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+---- Thread: *It's closer than you think... WK3 Power Rankings (/showthread.php?tid=20132)
*It's closer than you think... WK3 Power Rankings - Ephenssta - 03-14-2020
Week three of the NSFL is in the books. And with the conclusion of the third week of games comes the third edition of the community power ranking survey! Thank you to the twelve people other than me who filled out a survey. You people are cool, especially since no one this time around put San Jose in first place…
San Jose was put in last place by the voters once again, although this time they did not deserve it. Although no one ranked them higher than seventh, they did not receive the most last place votes. Unfortunately, that wasn’t enough to vault them into ninth and so they fall to last in the eyes of the voters once again. I do not believe this is correct since San Jose is no longer winless while another team is. I find it difficult to put a team with no wins above a team that has not won a game, but that’s exactly what happens. San Jose’s win vaulted them all the way up to seventh in expected wins, where they are now on pace to put up five wins. Through weeks one and two, they were not expected to win more than two.
Arizona, the only winless team left, occupies the ninth place slot. Arizona received the most last place votes, but were lifted by the one lunatic that put them in first over San Jose. That is, again, the major downside of polling the community for things like this. But since I love democracy, I let these votes stand and count for something against my better judgement. Outside of the one moron putting Arizona in fourth, another had them all the way up in fourth. I’m not sure how I feel about two individuals believing that the only remaining winless team belongs in the top half, but it’s certainly not good. You people should get your eyes and brains checked. Following their third consecutive loss, Arizona is now expected to win only 3 games, dropping them below San Jose and into last in this week’s expected wins ranking.
The eight slot was filled by Chicago. They received four top half votes and four ninth place votes, indicating voters are still split on what they expect from Chicago. Chicago was within five points of the teams in front of them. Despite taking a fall in the number of wins they are expected to secure throughout the season, Chicago remains in fourth in the expected wins rankings at a relatively low total of 6 wins. Chicago is one of those teams that I feel really could go either way this season. Their defense has struggled, but their offense is putting up very solid numbers and they could just be suffering from some bad luck in the early season. With four teams at 1-2 in the NSFC, anything is possible down the stretch.
For the first time in the history of the power ranking survey, we have a tie! Sixth and seventh are occupied by Yellowknife and Philadelphia. Both teams received 45 points from the survey, only five points more than Chicago and 14 below the top half. Yellowknife received votes as high as second (again, I recommend some of you get your eyes and brains checked by appropriately licensed professionals), but a massive five voters had them in ninth, bringing them down into a tie with the Liberty (ding dong). Philly received no votes in the top three but voters generally put them in sixth or seventh. According to the expected wins projection, though, Philly comes out on top. Yellowknife dropped into ninth after dropping an expected win, falling to a total of four and into ninth place. Philadelphia fell off slightly, but maintained an expected win total of six, dropping into sixth.
The first team out of the bottom half is Austin. The defending champs received one vote for third and one all the way down in tenth, presumably from a disgruntled fan. Austin has struggled early this season, but has maintained consistent favor among the voters. Most voters had them between fourth and sixth. The expected wins projection was less kind, dropping Austin from sixth to eight and projecting them to win only five games this season, down from six after week two.
Fourth place belongs to Colorado, with only three points more than Austin. Colorado received votes as high as third and most had them in fifth. One voter had them as low as eight. This survey has shown more clearly than the others the unreliability of a poorly constructed sample in an anonymous survey. The expected wins model does not look on Colorado quite as favorably as our voters, however, and places them in fifth with an expected wins total of six.
The top three in this survey stratified themselves more than in the past. There was a greater than 30 point difference between third and fourth, which is by far the biggest jump between any adjacent ranks. New Orleans finds themselves in third. They are one of three undefeated teams and have the fewest points allowed, though Orange County has given up only three more. They received more first place votes than any other team, but were harmed by one voter putting them in sixth and another in last. I’ll urge you for a third time to get professional help. Something is seriously wrong with you. New Orleans is now in first in expected wins, up from third in weeks one and two. They are projected to win 11 games on the season.
