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*The 100% Accurate Draft Prediction - thefrowntownclown - 02-25-2020 Editor’s Disclaimer: Due to the nature of time travel this Draft order is guaranteed as of the information present in the universe on the morning of the Saturday before the draft. Any changes to reality between that day and the draft, including those caused by paradoxes created when this journalist traveled through time, may result in changes to the draft order and this publication will not be held responsible for any financial decisions made based on the below article. I’ve just come back from the future, and let me tell you what I’ve seen: a glorious day filled with the realization of dozens of dreams as the S21 NSFL Draft finally arrived. The glitz and glamour of the big time focused on a group of players fresh off their first DSFL season, the hope in their eyes and jitters in their blood waiting for their name to be called. A new home and a new family waiting for them, and a new uniform to rep. After the draft I donned a clever disguise of a fake nose and moustache attached to oversized glasses and spoke to some of the people involved to get a sense of why they made the decisions they did. Now that I’m back in the present, no please don’t ask how I went forward in time or got back, I will attempt to dissect the information I’ve gained into a way for your mind to absorb it all. I will break this draft for you by position group first so you can see what the war room sees, which means looking at more than just the numbers on the field, then we’ll smash it all together at the very end at a master board that you can follow all the way through the first seven rounds at home. And when it’s entirely accurate and you’ve won all of your office pools I hope that you think of me when you vacation in Aruba with your winnings. We will start with the offense, and with the position everyone comes to expect first, the QBs. Quarterbacks The most popular position for fans watching at home was surprisingly one of the smaller position groups in this draft, the only groups with fewer viable players were the Offensive Line and Kicking. In some regards that makes the analysis easier, but at the same time it means there’s going to be fewer QBs in free agency down the road so the choice matters all that much more. Get it right and a team is set for a generation, but a wrong fit can spell missed playoffs for a team for years. Let’s start with the performance on the field: Nobody said being a quarterback in this league was easy, and the five QBs to watch in the draft prove that perfectly with their first season of work. It speaks to how stellar this year’s defensive rookies are (we’ll get to that later) that none of the players under center had more touchdowns than interceptions and that all their completion percentages ended the year around 50%. One interesting thing to note is that Lidous’ completions, attempts, and yards stand out above the rest of the class despite a middle of the road total rating, Norfolk asked their young QB to take control of every game and they sank or swam with their arm. Also not shown here are The Xekutioner’s rushing stats which led the class, 66 rushes in the season with an average of 6.6 yards per play. On the field any of these players can get it done if the scheme is a right fit for them, so let’s look at the intangibles: The Python’s O’Donnell and Kansas City’s Fujiwara were exactly the kind of leadership presence their GMs were looking for when they drafted at the start of the year. Regular contributors to their clubhouse on and off the field truly embodied what you look for in a cornerstone player. Cal and Chris put in the time and learned their playbooks but failed to take the step to fully take charge of their destinies. So that all said here is the final order the huckers go off the board: Chika Fujiwara - Kansas City Coyotes George O’Donnell - Portland Pythons Cal Lidous - Norfolk SeaWolves Chris Ramos - Myrtle Beach Buccaneers The Xekutioner - Tijuana Luchadores Wide Receivers The next smallest group of the skill positions is, surprisingly enough, the wide receiver corps. Another group that the fans at home can recognize and are typically the highest jersey sales after QBs but the market of draftable players is tight. These are your outside the numbers, quick cutting, high jumping, monster players, individuals that can elevate an entire team by drawing double or triple coverage, and 3 of the top 5 “Flex” players are wide outs this year, but it’s also the