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+---- Thread: *Season 16 Fantasy Football Deep Dive Book 1 (/showthread.php?tid=14302)
*Season 16 Fantasy Football Deep Dive Book 1 - Bigred1580 - 07-15-2019
So, I have been an active member of this league for only about 6 months. Prior to that, there was only one kind of league that could suck me in and take up all my time. That was my fantasy football league. Once I joined this league and found out we had our own fantasy I was ecstatic. I also felt, like many of you I am sure, that based on my years of experience of real NFL fantasy football drafts, I would have an edge over the competition. Little did I know (although I should have), that this league is full of a bunch of degenerates as well, so my competition was fierce. Over the past few seasons I have gotten better and better at understanding this league and it’s idiosyncrasies and that has enabled be to gradually improve until last season I finally won my group. So, as things go, I am no longer just satisfied with winning alone, but I want to win all the groups. To do this I decided to dive in even deeper and analyze this fantasy draft and what makes the good teams good and the bad teams bad. It doesn’t hurt being a co-GM and understanding how I believe certain players are going to be used as well as learning the sim and why we both love it and hate it so much. I plan on revisiting this data throughout the season and track how my predictions stack up.
My first piece is about the draft alone. I’m not going to go into how certain teams are good just because they landed Torenson, but analyse the ADP (Average Draft Position) of all players between all 14 groups. I like going into drafts with one strategy in mind. That strategy is Value based drafting. In real fantasy, I don’t go in knowing I want to go zero RB, late round QB, early stud TE, or two of the first 3 picks being a specific position. What I do is I go off value of players available, and tier based drafting (grouping players into tiers so that I don’t play scared and take a player just because of a run, and not because I like who fell to me). By applying that to the NSFL and ADP, I can see what players were taken with good value compared to their ADP, and what were reaches. This doesn’t mean that your draft was bad because like I said, if you reached on Torenson, you are a happy man right now.
First things first, I am going to analyze the ADP. I will link my entire chart here. In analyzing the Average draft positions, we see a few interesting things right away. First, the top 5 players taken in drafts were running backs. Just like the NFL, RB is the prime fantasy position. This is mostly due to the fact that there are only so few game changing backs, that the top ones really separate themselves. In actuality, there are only 14 RBs taken in all drafts, which means over a third all all players taken at this position are taken before anyone else. You can also see that 7 of the top 10 players are RBs so half of all RBs taken are taken in the first 1 ½ rounds. It really pays to get your workhorse. Next thing you will notice is the run on WR. Once their RB1 is taken, many players seem to rush to fill out both WR slots. This means the top QBs and TEs fall. TE and QB are also positions where the top guys can go as early as the late second round, but a large amount of players will wait until the last few rounds to take them. Lastly, K and Defence are the last to go, but more people are willing to reach for one of the top defenses earlier than they will dabble with kickers.
The top 5 RBs were partly up for debate but when everything was settled, Marquise Brown was once again top dog. In fact only 2 leagues didn’t take him as the first overall. Following him was a close battle between Vander Jones in Philly, Dick Wizardry as the bell cow for the new expansion team in Austin, and Slim Shady picking up yards in the desert. Between these 4, there were at least 3 taken in the top 4 in all leagues. T Swift and Canton were next in line. At Wide Receiver, Valentine was the consensus first off the board, with Maddox and Oles not to far behind. Sunnycursed, Flash, von Matt, and Bishop followed, and all were picked in the top 10 in at least one league. Christ and Showbiz were neck and neck for the top QB, with Blaze, L’Alto, and Brannigan being the top options at TE.
With the last part of this volume, I am going to take a super quick peek at each group and give an initial opinion on who drafted the best as far as ADP.
*There are a few groups that I am putting an asterisk by. This is because they had one member not complete the draft which skews some of the numbers a bit. Think of it like comparing ADP for both 10 and 12 team leagues. Just helps to separate the two.
Group 1 overview: One of two leagues that Marquise Brown wasn’t first overall. It had a few
Noteworthy selections, but overall, a fairly even league.
