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+---- Thread: *Mock draft for the S18 NSFL draft (/showthread.php?tid=15768)
*Mock draft for the S18 NSFL draft - BaconBrother - 09-30-2019
4725 words, ready for grading and x1.5 draft media
So I decided to take advantage of some extra earning possibilities and have a look at the upcoming NSFL draft, where me and my fellow S18 rookies will be drafted into the big leagues and join the ranks of the great ones. I will have a look at the first round of the draft and go pick by pick, looking at what are the biggest needs of each team at that pick, what are the probabilities that the pick is traded and who is the most likely player to be picked. If the probability a pick will be traded is high, I will give an alternate option for that draft pick. There will definitely be a lot wrong, but a lot of fun as well so let’s get into it.
Pick #1 New Orleans Secondline
Team needs:
New Orleans is a young, up and coming squad with a lot of talent that just needs to hit its prime. Looking through their squad there are two clear holes that they need to address. The first is their defensive line, the big boys in the trenches that are looking to beat up the opposing quarterback. Currently their only active guy is last years 4th overall pick Brayden Ennis. He will be a star in the future and be a fixture for a long time, but he can’t do everything alone. With him in the trenches is a bunch of old and inactive players who are either about to hit regressions or already been hit by it. This means that they need some help there and they need it quickly. The second hole is also in their defense and more specifically in their secondary and their safety group. This safety group is even worse than their defensive line, because they don’t have any active guys to count on. To add to this their guys are from S12, S10 and S8 and their safety with the highest TPE is their oldest and hitting regression the hardest. They will absolutely need to add someone here because if they don’t, then their opponents will be able to pass all over them and it will not even be hard.
Most likely player to be picked: Defensive Tackle Bjørn Ironside
Well it is good to have the easy, gimme, whatever you want to call it out of the way. Everyone knew who was going first overall in this NSFL draft since the beginning of the season, it was only a question of which team would have the privilege of drafting the phenom. We are of course talking about the great Bjørn Ironside. Ironside is a generational talent, which don’t come along very often so this pick is a foregone conclusion given that New Orleans is really hurting in the trenches. Pairing Ennis with Ironside will give them a great foundation on which to build on for the future and will give opposing quarterbacks nightmares for years to come.
Probability the pick will be traded: Zero
If anyone is thinking well maybe New Orleans could look at trading away this pick, just no, stop that nonsense. There is no logical reason for New Orleans to trade away this pick. In addition to having a huge need at defensive tackle, they have the ability to draft a generational talent and have a boat load of picks in this loaded draft class. Even if they did not need a defensive tackle, you find a way to make this pick work. It’s like telling the Cavaliers that hey we know you have some nice young guys so maybe you should trade away your pick and not pick LeBron James. Who in the hell would do that? Exactly no-one, so yeah Ironside is going number 1 to the Second Line and that is the end of that
#2 Pick Philadelphia Liberty
Team needs:
Well looking at the overall situation, I can’t sugarcoat it and tell you it is all good, because it isn’t. This team has a lot of holes all over the pitch which they won’t be able to fully fill through one draft. Thankfully for them they were able to secure their future at running back by trading away Marquise Brown to Chicago, and in return they were able to receive Sam Torenson, who looks to be the running back that will dominate the league for the next ten years. That is where the good news stops really. They have an aging quarterback who is taking regression hits and a wide receiver group where only one star is moving in the right direction. They will need to take a look at these two positions, but not with this pick. With the second overall pick they need to address the worst part of their team, which is their defensive line and linebacker group. Their linebacker group has some hope with a S14 active on their roster and they only need to pair them with someone on the other side. The defensive line on the other hand is a graveyard of inactives with low TPE numbers and no clear future. This means that this part of their defense has the largest need and should be addressed with this pick.
