+- International Simulation Football League (https://forums.sim-football.com)
+-- Forum: Community (https://forums.sim-football.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=5)
+--- Forum: Media (https://forums.sim-football.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=37)
+---- Forum: Graded Articles (https://forums.sim-football.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=38)
+---- Thread: *S18 Analysis: Looking into the past and the future (/showthread.php?tid=16339)
*S18 Analysis: Looking into the past and the future - .Laser - 11-08-2019
Hello again, fellow NSFLers. Today, or tonight rather, I will be taking you on a journey through the past season in the NSFL, then give my outlook on the playoffs. The draft I won't cover, as I can get extra cash out of that lol.
We'll start by taking a look at the final standings, by conference. I will go over records, points for/points against ratio, and turnover ratio for each team, then give a little blurb about the team.
NSFC:
11-2, 1.64 (1), +2 (T-6)The Yellowknife Wraiths are the best team in the league. With the best points differential in the league, they barely showed signs of slowing down throughout the season, losing in weeks 1 and 13 to the Hawks and Outlaws and dominating the stretch in between. Their two losses were by 10 and 15 points, respectively, and their closest win was vs. Orange County by 4, and was sealed at the 6-minute mark. Nobody could touch Yellowknife this season, and it remains to be seen if the same can be said for the playoffs. They have fully lived up to their expectations for the season, as nearly everyone predicted them to win the NSFC and go to the Ultimus. They led the league in passing, albeit by only 9 yards, and were tied with Austin for most TD passes, posting a 2.39 TD/INT ratio. The Wraiths were an anomaly in rushing, however, placing 9th in the league in yardage yet posting a second-best 15 TDs on the ground. Overall, the Wraiths were the powerhouses of the S18 season. I have been reminded that the Wraiths defense is godly as well, absolutely dominating the league in every category except turnover differential.
6-7, 1.06 (4), +8 (2)Baltimore posted a record just under .500 this season, likely a little worse than what everyone thought they would get but in the right position I predicted nonetheless. Their point differential was right above 1, and their turnover rate was second highest in the league. They nearly went 7-6, but a last-second touchdown sunk them in the final game of the season against the Otters. Overall, they have a good team, and should look to have more wins next season as their roster continues to improve.
5-8, 0.80 (9) , +10 (1)The Yeti won in Week 13 to make it to the playoffs, squeaking ahead of the Butchers by only a hair, despite having the second-worst point differential in the league. However, their playoff push was aided by a league-leading turnover ratio, led by Quentin Sinclair and standout rookie Pete Parker. I correctly had them pegged as a playoff team, but did not expect them to be so close to being out.
5-8, 0.86 (8), -12 (10)Oh, Chicago. Not a good team, but has a lot of hope in the future. Worst in the league in turnover ratio, near the bottom in points differential, and winning a single road game against the Yeti in defensive showdown. This season was not the best for the Butchers, but it also could have gone a lot worse. Overall, it was a good season for them to compete in the league while also building into helping them really go at it next season.
4-9, 0.90 (6), +3 (5)The Philadelphia Liberty are a team scorned by the sim this year. They lost by 1 in their first game, and that would prove to be a good indicator of how the season would go. So many games were close for the Liberty, even though the final scores rarely reflected it. They were a one-half team, but have incredible potential for the future, and after a midseason trade for Thudd Kassel to reunite him with his friend Zach Hall, the team is looking at even more to continue talent to build around.
ASFC:
10-3, 1.56 (2), +4 (T-3)With the amount of talent in Orange County's locker room, it could feasibly be said that this was a down year for us. A solid mix of veterans and young players, we look to be an even more dominant force in coming seasons. This season went about as well as I expected it to, and I look forward to the playoffs. Our point differential and turnover ratio looks to only grow in the coming seasons as our entire team comes further along.
9-4, 1.22 (3), +4 (T-3)The Outlaws are another good team, and they round out the top 3 of the league with another excellent showing in both point differential and turnover ratio. They have a strong core and are grooming their next QB Jay Cue in the backstage of things, who will be ready to take over sooner rather than later. They'll likely see a small dropoff when that switch does happen, but once Cue rises to the top the Outlaws are goin to be one scary team.
6-7, 0.94 (5), +2 (T-6)The Copperheads are proving all the doubters who predicted them to finish last wrong, and AdamS gets to bask in the glory of all his newfound money, if anyone actually took his bet. The Copperheads have the looks to turn into a perennial playoff team in the stacked ASFC, with a solid situation at most positions and many steadily improving players in their weakest ones. Austin is a team to watch out for as a sleeper.
5-8, 0.87 (7), -7 (9)NOLA is the other team this year that got absolutely simfucked. Many close games, but a not great turnover ratio and as TomHanks has pointed out the number of penalties in key moments against the team was something to marvel at. They somewhat weakened themselves in trades this season, but now have 3 first round picks to show for it, giving them plenty of options to continue to build. They are a few seasons out, but could also be Ultimus contenders before too long.
4-9, 0.54 (10), -4 (8)Sorry, San Jose. You guys were unequivocally the worst team in the league this year. Worst in point differential, almost last in turnover ratio, and with a position switch QB who has not had enough time to build up his most important stats to a position that the sim actually likes. You did start to look better and better as the season wore on, and you have a superstar running back in Bex, so things will look up for you. Just maybe not as soon as you would like.
Now, for the playoffs. This isn't going to rely on stats at all, and will likely favor the home team since the sim gonna sim, but it is by no means expected to be perfect, and in fact I would be shocked if it was. I'll be going game by game all the way to the Ultimus.
NSFC
#3 Colorado Yeti at #2 Baltimore Hawks
I think that the home team prevails in this one. If there is an upset watch for the playoffs, this is it, but I simply cannot in good conscience pick Colorado over Baltimore with home field advantage being what it is in the sim. There's always a shot, because again, the sim gonna sim, but I see the final score being BAL 27, COL 17.
#2 Baltimore Hawks at #1 Yellowknife Wraiths
The Hawks are one of two teams to beat the Wraiths this year, but I don't see a repeat performance coming considering that said win was in Week 1. Yellowknife having home field advantage is going to make this a somewhat easy win for the Wraiths, although it will be hotly contested by the Hawks. I see the final score being something like YKW 34, BAL 21 after a garbage time TD by the Wraiths.
ASFC
#3 Austin Copperheads at #2 Arizona Outlaws
Arizona has too good of a core to lose this. The Copperheads have a way of being feisty, but with the way Easton Cole has been playing recently I don't see them being able to pull off the upset. The final score will be in the realm of AZ 24, AUS 20 in a hard-fought game that doesn't go the Copperheads' way.
#2 Arizona Outlaws at #1 Orange County Otters
The Outlaws and Otters split this series in the regular season, each losing at home, with a combined 16 points as the difference. This time, I think that the home team will win. While I do have some bias, I just can't see the Outlaws being able to tear up the Otters' defense while simultaneously being able to contain Franklin Armstrong, who has been absolutely on fire lately. Final: OCO 30, AZ 24
ULTIMUS
#1 Orange County Otters at #1 Yellowknife Wraiths
This is going to be a hell of a game. The regular season game was close all along until the final quarter, when a pair of Armstrong interceptions sealed the deal for YKW. I feel that although the teams are pretty evenly matched, the Wraiths will take home the S18 trophy solely due to home field advantage and the impact that has on every game. Final: YKW 21, OCO 17
There you have it folks. Some season review mixed in with some outlook to the future, and my predictions for the playoffs this year, posted just before the games start. Good luck to all the playoff teams, and to the ones who missed it, keep your head up!