position group with the most players under 100 TPE. It seems like the S21 class was very much Boom or Bust, so how about we get right into the numbers. The class was led by three stand outs, Kross, Kurisuto, and Davis, while everyone else worked as hard as they could to keep up. The DSFL was a run heavy league this year (we’ll get to that later), and in the case of Kansas City there were two stud receivers as well as a strong pair of tight ends splitting the catching duties, all of which contributed to down stats for all the ball catchers. Kross was the only receiver to break 600 yards, and the highest score total was a tie at four meaning the class is scoring in less than 25% of their games. It’s hard to say who will have the skillset to work their way onto a NSFL roster the fastest, it looks like there is still a lot to learn for the WRs of S21, which brings us to the more esoteric side of the class. Again the top three in the class are the same, this time with Red Arrow also showing strong will to succeed throughout the season. In the aforementioned Kansas City roster it was Arrow that suffered the most; in spite of very strong stats and regular upkeep they had the fewest catches of the rookies from that team (barely over half that of their lead tight end). Something interesting to note is Remon Kurisuto tops the class in speed but leaves much to be desired with their hands. It did not seem to be a problem in his first DSFL season ending with the most receptions of the viable WRs thanks to how open downfield they got, but this might not translate into the pros where the coverage is tighter day in and day out. This is a solid group of players who will in time find their way onto rosters but the GMs will have to make tough choices based on their long term goals, and in the end this is how the group looks: Chris Kross - Kansas City Coyotes Remon Kurisuto - Norfolk SeaWolves Jerome Davis - Minnesota Grey Ducks Red Arrow - Kansas City Coyotes Raheem Okusi - Portland Pythons Alyx Sabor - Myrtle Beach Buccaneers Smolder Bravestone - Portland Pythons Tight End Next up we have the beefcakes of the offensive skill group, the tight ends. Going into the DSFL draft there were so many good tight ends to choose from that it took many rounds for the first to get drafted but that is not the case for the NSFL draft. There were multiple players in this position group that wowed scouts all year by putting up exceptional numbers in the sims and in the writing room. So let’s start by getting the obvious out of the way: Tree Gelbman’s league leading 60 receptions. This is one of the standout numbers of the whole year because not only is the league’s best, Gelbman was splitting receptions with another tight end and two great rookie receivers. Despite a quiet locker room presence Tree was able to translate it to gold on the field, if it will carry over is a big question mark however. After Gelbman are a group of five solid choices all with fairly even numbers. McDavid’s touchdowns and yards per catch are best in the group, and the only question mark on the line is Haugland, who’s receiving numbers are fine (look for him to move to WR in the NSFL). After that are myself and Robertoswki bringing up the rear of the class, his blocking numbers being better than mine on a snaps per game basis. Interesting to note is Shakir Ahmed, the last player drafted in the DSFL draft to make the NSFL draft big board, is the only player in this group to have any rush attempts in the season. GMS often look to their tight ends to play a versatile role on their roster so this flexibility and tenacity by Ahmed cannot be overlooked. Here the pack is led by two heroes of the class, Firestorm-Fjord and McDavid. Their TPE numbers are also in the top 5 for the offensive class overall, and you’ll not hear a bad word about either players from their teammates. Their hard work definitely paid off as they were called on time and time again throughout the season to keep drives alive and fight battles in the trenches. Haugland put up a strong showing as well, striking a good balance of all the key aspects of the position which should keep him high on most draft boards. The rest of the group is mostly unimpressive, the only thing of note is Robertoswki’s run blocking ability which should make him a useful player in the NSFL if only for blocking packages to start. In this NSFL draft a few tight ends go early, but most will go in middle to late rounds again, in this order: Leon McDavid - Myrtle Beach Buccaneers Osiris Firestorm-Fjord - Portland Pythons