell short on a couple MVP ones, his in-field career is still lacking, since he only managed to guide the Outlaws to 1 playoff game in 8 seasons. At the moment he holds a couple of league jobs and is the Head Banker, so he has everyone's money under his thumb. Going into the third round, we can find another General Manager, David Rector (@ddrector), that spent his entire career playing for NOLA, and like Ironside and Toriki, helped the big easy team grow into a contender. NOLA seemed to get the best of the this draft class, as they also drafted Givussafare Rubbe (@caltroit_red_flames), that became one of the best offensive lineman to play in the league, reaching, if i remember correctly, over 1000 TPE at a certain point of his career.
Obviously i am not talking about every single player of this class that had an impact on the league, not enough time for it, but from this short text you can definitely see the amount of well known users drafted, that came into the game and made a difference.
Not to brag (at least not to brag a lot), but i really feel that season 18 was the point where the league went from a small little community of users that played a sim game to a worldwide group of members that shared an interest. Since then we have seen bigger draft classes that had a lot of users that helped the league grow even more, but being the first class of a bigger size is a trophy nobody can reject. And if the league is now how it is, it owes some of it to Season 18 players.


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RE: (S26) Ultimus Week - Number 82 - 01-05-2021

Tier 3 Task
20) Pretend injuries are a thing in the ISFL and your team has had a lot of them lately – so many that your GM has asked you to play out of position. What position are they asking you to play and what about your player build will help you succeed in this role?

Similar to last season, Dawkins was expected to line up at both Strong Safety and Free Safety for the upcoming season. With injuries in the Hahalua secondary, it was speculated that Dawkins could very well be moved around the secondary, playing outside corner in some formations. This was not something unexpected considering his familiarity with playing cornerback having also spent time there during his college career with the University of Chicago. Additionally, back in Season 23, his rookie campaign, Dawkins was used both as a free safety and as the teams outside corner along side Jim Waters. His performance that season earned him a spot in the AFSC Pro Bowl, so it was assumed that Dawkins would be the player that would to fill the void.

Discussions were short as Dawkins was eager to get more involved coverage this season as he had a down year having been less effective against the opposition passing game compared to previous season, having missed the Pro Bowl selection for the first time in his career. His combination of speed and strength in addition to his prior experience, were key reasons as to why Dawkins was thought to be the player who could fill in at cornerback. Additionally, his ability to tackle was thought to be useful lining up at left cornerback.

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Tier 3 Task
24) Design a ticket stub or promotional poster for a playoff game or the final. Graphics only.
NOLA Wildcard Ticket
[Image: tKCuOZF.png]


Tier 3 Task
28) The league is moving on to a new sim. What do you think about it? Are you excited to leave the old one behind? Maybe not so excited about it? Which parts of it do you think will be great, or not so great?

I'm kinda torn about moving to the sim and admittedly it is for selfish reasons. When I first created, I was looking to create a player who would hopefully be among the leagues best kick returners. For that reason I went with the centre fielder archetype (although I was tempted to go the man to man cornerback route) as I did want to play safety. Looking at the caps for the centre fielder archetype, agility caps at 95 with speed and endurance capped at 100. With those attributes being particularly important in a players ability to return the football it seemed to be a decent option for return specialist who played on the defensive side of the ball.

With the attributes caps for each archetype changing with the move to DDSPF21 changing, it seems like the meta for returners would be more geared towards receiving backs and slot receivers for their combination of speed, agility and endurance. While the centre fielder archetype while having the same speed as those archetypes (both 95), the centre fielder role has their agility capped at 90, 5 less than the receiving back and slot receiver archetypes. Now I don't know for certain what attributes matter most in the new sim but it would appear that chasing after kick return records could very well be further out of reach then if we were to stay with DDSPF16.

On the other hand, sim testing will probably be less of a thing. It's kinda of positive and negative. Positive because that something that I won't do anymore and so I guess I might have a bit of free time which is nice. Also sometimes knowing test results and then seeing what the sim throws out on stream can be, well, not great. At the same time, it's kinda a negative as attempting to maximise your chances in matchup was an interesting aspect that I guess I may miss. But hey, new sim will likely present some new things which I guess will be interesting to see and learn about.

