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*The Importance of Timing (The Specialist) - run_CMC - 03-08-2020
[div align=\\\"center\\\"]
![[Image: PSTQtb3.png]](https://i.imgur.com/PSTQtb3.png)
[/div]Welcome back to another issue of “The Specialist!” Today’s topic: TIMING. Specifically, how it pertains to draft position in the recent Season 21 National Simulation Football League draft. Special emphasis will be put on running backs, and in particular, that poor, poor soul, Dax Frost. With all that said:
[div align=\\\"center\\\"]The Importance of Timing: Falls and Unfortunate Consequences of Knees
The loosely connected story of Dax “oof” Frost[/div]
Like all my random articles, this one was inspired by something specific. Namely, the aforementioned Dax Frost (@Frostbite). This guy was the highest TPE running back in the draft, with 241 TPE… and he fell all the way down to the 9th pick of the 3rd round, selected 29th overall by the Yellowknife Wraiths (out of 50 total picks). The players selected directly before him were 150 TPE defensive end Larry Longshot, 179 TPE wide receiver Red Arrow, and 138 TPE tight end Rainier Wolfcastle. These are by no means poor picks; every one of them is an excellent active player. However, going into the draft, Dax “oof” Frost was tied for the second most TPE of any incoming rookie. His fellow second place finishers? Defensive end Immanuel Blackstone, who went seventh overall to the Colorado Yeti, and safety Matt Murphy who… retired. First place? Safety Prince Vegeta, who with 259 TPE, went first overall to the Orange County Otters. So what gives? What caused this cataclysmic collapse? To start, let’s look at supply and demand.
To make it (hopefully) visually better than a string of numbers in a very long sentence, I’m going to go ahead and list the total number of prospects, the number of prospects above 100 TPE, and the number of prospects above 200 TPE for each position in the following format:
Total | >100 | >200
QB: 7 | 4 | 0
RB: 15 | 8 | 1
WR: 15 | 5 | 2
TE: 11 | 7 | 2
OL: 6 | 2 | 0
DE: 12 | 7 | 1
DT: 8 | 6 | 1
LB: 11 | 8 | 2
CB: 8 | 3 | 1
S: 9 | 2 | 1 (excluding retiree Matt Murphy)
K/P: 6 | 3 | 1
Before we begin further analysis of this, let’s even look at it with a more broad scope of positions:
Total | >100 | >200
QB: 7 | 4 | 0
OFLEX: 30 | 13 | 3
TE: 11 | 7 | 2
OL: 6 | 2 | 0
DL: 20 | 13 | 2
LB: 11 | 8 | 2
DB: 17 | 5 | 2
K/P: 6 | 3 | 1
And now let’s think about demand -- that is, how many of each broad position group a typical team’s offense/defense utilizes on the field for a given play:
QB: 1
OFLEX: 4
TE: 1
OL: 5
DL: 4
LB: 3
DB: 4
K/P: 1
The numbers speak for themselves. Compared to other positions, the offensive flex spot is simply oversaturated, and the case is worse for running backs specifically. Why? Well, a number of reasons. First, compared to other positions, running backs have a higher ceiling when operating at lower TPEs. This means a team doesn’t necessarily have to be in a hurry to draft an active 200 TPE running back if they know a 100 or 120 TPE back will fall to them. This is especially true for teams (all of them) who already have one or more active running backs on their roster; low TPE running backs will have plenty of time to develop in the DSFL until they’re ready to play. Second, even though teams like to have multiple running backs on the roster, they don’t NEED one. A team with, say, 3 wide receivers, 2 tight ends (one of whom could fill in at fullback when necessary), and 1 running back will be in a better position to run most offensive schemes compared to a team who had, say, 2 wide receivers, 1 tight end, and 3 running backs.
So, that explains why running backs, generally, were selected lower than other players with similar TPE levels at different positions. But what it doesn’t explain is why Dax Frost was not the first running back off the board. Or the second. Or the third… he was the fourth.
The first running back selection of the night was Juniped Catfish, picked by the Philadelphia Liberty at a whopping 3rd overall. With 179 TPE, Juniped ranks fourth in TPE among running backs. Fourth among running backs… selected third out of everybody. At first look, this pick doesn’t make much sense. The Liberty still have S16 Philly legend Sam Torenson on the roster above 1000 TPE, as well as S18 stud Fozzy Dotson with over 500. At second look, it still smells a bit fishy (hehe get it? I’m hilarious). After all, it’s not like there won’t be running backs in the massive upcoming class, and as I said, they operate comparatively better at low TPE… we’ll come back to this and why it does, in fact, make sense. Maybe.
The second running back taken was Ed Barker (181 TPE, third among RBs), selected at 18 overall (8th in the second round) by the New Orleans Second Line. Yes, the New Orleans Second Line that famously has star running back duo Forrest Gump and Marcella Toriki. Okay… so, Gump is getting old… but replacing him isn’t a pressing concern considering the circumstances, right? And if it is, I of course mean nothing against Barker, but, they could’ve just taken Frost. I haven’t seen a fall like this since I drafted a max earning QB in the second round!
The third running back? Baby Yoda, who was second in TPE for RBs, and went to the Arizona Outlaws 5 picks before Frost was taken. I won’t talk much about this pick because Baby Yoda (well, his user) has a history in Arizona with the Outlaws. This pick is wholly unsurprising, and I’m not surprised he “fell” to Arizona since I’m sure teams would fear his leaving to join them in free agency.
And finally… Dax “oof” Frost is selected. So what’s the big thing that sets him apart from the lower TPE players of the same position taken above him? His knees. Knees, as I expect everyone knows, are rather important for football players. They’re integral for running, and just generally useful. But they’re more important for running backs than for any other position. Obviously all four of the players I’ve discussed are running backs… but Dax Frost is the only one who HAS to be one. If Baby Yoda has his knees destroyed by hammer wielding mafia members, he can position switch to say, I don’t know, quarterback or something. So can Catfish and Barker. But Dax Frost? He already used his position switch to become a running back in advance of the draft, and ultimately, this was his downfall. Teams drafted other players first because, when they don’t have imminent needs to fill, they can draft a lower TPE running back who will have time to develop and be good at lower TPE anyways… and who can, potentially, switch to fill whatever spot they might have to fill in 2 seasons, whether that be linebacker, wide receiver, whatever. Dax Frost does not leave that option open. Dax Frost oof-ed himself.
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(1,232 words. 1.5x media pay pls)
*The Importance of Timing (The Specialist) - Frostbite - 03-08-2020
Y'know, I'm something of an oof myself
*The Importance of Timing (The Specialist) - infinitempg - 03-08-2020
Dax made an oofda with his late switch
Great write up! Expect to see a few more articles from The Specialist this week.....
*The Importance of Timing (The Specialist) - Frostbite - 03-08-2020
Oh hey, I just realised all of us are former kickers
*The Importance of Timing (The Specialist) - br0_0ker - 03-09-2020
Can you petition/appeal to HO based on the timing of your change and still qualify for an additional change under Rule III. D. 3? You only missed the cutoff by 14 hours.
*The Importance of Timing (The Specialist) - run_CMC - 03-09-2020
(03-08-2020, 11:45 PM)infinitempg Wrote:Great write up!Was it though? Was it really?
Also yes pls post more
*The Importance of Timing (The Specialist) - Duilio05 - 03-09-2020
(03-08-2020, 09:30 PM)run_CMC Wrote:I haven’t seen a fall like this since I drafted a max earning QB in the second round!
Imagine getting a QB in the 5th!