+- International Simulation Football League (https://forums.sim-football.com)
+-- Forum: Community (https://forums.sim-football.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=5)
+--- Forum: Media (https://forums.sim-football.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=37)
+---- Forum: Graded Articles (https://forums.sim-football.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=38)
+---- Thread: *Expansion's effect on prediction and TPE (/showthread.php?tid=20515)
*Expansion's effect on prediction and TPE - Troen - 03-28-2020
TL;DR - I expect expansion to add 5 TPE per player per season due to having more predictions if nothing else changes.
BigValor1580 Wrote:There’s a benefit to expansion
More TPE
Max predictions: 2.5->3
Week x2: 5->5.5
I saw this post in discord this morning and it got me thinking. Assuming that there are no changes to how predictions work, having another game each week should increase average TPE gained by active players. But how much by?
So far in S21, the average TPE from predictions has been
W1: 1.28 - 250 users
W2: 1.94 - 217
W3: 1.42 - 224
W4: 1.94 - 217
W5: 1.31 - 220
W6/7: 3.51 - 227
W8: 1.56 - 205
W9: 1.23 - 207
(one note: I assumed week 1's 9 exempt players were constant for all weeks and didn't de-duplicate their names from the claim list)
Or added up, correct picks on just over 28 of the 45 games in the first 9 weeks with an overall 63% pick success rate. Adding together progress so far gives about 3140 raw TPE earned from predictions (rounded (average * number in thread) and then summed). That doesn't quite match the reality given that half TPE rounds up, though. Of the 241 users with responses in week 1, 113 (~46.89%) of them had half point claims. So, rather than the nominal TPE from the week of 320, the actual TPE claimed was more like 456*, 42.5% more than the 'raw' TPE. Applying that correction factor to the nominal base of 3140 gives about 4475 TPE claimed. Applying the same analysis to week 2 where the average was closer to 2 gives 543 claimable TPE vs. 421 raw for a 28.98% increase factor. That would change the season TPE to about 4050.
(*: Aside: I didn't clean the data in the thread at all so eg I noticed at least 1 repeated name and so the math doesn't perfectly hold up)
Extending the averages to the full season, I'd expect raw TPE of 4536 for 13 games with a claimed range between 5851 and 6464. I'll use the midpoint of 6158 for presumptive TPE claimed from predictions.
So, what does adding another 1 game per week at a 63% prediction rate look like? I'm going to just add (0.5 * .63) to the average each week which gives new averages of
W1: 1.60
W2: 2.26
W3: 1.74
W4: 2.26
W5: 1.63
W6/7: 4.14
W8: 1.88
W9: 1.55
That then changes the raw TPE to 3704 and claimed TPE to between 4777 and 5278, or 5350 raw for the season with 6900 to 7624 being the claim range and 7262 as the presumptive midpoint. Compared to the 10 team season, I would therefore expect that predictions would provide 1104 more TPE next season. With an average of 221 participants, that would work out to 5 more TPE per player. I contrast this against a naive guess of 13 week * 0.5 more possible TPE * 63 % prediction success rate = 4.1 more TPE per season.
So with the numbers being established, are we likely to see any changes to the current prediction format? I don't know how previous expansions have changed anything. A simple option to not increase TPE gain would be to round down rather than up for predictions. However, that would create an inconsistency with other TPE tasks and probably actually decrease the TPE gained. I could see maybe doing something else to compensate, such as only having 3 ulti week tasks instead of 4 to reduce the max TPE earning by 2 (3 * 2.5 = 7.5 rounding up to 8 vs 4 * 2.5 = 10 now) and keeping the consistency in rounding. But, seeing as I haven't been around long enough to see how the head office handles this kind of change, I don't know if that's a likely direction or not.
*Expansion's effect on prediction and TPE - Bruins10 - 03-28-2020
Always so interesting to see your articles man!
*Expansion's effect on prediction and TPE - Memento Mori - 03-28-2020
I'd definitely be interested to learn how stuff like this has been handled in the past and what plans HO/the PPT have, as enough TPE inflation will have a noticeable effect on past/present/future max TPE.
*Expansion's effect on prediction and TPE - iamslm22 - 03-28-2020
Round .5 prediction points down and you mostly solve it.
*Expansion's effect on prediction and TPE - nunccoepi - 03-28-2020
the league should just let it be imo. for the average user an extra 5tpe per season over maybe 7 season career is only 35 tpe. That's not enough to break the game for probably anyone, much less the average user that doesn't max out their player.
*Expansion's effect on prediction and TPE - iseedoug - 03-28-2020
(03-28-2020, 10:37 AM)nunccoepi Wrote:the league should just let it be imo. for the average user an extra 5tpe per season over maybe 7 season career is only 35 tpe. That's not enough to break the game for probably anyone, much less the average user that doesn't max out their player.
agreed