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Tier 3 Task
30) Make a scouting report for any of the ISFL or DSFL draftees. Show their stats, abilities, TPE, highlights, or totally fraudulent mail-in ballots. Whatever rookies get up to these days.
Lawrence Miller Scouting Graphic
[Image: YUJqERy.png]

RE: (S26) Ultimus Week - Buttersqauch101 - 01-05-2021

GM Pass

RE: (S26) Ultimus Week - xTri - 01-05-2021

T2 10) Describe your player and/or team’s journey through this latest season. What were the highlights? What were the lower points? What might you have done differently? What are your expectations for next season?

Man, this season was a huge one for my player, Taro Raimon. Coming into the season, Raimon was promoted to WR2 as Saba Donut heads into his twilight years. He started his first game with an extremely strong 128 reception yard game coupled with a TD in a 45-42 thriller against the Otters. This was the start of a breakout year for him. By the end of Week 4/5. Raimon has already surpassed his total reception yards from the previous season as a WR3. At this point of time, people started recognizing Raimon's skills and started to pick him up for their fantasy team. In the pre-season, only 1-2 users picked him up but slowly, more and more people picked him and he ended up with I believe to be at least top 7 most picked wide receiver. Week 8 was also another strong performance for Raimon with 133 reception yards and 1 TD in 5 catches. In the last regular season game for the Outlaws, Raimon ended his crazy season with yet another brilliant performance. He got 127 reception yards and 2 TDs to comeback against the Second Lines. In the end, Raimon ranks among wide receivers with the 6th highest reception yards and 2nd most touchdowns. Part of why Raimon has such a great season is because the AZ quarterback, Jay Cue, has also had a MVP-type season. He ended his season with the highest QB rating among other QBs and the Outlaws had arguably the best offense as well. Unfortunately, the Outlaws didn't make the playoffs as the ASFC ended with a 5-way tie for 1st. We got the short-end of the stick in the tiebreaker rules and were placed 5th in the division. The Outlaws had a pretty weak defense performance and coupled with some very unlucky losses, we could've made it in another universe. Now heading into the next season. Raimon has re-signed with the Outlaws and one of the contract clause was that he was to be WR1. The Outlaws will also be using their rookie QB, Charlemagne Cortez, and parting ways with Jay Cue. Now, I do not expect my player to have the same performance as I thought my player definitely overperformed plus with a different inexperienced QB. But I am definitely looking forward to see what Taro Raimon can bring next season and hopefully the Outlaws can get back to the playoffs. I'm also definitely looking forward to the award season this year and hopefully I win Breakout Player of the Year as well as possibly making the Pro Bowl squad.

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T3 18) Write about another sim league you are in and which parts of it you enjoy. If you are only in the ISFL, write about your ideas for a sim league with another sport.

My first sim league epxerience wasn't ISFL. I'm a baseball fan and I joined the Pro Baseball experience prior to joining ISFL. I really enjoyed my time in the PBE. The team that drafted me, the Death Valley Scorpions have one of the best people to hang out with and probably one of the best locker-rooms in the league. The sim engine is also a huge plus. I always like OOTP and when I compare it to the other engines like Draft Day Pro Sports, is miles better with much more functions. I always like to see my player's career stats on a page and OOTP's Index is probably the best of all sim engines that I have seen so far. I always enjoy the community as well. They have many community events playing other games like Skribblio and Aomung US where we can meet other people from other teams. The one I like the most is PBEO. It is a side group of users from the PBE that holds their own league where we do use OOTP traditionally and use their online league function to GM our own team in-game. I spend a lot of my team there and is probably my favourite aspect of PBE so far. All in all, both PBE and ISFL are great and hope both leagues prosper!

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T3 20) Pretend injuries are a thing in the ISFL and your team has had a lot of them lately – so many that your GM has asked you to play out of position. What position are they asking you to play and what about your player build will help you succeed in this role?

