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+---- Thread: *S12 QB Fantasy Rankings (/showthread.php?tid=11243)
*S12 QB Fantasy Rankings - kckolbe - 12-06-2018
Well, we are finally nearing the end of the offseason, so I am back again with QB Fantasy Rankings. There have been some really big changes from last year, once again seeing a QB change teams, and, as has been tradition, a new QB entering the league. Thus far, the league has seen at least one new QB every single season. I really thought that this season would break that streak, and that Yellowknife was going to keep Pennington, draft Boechler, and just wait until Boechler was ready, but instead they traded for Applehort and Baltimore had Gambino go QB. My QB spreadsheet is starting to get ridiculous.
Before I begin, let me say that there is not a single first or second year QB this season, nor is there any QB deep into regression (or in regression at all). In terms of flat out ability, this is the closest QBs have been since the S2.
#8: Joliet Christ – San Jose SaberCats
I don’t think anyone is too surprised by this spot on the list. Christ struggled significantly in S11, though it should be noted that he was still almost half a yard per play better than Pennington was in S9 (both of their second seasons post-draft). This is more a reflection on the team, especially the offense, as a whole than just the QB. While Christ will assuredly see improvement due to his own growth, the offense around him will be little different than last year, as San Jose had to draft defense heavily. By total TPE, Christ has the worst receivers in the league, though in reality, he may be better off than it looks. Neither Oles nor Flash make for an intimidating #1 receiver, but they are both reliable targets and more than adequate for top roles. Brannigan may be lacking as a blocker, but he has consistently been a reliable receiver. Finally, recently acquired TE Jorel Tuck could very well be called up to work in the slot, which means great things for RB Canton, so expect Christ’s TDs to go up considerably, and his sacks to decrease from the combination of extra blocking and improved mobility, the latter of which is still his biggest weakness as a QB. Despite being the clear #8 QB on the list, I want to stress that it is very possible to win your fantasy group with him should you choose him #6. There just isn’t a lot of drop off, especially now that SJS has a pretty deep secondary.
#7: Adriana Falconi – Philadelphia Liberty
Once again, I doubt there is much surprise. Falconi was only slightly more efficient than Christ in S11, and a lot of that efficiency came from a lower sack rate, which doesn’t show up as directly in fantasy points, but the biggest difference is in the composition of their offense. The Liberty have an almost average passing offense, with Carter Bush a clear WR1, and Jordan Von Matt just barely below league average for a WR2. Felix Hasselhoff slightly exceeds WR3 averages as well, leaving Roger Batoff as the odd man out. He will most likely slot in at TE, where he will undeniably struggle, but this is still a decent offense to gameplan on. Marquise Brown should, once again, break 1500 yards rushing, leading to plenty of easy first downs and trips to the red zone, though I expect he’ll take plenty of those TDs for himself as well. Speaking of Brown, it should definitely be noted that not only will he be a fantastic rusher, but that he is now a capable pass catcher as well. I should note that last season’s performances ended up being the tiebreaker between the two, as their offenses seem to be of comparable strength. The acquisitions of Sam Hardwick, Krispy Kreme, and Fast Boija will likely be non-factors this year as I expect them to stay in the DSFL.
#6: Micycle McCormick – Colorado Yeti
Just as Christ and Falconi were close, McCormick and Applehort were extremely close as well. Them being close in general isn’t surprising (as they were only 7 TPE apart as QBs), but them being ranked 6th and 5th most certainly was, and hopefully demonstrates how close the league is passing ability. Ultimately, I ranked McCormick lower, as outside of Howard Miller, McCormick’s options are dreadful. Their first round pick of James Bishop instantly catapults him to the spot of #2 receiver on the team, and a cheap trade for John Wachter makes him the #3. Add in Alvin Chipmunk, and 3 of McCormick’s top 4 receivers fall below the league average mark for a #4 receiver. Rylan Wright, drafted in the second round, will like be called up as depth and eventual replacement for Wachter, so McCormick will have more depth than last year. McCormick is a solid QB, 2nd in TPE among passers, and now built very well, but once Miller hits 100 yards, the offense just gives him close to nothing to work with. Unfortunately, despite lack of options, McCormick will be passing the ball a lot, as the Colorado defense is still worst in the league by a considerable margin, and McCormick the only QB to not play them. Expect a lot of interceptions.