Most likely player to be picked: Defensive End Zach Hall
With two clear holes on the defensive side of the ball, the Liberty could choose to go either way, take a player for the defensive line or a linebacker. If you had asked me a week ago, I would have guessed the Liberty would have taken one of the talented linebackers available at the top of the draft, but now the situation is a lot different. With his position switch, Zach Hall is one of the most intriguing prospects in the draft. Before his switch, the drop off from Ironside to the next men in the trenches was quite large, but with Hall now at defensive end, he seems like a very logical pick for Philadelphia. They have no active players on the defensive line and those inactives haven’t had the chance to acquire that much of TPE. With a large number of linebackers available in this draft class, the Liberty could feel that they will be able to draft one of them in the second round or use draft capital to move into a position to draft them. If they do not draft Hall here, they will definitely miss out on the second best defensive line prospect from this draft class and that will cripple their defensive line.
Probability the pick will be traded: Low
If the Liberty did not have such a huge hole in their defensive line, I would have given a much higher probability for this pick to be traded. They have a variety of needs to fill in their defense and offense, and would love to trade down to gain a number of draft picks that they can use to plug those holes. The problem is that they do not have the luxury to trade down and need to take the second best defensive line prospect available and hope Hall can be a future leader.
#3 Pick Orange County Otters
Team needs:
So ok, here we have your reigning Ultimus winners, who just happen to have the 3rd overall pick as well. Looking over their roster, their offense looks to be in very good shape currently and in the future. Their biggest needs (as it seems everyones so far) surface on the defensive side of the ball, but as a breath of fresh air they have no needs on the defensive line. Their defensive line and linebacker group is very solid and they will only need to look at these in a few drafts from now. What they will have to look at is, is their desolate secondary. The only players they have there are their previous quarterback Gus T.T. Showbiz and probably future hall of famer Dan Schneider, but they are both aging and both into regressions so they will not be around for very long. Lucky for them they were able to snag a big name player in the free agency period in Jaylon Storm to make this a much more feared safety tandem. Overall this still means that Orange County will need to be on the lookout for the top cornerbacks and safeties, which are both available in the draft class.
Most likely player to be picked: Safety Pete Parker
The Otters biggest needs are in the secondary and lucky for them there are a multitude of options for them to choose from. This was a tough choice for me, but in the end I think they will go with the proven commodity and highest TPE earner in safety Pete Parker. Here there are other players which I could see being possible options, if the Otters decide otherwise. Both Korrin Abernathy and Louisiana Purchase are highly touted cornerback prospects that will have a lot of interested teams after them and it would seem to be a bigger need for Orange County because Showbiz is further into regression than Schneider. The reason why I see Parker being the pick here is him being a known player and his TPE which he has accrued and the fact that they have an additional pick in the first round, with which they could look to add one of the previously mentioned cornerback prospects
Probability the pick will be traded: Very Low
I know it sounds very boring with these predictions, but the Otters are in an interesting position. They have a young and talented squad with not many needs to fill. In addition they have 2 picks in the first round and three total in the first 20. This means that they have an abundance of draft picks, so most likely they will not need to trade down to get any more draft capital. In addition they are able to draft a prospect for a huge position of need, so unless they are offered highway robbery, I highly doubt they will move away from this pick.
#4 Pick Colorado Yeti
Team needs:
The Yeti have a multitude of needs to address in this draft with different stages of urgency. They would love to add a running back to pair with Terry Taffy to have a true RBBC, but that isn’t their pressing need. The biggest holes they have are on their defensive line (surprise motherfuckers! Like seriously does anybody make them?) as well as their secondary. They only have one active player on their defensive line (last year's first round pick Bubba Thumper), one active player within their safeties and only one cornerback TOTAL. It really is a pick your poison type of activity for the Yeti and they really do need a lot of good picks from this draft, but the good news is that they four picks in the first three rounds to use on these deficiencies.