Oh man, everyone on the entire Arizona Outlaw squad tested positive for COVID except for Taro Raimon, And now the GM is forced to bring up some newbies to help fill the squad to ensure the team is playable for next week's game day. The dilemma is, there are too many wide receivers from their depth and not enough players in other positions. The GM and the coach asked me that since I'm the only player with major league experience to switch to another position that I am most comfortable with. Now I'm only 6'2 and only weight around 200 pounds, I will not play any defensive role at all. People will just blow past me and I will not be able to stop anyone at all. Offensive line as well, I bet the QB would be even more built than me and he would be able to protect himself better. Kicking and Punting is also out of the question since I never tried kicking, I'll just miss! The best role is probably Running Back. I'm already a fast runner with high speed and I have great agility. I bet I can get by the defense with my running ability. The only problem is being able to protect the ball which I might be below average. So yea, I will definitely switch to running-back.

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RE: (S26) Ultimus Week - Bandit239 - 01-06-2021

Tier 1 for 10 total, 800+ words

2) Tell us about your draft class. Is there anything that makes it special in comparison to other classes? Where did your fellow draftees land, how are they doing? Did anyone turn out to be an unexpected steal of that draft based on what you know today? Do you think anyone in your draft class will become a hall of famer? If you’re new to the league, how do you think your class will do? Where do you think people will get drafted to?

My draft class feels...small. i only know a handful of my fellow rookies well enough to actually wonder where they go or include their player in the excitement that I have for my own. I know the S26 class isnt really small, but I dont have time to visit every locker room and chat with everyone, i hardly have time to hang out in my own teams locker room or make a pit stop in the Locker room of a potential landing spot for the draft. So i know we have a lot of good players in this class that im going to miss, im just going to really talk about the players that come immediately to mind on my first pass. Out the gate I will discuss my fellow running backs. The three probably biggest names at the running back position are Hayes, myself and Savage. I feel like we all get along but there is an unspoken rivalry among us all trying to be the best rookie running back. Hayes won that battle and it wasnt close. Absolute animal of a running back. Hayes is also who i would pick as the steal of our dsfl draft. Created as a wide reciever, then switches to RB and absolutely dominates, finishing behind me by like 5 yards, but ahead of me by .5 yards per carry. Nuts. Savage has had a killer season himself, though a bit more under the radar because of the presence of forty two casting that big shadow over him. All three of us have been killing it all season and i expect each of us to go at least in the first two rounds, though it is hard to say because there are a lot more really good users in my class than i thought. One of those users is Numbers, eleven kendrick watts. An absolutely electric wider reciever. Who i believe will go at least in the top 3 of the ISFL draft. KC really did better in the DSFL draft season than our record would suggest. A trio of talent that is worthy of the first round in myself, watts, and farley who is in my opinion the best rookie offensive lineman of the year and should be taken in the first round at all costs. Defensively the big name that comes to mind is Tre Washington who i think is a waiver so is behind in tpe, but a great user who i see every time i go to the locker room. Definitely will be a solid user in the future. Drip Dad from Tijuana who was my running mate on edinborough in the prospect bowl is having a great season and is a really great user as far as i remember. There are some really good standouts in this class, but there are a lot of inactives, rocco is one i know for sure, and a bunch of others but that makes the standouts even that much brighter. In this class, as of today and stats from the DSFL, i think there are two standouts for the hall of fame. Hayes, and Eleven Kendrick Watts. Hayes will probably win rookie of the year this season, but will be challenged by watts who has a really solid case also. Watts also could win WROTY which in my opinion would be better than rookies of the year. The teo of them play really well, and are great users so i expect to see them go high in this draft and continue earning and playing well until the end. My opinion for a few of the rookies in the class and where they go, I think watts goes 1st overall to honolulu. I dont know if they need a wr, but watts is the clear number 1 overall in this class. I think I have a good chance to go to Baltimore if watts is off the board. We are both great prospects, at least im told I am. And were both in the war room at KC, interacting with a lot of the office in Baltimore through that. The running back need and my affiliation with the team are the only reason i see myself going here instead of hayes, who i believe goes off next and goes to philadelphia to replace the aging backs there. I think farley goes in the top 10 of the class, but i do not know who needs a lineman. Of the others i mentioned i think it depends on how the draft goes to see if they end up going in the first round or not. There are a lot of good defensive players in the class so its hard to say where they all go, but I think its safe to say that watts, hayes and (i frickin hope) myself get selected early on in this draft.