Reynaud Haugland - Norfolk SeaWolves Tree Gelbman - Kansas City Coyotes James Lewandowski - Norfolk SeaWolves Rainier Wolfcastle - Minnesota Grey Ducks Shakir Ahmed - Kansas City Coyotes Gronk Robertwoswki - Tijuana Luchadores Running Backs (and one more) The rushing group is the most interesting position family for the offensive side of the ball in this draft, and not only because it is the largest. The group includes one player who did not play a single down as a running back, but also a player who is a converted defensive lineman. To say the group is unique would be an understatement so without further ado; 8 backs, a receiver and a defensive end. Baby Yoda was an absolute freak of nature this season, leading the running back class in total rushes and rushing yards, and came in (a very distant) second for receptions and receiving yards. This brings us to the first anomaly, Norfolk’s Tequila Sunrise. The SeaWolves have incredible depth in the backfield so the odd man out at the end of training camp was Sunrise who, to his credit, took on the mantle of becoming a wideout in stride. He ended the season with the second most receptions for a rookie and the most receiving yards for the class. Sunrise could absolutely take these skills to the NSFL as a receiving back or a slot receiver but do not overlook him as a runner either, the skills are absolutely there. To me, though, the most impressive number is Logan Noble Jr.’s 1191 yards in 231 carries, amounting to about 5.2 yards per carry. That’s a good number on it’s own, topping the rookie running class, but the number is made more incredible by virtue of the fact that Noble Jr. is a defensive end. Depth at running back to make a player a receiver is one thing, to ask a player to play the other side of the ball then watch them dominate the league is nearly unheard of. These ironman athletes are rare in college so to see one flourish in the next level is incredible. Here’s a spoiler warning, Noble Jr. is my favorite player in this draft. Again Baby Yoda is at the top of the group, though the distance is much closer than last time. Some of the other players in the class might have a step of speed on Yoda, but the 70s in agility, hands, and endurance all look great to managers in the war room. There isn’t a dim spot on this list, even Reynolds’ low TPE turned into leading the SeaWolves in rush attempts and total yards, so even though they’re going in a later round I expect to see good things in the future. You’ll see the running backs (and Noble Jr) get drafted in the following order: Baby Yoda - Minnesota Grey Ducks Logan Noble Jr. - Portland Pythons Juniped Catfish - Norfolk SeaWolves Ed Barker - Tijuana Luchadores Tequila Sunrise - Norfolk Seawolves Rando Cardissian - Kansas City Coyotes Andrew Nova - Kansas City Coyotes Rick Skuff - Minnesota Grey Ducks Robin Reynolds - Norfolk Seawolves Offensive Line Very briefly, the line class for S21 is small. Only two of the players in the class truly stand out above the rest, the Myrtle Beach one-two punch of Tremblay and Quail. Tremblay was the cornerstone piece of the team’s offense with 166 TPE, and Quail was the guiding force of the trench with an astounding 56 pancakes and zero sacks allowed. The only other players of note are Portland’s Higgins and another Buccaneer, Dylan Green, but both fall to the late rounds. Defensive Tackles Now onto the true strength of the NSFL S21 Draft Class. With a few exceptions the class’s offense is pretty normal, a group of guys who will fit into their teams but may not be huge movers and shakers, but every defensive position is stacked with strong players that will flesh out any roster. We’ll start at the line, first the tackles and then the ends, then we’ll move back through the field to the linebackers and end with the defensive backs. The DTs in the class are a solid group of players, if you’ll excuse the pun. No single player is dominating the field, each have fairly equal strengths and weaknesses which should slot well into teams depending on the scheme. The single most eye catching stat belongs to Otis Allen who had 12 tackles for a loss out of 33 total tackles, and it’s hard to sneeze at a 33% loss rate. Also not shown on that stat sheet is Allen’s blocked punt, the only one of the group. Rapid Eagle’s 11 sacks also look good, but many GMs like their tackles to be more of a stay at home wall so the 3 TFLs take away some of the excitement there. It could well be that Allen’s success in key moments was helped by his preparation which was a head above the rest of