Second place went to Orange County. The otters received the fewest first place votes of any top half team, but did not receive a single vote outside of the top five. 11 of the 13 voters placed them in the top three. They are second in the expected wins projections and are expected to win ten games on the season. The ASFC looks to be a primarily two team race between Orange County and New Orleans.
The coveted first place spot belongs, for now, to Baltimore. Each of the top three were separated by a meager four points and Baltimore was the only team to break 100 points. They received only one vote outside of the top half and 7 of the 13 voters had them in either first or second place. Baltimore fell from first in week two to third in the expected wins total this week, dropping from 11 to 10 expected wins. This obviously did not matter to the voters.
The expected wins rankings for this week are:
1. New Orleans – 10.6
2. Orange County – 10.2
3. Baltimore – 9.5
4. Chicago – 5.7 (notice the huge drop between three and four…)
4. Colorado – 5.7 (the rounding favors Chicago, but I’m too lazy to go to multiple decimal places)
4. Philadelphia – 5.7 (the rounding favors Colorado).
7. San Jose – 4.9
8. Austin – 4.7
9. Yellowknife – 3.9
10. Arizona – 3.3
This is only the second season I have kept track of the expected win totals, but it is the first time I have seen a three way tie. The tie obviously goes away when I take away the rounding, but I think it looks neater with only one decimal place and I’ve listed the teams in the order they would be if I wasn’t rounding that much.
The fan power rankings are below:
1. Baltimore – 101 points
2. Orange County – 97
3. New Orleans – 93
4. Colorado – 62
5. Austin – 59
6. Yellowknife – 45
6. Philadelphia – 45
8. Chicago – 40
9. Arizona – 26
10. San Jose - 17
*It's closer than you think... WK3 Power Rankings - .Laser - 03-14-2020
ephenssta Wrote:The expected wins rankings for this week are:13 weeks a season, 5 games a week, so 65 games total. This adds up to 64.2. I'm gonna take a wild guess and say that it's because of the rounding, but wanted to make sure.
1. New Orleans – 10.6
2. Orange County – 10.2
3. Baltimore – 9.5
4. Chicago – 5.7 (notice the huge drop between three and four…)
4. Colorado – 5.7 (the rounding favors Chicago, but I’m too lazy to go to multiple decimal places)
4. Philadelphia – 5.7 (the rounding favors Colorado).
7. San Jose – 4.9
8. Austin – 4.7
9. Yellowknife – 3.9
10. Arizona – 3.3
Also, what do you think the reason for the 4-game dropoff between 3 and 4 is?
*It's closer than you think... WK3 Power Rankings - Vorshayla - 03-14-2020
(03-14-2020, 01:39 PM)Laser Wrote:[quote author=ephenssta date=]The expected wins rankings for this week are:13 weeks a season, 5 games a week, so 65 games total. This adds up to 64.2. I'm gonna take a wild guess and say that it's because of the rounding, but wanted to make sure.
1. New Orleans – 10.6
2. Orange County – 10.2
3. Baltimore – 9.5
4. Chicago – 5.7 (notice the huge drop between three and four…)
4. Colorado – 5.7 (the rounding favors Chicago, but I’m too lazy to go to multiple decimal places)
4. Philadelphia – 5.7 (the rounding favors Colorado).
7. San Jose – 4.9
8. Austin – 4.7
9. Yellowknife – 3.9
10. Arizona – 3.3
Also, what do you think the reason for the 4-game dropoff between 3 and 4 is?[/quote]
Not having PickSix on your team. My WAR is 4.0
Without me, San Jose would be at 0.9
Facts.
*It's closer than you think... WK3 Power Rankings - Ephenssta - 03-16-2020
Quote:[QUOTE=Laser]
13 weeks a season, 5 games a week, so 65 games total. This adds up to 64.2. I'm gonna take a wild guess and say that it's because of the rounding, but wanted to make sure.
Also, what do you think the reason for the 4-game dropoff between 3 and 4 is?
It's 100% because of the rounding. Excel spits out like 8 decimals, but I find it looks much cleaner with just one. This one was a little more chaotic though because there were so many teams tied.
The projections rely entirely on PF and PA, so all the drop really means is that there was enough of a change in one of those two numbers to sink the win totals. And this early in the season that happens relatively often. Stuff like that will happen less and less the longer the season goes.