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RE: (S26) Ultimus Week - Goat_Whisperer - 01-06-2021

16) Your team has made it to the playoffs! Put together a pre-game playlist and explain how those songs will hype your players.


Tim Dog - Fuck Compton

Banging beat with a clear message - Yellowknife is not afraid to do whatever it takes to come out at the top, even if that means going against what is hot at the time.

Buck-o-Nine - Drink and Fight

A ballad about drinking and fighting, in my eyes the main point behind the song is to take one step at a time. Focus on one play, do not think about what happens fifteen minutes from now. Live in the moment basically. That is important in the game of football, need to be ready to play and I think that makes this song a good pre-game song.

XXXTENTACION - YuNg BrAtZ

A wild song that is just what the doctor ordered when trying to hype up the boys. I don't understand the lyrics, but hard to argue against the overall vibe.

Kanye West - Through The Wire

This is not maybe a hype song, but I would still say it has a place in every pre-game playlist as the song highlights the importance of determination and work ethic, no matter what happens, we will be victorious.

Baccara - Yes Sir, I Can Boogie

Feel good and a fun song, something that will help lift the spirits and bring a positive vibe into the locker-room. I would perhaps play this song first and then steadily keep going down the list towards more ''heavy'' songs that bring more of a ''ready to kill'' mentality out of the players. (250)


22) Your player has been paid to endorse a product/service. What is it? How do you endorse it?

Blago Kokot is a man who likes money. When a company called ''Cottonelle'' approached Kokot it was an easy decision, Kokot will promote the Cottonelle brand every chance he gets. Many have noticed that Kokot walks around while wearing a Cottonelle hat, nothing unusual about it, but speculation about whether Kokot's lust for money has gone too far as a hat that promotes a toilet paper brand does not go well with a suit that seems to be Kokot's outfit of choice nowadays.

Social media is a big part of the promoting process, Kokot posts at least two or three posts into his social media every week that clearly aims to promote Cottonelle, the products and company is visible despite the actual theme of the posts are something different. For example, last Wednesday Kokot posted a couple of pictures from his kitchen. He had replaced his curtains with specially made Cottonelle curtains that have the company logo printed on them. He also had multiple rolls of Cottonelle that he used to clean the kitchen.


Tacky and not so subtle, but if we believe the rumors about the agreed sum that Kokot gets paid for each social media posts - hey, I would not say no to thousands of dollars! (209)

25) How or where would you celebrate with your teammates after winning an Ultimus or Ultimini?

Covid makes things difficult, but that does not mean we would not be able to celebrate and have a good time. I think modern technology could be one way how we could be together and celebrate. Virtual Reality world with the VR glasses could offer some fun things to do. We could play some games or just ''party'' in some wild virtual reality club. Order food and drinks to our homes and in many ways do everything we would do normally.

Perhaps, we could even get the fans to join us and greet us, we could stream the whole thing and make it more of a community event. The fans have been watching and supporting us from their homes, only fair that we as a team join them in their homes. I imagine the fans would not mind playing some games and/or simply chatting with their favorite players for a bit.

Obviously, depending on the covid rules and how things go on from here can change a lot of things, but in my eyes getting together and celebrating somehow is the main thing about it all. Get together in a big and meaningful way to celebrate this magnificent achievement. What we actually do during the celebration does not matter to me that much. (212)

RE: (S26) Ultimus Week - Drizzy - 01-06-2021

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13) Write about your team’s biggest rivalry and what makes it so fierce. Is the competition founded in statistics and the team’s recent performance, or is it a rivalry that developed over time during the team’s history that would exist regardless of statistics?