Most likely player to be picked: Cornerback Louisiana Purchase (If any trade does happen then the most likely player to be picked will be Linebacker Maurice Virtanen)
This prediction is done solely on the needs of Colorado. With their huge holes in their secondary and defensive line, the most logical pick is the best cornerback available on the draft board. Purchase has shown his ability in training and would really fill a huge need. Another option for Colorado is the next best cornerback Korrin Abernathy, if they feel he gives them something that Purchase does not. Overall the biggest problem I have with this pick is that I do not think it will be Colorado, who will be making it and I will get into that in the next part
Probability the pick will be traded: High
Now you may ask why do I feel that there is a high probability for this pick to be traded and hear me out. Firstly the best prospects available are in positions, which the Yeti do not have any needs in and secondly there are a multitude of teams behind them in the draft that would be willing to give up draft capital to move and make sure that the player they want is available for them to pick. Given that the Yeti have a lot of areas to improve, they would gladly take some extra picks to move back a few spots because they are certain they would still be able to pick their player, Purchase later on. The only catch is that I doubt they would move totally out of the first round. If they do trade away this pick I feel that it will either be one of the talented linebacker trio Maurice Virtanen, Thudd Kassel or Net Gaines which will be picked here.
#5 Pick San Jose Sabercats
Team needs:
This was going to be a paragraph on how the Sabercats need to find an answer to the most important position in football, but luckily they were able to answer that before the draft with tight end Dan Wright switching over to quarterback to fill the position for the near future. Looking at the rest of the team, there are a lot of positions that need to be addressed quickly. With Wrights switch and the recent announcement that this will be Xavier Flash’s last season, the only receiving option the Sabercats possess is tight end Cameron Olsen, so they urgently need someone else to catch the football from Wright. Their defensive line and linebacker group is aging and will not help them in a few seasons from now. And then you feast your eyes on what their cornerback group looks like and you just want to cry. Both of them were supposed to be great future prospects drafted just two years ago but have gone inactive and with low TPE numbers, the Sabercats need to quickly find new players to fill their shoes.
Most likely player to be picked: Wide Receiver Tyrone Biggums
Again another touch choice at this pick. I looked at their inactive cornerback duo and thought that obviously they would choose one of the potential cornerback stars available, but with Wright’s move to quarterback and Flash’s retirement I had to do a double check. I also looked at how deep this class is at each position and with only 3 clear wide receiver options and 5 to 6 serviceable cornerbacks, I feel like the Sabercats can wait on that pick into future rounds. In addition they only pick again near the end of the second round, and have no picks in the 3rd round, and may find that all their wide receiver options taken by then. It is a tough situation they find themselves in, but with a pick like Biggums, they will surely have their wide receiver for the next decade.
Probability the pick will be traded: Medium
First I felt that there was no chance that the Sabercats would trade out of this pick with what they are able to take here, but then I realized that they have no picks in the third round in a very talented and deep class. With the amount of needs they have to fill on their roster and how they would love to have additional draft capital, I can see them shopping around this pick to move down in the first round and gain an additional third rounder.
#6 Pick New Orleans Secondline
Team needs:
So here were are with the Secondline again. Surprisingly their team needs have not changed that much in five picks, but having a second pick in the middle of the first round in a draft like this is great news for the team. With their first pick of Ironside, they addressed their need on the defensive line and next look to add more weapons to their other defensive positions. Their next biggest need is at safety where all they have is regressing inactives that will not help this team out at all. After that it isn’t really clear what they want to target so overall this will be an interesting pick for the Secondline.
