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+---- Thread: *Wk 4 Power Rankings: It's STILL close edition (/showthread.php?tid=20205)
*Wk 4 Power Rankings: It's STILL close edition - Ephenssta - 03-17-2020
NSFL power rankings: Week 4 Edition
The fourth week of NSFL games is finished and the results of the community survey are in! Thanks to the seven people other than me who voted in this edition. Your input makes it easier for me to make money.
The voters have spoken and Arizona takes last place in this week’s poll. Arizona remains the only team without a win so far in the season and is giving up nearly double the points their scoring. Arizona received one seventh place vote, one eight place vote, and six tenth place votes. They received fewer than half the points of the second-to-last team and were one of only two teams to receive a last place vote. Their struggles extend beyond the voting and into the expected wins outcomes for this week, where they also place last. They are expected to win a meager 2.3 games, down from 3.3 after week three in which they were also at the bottom of the totem pole. At this point, I think it’s safe to say you shouldn’t be expecting a turnaround.
The voters slotted San Jose in at ninth. San Jose received votes as high as seventh and was the only other team receiving last place votes, though they only received two. San Jose may still be suffering from some negative bias from the voters, as their numbers outside of the win column are not too terrible. San Jose is now expected to win five games, up slightly from 4.9 the week before. This puts them in the seventh slot, slightly above where the voters see them. Though seventh isn’t a massive improvement, it’s certainly better than tenth.
Eighth place belongs to Chicago this week. Chicago has been in the news a lot recently, between the publicly derided trade with Philadelphia and the recent articles from WALDO and steelsound. The Butchers are hoping that their recent trade will elevate them into the playoff picture in what seems to be a weak NSFC this season. Chicago received votes as high as fifth and as low as ninth and the votes were relatively evenly spread between those poles. Chicago’s expected win totals dropped from 5.7 to 5.4, moving them from fourth to fifth in the expected wins rankings this week (I forgot to list them on the tweet. This was an honest mistake and will be corrected shortly). The expected wins numbers suggest that it is possible a small improvement could elevate Chicago into the playoff picture this season. It’s still too early to be sure, though. In any case, they’re losing the battle of public opinion.
Seventh goes to Philadelphia. Philadelphia is coming off another disappointing loss and has been steadily falling this season. They received one vote as high as fourth and one as low as ninth, again showing a relatively even spread between the two extremes. They were kept out of sixth by only one point. Philadelphia’s expected win totals fell slightly from 5.7 to 5.5, but they actually saw an increase in rank from sixth to fourth. The expected win totals are still incredibly close around that fourth place spot, so it looks to be a very tight race to lock up the second playoff spot in the NSFC.
Sixth place this week belongs to Colorado. Colorado edged out Philadelphia by only one vote and is one of three NSFC teams that have a 1-3 record through the first four games. They received one vote in fourth and two in ninth, once again showing a remarkably even spread between the poles, though they finished slightly ahead of the Liberty. Colorado’s 4.2 expected wins drops them all the way down to ninth, down from 5.7 the week before which put them in fifth. That is easily one of the biggest shifts between weeks three and four and is not a good indication for Colorado moving forward, though as I’ve referenced several times throughout this article the playoff race in the NSFC is still wide open.
The first team to escape the bottom half this week is Yellowknife. Yellowknife received one vote as high as third and none lower than eighth, elevating them into the top half in the eyes of the voters. Yellowknife currently holds the second slot in the NSFC with a 2-2 record, despite having the second most points allowed in the division at 123 and being outscored by Chicago, Philadelphia, and Baltimore. This difference holds Yellowknife to 4.9 expected wins, up from 3.9 the week before. Despite the jump in expected wins, they still fall to eight in that ranking.
Fourth belongs to Austin, who are third in the ASFC at 2-2. Austin received four votes in fourth place and one as low as eight. With half the voters putting them in fourth, they elevated above other teams to obtain the fourth place slot this week. After their week four performance, they are now expected to win 5.3 games, moving them up into sixth after they were in eight and only expected to win 4.7 the week before. The ASFC, unfortunately for Austin, has so far been dominated by New Orleans and Orange County, both of which have appeared nearly unstoppable through the first four weeks.
Third place belongs to Baltimore, the leader of and only undefeated team in the NSFC. Baltimore received two votes for first place and the other six in third. The top three were separated only by seven points, but Baltimore was pretty clearly the third place choice here. Their expected wins total also brings them into third at 9.3 expected wins, down slightly from 9.5 last week where they were also third. Baltimore has occupied each of the top three places in expected wins at some point this season but has never dipped below third to this point in the season. They appear to have a solid grip on first in the NSFC through four weeks.
Second this week belongs to Orange County, who are coming off a massive win in week four. Orange County leads the league in offense with 154 points scored and is second in points against, giving up fewer than everyone but New Orleans. Orange County received three first place votes, three second place votes, and one fifth place vote. That one voter should probably see a psychiatrist. They lead in expected wins, rising to an expected total of 11.1 after the dominant showing this week. They improved from 10.2 last week and took the first place spot.
First in the eyes of the voters this week is New Orleans. They received three first place votes and five second place votes, edging out Orange County for the top spot. New Orleans is another team that has never left the top three in the expected wins totals. They fell this week from first to second, despite improving their expected wins total from 10.6 to 11. Orange County’s performance was just too strong. The game of the week in week five will undoubtedly be New Orleans going on the road to battle Orange County. The two will get a rematch in week eleven. The outcomes of those two games will likely set the playoff picture for the ASFC.
The results of the power ranking survey are:
1. New Orleans
2. Orange County
3. Baltimore
4. Austin
5. Yellowknife
6. Colorado
7. Philadelphia
8. San Jose
9. Arizona
10. Chicago
The expected wins after week four are:
1. Orange County – 11.1
2. New Orleans – 11.0
3. Baltimore – 9.3
4. Philadelphia – 5.5
5. Chicago – 5.4
6. Austin – 5.3
7. San Jose – 5.0
8. Yellowknife – 4.9
9. Colorado – 4.2
10. Arizona – 2.3
Although there are no ties to speak of this week, I am still impressed by just how close the 4-8 part of the rankings are. All five teams are within .6 expected wins of each other through four weeks of the season. Many of those teams are battling for the second slot in the NSFC which is still very much up for grabs at this point in the season.
*Wk 4 Power Rankings: It's STILL close edition - Jay_Doctor - 03-17-2020
Doot doot!
*Wk 4 Power Rankings: It's STILL close edition - AdamS - 03-17-2020
Shout to to the 2 people who voted Austin 8th at 2-2 after 3 road games and playing both nola and oco
Please dont vote in real life
*Wk 4 Power Rankings: It's STILL close edition - .Laser - 03-17-2020
Who tf put OCO in 5th
I just wanna talk
*Wk 4 Power Rankings: It's STILL close edition - Ephenssta - 03-18-2020
(03-17-2020, 03:22 PM)AdamS Wrote:Shout to to the 2 people who voted Austin 8th at 2-2 after 3 road games and playing both nola and oco
Please dont vote in real life
Some of the votes I get are absolutely insane
*Wk 4 Power Rankings: It's STILL close edition - TomHanks - 03-18-2020
(03-18-2020, 05:17 AM)Ephenssta Wrote:Some of the votes I get are absolutely insane
Is this the first week someone hasn’t voted NOLA last? Lmao