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*Adam S' Real Mock Draft - AdamS - 11-27-2018
Yes, I'm fully aware I did one of these already, but as Dick Wizardry. Dick Wizardry is an idiot. A lot of fun to play, but not really who you want drafting for you. So what I'm gonna do here is provide my many seasons of expertise to trying to suss out what the draft will actually look like and why. Hopefully this will provide some assistance for our newer members making their mock drafts. And also hopefully I do a good enough job that I get not very subtle messages from HO members asking me what GMs I talked to, since by this point, at minimum the 1st round has been drafted. On that note, a quick bit of info for some of you newer folks. The GMs actually started the draft today, and it will be presented on Friday. They don't do it live because this system is better. Except when somebody spills the beans on purpose or accident. Or when somebody just guesses really well. Now, it also bears noting that this entire list could be shot to hell even before I write this based on trades we don't know about, agreements with players or prospects for position changes, callups I've forgotten about, or strategic moves no one is currently expecting. The callups I forgot about being the most likely in my case. Anyway, caveats in place, let's do this.
#1 San Jose Sabercats
Major Needs: D-Line, Secondary
This team is shaping up on offense with a solid core. They're light on Tight End but I'm sure they're okay with that for the moment. It's not a first round need this season and the additional offensive weapon I thought they'd take for this purpose has stepped back instead. They'd also like to tighten up their LB corps but its also less important. It's worth noting that there are some other factors to consider. The team is picking up a GM player in round 2 that is a safety. With no additional 2nd rounder that I know, this essentially locks them into picking up their biggest need. So while talent along the d-line is the highest it's been in a while, they can't actually step back and assume one will be there later. So they'll choose between these two. Many have assumed Riposte to be the obvious #1 pick. A high active member with a top 5 TPE count. I think that's wrong. Luke Smyles fills the d-line role quite nicely, will earn very well, and most importantly is a knock quantity. He was a Sabercat in his previous incarnation and the Cats have shown with the last few drafts that they love bringing back their former handlers and/or recreates in general.
Best Prospects: Freezer Riposte-DT (200+ TPE), Luke Smyles-DE (175+ TPE)
The Pick:
Luke Smyles
Defensive End
#2 Baltimore Hawks
Major Needs: Quarterback, Secondary, Linebacker
One of the few teams I suspect that doesn't NEED-NEED defensive line help. They'll be picking up Linebacker help with their GM player in round 2 so that's a bit of a load off. And if we're being shrewd, we can point out that they don't need to worry about a QB pick right away because no one else needs one. So the little available talent is basically waiting for Baltimore instead of Baltimore having to fight for it. And while they've got a Safety ready to come up from DSFL, they can always use more help. So that means secondary. This is where you'll probably notice a few talented secondary players aren't even listed. That's because I don't need to. This is the pick. Hornbacher is a top earner, a recreate, someone the GM has worked with multiple times in DSFL, HO, GM'ing, and is literally in school for the profession the GM has. Home run, 3 Pointer, Ace on the river. Pack it up. This pick is done. It's the most no brainer choice in the entire draft until later when Baltimore picks up their next QB because no one else needed him. Baltimore also has the luxury no one else does in this draft. A pick later in the 1st round. They can make their decisions at their leisure for that pick and hit the big pick of need here.
Best Prospects: Axel Hornbacher-S (200+ TPE)
The Pick:
Axel Hornbacher
Safety
#3 Arizona Outlaws
Major Needs: CB, WR, LB
The Outlaw defense has less holes at the front and back than most teams at this point. They still need more help in the secondary though. They have a QB hitting the beginning of his prime but a massive dropoff in good targets once you get past Crindy and Squanch. LB is a mixed bag. There are enough targets available at the positions they covet that it's basically up to who they think fits the best. You may note I ignored the writing of a war room member because he's probably lying. It's what you do. You may also note I added myself to the list out of position despite the team having an RB it likes. Why? Because I have a player built to be moved around successfully. And also because a major member of the team wanted to steer people away from the possibility. Luckily for the Outlaws, their best options are still on the board. Do you go for the best WR who ever did it in a new WR? The only handler to win an offensive player and defensive player of the year award (I think)? A known entity at a position of relative shallowness in CB? Or a versatile offensive weapon handled by a former team member? This is one of the more interesting ones because the Outlaws have to feel like they're right at the cusp of challenging in the ASFC. The answer? The safe route. Take the CB and pick up another offensive threat in round 2, as that side of prospects is much deeper.