Most likely player to be picked: Linebacker Maurice Virtanen (If any trade does happen then the most likely player to be picked will be Safety Pete Parker)
This obviously hinges on any trades that might happen with the Yeti at number four, but if there are no trades do not be surprised that New Orleans goes with the best player available in this slot. They obviously have more pressing needs at safety and their current linebacker combination will be fine for many seasons, but sometimes it is smart to take the best player on the draft board and trust in your team management and coaching to make it work. With linebackers able to be used in other positions such as nickel corner or defensive end, it does not seem like the worst option to take the player with the highest TPE in his class all the way down at pick number six
Probability the pick will be traded: High
There are a lot of interesting possible scenarios that might happen at this point during the draft. New Orleans will be closely monitoring what the teams before them are doing and especially what will happen with the Colorado Yeti pick at number four. If some team decides to trade up or the Yeti go another direction than the one presented in this mock, New Orleans might be able to have a best case scenario where the best safety prospect Pete Parker drops to them there and they are able to fill their most pressing need after their defensive line. They could obviously decide to just choose Virtanen and incorporate him into their lineup or even look to trade back down so that another team can take the highly coveted linebacker. All in all I feel like this pick has the highest probability of something crazy happening with it and New Orleans will hold a lot of power at this point with their high number of draft picks
#7 Pick Yellowknife Wraiths
Team needs:
The Wraiths have had an active free agency period re-signing their young and talented defensive tackle Ryan Leaf Jr. and wily veteran Danny Grithead. They lost one of their most promising young players in Jaylen Storm but were able to fill his void through the signing of another talented young player, Lightsout Lewis. Overall this only leaves them with one big hole to fill on the defensive side of the ball, this being their linebacker position. They have a star there in Alex Selich, but he is getting up there in age and he can’t do it all alone and will need someone opposite of him to help him out. The big news out of Canada though was the shake-up on the offensive side of the ball and more precisely the running back position. The Wraiths had known about the loss of fan favorite Jerrod Canton for a long time, but in addition to losing him they will soon be without their up and coming star Mogan Marshall, who decided that he will hang up his cleats and look to pursue other career options. This leaves them with a huge hole and exactly 0 running backs that they will be able to use past next season and is a much more pressing issue than their linebacker area
Most likely player to be picked: Running back Marcella Toriki
Lucky for the Wraiths and for the whole of Canada, they are in a great position to snag a future running back star with their first round pick. There are a lot of running backs in this draft class, but Toriki showed this season that she can be the workhorse back in Norfolk and she will need to use all those lessons she learned with the Wraiths. Yellowknife is lucky with none of the teams before them needing a running back and can have the best one off the board. Their other big need of a linebacker will have to wait for the next round and lucky for them this is a great linebacker class and most likely there will be great ones to choose from later on.
Probability the pick will be traded: Very Low
This is one of those situations where the Wraiths shouldn’t get cute and be happy that they are in a position where even in a bad situation (regarding recent news on their running backs) they are able to stay where they are and take the best running back off the board. The only situation I see where they are not picking at number seven is if other teams try and go ahead of them to pick Toriki, but looking at the running back needs across the league and other needs those teams have, I highly doubt that this happens
#8 Pick Arizona Outlaws
Team needs:
There are a lot of smaller holes that you could try and poke at with the Outlaws. Their quarterback Andrew Reese is aging and they will need to look at an heir sooner rather than later. Their linebackers are good but are not getting any younger and they only really have one safety which they can count on past the next few seasons. These are all true but the real needs come at running back and (surprisingly) defensive line. They only have one active running back and he isn’t even the top TPE player on their roster, and they cant count on any of them to be a part of their success too far into the future. On their defensive line, they have a bunch of inactives who are supported by a mid earning pick from last year’s draft and this group will definitely not be able to hold the fort down and get to the opposing quarterback. Now which one of these is a more pressing issue is the question, but I can see a case made for either one of them
Most likely player to be picked: Running back Ruff Ruff
The Outlaws will probably have long discussions on who to pick in the first round, but in the end I think they will go with certified good boy of the class, running back Ruff Ruff. With the highest touted prospect, Toriki, off the boards they will go with the next best option and who isn’t honestly that far behind Toriki. They will probably have a look at the highly rated secondary players and linebackers, but ultimately choose Ruff Ruff. One might also wonder why they don’t take a player for their defensive line here and I think that comes down to the fact that after Ironside and Hall there is a bit of a drop off to the next prospects and the Outlaws will feel like they can snag a player for their trenches within the next few rounds.