#5: Ryan Applehort – Yellowknife Wraiths
A change at QB has Yellowknife looking a lot more aggressive, but it isn’t that Pennington was bad at throwing the ball so much as having had no one to throw to. By moving Pennington to WR, Parker will be able to work as WR2 instead of being the only receiver on the team. In addition, the Wraiths gave up basically nothing in acquiring Budda Browning, and now have 3 receivers who are all better than their best receiver last year, plus a better QB throwing to them. Their loss of Antonio Summer seems to be countered by the addition of Dick Wizardry, who will likely take over Summer’s hybrid role. Expect Smallwood-Chess to possibly do the same, only in a more limited fashion, making Carrasco a very risky pick. As of the recent Yellowknife/San Jose trade, the Wraiths boast an only slightly better defense than Colorado.
#4: Borkus Maximus III – New Orleans Second Line
Without a doubt, Maximus is the best QB in the league. Hell, he’s a full season ahead of Applehort and McCormick in TPE, the two next-closest. Unfortunately, he’s also past the point in his career where he really needs that TPE. Just like I mentioned that 600 TPE is easily enough for a WR1 to shine (Squanch was the #3 receiver in the league with under 600), somewhere between 850 and 900 seems to be a decent mark where a QB is good enough to be the best in the right system (the average TPE for QBs right now is 810). Unfortunately, Maximus doesn’t have the right system. Outside of a beast at WR1 with Ultimus MVP Fyodorovich, his next-best receiver is TE Yobanna, meaning that Maximus, like McCormick, has 3 of 4 receivers under the #4 receiver average (the other two being DiMirio and Halvorsen). It may very well end up being 4 of 5, if the team calls up newly acquired WR Devon Baxter, selected with the 40th pick, but I am not expecting that. If there is one thing we can count on, though, it is that Maximus will still be driving the offense, likely leading the league in rushing attempts. It seems there is a visible drop off between the top 3 and bottom 5.
#3: Gus Showbiz – Orange County Otters
This should be Showbiz’s best season so far, and by a fairly decent margin. Oddly, it comes on the heels of his top 2 receivers beginning regression, though both are still well above the threshold to excel. However, the addition of Sunnycursed, who spent last season in the DSFL, will be a significant upgrade over Garden, and Zephyrous is starting to look like a real TE. In addition, he also has the option of adding Tommy Helanen as depth, which seems to be the plan. The biggest thing driving this jump to the top 3, however, is Showbiz’s own evolution. A little over midway through S11, he emerged as a legit franchise QB, and this year, with 4 viable targets to throw to, plus a solid pass-catching RB, he seems poised to continue that performance. I will point out that his own TPE is holding him back a bit, as he is only 6th highest among QBs, but with the top WR duo in the league, some depth that won’t result in instant interceptions, and more than adequate throwing ability, I expect he’ll contend as a top 3 QB.
#2: Kevin Fitzpatrick – Arizona Outlaws
This is the first time I’ve dared rank myself above Showbiz, but I think it’s finally time to accept that the Outlaws QB is legit. After finishing second for QB of the Year, it seems most of the league agrees (even *I* didn’t think I was second-best). With Willie and Squanch on the outside, already this is a dangerous passing offense, but Crindy has also emerged as a dangerous red zone target, hauling in 5 TDs. What’s most intriguing, however, are the options after that. Despite trading away Browning and Wachter, Arizona still has TE Moore and WR LaMellana at 250 TPE each, and drafted Asipi, whose S12 role appears similar to that of Antonio Summer, serving as a backup RB while also lining up as a WR, only with a bit less volume. The only downside from last year is due to the call-up of Slim Shady, who is a threat to take away a lot of short range TDs as well as keep passing volume below average. Speaking of rushing, however, Fitzpatrick is one of 2 QBs who might challenge for most rushing yards by a QB this season, which should make up for his underwhelming passing volume.
#1: Childish Gambino – Baltimore Hawks
With the retirement of Asipi, I never thought the Hawks would be so associated with “Childish,” but I guess some things never change. That said, Baltimore’s offense is amazingly dangerous this year. Their receivers have the highest combined TPE of all teams. Valentine, Nagasawa, L’Alto, and Harp are so good that #2 draft pick Maddox will likely spend the year in the DSFL. The dual threat of Summer and Taylor should be enough to keep defenses from getting aggressive, freeing up the passing game considerably. Naturally, Gambino’s below-average TPE is a concern, but I am confident his build, which was not significantly hindered by his previous position, is more than adequate given the offense around him. The only real downside is that I expect relatively low volume. With two solid RBs and great blocking, I wouldn’t air it out unless up against a strong front 7, which not many teams boast. I say two solid RBs only because I expect Danielsson to spend one more year in the DSFL before being called up to replace Taylor. Gambino’s volume may not be ideal, but he should have little issue finding the end zone.
