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*Top TE destinations - yonggarius - 04-07-2020
Part 4 of top destinations series is here! This article will focus on tight ends, and I will analyze how much different teams need a tight end and how their draft strategies will vary, as usual.
Before we begin
Tight ends are not the position of highest demand. Among 10 NSFL teams that currently have a roster, 8 have 1 tight end on the roster while 2, the Hawks and the Wraiths, have none. As two TE formations are not usually used in NSFL games and slot receivers are preferred to playing a tight end in the slot, only one tight end is essentially needed per a NSFL team.
As demand is small, supply of tight ends are quite small, too. At first, there were 24 tight ends in this draft class. That is quite a huge number, even for a big class(RB class had 20 total members for comparison). However, more than two thirds of that number dropped out over the course of DSFL season, and only seven prospects updated by the time of the april 4th update. Those seven can be categorized like this.
Tier 1: Jeffery Phillips(247)
Tier 1.5: Heath Evans(212)
Tier 2: James Angler(172), Dontello Arrabiatta(154)
Tier 3: Von Hayes(111), Zee Rechs(95), Nick Marksman(90)
+Daniel Geoege(182) did not update in april 4th, but had updated in march 28th and was seen recently.
Those seven, plus George who will belong to tier 2, will be the tight ends who will be taken throughout the meaningful rounds of this season's NSFL draft.
New Orleans Second Line Starting tight end for the Second Line is Austin McCormick, who is a S19 player. As he has several seasons before he even enters regression, McCormick will not relinquish he starter position for the forseeable future, and therefore there will be no need for tight ends under status quo. However, that changes after expansion draft is factored in. McCormick has a possibility of being unprotected in expansion draft due to too many talents in Second Line's roster. If he is taken, the Second Line will definitely need a tight end. However, as they seems to set their sights on some specific players in first round- where top prospect Phillips will most likely go- they will instead go after tier 1.5~ 2 prospects.
Summary: Will not draft a TE unless McCormick is gone. Will chase a 1.5~ 2 tier prospect in that case.
Yellowknife Wraiths The Wraiths are one of the two teams that doesn't have a tight end in their NSFL roster, choosing to use 3 wide receivers instead. However one of those receiver spots will be empty, as Rayne Gordon will be automatically taken in the expansion draft as he is player of Sailfish GM Raindelay. It is a possibility that the Wraiths will decide to fill that gap in receiving corps with a tight end. In that case, the Wraiths are in prime position to draft Phillips as there aren't that many other holes in their roster. But there is a equally large chance that the Wraiths will continue their current scheme with 3 receivers, drafting a receiver in a tight end's place.
Summary: 50/50 chance of drafting a tight end. Might go after Phillips if they decide to draft one.
Baltimore Hawks The Hawks are the other team who lacks a tight end in their roster. And in their case, I can see the trend continuing for several seasons to come as there are no immediate need at the wide receiver position. So the Hawks won't go after the top tight end prospects, especially they have other needs like cornerbacks. However, they might decide to change the scheme in long term and draft a tight end as a eventual replacement for Errol Maddox. A tier 2 or 3 prospect will be best suited for that role as they will be available to pick with a mid round pick that the Hawks are likely to spend on a receiver or a tight end.
Summary: 50/50 chance of drafting a tight end. Will go after tier 2- 3 prospects if they draft one.
Orange County Otters The Starting tight end for the Otters is Johnny Blaze, a S13 veteran who is deep into regression. Blaze might play for a few more years, but then there is a realistic possibility of him being unprotected in the expansion draft. So, the Otters will need a tight end to replace blaze. And as they don't have many other holes in their roster, they are the prime candidate to be the destination of top prospect Jeffrey Phillips. Otters' pick in 1st round, 11th or 12th, is the ideal position to draft him, and the fact that Phillips has some connections with the team will be an added bonus.
Summary: prime destination for Jeffery Phillips.
Austin Copperheads Copperheads' starting tight end is Peter Larson, who is a S16 player. Even though Larson has a season remaining before he hits regression, he might find himself replaced in a season or two as he seems to not be a max earner and had been inactive for about a month currently. So the Copperheads will possibly have a need for a tight end. However, that need won't be urgent enough to prompt them to trade up into late 1st round and take Phillips, so I think their main target will be 1.5~ 2 tier prospects like Evans, George, Angler or Arrabiatta, who will be available through 2nd to 5th round, as any tight end they draft will need to sit in the DSFL for at least a season and develop, anyway.
Summary: might target tier 1.5~ 2 prospects to find a long term replacement for Larson.
