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+---- Thread: *S14 Fantasy Football Draft Tips (/showthread.php?tid=12699)
*S14 Fantasy Football Draft Tips - br0_0ker - 03-18-2019
[Ready for grading]
With the S14 fantasy season right around the corner, it’s time to take a peek at some draft tips to keep your fantasy campaign on the track for success. Here are some helpful insights from last year’s results that can guide you on your way to victory. Of course, every season is different, and solely looking at last year’s stats is not enough to make informed decisions in the game of fantasy football. However, positional trends usually stay about the same year-to-year, unless there is a dramatic shift in offensive philosophy across the league. You should use these tips as loose guidelines for your draft, but always be prepared to pivot on your strategy, zig where other zag, and capitalize on draft inefficiencies other owners might make.
Draft running-back early
Running-back was the highest scoring position in S13, and that should continue into S14 as standouts Marquise Brown and Slim Shady return to the field without regression. Even though quarterback had the most point scorers in the top 12 with 6, RB/FB was right there with 5, and the tier 1 RB plateau significantly outscored its QB counterpart. The scoring variance between RBs was much higher than for QBs, meaning if you have a top 2 pick, it’s not a question if you should draft a running-back with your first pick, it’s which running-back do you choose? By S13 results, Brown and Shady are the clear front runners for the position, outscoring the next closest runner by nearly 50 points on the season. Tier 2 RBs include youngsters Ricky Adams and Jerrod Canton, neither entering S14 with more than 4 seasons to date, figuring to improve upon their S13 campaigns. They are still a far cry from duo leading the RBs, but they’ll contribute a bit more than your tier 3 RBs, who scored 100 points less than Brown and Shady on the season. In fact, Brown and Shady both nearly doubled the sixth highest producing rusher in S13, so if you’re unlucky enough to be picking last in round 1, you sit in a prickly predicament of being at a severe positional disadvantage at RB. Between the two, I’m taking Shady as the #1 overall pick, as he sees the least change to his situation from S13 and projects to improve on last year’s results.
Try to grab a top tight end
If the variance among RBs made your head spin, imagine also drafting a position that netted you on average 7 less points per week than your opponent. That’s what the tight end market looks like, with extreme value near the top and a wasteland after that. Despite an influx of TE talent in the DSFL and NSFL rookies, it will still be a few seasons before the disparity between performers at this position lessens. You could almost make the argument that TE is the most important position and that either Declan Harp or Verso L’Alto should go top 3, but with L’Alto entering his first year of regression and Harp only outscoring the 6th TE by 90 points, it is still RB that gives you the largest production gap between starters. Still, you’ll want to grab one of these stud TEs early, as you don’t want to be stuck trotting out San Jose’s new #1 every week.
Wait on quarterback until later rounds
With so many quarterbacks in the top 12 of overall scorers, it might be tempting to grab one early and bank on that point floor to carry you through the season. Don’t give in to the temptation though, since if you look at QB performance in S13 you’d see 6 of 7 QBs breaking the 200 point threshold, with the top QB sitting at 265 total points. In fact, when you look at the per week advantage the top QB would give you over QB6, you’re getting a measly 4 point-per-week advantage from this position, as opposed to RB (8 ppw) and TE (7 ppw), meaning you should fill your skill positions before grabbing that number 6 guy from the board. Don’t wait too long though, or some cheeky owner could swipe a second starter and you might be left with newly converted DT Andrew Reese as your QB for S14.
Supplement your draft position with steady wide receiver production
The wide receiver position sees the smallest variance between top performers, a difference of only 40 points between WR1 and WR6, and less than 80 between WR1 and WR12. You’ll want to grab these guys when other positions offer less than ideal options, filling up on starters between rounds 2-6. The S14 format offers you a few options of roster combinations if you miss out on top guys at RB and TE, as you have the option to start 3 WRs each week. Grabbing the top WRs should lead to steady, if unspectacular, production, but you don’t want your best player to be anyone from this position. Should you find yourself there, you’ll need to make some shrewd moves to recuperate at other positions or otherwise have some significant luck to come away with the title, as this group does not project to outscore either the RBs or QBs in S14.
*S14 Fantasy Football Draft Tips - Roly - 03-18-2019
Awesome article man, love fantasy football analysis and its cool to see it here
*S14 Fantasy Football Draft Tips - Bigred1580 - 03-18-2019
Great write-up! Keep up the good work!
*S14 Fantasy Football Draft Tips - YoungTB - 03-18-2019
RE SPECT
*S14 Fantasy Football Draft Tips - J.G.10 - 03-18-2019
This guy gets it. Shady>Brown