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+---- Thread: *Season Prediction analysis (/showthread.php?tid=13454)
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*Season Prediction analysis - JuOSu - 05-10-2019
Before filling out my own season predictions, I decided to go with the idea of the group intelligence and looked at everyones season predictions.
What I learned is that there seems to be a fairly good idea about most spots, but there are still some question marks.
Some basic observations:
- Most teams have the Hawks in first place and the Yeti in fourth place, while Liberty and Wraiths are fairly even.
- Most teams have Second Line in third and Outlaws in fourth, while Sabercats and Otters are closer together.
- There are some crazy people out there.
- While more people have the Sabercats in first place in their conference, way more people have Orange County winning the ASFC and the Ultimus than San Jose.
- The same amount of people predict an Arizona Ultimus win as a Philadelphia Ultimus win.
And now here are more detailed numbers:
Average rank:
Baltimore Hawks: 1.10
Philadelphia Liberty: 2.38
Yellowknife Wraiths: 2.57
Colorado Yeti: 3.94
San Jose Sabercats: 1.41
Orange County Otters: 1.69
New Orleans Second Line: 3.15
Arizona Outlaws: 3.76
Playoffs:
Baltimore Hawks: 97.20%
Philadelphia Liberty: 57.01%
Yellowknife Wraiths: 44.86%
Colorado Yeti: 0.93%
San Jose Sabercats: 97.20%
Orange County Otters: 97.20%
New Orleans Second Line: 1.87%
Arizona Outlaws: 3.74%
Regular Season winner:
Baltimore Hawks: 53.27%
San Jose Sabercats: 23.36%
Orange County Otters: 20.56%
Philadelphia Liberty: 1.87%
Yellowknife Wraiths: 0.93%
NSFC winner:
Baltimore Hawks: 89.72%
Philadelphia LIberty: 6.54%
Yellowknife Wraiths: 3.73%
ASFC winner:
Orange County Otters: 65.42%
San Jose Sabercats: 32.71%
Arizona Outlaws: 1.87%
Ultimus winner:
Baltimore Hawks: 44.86%
Orange County Otters: 29.91%
San Jose Sabercats: 18.69%
Yellowknife Wraiths: 2.80%
Philadelphia Liberty: 1.87%
Arizona Outlaws: 1.87%
The main takeaway truly is the odd distinction between SJS and OCO. I wonder if someone can explain this to me in the comments. Nearly 2/3rds of people have SJS winning the ASFC in the regular season, but the same amount have Orange County winning it in the playoffs. It is the main difference that happens in this data and I am not sure what to make of it honestly. Any one have thoughts on that?
*Season Prediction analysis - BWIII - 05-10-2019
My best guess with the SJS/OCO thing is that a lot of people think the Sabercats will return back to the Lolcats and choke in the playoffs as opposed to last season's result. Not my takeaway as I blindly copied my picks, but that's my best guess.
*Season Prediction analysis - Bigred1580 - 05-10-2019
My guess is a lot of people want to pick at least one upset in the playoffs and that seems more likely than Baltimore being upset
*Season Prediction analysis - 37thchamber - 05-10-2019
People laughed at the Sabercats for seasons... now they're slappin' big ol' panther balls on foreheads and people are... still laughing.
Fascinating.
*Season Prediction analysis - timeconsumer - 05-10-2019
I did something similar last season betting the Hawks to win the NSFC and lose the playoffs. It wasn't me betting on a choke, it was a hedge.
*Season Prediction analysis - Molarpistols - 05-10-2019
The road team has won in the ASFC championship two years in a row. If SJS has homefield, then OCO is on the road. Another road upset to make it 3 years in a row?
*Season Prediction analysis - Beaver - 05-10-2019
(05-10-2019, 07:50 AM)timeconsumer Wrote:I did something similar last season betting the Hawks to win the NSFC and lose the playoffs. It wasn't me betting on a choke, it was a hedge.^this
I'm really not sure which of SJ or OC will win the conference or advance to the Ultimus so I put one for each of those to increase my chance of getting 1 point between them rather than gambling on 2. Of course that backfired on me spectacularly in Season 13 when I had OC winning the conference and SJ advancing to the Ultimus only to have the exact opposite happen.
*Season Prediction analysis - Jonny2x - 05-11-2019
(05-10-2019, 07:50 AM)timeconsumer Wrote:it was a hedge.
Exactly. You can't pick all the high seeds in March Madness and expect to win. Plus, your brain just doesn't let you do it, it "feels" wrong. Sports fans are always looking to for their "I called it" moment.
*Season Prediction analysis - iseedoug - 05-14-2019
*Season Prediction analysis - manicmav36 - 05-14-2019
(05-10-2019, 06:46 AM)37thchamber Wrote:People laughed at the Sabercats for seasons... now they're slappin' big ol' panther balls on foreheads and people are... still laughing.
Fascinating.
You always have a way with words.