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+---- Thread: *S15 Fantasy Football Draft Tips (/showthread.php?tid=13377)
*S15 Fantasy Football Draft Tips - br0_0ker - 05-06-2019
Hello everyone and welcome to the latest edition of Fantasy Football Draft Tips. The Ultimus was won (go SaberCats!), the S15 draft is complete, and that means fantasy season is just around the corner! Whether you are new to the game or a slave to the cruel mistress we call fantasy football, it's always good to get some fresh perspective before the draft. Without further ado, here are this season's Fantasy Football Draft Tips:
1. Marquise Brown is in a league of his own
If you are lucky enough to have the first overall pick, congratulations, you have a huge leg up on the competition this year. Last season, I predicted Slim Shady would usurp Brown for the fantasy football rushing title and boy was I wrong about that. Not this season. This season, I'm sounding a ringing endorsement for the guy that outscored the next best fantasy running back by nearly a hundred points. Don't get me wrong, the other top tier running backs are certainly good players, but Brown is just on a different level entirely. The man scored (in most cases) over twice as many rushing touchdowns as any other running back you would draft, and the only other running back that matches his yardage total is Slim Shady, who plays for what might just be the worst offensive team in the league and just added another back this offseason. Alternatively, Brown remains just a season removed from being traded to the Hawks, and is still a season away from regression. Another season of stability within the Baltimore offensive powerhouse should yield him yet another running back of the year award in S15.
2. If you can't get Brown, go get that other top running back.
Running back remains the premier group in the coming S15 draft, with only two running backs exceeding the average of fantasy starters in S14. The emergence of Dick Wizardry as a top option makes the early selection (pick two, hint hint) a bit easier, but with the Arizona Outlaws acquiring Ricky Adams off the Orange County Otters this offseason, the top end running back situation gets a little murkier after the top two on the board go. I expect the Outlaws' running game to be a bit more efficient this year, with the tandem of running backs keeping each other fresh, but honestly I expect this to still be split primarily as Slim Shady's backfield. Anticipating a 60/40 or even a 70/30 split, I don't think either Arizona running back continues to reign at the top the running back list, but instead settle in to a holistically more productive group, much like Adams was able to pair with Seer Zephyrous in Orange County. Look for up and comers Tyler Swift of the New Orleans Second Line and * Fast Boija of the Philadelphia Liberty to make strides toward the top spots in this year's campaign.
*It was brought to my attention Vander Jones of the Portland Pythons was brought on and position switched to RB for the Liberty. He assumes the role Boija had in S14
3. Get a top tight end
If you were paying attention last year, you knew Verso L'Alto was going to reign supreme atop the tight end finishers. Heavy usage at the tight end position was a trend the Baltimore Hawks could be relied on to continue, and continue it did. However, the outstanding performance of Marquise Brown left the Baltimore passing game a little deflated, as S14 saw the Hawks down 300+ yards and over ten touchdowns less than the season previous. I expect this to continue, as Baltimore rides the wheels off their potential MVP candidate, but L'Alto's production should remain similar to seasons past. S15 also saw the emergence of Johnny Blaze as a red zone target, leading all tight ends with seven touchdowns, and the loss of their top running back option leaves some offensive slack to be picked up. A shift to a heavier passing offense could be in Orange County's future, and Blaze might turn into a roaring inferno. The top five tight ends of S14 all saw very similar target numbers, so you're really looking for the guys that have increased usage in the redzone. L'Alto and Blaze are those guys.
4. Wide receiver is still top heavy, but the deepest position
We'd expect a shift to a more wide-receiver-centric fantasy draft once the standouts at running back and tight end are gone, but the scoring disparity between top wide receivers and the position group starting average from S14 was very close, and may entice managers to grab other positions before they are exhausted first. The top six wide receivers scored within four points per game of each other, similar to the tight end group, but significantly lower than the running back group (thanks Mr. Brown!). Even though this is the only position group you are required to start to players from, the position is deep and you will likely be able to find starters into the fourth and fifth rounds of your draft, which is why tight end nudges wide receivers in positional importance. If you are unlucky and draft at the back end of the pack, doubling up on a couple top wide receivers may not be the worst option, as some of S14's top performers are set to be hit pretty hard by regression in S15. Expect guys like Jordan Von Matt, Vinny Valentine, Kazimir Oles to once again finish tops in their position group.
5. As always, wait on quarterback until late
Look, if you are drafting quarterback before you have at least one each of wide receiver and running back, you are setting yourself up to be behind everyone right from the start. Quarterbacks once again saw the least disparity among the starters in S14, with barely over three points per game separating the number one overall and number five overall quarterbacks. If you were a fool (like me) and grabbed a guy like Applehort or Falconi hoping their bottom tier defenses would provide the environment necessary for a pass-heavy attack, well, you were wrong. Get a starter from one of the teams that is not going to be in the running for the number one overall draft pick, as a tanking team will provide only meager offerings for quarterbacks. You don't want to be the first one to dip into the quarterback pool, but you definitely don't want to be the last.
6. Remember this is a game of aggregate difference, not highest points.
Remember that you are playing against each manager on a difference between your aggregate season points, not just a high score. While the quarterback position group featured the highest scorer from the S14 season, that does not mean quarterback is the most important. Take note of what remaining players on the board are projected to out-differ the differences between other remaining players in the other position groups, and if that happens to lead you to a player that may score overall less than another group, if that leads to a greater margin of points, you win. Forcing another team to roster that bottom rung player is to your benefit, and if you can create runs on positions or positional scarcity, it is always in your benefit to do so. Just remember the ultimate rule in fantasy: when all else fails, trust your gut.
That does it for this season's edition of Fantasy Football Draft Tips. Hopefully this will prove helpful to both the newer members of the fantasy football community and veterans alike. All that is left is to draft smart, watch that waiver wire, and everyone have themselves a fantastic S15 fantasy season!
*S15 Fantasy Football Draft Tips - timeconsumer - 05-06-2019
(05-06-2019, 02:58 PM)steelsound Wrote:Fast Boija of the Philadelphia Liberty
Vander Jones owns this backfield now
*S15 Fantasy Football Draft Tips - br0_0ker - 05-06-2019
(05-06-2019, 11:14 AM)timeconsumer Wrote:Vander Jones owns this backfield now
The standout CB send down from the DSFL? Oh man, I need to get with the times it seems. We should really get a page with updates on every offseason transaction (trades, signs, position changes) since everything is scattered about.
*S15 Fantasy Football Draft Tips - Jonny2x - 05-07-2019
(05-06-2019, 02:58 PM)steelsound Wrote:outscored the next best fantasy running back by nearly a hundred points.
(05-06-2019, 02:58 PM)steelsound Wrote:with barely over three points per game separating the number one overall and number five overall quarterbacks.Very well thought out and written. I am on board with most everything you said. Curious though, where are last year's numbers coming from? Any points summary still available. I put the number together in an excel sheet and they are a bit different than these.
*S15 Fantasy Football Draft Tips - br0_0ker - 05-07-2019
@Jonny2x
S14 Master Sheet
If you scroll to the Week 14 tab, those are the season stats converted to total fantasy points in the last column
*S15 Fantasy Football Draft Tips - AdamS - 05-07-2019
Dont pick Dick Wizardry at the top. He is not be the 2nd rb.
*S15 Fantasy Football Draft Tips - br0_0ker - 05-07-2019
(05-07-2019, 02:23 PM)AdamS Wrote:Dont pick Dick Wizardry at the top. He is not be the 2nd rb.
¿Por que no?