*S21 DSFL Draft - Runningback Analysis

*S21 DSFL Draft - Runningback Analysis - Printable Version

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*S21 DSFL Draft - Runningback Analysis - howsour - 03-06-2020

S21 DSFL Draft – Running Back Analysis

Disclaimer: I tried to utilize the most current information I could find on each players’ update page. If I could not find someone’s update page, I simply assumed one was not created and placed them at 50 TPE. I am hoping that I didn’t miss anyone as pouring through the draft boards on the YouTube video proved time consuming and tricky, so if I forgot you, please let me have it in the comments.

Question 1: Who were the RBs drafted?

Overall, there were 20 RBs drafted. I had honestly thought there were more prospects than this, but this is the number I found. Some quick statistics for you: The average TPE of the drafted RB Prospects was 83.95, the Mean TPE of drafted RB Prospects was 70.5, and the Standard Deviation TPE for drafted RB Prospects was 34.27. Essentially, this means the average TPE for Running backs was decently high compared to some other positions; however there was a significant amount of variance as there were a few high earners that are inflating this number.

[Image: iwbSjzj.png]

Question 2: How much did each team value the RB prospects in the 2021 DSFL draft class?

In order to find this out, I wanted to see how much “early draft capital” was spent on RB prospects compared to the overall number of picks a team had. I defined “early draft capital” as the first 18 rounds (or 144 picks). Honestly, this designation was somewhat arbitrary, but I had to draw a line somewhere near the halfway point.

[Image: tPQFJGm.png]

As you can see, London and Dallas valued RBs the most in the early draft. This is unsurprising given the relative importance of the position in the DSFL and the fact that both of these teams were building their rosters from the ground up. Norfolk did not take any RBs in the first 18 rounds. This clearly signifies that they do not value that position in this particular draft meaning they did not find “their guy” when they were drafting, or they have the position filled solidly.

Question 3: Which team drafted RBs that best?

This is not to be confused with which team drafted the best running back. Generally, a General Manager’s approach to any draft should be to merge two ideologies that sometimes do not agree. They have to maximize the value of each individual draft pick while also filling in team needs.

[Image: r96Nl8j.png]

Here, you can see the average TPE of all the running backs that were drafted by each team. Obviously, this is not the full story since it does not take into account when exactly they were drafting. If you were to use the 64th pick on an 100 TPE RB, you would have used your pick more efficiently than if you were to draft an 100 TPE RB with the 32nd pick. Therefore, I will then calculate a weighted TPE based on the round someone was drafted. I am having to make my own small assumptions which I will not detail in this write up, but it is essentially a curve – if you can draft high TPE at the end of the draft it is more valuable than if you draft it early.

[Image: UhrDaKX.png]

Here you can see that Minnesota and Dallas were able to maximize the value for their drafted RBs more effectively than the other teams. Essentially, this means they were able to grab RB talent either at their valued pick or much later compared to the other RBs that were drafted.

Question 4: Who were the biggest RB steals?

Basically, this question is trying to answer which RBs were taken with much later picks when compared to similar RBs. According to my calculations the top 3 Running back “steals” were 1. Tatsu Nakamura: Nakamura was not drafted until the 3rd round of the draft and was the 4th RB taken overall. Currently, Nakamura has the 2nd most PE of all the RB prospects. 2. Jamar Lackson: Lackson was drafted by Minnesota in the 8th round and was the 6th RB off the board. No doubt boosted by a large recent influx of TPE. Either way, he is the sole contributor to Minnesota’s grade above. 3. Aaron Feels: Dallas was able to grab Feels in the 19th round as the 11th RB prospect off the board. As an active player and TPE levels much greater than those drafted around him.

Question 5: Who were the biggest RB reaches?

I am not trying to talk poorly of anyone I mention here, just telling you the results that were spit out of my statistical model. Obviously, this does not taken into account activity, personality, or how I believe these people will perform in the future. It simply deals with current TPE and when they were drafted. Honestly, there were very few RBs I would classify as complete reaches. 1. Zed Keppler: Keppler was drafted as the 10th RB off the board in the 17th round. This is simply because there were similar TPE RB prospects that were taken later in the draft. 2. Kevin Fakon: KC was able to take their “guy” in the 2nd round as the 2nd RB off the board. He still has a high level of TPE and perhaps was a very good fit for the team and likely a great locker room presence. However, at his current level of 103 TPE, there were 4 RB prospects taken after him that currently have higher TPE who were taken as far down as in the 8th round.

Conclusion:

I’m honestly not sure there is a lot of useful information you can take away here and is more just interesting to look at in my opinion. I guess my main takeaway is that if you are a GM and are looking for specific positions to draft, then it is a super good idea to engage prospects who might not be the most active and see if you can find value by encouraging them to earn TPE.

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*S21 DSFL Draft - Runningback Analysis - gucci - 03-06-2020

@DeadlyPlayer see told you White Goodman wasn't a reach lol

*S21 DSFL Draft - Runningback Analysis - DeadlyPlayer - 03-06-2020

(03-06-2020, 08:47 PM)gucci Wrote:@DeadlyPlayer see told you White Goodman wasn't a reach lol

I had to call you a reach because I couldn't draft you FeelsBadMan

*S21 DSFL Draft - Runningback Analysis - Billybolo53 - 03-06-2020

this is great. wish we had all the whole draft in that format

*S21 DSFL Draft - Runningback Analysis - qWest - 03-06-2020

Hell yeah man, you know Nakamura's the biggest steal of the draft bb POR

*S21 DSFL Draft - Runningback Analysis - howsour - 03-07-2020

(03-06-2020, 07:00 PM)Billybolo53 Wrote:this is great. wish we had all the whole draft in that format

I do have the first 144 picks in this format, if there’s interest I could do more positions given time.

*S21 DSFL Draft - Runningback Analysis - Billybolo53 - 03-07-2020

(03-07-2020, 07:03 PM)howsour Wrote:I do have the first 144 picks in this format, if there’s interest I could do more positions given time.

Selfishly I would want to see DT, but I think its very simular to RB. 5 prospects very closely ranked then a pretty big dropoff. Corner will prolly be the most intersting to look at since it was so deep and the run on them started early. Great stuff again, and good luck this season.

*S21 DSFL Draft - Runningback Analysis - BadLck - 03-07-2020

(03-07-2020, 11:33 AM)Billybolo53 Wrote:Selfishly I would want to see DT, but I think its very simular to RB. 5 prospects very closely ranked then a pretty big dropoff. Corner will prolly be the most intersting to look at since it was so deep and the run on them started early. Great stuff again, and good luck this season.

Idk I think the big dropoff is gonna be between 1 and 2 Wink

nah just messing but would love to see a DT version also

*S21 DSFL Draft - Runningback Analysis - BenDover - 03-07-2020

The other teams do be sleeping on me!

*S21 DSFL Draft - Runningback Analysis - Tesla - 03-07-2020

Washington Huskies represent! Nakamura is definitely a potential for one of the biggest steals of the draft.

Great job on this Howsour!

Same as Billybolo53 I selfishly would love to see defensive tackles, however I would be happy just to see more work like this in general.