I don't really know if it's fair to say that Sarasota has a rival but if I was pressed and had to pick one team to give it to I'd probably go with the Chicago Butchers. Over the last few seasons we've been on a kind of similar path, fighting for the top spot in the NSFC and through all of the games that we've played against each other it's been quite back and forth. I think for this season especially, us considering them as a rival came from them sending us home in the playoffs last season. It was a really rough to way for our season to end, so I think coming into this season we've had our eye on being able to beat them when we had the chance to. In the regular season games we played against them this season we were able to get something back on them too, winning the two games we played against them, both at home and on the road. I guess the most important meeting of the two teams is going to be played in tonight's sim. We once again finished close to each other in the standings this season and now we're going to be playing against each other gain in the NSFC Wildcard game. There's obviously a lot riding on it for both teams but whatever happens it's going to add another level on to the rivalry. I guess the Hahalua have been a team that joined the league at the same time as us so could be thought of as a rival as well, but I feel like we've been on two different paths so wouldn't really include them in the same conversation. I guess also them being in a different conference means we never really have that many games to play against them, so I feel like the Butchers definitely fit the bill a lot better. I'm excited to see how another chapter of the rivalry of the two teams goes on to play out, both rosters are talented and I'm sure that they're going to be neck and neck with each other for a long time still to come. Even though the Sailfish and the Butchers are two teams that are based a long way from each other, the fact that both have seen such similar results in the last few seasons and the fact that we always seem to be playing high stakes games against each other definitely makes for a fun rivalry.

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14) Choose a team or player to write about that isn’t your own. What did they do well in the last season? Have they shown any drastic improvements from previous years? What could they do better?

The player that I am going to be writing about is one of my good friends and one of the very best OL in the whole league, Simon Tremblay. Tremblay has been a member of the Philadelphia Liberty for a long time, having been drafted there in S21 and playing all of his seasons in the league with the team. The time that he's spent with them has been productive and I think that he's one of the best players at his position in the whole league. The Liberty are currently going through a rebuild so their roster as a whole isn't really in the spot where they would want it to be, but Simon is one of the veteran players that they have kept on the team and during this last season he's been very reliable. He's managed to put up 85 pancakes on the season, good for 6th best in the league and been about as reliable a presence protecting the quarterback as you could hope for, only allowing one sack on the whole season. I know this was disappointing for Tremblay however because I think up to this point he'd only allowed one sack in his whole ISFL career, so getting another one won't make him too happy but he still had a really good season. The thing that Tremblay did best was pancaking those pesky pass rushers, and on the whole I think he did a great job of showing why he's known as one of the best in the league. I think there should be a spot waiting for Tremblay in this season's Pro Bowl based on what he's been able to show us, and there's definitely no denying that he is one of the most inspirational and talented players in the whole ISFL. The only thing that I think Simon could do a bit better next season would be not allowing any sacks and maybe adding a couple more pancakes to his total so that he can be back contending for the OLotY award, but it was still a great season for him and one that I think is going to keep alive the very real prospect he has of becoming a HoF lineman by the time he retires. Tremblay is one of the league's best players on the field and personalities off it, and I hope we will see him return again in S27 with incredible numbers once again; defensive players up against him better watch out.

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RE: (S26) Ultimus Week - Crunk - 01-06-2021

Task 4

I very much appreciate the opportunity to write about something that has tortured me, as a GM, throughout this season - the sim luck of my Arizona Outlaws.

I hope this would be known, but the Arizona Outlaws finished in a 5-way tiebreaker atop the ASFC, coming in fifth due to the cascading head-to-head rules (though we were confident we were eliminated a week before due to conference record). Five teams in the conference had nine wins. I will be using this UW task to explain clearly and statistically why Arizona should have had 10 wins, and dropping some sim knowledge that is soon to be out of date.

Let’s start with personnel - Arizona were stronger than the team that finished the playoffs last year.

Jay Cue regressed from around 1400 TPE last season to approximately 1050 this season, but he got better. Most people would quickly draw the conclusion that Cue’s MVP-level play this season was the result of luck, and there is always an element of that, but the truth is that a 1050 TPE Game Manager QB with a 79 Speed build is worth around 3-4% more to a team’s win rate than a maxed Mobile QB (which Cue was previously). I tested this extensively before he made the switch. Interestingly, my testing also showed that Mobile QB was actually the best archetype besides the 79 Speed cheese when maxed out. Cue was robbed of being the GOAT by Wolverine and their programming.