Best: AlexF, although he could have been better. He got great value getting Brown from the 3 position and pairing him with Canton. Then he got a steal taking von Matt 23OA when he is going around 15. He also was on the early end in taking Christ at 13, but seeing as he got the top QB as the 3rd QB off the board, that isn’t too bad. A reach for Ahri Espeeyeeseetee is the only thing hurting his overall.
Worst: DavidCorperial had a tough go of it when Marquise Brown would have fallen to him but he got skipped and settled for Swift instead. Also picking Bishop and Adams below their ADP didn’t help.
Steal of the Draft: Jordan von Matt, 23rd pick, AlexF
Best Player not taken: Brock Landers
Group 2 overview: Tough to gauge with a pretty consistent group at the tops for the most part.
Best: manicmav36 barely tops off numbers here. I know I am not supposed to let current results effect this, but tie goes to whoever drafted Torrenson. Numbers had a steal in getting Dick Wizardry at 10 overall and manic got Valentine and Showbiz later than average.
Worst: Sorry TickleTim, but you drafted me in the first round, not knowing that the Wraiths were going to share the load with all our weapons. That pick set you back a bit.
Steal of the Draft: Dick Wizardry, 10th pick, stupid numbers
Best Player not taken: Terry Taffy
*Group 3 overview: One player missing from this draft meant value everywhere else and we had some strange picks including Valentine going 1OA, Shady falling to 19, and Landers in the top 10.
Best: Frick_Nasty had a hell of a draft getting two of the top 4 RBs, two top 5 WRs, a top three QB and a top 2 TE. The pick of Slim Shady at 19 overall was a crime.
Worst: infinitempg decided to be a charitable fellow by guaranteeing that he didn’t get any extra money when this draft was over. With reaches on Swift, Valentine, Landers, and Taffy, his skilled positions are locked up with guys he could've gotten later.
Steal of the Draft: Slim Shady, 19th pick, Frick_Nasty
Best Player not taken: Josh Parker
*Group 4 overview: One of the most even drafts out there. There were a few reaches, but it seemed whenever a team made a reach, their draft also included someone at great value
Best: royalc90, Brown and Reed at RB, Maddox and Flash at WR is a great tandum and makes up for the reach with Branningan.
Worst: PigSnout, in possibly the best worst draft, the only thing PigSnout did was take everyone at their value, so he has a strong team, just no one who separated themselves.
Steal of the Draft: Brock Landers, 36th pick, AW3
Best Player not taken: Corvo Havran
*Group 5 overview: This draft is notable first for the higher preference for WRs early on as well as the only draft in which Johnny Blaze never came off the board.
Best: flyeaglesfly29. Picking 1OA is really helping a lot of these teams. Fly did even more by pairing Brown with Reed, as well as Maddox and Flash, all way later than their value.
Worst: Duilio05 had the most reaches of anyone in the group when he snagged Canton, Gump, that bum Nate Swift, and drafted a kicker earlier than anyone in any group. Definitely living up to the Taco Corp Brand!
Steal of the Draft: Slim Shady, 9th pick, majesiu
Best Player not taken: Johnny Blaze
Group 6 overview: Total flip of group 5 in which RBs were premium. 7 of the first 6 picks were RBs.
Best: TeyonShavari wins the tie by default since he got Brown and Torrenson as RB and flex, as well as good value on Christ. After that he didn’t have any bad reaches.
Worst: Raven wins the tie for last place by drafting me. He also picked Gump 10 spots above his ADP.
Steal of the Draft: Jerrod Canton, 18th pick, Tomasnz
Best Player not taken: Ricky Adams
Group 7 overview: Powerhouse draft of super active members including 5 out of 6 members being current or former GMs
Best: shadyshoelace. This goes to show that not all value is created equal. Shady got value on all his picks, getting Swift all the way at 10 and waiting until the end of the draft to grab the highest TPE and top 3 taken QB. He also didn’t reach in getting Jones, Flash, Landers, and Brannigan. He is currently in last place after 4 weeks, but hopefully his poor start will make a comeback
Worst: slm had the worst draft of the group, mostly because he seemed to favor his own clients over better options.
Steal of the Draft: Adriana Falconi, pick 45, shadyshoelace
Best Player not taken: Morgan Marshall
Group 8 overview: Super interesting draft to be a part of. 9 of the first 10 players taken were running backs. There was only one other back taken in the remainder of the draft. This led to the top 5 wide receivers ending up on the same 2 teams.