the class. As with the on-field stats though the group is a solid group without a single outlier. In fact, the DTs are the only group detailed in this article without a player under 100 TPE. These players are all gone by the middle of the draft and every GM is happy with who they got, a rarity in these parts. Otis Allen - Portland Pythons Sardine Beaner - Minnesota Grey Ducks Pete “Plop” Miller - Norfolk SeaWolves Rapid Eagle - Myrtle Beach Buccaneers Riles McTackle - Kansas City Coyotes Juane Arc - Portland Pythons Defensive End(yes, him too) Outside the tackles we have an incredible corps of defensive ends that have terrorized opposing quarterbacks and running backs all season. Some do it with quickness, and others with sheer power, but they all made the offense weary every down. Tijuana’s Immanuel Blackstone was a force to be reckoned with all year with the most tackles from the line, the most sacks and forced fumbles from the outside, and the only DE with a fumble recovery and a safety. Tacktheritrix took what I said about Otis in the last position group to the next level collecting 27 TFLs on 45 tackles. That’s nothing short of incredible and it will be a big part of the reason he’s taken off the board so early in a very stacked defensive class. Interestingly no rookies on the line had any interceptions or batted passes, typically you see a handful in a group as talented as this, but it seems like these warriors were nose to the dirt more often than not this year. For the off-the-field stats you’ll notice that I put the incredible Logan Noble Jr. back on the list. He is, after all, on the roster as a defensive end, where he played prior to going to Portland. As for the numbers themselves, Blackstone again has the most impressive line. The TPE obviously speaks to how hard working he is, but he’s put that to good use leading the position group in Strength and Speed. If that’s not what you want to see in a defensive end I’m really not sure what is. No, seriously, I’m not sure anymore, I’ve been skipping through time so much this past week that much of my memory has been fried. Speaking of memory, Matt Hole was the dominant force in the classroom of this group with a whopping 55 intelligence, but unfortunately for him it failed to translate to reading schemes on the field with only 36 tackles and 4 sacks. Noble Jr. has numbers that could absolutely have translated to in game success at the DE position but the coaching staff accurately predicted he would dominate with the ball in his hand. Here’s the ends as they got picked: Immanuel Blackstone - Tijuana Luchadores Logan Noble Jr - Portland Pythons Chip Otle - Kansas City Coyotes Larry Longshot - Myrtle Beach Buccaneers Matt Hole - Minnesota Grey Ducks Jackmerius Tacktheritrix - Portland Pythons Dorfus Jimbo Jr - Norfolk SeaWolves Jeff Personsacker - Norfolk SeaWolves Linebackers Here we are in the middle of the defense, the guys with eyes, the D’s quarterback, the S21 linebacking corps. For the defensive rookies the LBs grabbed the most tackles per player by a good margin, four players here topped 100 tackles in the year. Quarterbacks also caught hell from this group with a combined 31 sacks and 32 passes defensed. This is the most diverse group of stats in the class, where the GMs were able to on paper alone see where each player specialized. Macgregor led the league in tackles and dominated the running game, Tucker Jr. and Summers read quarterbacks like cheap pulp fiction, Quaid was everywhere he needed to be and took the ball away at an alarming rate. Marshall’s 32 tackles and lone sack look meek but when you consider that they were gained in only six games it’s plain to see what a full season of service would have looked like for the SeaWolf. Quaid and Summers had very strong showings in their rookie campaigns, but the hard work of Mouseman and Tucker Jr. shouldn’t be ignored. Summers focus on intelligence served him well for sure as shown by the combined passes defensed and sacks, expect him to continue to find the holes as he progresses to the NSFL. All the players are fast, strong, and smart, so the picks really come down to what a team needs to finalize their leadership group. Here’s the list: Douglas Quaid - Kansas City Coyotes Holden Summers - Minnesota Grey Ducks Gregor Macgregor - Portland Pythons Perry Tucker Jr. - Portland Pythons Trevor Mouseman - Myrtle Beach Buccaneers Ryan Scott - Norfolk SeaWolves Ugarth the Dissector - Tijuana Luchadores Shepherd Marshall - Norfolk SeaWolves Defensive Backfield I combined the defensive backfield