Best Prospects: Errol Maddox-WR (250+ TPE), James Bishop-WR (225+ TPE), Hike Mughes-CB (175+ TPE), Dick Wizardry-RB (200+ TPE)
The Pick:
Hike Mughes
Cornerback
#4 Philadelphia Liberty
Major Needs: D-line, LB, Secondary, TE
The Liberty are a young team that has pieces everywhere, but not quite the complete puzzle yet. The offense has enough talent to be good but not great just yet. Enough not to be an immediate concern since they can adequately cover their bases The secondary is okay enough to not be the first concern. Linebacker is a worry of course. D-Line is set up better than average but could still use firepower. Realistically, they're in great position to just take the best defender available. Which works out because the best defender available is available still. The Liberty hit the perfect moment due to team needs ahead of them and San Jose's preferences on drafting. And even if San Jose somehow goes out of character and picks up Riposte there, Philly is perfectly happy to take the guy they didn't. You could say they'd be...all Smyles. I don't think it's gonna happen though, and thus Philly will skip merrily up to the draft podium with this pick.
Best Prospects: Freezer Riposte-DT (200+ TPE), Luke Smyles-DE (175+ TPE)
The Pick:
Freezer Riposte
Defensive Tackle
#5 Colorado Yeti
Major Needs: Almost Everything
The Yeti have become one of the oldest teams in the league, if not the oldest. They have very little fresh talent on their squad and almost none of it has panned out. Virtually all of their team's contributions come from players who hit regression in the next 2 seasons. This team is in really bad shape and is about to fall off a cliff unless the GMs pull a major miracle in their 2nd season in charge. A series of truly awful drafts and the loss of several key players through trade or retirements have left them depleted to a point that I'm basically repeating myself to get the point across. Seriously. Look at that roster. One player drafted between S7 and now that's over 500 TPE. This team is going to take any and everyone it can get its hands on if they think that player will stick around and be active. And this team came a hair's breadth from having home field advantage in the NSFC. With that roster. ATTENTION AWARD VOTERS. The 1st year GMs who got handed this roster after their best player left did this. I don't know what else you need to give them that award. In the meantime, they'll look through the prospects available and pick the best that's on the board. Which is anyone with good TPE that seems like someone who'd still be on the team in a few seasons. Don't be shocked if they're a little cautious about who they grab though. This is easily the most difficult pick t predict thus far. But in the end, I'm guessing they take a familiar face with a big headstart in TPE who can keep their offense afloat while they try to bolster the defense later.
Best Prospects: Enough people that I'm not listing them
The Pick:
Errol Maddox
Wide Receiver
#6 Orange County Otters
Major Needs: D-Line, LB, TE
Well, I've got good news for the Otters. Things have worked out pretty well for them to fill their needs. They have a really good draft class that fits the positional needs they have. They're bringing up one of the few callups I remember at WR this season. They have a solid enough offense, minus TE, which they essentially do not and have never given a real shit about. So the question is, what riches do they pluck from the spoils available? Well, they're a team that has always valued fit over specifics of position and they're not afraid to go outside the box at times. They feel exactly 0 pressure to succeed at any given moment and it frees them greatly. Add in an offense that is poised to be top tier anyway and honestly, given all these factors, they're the team I'd most expect to trade back here into the 2nd. There's so much talent in this draft class that they could just stockpile for later and pick up some good prospects then. But let's assume they don't. From here they'll mostly just see who's left that's good.