Best: Me of course. I was the only member in the league that didn’t draft their own player.
Worst: Since it is my group I won’t go with a worst. Everyone who isn’t me is the worst, jk.
Steal of the Draft: Sunnycursed, pick 22, ErMurazor
Best Player not taken: Terry Taffy
*Group 9 overview: Very interesting draft. Qbs went super early with Christ going at 10, Reese at 19, and Francisco going at 15. This draft was full of more reaches than any other
Best: Both MrStennett and Oles had pretty good drafts but the winner has to be Stennett who had similar drafts while still getting the top QB in Showbiz.
Worst: caltroit seemed to go with a unique strategy of taking Francisco, Branigan with the 2,3 and Anoia and Hardwick at the 4,5 turn. All way above their current value. He was also the only person to draft Ty Justice from every group.
Steal of the Draft: Jordon von Matt, pick 27, MrStennett.
Best Player not taken: Forest Gump
Group 10 overview: The only draft with a QB going no. 2 overall.
Best: Vander Jones had a great draft nabbing both Reed and von Matt way below value. He completed it by having standouts at every position.
Worst: run_CMC, lol, the top team in the league ends up having the worst draft by value in his group. Maybe he just knew something we didn’t. He took “reaches” on Cam Olsen, Corvo Havran, and Jeff Murphy.
Steal of the Draft: Reed, pick 30, Vander Jones
Best Player not taken: Morgan Marshall
Group 11 overview: In this draft, TE’s were at a premium. Both Blaze and L’alto went 13,14.
Best: Very close, but the best draft goes to rookie Graciej2000. He got Vander Jones at 6, then nabbed Valentine and Flash for his two WRs. That and being the 5th to take a TE in a TE heavy draft gave him good value.
Worst: YoungTB. Not only did he not finish his draft, but the picks he did make were mostly above value.
Steal of the Draft: Vander Jones, Pick 6, Graciej2000
Best Player not taken: Forest Gump
Group 12 overview: Pretty standard draft with a few outliers such as Parker going early. Other than that, WR were valued slightly higher.
Best: Very even draft, one of the harders to pick best and worse. But for best I’m going to go with karl because he had the best steal of the draft in canton.
Worst: Nunc has a really good team, but for value he got Parker and Maddox as his top two WRs above their value.
Steal of the Draft: Jerrod Canton, pick 10,
Best Player not taken: Chicago Defense (player-Morgan Marshall)
Group 13 overview: The top 10 of this draft is almost exactly like ADP, minus the 3,4 picks being swapped.
Best: tlk742 had the best draft in another close draft. He nabbed both Flash and Brannigan with great value. It shows that not everything is sunshine and roses getting value because he is currently in last place.
Worst: Trautner took both Gump and Helanan way above value.
Steal of the Draft: Flash, pick 27, tlk742
Best Player not taken: Ricky Adams
Group 14 overview: Interestingly enough, the number 3 TE (when 7 were taken) and QB were not drafted.
Best: LGMForever had the best draft of the last group getting value on T Swift as well as having no holes in his lineup.
Worst: Scorp with the bold strategy of taking the top 2 TEs. He did get great value on Bishop to make up for it.
Steal of the Draft: James Bishop, pick 29, ScorpXCracker
Best Player not taken: Adriana Falconi
This was just a quick look at all the leagues. I will revisit this later in the year to see what players were real values. Who over-performed, and who under-preformed.
*Season 16 Fantasy Football Deep Dive Book 1 - manicmav36 - 07-15-2019
I did something well!
*Season 16 Fantasy Football Deep Dive Book 1 - SwagSloth - 07-15-2019
Great write-up. Really enjoyed the analysis.
*Season 16 Fantasy Football Deep Dive Book 1 - TeyonSchavari - 07-16-2019
I like the write up. Might want to look up the difference between "Steel" and "Steal" tho
*Season 16 Fantasy Football Deep Dive Book 1 - Bigred1580 - 07-16-2019
(07-16-2019, 08:00 AM)TeyonSchavari Wrote:I like the write up. Might want to look up the difference between "Steel" and "Steal" tho
LOL, thank you!