Probability the pick will be traded: Low
I really don’t see the need for Arizona to try and trade out of this pick. They have a clear need at running back and the difference between Toriki and Ruff Ruff is not that big as some draft analysts will have you think. Of course if Arizona views that this is not the case and really wants Toriki then they might want to jump ahead of the Wraiths, but the draft capital needed for that I feel is too high given the difference between the players and Arizona can look to use later picks to fill other needs on their roster
#9 Pick Orange County Otters
Team needs:
So here we are with another team who has a second pick in the first round. Just like with New Orleans, the needs for the Otters have not changed that much six picks later. If they have been able to fill their safety need picking Pete Parker with their first pick, the next need is also in their secondary and their cornerback group. With only ex-quarterback Showbiz as an active player here, it is definitely something that the Otters will want to address with this pick. Another area that might be on their lookout is their linebackers, which although good, can always be improved on with a bunch of talented rookies around for the taking.
Most likely player to be picked: Linebacker Thudd Kassel
This is going to be a pick which does not follow my reasoning so far in my mock. The Otters clearly have a need at cornerback and the most logical choice would be Korrin Abernathy (who I was close to placing here), but with Kassel still available who is getting mocked in the first 4 picks in many places, I feel this is an opportunity that the Otters can not pass up. They have a great linebacker duo in Raymond Van and Leighton Lee, but they also need to plan for the future. They can draft Kassel here and play him at cornerback if needed and he can take over the heavy lifting at linebacker when most likely Van (the older of the two) starts to hit regression. Another thought I took into consideration here is that there are a few other cornerbacks after Abernathy that the Otters could take with either of their second round picks (like seriously how many draft picks have been handed to the reigning champions?) and the drop-off between them and Abernathy is not too much to not take the best player available here.
Probability the pick will be traded: Very Low
I really do not see any sound reasoning for the Otter’s to trade away from here. They have two more picks in the second round with which they can use to fill other needs and they are lucky enough to be able to snag one of the best prospects of the class near the end of the first round. I think some team will have to give up way too much to change their mind and I don’t think that is happening
#10 Pick Austin Copperheads
Team needs:
Austin has clearly been adding pieces to their offense and with this draft will only really need look at filling roster holes in their defense. The three most pressing ones are linebacker, defensive line and cornerback. Their linebacker duo is pretty young and they hope they will continue progressing and their defensive line has all-pro talent in Dick Wizardry that will look to carry all those around him. Those they might look at with other picks, but with this pick their focus is most certainly on cornerback. Currently they only have Dermot Lavelle Jr. who is looking to carry on his father's legacy, but doesn’t have enough help around him to make the Copperhead’s feel like they are set at this position.
Most likely player to be picked: Cornerback Korrin Abernathy
Well the Copperheads will feel lucky here that they will have the second best cornerback of the draft class, drop to them all the way at the bottom of the first round. The Copperheads might think about looking at some of the other players available that might seem like better prospects, but not where they need. The big one that jumps out is Net Gaines, who the Copperheads can play at nickel corner, just like Kassel might be played, but overall the Copperheads will still look to go position over player with their first pick, and the final pick of the first round.
Probability the pick will be traded: Very Low
Again this is a situation where I don’t feel that there is much sense in Copperheads moving away from this pick. They pick again very early in the second round and can map out their overall draft strategy to make sure they are able to snag the best available players. They are able to fill a big void with this pick and some other team will have to throw a lot at them to make them move away from this pick, and I do not see that happening.
So that is the first round of the draft completed with probabilities for trades happening at each pick and what players will be chosen. How do you see this turning out? Hope you all had an enjoyable read (if you got this far) and let’s see what happens with the actual draft!
*Mock draft for the S18 NSFL draft - Opera_Phantom - 09-30-2019
Good stuff
*Mock draft for the S18 NSFL draft - Dylandeluxe - 09-30-2019
This is a super interesting mock. I can reasonably see this happening.
*Mock draft for the S18 NSFL draft - Buttersqauch101 - 09-30-2019
Great mock man, looking forward to see where you all go
*Mock draft for the S18 NSFL draft - Hallmonitor_20 - 09-30-2019
I really like this mock because you actually looked at trade potential and these could very reasonably happen.
*Mock draft for the S18 NSFL draft - Shadowz - 09-30-2019
bark bark