Best Prospects: Sam Garrad-DT (200+ TPE), Grayson Kuusela-DE, (150+ TPE), Thorian Skarsgard-LB (150+ TPE), Logan Lejune-LB (150+ TPE)
The Pick:
Sam Garrad
Defensive Tackle
#7 Baltimore Hawks
Major Needs: Same as Earlier
When we last left our Hawks, they'd picked up Alex Hornbacher. So what happens now? They take the QB. Because not taking him at #2 is a riskless move. Leaving him wide open between now and their 3rd round pick though is a much bigger risk. There are teams who could be eyeing the QB after the 1st round. Colorado, New Orleans, and Yellowknife have QBs who are somehwere between starting their downslide to old as fuck and not really a quarterback to begin with. God....the poor Yeti. Anyway, with the team's running game in much better position via prior trade and their defense bolstered with the #2 pick, the 2nd round GM Linebacker, and the callup of Schneider, the team calls it's shot on QB. Oh..and that running back they traded for? One of this pick's close friends IRL.
Best Prospects: Luke Boechler-QB (200+ TPE)
The Pick:
Luke Boechler
Quarterback
#8 New Orleans Second Line
Major Needs: RB, LB, D-Line, Secondary
Another team getting long in the tooth, the defending champions need to continue the infusion of youth. Now, that is already happening a little as DSFL callups should be stepping in at WR and CB, but they need more. the RB position just opened up with the retirement of Darren Smallwood, and that defense still needs rebuilding. Luckily, it's a good draft for all of the above. The only question for New Orleans at this point is, which of these positions is going to be the most depleted by the time their round 3 pick comes around? Don't forget, this team has no round 2 pick. The prospects are still good here though. No RBs have been taken yet and there are still several people available at each level of the defense. The traditional wisdom would have them looking in my direction but let's think about that. If you're Nola, do you shy away from someone who just stepped down from team management and prior to that had openly applied to other GM jobs? You could bank on the wide availability of RBs in what is probably the most talented class of them in a long while. Most teams don't need them and one of the big three could very well slip to round 3. And that's not even all of them. If you don't think so, just remember that last season in a very big WR class Yulic Nagasawa went very late as a very well known quantity who was active as hell. The team is also in win now mode as it still has a large portion of a championship winning core and the best QB in the NSFL. So what do you do? Well, the GM has a history in multiple leagues of going for the big move to win. So in theory, that's what he does here. Though it could completely go another direction.
Best Prospects: Dick Wizardry-RB (200+ TPE), Aksel Danielsson-RB (200+ TPE), Thorian Skarsgard-LB (150+ TPE), Logan Lejune-LB (150+ TPE), Grayson Kuusela-DE, (150+ TPE)
The Pick:
Dick Wizardry
Running Back
Well, there it is. The mock draft I'll be handing in. You're more than welcome to disagree or point out where I was wrong. There are multiple logical directions teams can go and they don't even always do that. Thank sweet baby Jesus we don't have to do a 2nd round mock as well because who the hell knows what kind of chaos that shit is going to turn into. In the meantime, feel free to leave any constructive commentary for discussion. Note of warning to any and all GMs. I'm mostly not going to believe you no matter what you say, but you're welcome to come muddy the waters of course.
*Adam S' Real Mock Draft - 37thchamber - 11-27-2018
Little did Adam know, 37thchamber was using the mock draft as a big board :eyes:
*Adam S' Real Mock Draft - iamslm22 - 11-27-2018
We switched Gambino to QB, just an FYI.
*Adam S' Real Mock Draft - AdamS - 11-27-2018
good call. Meaning you need someone else for that #7 slot.
for anyone using this as a mock draft primer....I'd switch in Grayson Kuusela at the #7
*Adam S' Real Mock Draft - Ben - 11-27-2018
I'm gunna ask to not be in the war room this season and use this as my mock
*Adam S' Real Mock Draft - PDXBaller - 11-27-2018
This season's mock draft TPE average is going to be so bad...
*Adam S' Real Mock Draft - manicmav36 - 11-27-2018
No Bishop in the first round?
*Adam S' Real Mock Draft - JSS - 11-27-2018
go danielsson
*Adam S' Real Mock Draft - Bwestfield - 11-27-2018
Lots of talent in this draft.
*Adam S' Real Mock Draft - infinitempg - 11-27-2018
(11-27-2018, 05:31 AM)AdamS Wrote:ATTENTION AWARD VOTERS. The 1st year GMs who got handed this roster after their best player left did this. I don't know what else you need to give them that award.
Not saying I don’t appreciate this, but I’m going to be putting out an article soon that happens to show why we don’t deserve the award