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+---- Thread: *Fitz v Biz, S11 (/showthread.php?tid=11041)
*Fitz v Biz, S11 - kckolbe - 11-15-2018
The rivalry update is back! @Molarpistols
Completions:
Showbiz: 348
Fitzpatrick: 323
After 14 games, both QBs were fairly comparable in completions, with Showbiz average about 1.8 completions over Fitzpatrick per game. Fitzpatrick had the higher completion rate, but I attribute that more to having targets who could catch. Showbiz sent considerable targets to Garden, Broxton, Adams, and Zephyrous, who often weren’t able to convert.
Passing Yards:
Showbiz: 4094
Fitzpatrick: 3874
An area both QBs improved on was yards per completion. For Showbiz, the return of Atwell and Crush (for all 14 games this time) meant just so many mid-field completions going for touchdowns, and he heavily invested into accuracy to make sure he got those passes to them. For Fitz, improved mobility meant more time for his receivers to run deep routes. Both QBs stepped up big here, but did it in different ways.
Touchdowns:
Showbiz: 30
Fitzpatrick: 30
This is glorious. Fitzpatrick held the lead for most of the season, but Showbiz had 2 separate 5 TD games in the final stretch, to include a huge win over Colorado in Week 14, resulting in a tie (that also meant a tie for league-high). It’s probably important to note that those touchdowns were earned very differently. Showbiz got the lion’s share of his TDs from outside the red zone, whereas Fitzpatrick got his from inside the 10. Orange County, once inside, generally relied on the capable combo of Adams and Zephyrous, whereas Mackworthy had finally regressed to the point of not getting it done, forcing red zone passes and inflating Fitzpatrick’s TD count. However, it’s also worth noting that Fitz’s mobility suits him well in those situations, as he is better able to avoid goal line blitzes and get the pass off.
Interceptions:
Showbiz: 15
Fitzpatrick: 9
I talked about this a fair bit at the mid-season assessment, but Showbiz found himself targeting receivers who couldn’t…receive. After Week 8, I pointed out that 7 of Showbiz’s 11 interceptions were targeting Adams or Zephyrous, with 0 to Crush. The trade-off between these two was that Showbiz had the deadlier weapons whereas Fitz had the more reliable ones. I think we were all surprised at what a difference that made.
Rushing Yards:
Showbiz: 50 (3.57/attempt)
Fitzpatrick: 185 (3.49/attempt)
I had to put the yards per carry, because this was a big surprise. If there was one area where everyone seemed in agreement that Fitz had the advantage, it was as a rusher. This I can only attribute to game-planning. Teams have figured out that, in Season 10, the Outlaws did a lot more damage on the ground than through the air. For Orange County, it was more the opposite. Also, I should point out that 40% of Showbiz’s rushing yards came on one carry, and that he had 3 fumbles to Fitz’s 1.
Sacks:
Showbiz: 46
Fitzpatrick: 36
10 more sacks may seem significant, but on 83 more pass plays…not really. Last year Fitz had the advantage 39 to 65, so Showbiz really made big strides, and got a lot better at getting rid of the ball (which likely also contributed to his lower completion percentage, something I hadn’t thought about).
TANY/A:
Showbiz: 5.5
Fitzpatrick: 6.3
Both QBs showed comparable improvement over last year, and both started out relatively low in yards before taking on a larger role in the second half of the season. For Showbiz, his primary improvement came from being able to air it out deep without committing turnovers, and for Fitz it showed up in increasing his passing volume (somewhat) while keeping down sacks.
Offensive System:
Showbiz: It took over half the season to find him, but Carlito Crush was a nightmare over the last 6 games. Tegan Atwell was consistently dangerous all season and has now had back to back years of performing as the WR1 when expected to be #2. The improvement of Adams and Zephyrous caused them to emerge as a real threat, and likely contributed to Showbiz having more room over the top late season.
Fitzpatrick: After a breakout season in S10, Squanch somehow broke out again, finishing third in receiving yards and pulling in 11 touchdowns. He accounted for about 1/3 of Arizona’s passing success. Balthazar Crindy, as promised, emerged as a viable receiving threat, improving from 1 TD in S10 to 5 in S11, and also increased his receptions and yardage.
The Split (for @speculadora):
It would be extremely unfair to talk about Showbiz without talking about the insane difference between his first 8 games and his last 6.
First 8: 183/345, 2012 yards, 20 sacks, 11 TD, 11 INT, 11 rushes for 49 yards, 3 fumbles, 4.21 TANY/A
Last 6: 165/271, 2082 yards, 26 sacks, 19 TD, 4 INT, 3 rushes for 1 yard, 0 fumbles, 7.05 TANY/A
You can see some significant differences in both scheme and success. Based on the decrease in rush attempts, I can tell they ran less spread, which not only eliminated a lot of mediocre rushing gains, but also eliminated fumbles, which resulted in negative adjusted yards per carry. His sack percentage increased, which I think was more luck, but it likely also meant longer routes (and fewer “check-downs” to Adams and Zephyrous). That would be consistent with his heavily improved yards per completion. However, what likely caught your eye was the 19 TD to 4 INT, which would have been the best ratio in the league had he maintained it all year. In fairness, he did have an easier final 6 schedule, but this was still an extraordinary improvement that bodes well for the future.
S12 Prediction:
Showbiz: Crush and Atwell will both begin regression, but both will also easily still be good enough to play their roles at starter level. I don’t think this will be a significant problem. Josh Garden will be replaced by Sunnycursed, which is more of an upgrade than the combined regression of his 1 and 2. Zephyrous and Adams will only improve more as receivers and be responsible for far fewer interceptions. Broxton should see a negligible improvement as well from increased endurance, should he continue playing both sides (which I expect). Combined with the improvements Showbiz has made and will continue to make, I would expect somewhere between 6.2 and 6.7 for S12, with the bulk of his improvement coming from reduced turnovers.
Fitzpatrick: Squanch is continuing to improve, as is Crindy, who should see another significant increase in yardage. Unfortunately, Browning, Morris, Wachter, and Booter all regress. Fitz’s deep stable of reliable receivers was a huge part of his efficiency. Ideally, Arizona is able to pick up another WR in the offseason, and there are a couple currently available. Picking up anyone to replace Browning, allowing him to move to WR3, would result in a significant increase in production, and only a mild increase in efficiency. The biggest wild card is the addition of Shady, who will replace Mackworthy and re-launch the ground game Arizona used to be known for. While this will take considerable pressure off of Fitzpatrick, it also means that he may see a decrease in red zone TDs. With all those variables, he is harder to nail down, but I would range him from 6.5 to 7.0.