because this is where I expect to see the most position moving to fit their new teams rosters. Many of these players possess similarly useful skillsets so you will see corners moving to safety and vice versa, and as we saw in the DSFL season players may even move up to linebacker spots. Myrtle Beach’s PickSix and Kansas City’s Quellers battled all year for the crown and in the end PickSix was able to swat a handful more balls out of receivers’ hands, though Quellers was more efficient at bringing down runners with the ball. Prince Vegeta was outstanding in his help with the run game and double coverage packages, and Rotticus Scott took nearly all of his snaps at linebacker. How any team scored on the combination of Vegeta-PickSix-Frost-Scott is beyond me. The Bucs looked to win on their defense and that strategy took them to the Ultimini Final, look for these four to continue to dominate in the next league. See what I mean? Dominant. When experts talk about the unstoppable force meeting the immovable object THIS is the immovable object. These four guys have the raw force of talent to see every play as it happens in real time and guarantee their coordinators they’ll be exactly where they need to be to take the ball away or stop a carrier in their tracks. There really isn’t much to say about the defensive back group except for that, it’s Myrtle Beach then everyone else. Whatever is in the water down there in Carolina needs to be bottled and sold in sports stores nationwide. Prince Vegeta - Myrtle Beach Buccaneers HeHateMe PickSix - Myrtle Beach Buccaneers Dax Frost - Myrtle Beach Buccaneers Rotticus Scott - Myrtle Beach Buccaneers Jon Bois - Kansas City Coyotes Jeremy Quellers - Kansas City Coyotes Atlas Quinn - Norfolk SeaWolves Dillar Holcombe - Tijuana Luchadores Herb Altee - Norfolk SeaWolves Jack Marnette - Portland Pythons author's note: I've been told that since the inception of this article that Dax Frost has switched to RB. This is the most glaring issue with the timeline. Given his stats though I expect him to still be picked where he was in my timeline Special Teamers Love ‘em or hate ‘em, no team is complete without the kickers. Personally I love ‘em, those little weirdos are usually the most entertaining force of chaos in any locker room. The class has four worthwhile guys to look at, and we’ll do it all at once this time. Smirh, Louis, and Smalls are all completely competent place kickers. Smalls has the best numbers overall of the three but any team looking for their surefire points will be happy with any of the three. Junk is on the list in spite of the low TPE because of the punting ability. 21 drops within the 20 is pretty good by any measure so with a bit more training they should become a top class punter in short order. Dougie Smalls - Tijuana Luchadores Lefty Louis - Kansas City Coyotes John “Tripod” Smirh - Myrtle Beach Buccaneers Thelonius Junk - Norfolk SeaWolves The Board Below find the board broken down by round. I am not going to go into team needs, there are plenty of articles about all that. I’m not even going to tell you what teams have each pick, that way any trades will still be a surprise. So hold onto your butts! Round One Prince Vegeta Immanuel Blackstone Otis Allen HeHateMe PickSix Chris Kross Dax Frost Leon McDavid Douglas Quaid Zero Two Baby Yoda Round Two Logan Noble Jr. Remon Kurisuto Osiris Firestorm-Fjord Holden Summers Simon Tremblay Jerome Davis Juniped Catfish Rotticus Scott Chip Otle Sardine Beaner Round Three Gregor Macgregor Dougie Smalls Perry Tucker Jr. Pete “Plop” Miller Douglas Quail Reynaud Haugland Trevor Mouseman George O’Donnell Red Arrow Ed Barker Round Four Cal Lidous Tequila Sunrise Larry Longshot Matt Hole Lefty Louis Jackmerius Tacktheritrix Jon Bois Tree Gelbman Rapid Eagle Ryan Scott Round Five Rile McTackle Rando Cardissian John “Tripod” Smirh Jeremy Quellers Juane Arc James Lewandowski Chris Ramos Dorfus Jimbo Jr. Atlas Quinn Andrew Nova Round Six Rainier Wolfcastle Raheem Okusi The Xekutioner Emmet Higgins Alyx Sabor Dillan Holcombe Ugarth the Dissector Rick Skuff Shakir Ahmed Herb Altee Round Seven Smolder Bravestone Dylan Green Jeff Personsacker Gronk Robertoswki Jack Marnette Robin Reynolds Shepherd Marshall Hunter Young Austin Brehio Thelonius Junk *The 100% Accurate Draft Prediction - Jay_Doctor - 02-25-2020 Great work on this!! *The 100% Accurate Draft Prediction - thefrowntownclown - 02-26-2020 The article has been updated with the tables as well as a few corrections and notes thanks to the diligent reading of everyone!