Colorado Yeti Earl Sauce, the Yeti's starter, is only a S18 player, so it will be three seasons before he enteres regression. And even then, Sauce is very likely to withstand several seasons of regression as he seems to be a max earner. So, the Yeti has no real reason to draft a tight end under status quo as they won't have roster spot for another tight end. The only chance the Yeti will take a tight end is the unlikely case of Sauce being unprotected and taken in the expansion draft. In that case, the Yeti will seek to draft a tier 2-3 tight end in mid to lower rounds to replace Sauce, or might choose to change their scheme and not draft a tight end, as they already have a good receiving corps without Sauce.
Summary: unlikely to draft a quarterback unless Sauce is taken, might be a 50/50 chance even if Sauce leaves. Will target tier 2-3 prospects if they draft any TEs.
Chicago Butchers Osiris Firestorm- Fjord is one of the few active players of the Butchers. Also, he is automatically protected from the expansion draft as he is last year's rookie. Wven though several people advised the butchers to trade Firestorm- Fjord away for draft picks before new management was established, Firestorm- Fjord will likely be a cornerstone of the butchers rebuild, and will continue to be the starting tight end for the butchers for many seasons to come. So, there is no real reason to draft another tight end in this draft, especially as the butchers only hold 4 picks in the first 10 rounds of the draft apart from the second rounder they need to draft their GM Bayley's player, and will need to use those very carefully in order to mark a successful start to their rebuild.
Summary: Will not draft any tight end.
Philadelphia Liberty Liberty's starting tight end Avon Blocksdale Jr is a S19 player. So he won't be entering regression for quite some time. And it is very likely that Blocksdale will keep the starting job until he retires, as he seems to be showing nice progress. That means tight end is not a position the Liberty is concerned about until something drastic- like blocksdale being unprotected and taken in the expansion draft- happens. In that case, the Liberty will move to fill the gap caused by Blocksdale's departure by drafting one of the tier 1.5~ 2 tight ends in mid rounds.
Summary: unlikely to draft any TE unless Blocksdale Jr is gone. Will target tier 1.5~ 2 prospects in that case.
Arizona Outlaws Outlaws' starting tight end Jammerson Irving will enter regression this offseason. Also, he had been inactive for a long time, about five months to be more definitive. Because of that the Outlaws will need a tight end, whether or not Irving is taken in the expansion draft(Irving is very likely to be unprotected in the expansion draft). However, hat need is not as urgent as their other needs, like a defensive end, so the Outlaws will target tier 1.5~ 2 prospects using one of their abundant mid round picks.
Summary: Will target tier 1.5~ 2 prospects.
San Jose Sabercats The Sabercats are another team that has a rookie tight end- Leon Mcdavid- who is auto protected in the expansion draft process, as a starter. Mcdavid is max earning and will hold on to the Savercats starter job for a very long time as long as he continues to earn like he currently does. As Mcdavid has a lot of seasons of production left, there is no reason for the Sabercats to draft another tight end in this draft, as athe tight end drafted in this draft isn't likely to get the starting job.
Summary: unlikely to draft any tight end
Honolu Hahalua &Sarasota Sailfish 
I clustered both expansion teams together as they have no definite roster apart from their GM players yet, and will have similar draft strategies, at least where tight ends are considered. As none of the expansion GM players is a tight end, the primary strategy for them is to snag one via the expansion draft as several tight ends are projected to be unprotected in that process. Even if they fail to acquire one, however, they are unlikely to make a move for top prospect in the draft as tight end is not considered a crucial position of offense. In fact, I think the only scenario that the
either expansion team drafts a tight end is when one drops to them as the best player available.
Summary: unlikely to draft any tight end unless one falls to them as BPA.
*Top TE destinations - gucci - 04-07-2020
Very cool topic for analysis. For some reason, TE is massively undervalued in the NSFL right now, but I can see the top 3-5 guys going surprisingly early.
*Top TE destinations - Thor - 04-07-2020
Seems pretty accurate from what I've heard from teams scouting so far. I'd say a couple of the teams that you've got listed as late drafters/not interested at all will surprise you with their draft strategy though - several scouts have told me they'd be very keen to play a TE in the slot to run a two TE set more regularly. Good analysis though!
*Top TE destinations - yonggarius - 04-07-2020
I'm quite sure the GMs will have some surprises up their sleeves. And my analysis is only based on suferficial needs and that can easily change, as somebody can position change, etc. The second bit is a news for me. It'll be interesting to see some more variety of strategy in the NSFL.
*Top TE destinations - Rradum - 04-07-2020
TE Gang Gang