Another important area of improvement was at cornerback. Zamir Kehla retired and was replaced by safety Wesley Eriksen. A safety playing cornerback - how could that be an upgrade? Well, their respective levels of TPE through Seasons 25 (Kehla) and 26 (Eriksen) were roughly the same, but the real answer lies in archetypes. The difference between Eriksen’s Center Fielder archetype and Kehla’s Man-to-Man archetype are as follows:

Strength +5
Tackling +5
Hands +5
Agility -5

The safety archetype sacrifices 5 Agility for 5 points in three other stats that are highly valuable to a cornerback. It pretty much dominates it. Given they both had these stats maxed all season, this was a second upgrade.

The losses of Julio Jones and Mathias Hanyadi were mitigated by Mattress Cadaire and Darren Pama (who was very productive at lower TPE) respectively, and Heath Evans was replaced by creative depth chart work. In total, these “downgrades” summed to far less of a reduction in win rate than the improvement from the aforementioned upgrades. Mason Gillion and L’Gazzy Burfict coming in for Atlas Quin were more or less a scratch, with Gillion and Burfict certain to be the superior options going forward.

Also, Arizona only had a few players in regression. Everyone else improved. In short - Arizona were an objectively better team than the one that finished 9-7 and second in the ASFC last season.

Was that improvement worth a crucial tenth win, though? Let’s have a look at our sim testing results, with our win percentage and the actual result of the game:

1 OCO 66% L
2 NYS 48% L
3 NOLA 76% L
4 @ SJS 55% W
5 HON 79% W
6 SAR 70% L
7 @AUS 51% L
8 @PHI 64% W
9 BAL 79% W
10 @HON 54% W
11 @OCO 36% L
12 @YKW 43% W
13 SJS 76% W
14 NYS 75% L
15 AUS 76% W
16 @NOLA 46% W

Now, using these to draw conclusions in isolation is problematic. These were our sim test results from prior to each game, not the actual win probabilities. Of course the opposition teams are sim testing too, which will usually shift these probabilities downwards. From experience, I know that the average shift is around 3% downwards, so all the analysis from this point forward will be based on the above, reduced by 3%. I could load up all the game files and find out the real win rates after the fact but I don’t have the inclination. 3% will do as an assumption. (Incidentally, after the fact simming was about 95% of the hidden workings of my old CRUNC Power Rankings system, which proved disappointingly controversial in certain low-win-rate circles.)

Let’s start with Expected Wins. Basically, we take a win probability and give exactly that number of wins, and add it up through the season. So that 63% against Orange County in game one would be worth 0.63 wins, and so on. If we add all those up for the Outlaws’ season, we get 9.46 wins.

Should that number round up to 10? Well, yes, for two reasons. Firstly, Arizona outperformed 9 wins, and 10 is the next option going upwards, but that’s a little bit flawed. The second and real reason is that better teams tend to outperform their expected win total, and worse teams tend to underperform. Allow me to explain.

Take two games for a team with a 80% win rate. They’ll have an expected win total of 1.6, but they’ll get two wins from those games 64% of the time, outperforming their expected win rate.

The above is just an illustrative example, not conclusive proof (don’t try it with a 70% win rate) that is intended to show the characteristics of skewed data. Without going too deep into means, medians and the like, the skew of a teams expected win total means that 9.46 wins over a 16 game season will usually be outperformed. To put it another way: Arizona should have had 10 wins.

But enough about hypothetical win percentages, let’s look at what happened.

Arizona had a +91 point differential on the season
Arizona had an average margin of victory of 15.8 (over two scores)
Arizona had an average margin of defeat of 5.6 (less than one score)
Of Arizona’s 7 losses, 5 were by 7 points or less (a one score game being widely held as an unreliable measure of skill difference, a “coin flip” if you like)
In the 7 Arizona games this season that had a winning margin of 7 points or less, they won only 2.

That’s right, we went 2 out of 7 on coin flips.

Sim luck robbed a top tier team of a mere shot at the playoffs, and robbed the iconic Jay Cue of his last shot at playoff success.

But hey, we go again. Sim gonna sim.