*S12 QB Fantasy Rankings - iamslm22 - 12-06-2018
Interesting! I haven't looked super closely, but it's surprising to hear that you think Gambino is going to be the number 1 fantasy QB. I have to say, that if he is teams better watch out.
*S12 QB Fantasy Rankings - DeathOnReddit - 12-06-2018
(12-06-2018, 11:04 AM)kckolbe Wrote:#1: Childish Gambino – Baltimore Hawks
With the retirement of Asipi, I never thought the Hawks would be so associated with “Childish,” but I guess some things never change.
hey im on ur team now dumbo stop roasting me
*S12 QB Fantasy Rankings - speculadora - 12-06-2018
just to kind of expound on a point here, Showbiz's last 6 games: 165/271, 2082 yards, 19 TD, 4 INT. That's an average game of 27.5/45.2, 347 yards, 3.2 TD, 0.8 INT. Prorated over a full season his line would be 385/632, 4858 yards, 44 TD, 9 INT.
*S12 QB Fantasy Rankings - kckolbe - 12-06-2018
(12-06-2018, 09:16 AM)iamslm22 Wrote:Interesting! I haven't looked super closely, but it's surprising to hear that you think Gambino is going to be the number 1 fantasy QB. I have to say, that if he is teams better watch out.
Eh, don't be that surprised. He has only a marginally better chance of being #1 than Showbiz does. The grouping this year is ridiculous. The QBs with the volume are going to be inefficient, and the ones with efficiency won't have much volume. In general, I defaulted to which QBs I expected the best TD:INT ratio from.
*S12 QB Fantasy Rankings - kckolbe - 12-06-2018
(12-06-2018, 09:35 AM)speculadora Wrote:just to kind of expound on a point here, Showbiz's last 6 games: 165/271, 2082 yards, 19 TD, 4 INT. That's an average game of 27.5/45.2, 347 yards, 3.2 TD, 0.8 INT. Prorated over a full season his line would be 385/632, 4858 yards, 44 TD, 9 INT.
Yeah, it was an amazing run, but it wasn't that bad a schedule he played those last 6 games, and his top 2 WRs have regressed since then. I do think that of the top 3, he'll have the most volume. I wouldn't call anyone foolish for picking him first among QBs.
*S12 QB Fantasy Rankings - kckolbe - 12-06-2018
(12-06-2018, 09:24 AM)DeathOnReddit Wrote:hey im on ur team now dumbo stop roasting me
Old habits, my bad.
*S12 QB Fantasy Rankings - Muford - 12-06-2018
Interesting read overall, and I quite enjoyed it.
Oles going into the season at 700+ TPE and Leafs at 650+, I would easily say isn’t the worst WR group in the league. Throw in at the slot Orosz/Justice/Er/Zapp depending and I think the offensive load here in SJS is better off than you think.
Keep it up.
*S12 QB Fantasy Rankings - Beaver - 12-06-2018
(12-06-2018, 12:35 PM)speculadora Wrote:just to kind of expound on a point here, Showbiz's last 6 games: 165/271, 2082 yards, 19 TD, 4 INT. That's an average game of 27.5/45.2, 347 yards, 3.2 TD, 0.8 INT. Prorated over a full season his line would be 385/632, 4858 yards, 44 TD, 9 INT.Well, that's a good point but you're forgetting a game if you're trying to show growth.
Last 7: 191/317, 2350 yards, 20 TDs, 6 INTs.
Schedule:
vs NOLA
vs PHI
@ BAL
vs YKW
@ ARI
@ COL
@ NOLA
Prorated: 382/634, 4700, 40 TDs, 12 INTs. Probably a bit more when adjusting for strength of schedule.
284 fantasy points which would've placed him 5th last season and barely behind Borkus among QBs.
*S12 QB Fantasy Rankings - kckolbe - 12-06-2018
(12-06-2018, 10:09 AM)Muford Wrote:Oles going into the season at 700+ TPE and Leafs at 650+, I would easily say isn’t the worst WR group in the league. Throw in at the slot Orosz/Justice/Er/Zapp depending and I think the offensive load here in SJS is better off than you think.
I think the problem is that in past years, the WORST fantasy QB was garbage, so being ranked last looks bad, but really there isn't much drop off. The #8 QB this year is a better fantasy option than the #6 QB two years ago. By TPE, SJS does have the lowest receiving corps, but that is misleading. As a QB, I would rather have SJS' offense than COL or NOLA. However, the QBs in COL and NOLA are much better than Christ. I will admit that SJS improving their offense means that Christ may actually be a better option than Falconi, and possibly rival McCormick, so Christ could be a sneaky good pick as the final QB. Like I said, you could win with him.