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+---- Thread: *An in-depth analysis of season 20 in the DSFL (/showthread.php?tid=20483)
*An in-depth analysis of season 20 in the DSFL - gbfn - 03-27-2020
Offense sells tickets – defense wins championships – still true? An In-Depth Analysis of the NSFL seasons.
Everybody knows this famous quote from Paul Bryant 1982. But is this still reality in today’s NSFL?
To make an educated guess I have looked at the results of the last season and analyzed the outcome. How far have the league’s best offenses and defenses gotten?
First of all, I took a look at the most general stat DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average). But what does DVOA mean? Per definition DVOA calculates a team’s success based on the down-and-distance then compares the teams DVOA to the league’s average. A 10% DVOA means that it is 10% better than the league’s average.
Calculation the overall yards per play for the season 20 we can see, that the league average for yards allowed per play is 5,0. Knowing that we can calculate the different DVOA per team.
Here are the respective stats for either team:
Team W/L DVOA
Myrtle Beach Buccaneers 12-2 16%
Tijuana Luchadores 5-9 8%
Minnesota Grey Ducks 12-2 1%
Kansas City Coyotes 5-9 -3%
Norfolk Seawolves 6-8 -6%
Portland Pythons 2-12 -10%
As we can see the average DVOA is quite significant when comparing its result to the records after the regular season. There are 2 teams which over- or underperformed respectively seen to its DVOA. The Minnesota Grey Ducks performed better than expected, while the record of the Tijuana Luchadores fell short of the projection.
Now to the play-offs: In the semifinals the Norfolk Seawolves got wiped by the Myrtle Beach Buccaneers 10-43. In the other game The Minnesota Grey Duck fully met their expectations and won over the Kansas City Coyotes 36-7. So, after knowing the results of the semifinals the trend seems to be correct, although we have to consider, that these to teams were highly favored.
When we project the finals between the Buccaneers (16% DVOA) and the Grey Ducks (1% DVOA) everybody would assume that the Buccaneers should have the edge over the Grey Ducks. The result finally was a bit surprising, as the Grey Ducks won 28-3.
Concluding we can see that there is a trend towards the teams with better DVOA-stats. They perform better especially in the regular season. In the Postseason these teams also seem to be more successful. But there are also other key statistics for measuring the performance of defenses.
Yards allowed
Let’s look at other comparisons. When looking at the absolute numbers for Yards allowed the result is as following:
Team W/L Yards allowed
Myrtle Beach Buccaneers 12-2 3809
Minnesota Grey Ducks 12-2 4140
Tijuana Luchadores 5-9 4237
Kansas City Coyotes 5-9 4383
Norfolk Seawolves 6-8 4964
Portland Pythons 2-12 5293
Here we can see that the outcome of the regular season correlates perfectly to the yards allowed. It seems true that the best teams in the league always have an above par defense. So far so good.
Points allowed
This stat really is self-explanatory. Which team gave up the fewest points?
Team W/L Points allowed
Myrtle Beach Buccaneers 12-2 119
Minnesota Grey Ducks 12-2 186
Norfolk Seawolves 6-8 271
Kansas City Coyotes 5-9 284
Tijuana Luchadores 5-9 288
Portland Pythons 2-12 343
Again we see, that the points allowed statistic is also very significant. Of course this shouldn’t surprise anyone as this directly affects the outcome of the games. At least more than Yards allowed or Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average.
?
Offense
Let’s look at the other side of the ball. How well did the best offenses perform in the past season?
The most important stat there is of course “Points scored”.
Team W/L Points scored
Minnesota Grey Ducks 12-2 390
Myrtle Beach Buccaneers 12-2 290
Norfolk Seawolves 6-8 241
Kansas City Coyotes 5-9 228
Tijuana Luchadores 5-9 203
Portland Pythons 2-12 139
Of all the teams listed, we see that offense also contributes a lot to the teams success. It seams as if this stat es even more accurate for projecting the regular season outcome.
To comparison here are the passing yards gained per team:
Team W/L Passing Yards
Norfolk Seawolves 6-8 2378
Tijuana Luchadores 5-9 2180
Kansas City Coyotes 5-9 2016
Minnesota Grey Ducks 12-2 2003
Myrtle Beach Buccaneers 12-2 1899
Portland Pythons 2-12 1339
As we see here Passing yards are not equally important to success as it seems that in the DSFL the best teams tend to pass less often. Of course one reason for this could be that the teams like the Grey Ducks or the Buccaneers start out strong and can run the clock down afterwards, while the other team has to play catch up and starts throwing the ball more often.
But how do the rushing yards stack up?
Team W/L Rushing Yards
Myrtle Beach Buccaneers 12-2 3061
Minnesota Grey Ducks 12-2 3049
Kansas City Coyotes 5-9 2290
Norfolk Seawolves 6-8 2266
Portland Pythons 2-12 2230
Tijuana Luchadores 5-9 2092
As expected we can see here that the assumption was correct. The success of the best teams seams to be correlating very well on the ability to run the ball.
The best teams of the season were those teams that managed to establish the run and controlled the ball.
Conclusion
After facing all facts and doing my best to interpret the as good as I could, my guess would be that the recipe for success in the DSFL would be a consistent rushing attack and an above average defense.
This seems quite old school, as the trend everywhere seems to go to airing out the ball and beat the opponent through the air. Surprisingly in the DSFL this is not the case. Here is my guess on what the reasons for that are.
It seems to be the case that the quarterbacks in the DSFL are not quite ready yet to lead a pass heavy offense. They tend to turn the ball over too much. Teams, who can run the ball consistently have much less room for error.
Now, what is the best tactic to be successful in the league?
Rush the ball, run down the clock consistently and invest in a good defense. The key is complimentary football.
*An in-depth analysis of season 20 in the DSFL - RainDelay - 03-27-2020
Awesome article man, love to see new guys jump right in!
Looking forward to more of your stuff
*An in-depth analysis of season 20 in the DSFL - slothfacekilla - 03-27-2020
Throw more you cowards!