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+---- Thread: *S22 Draft: Offense vs Defense (/showthread.php?tid=21015)
*S22 Draft: Offense vs Defense - Symmetrik - 04-11-2020
By my count, there's 287 players in this draft. The player tracker includes 294, but there's several bots, and for some reason a duplicate Tony Baloney, which links to his update page. With those removed, I count 287.
Immediately, my first surprise here when breaking down the offense vs defense in this draft - there's 170 defensive players vs just 117 offensive. We knew this was a deep class, especially at defensive positions. But that is a massive disparity when typically offense is the flashier position that draws more users. And I included kickers in the offensive count.
If we group it by tiers, on each side of the ball:
Over 50 TPE:
Offense - 76
Defense - 126
Over 100 TPE:
Offense - 49
Defense - 61
Over 150 TPE:
Offense - 36
Defense - 44
Over 200 TPE:
Offense - 18
Defense - 23
Over 240 TPE:
Offense - 3
Defense - 2
So defense had the quantity for sure - and make no mistake, they still do - but offense certainly closed the gap in terms of quality. Once you cross that 100 TPE mark, you see the gap has really closed in the number of available players.
So enough about the quantities. What about the TPE counts?
Defenders come out with a grand total of 17,224 TPE, while offense comes out with 12,533. But the averages come out in favour of offense, as that bottom tier really drags defense down. 107 average TPE for offensive players, 101 for defensive players. If we cut out that lower tier, and include only players with 100 TPE or more, defense takes the cake with a 177 TPE average, while offense comes out with 173. If we jump all the way up to the top of the list, the players with 200 TPE or more, offense once again comes out with the better average, 217 TPE to 215 TPE for defense.
Now, the most interesting comparison I want to look at here is a full set of starters on both sides of the ball. If we take the highest TPE players at each position for however many spots are needed, and compare those. The biggest challenge I had with this was: Which formations to compare?
Well screw it. I'll compare a bunch. For a set with a fullback, I just used the 2nd best RB
Basic I formation vs basic 4-3 defense.
![[Image: unknown.png]](https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/574442303226380290/698651389349462056/unknown.png)
So, I could kind of predict this, and realistically it would be the same in every formation. OL struggles to fill up the spots, while the defensive talent is spread all over the place. There's plenty of offensive talent, but just not much on that OL. The lowest TPE spot on that defense goes to the #3 linebacker, at 207. On the offensive line, there's only 1 player above 207. The lowest TPE player on offense is 64 TPE below the lowest on defense. Still the offense is at just a 123 TPE disadvantage. If over half of that is 1 player, the offense overall still has a strong showing.
Singleback set vs 3-4 defense
![[Image: unknown.png]](https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/574442303226380290/698654392030855279/unknown.png)
This one is very similar, both sides are lower in TPE, as the #3 WR is below the #2 RB - though not by nearly as much as the defense drops. In going to a 3-4, the defense drops a quality defensive tackle in exchange for a 4th linebacker. Linebacker is already the weakest position group for defense, as even the #3 LB was the lowest TPE starter for this group. Adding the 4th drops them further. Considering the detriment the OL faces, only a 111 TPE deficit between starters is pretty good for the offense on this one.
Empty backfield vs dime defense
![[Image: unknown.png]](https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/574442303226380290/698655288927977472/unknown.png)
Alright this one swings heavily to the defense. a 220 TPE discrepancy. The defense cuts out some of their weakest position group in exchange for 2 more DBs - who I treated as either safety or CB (though the difference would be 1 TPE if I treated the extra 2 as CBs). The DBs are a much deeper class for the defense. On offense the WRs put up a valiant effort, but we cut out 2 of the highest TPE "groups" for the offense, dropping a RB and TE from the formation. Those 2 players were the 2 highest TPE players for the offense on the field. Honestly, I'm surprised it only fell to a 220 TPE discrepancy, I thought it'd be more than that. In terms of DDSPF, there is no empty backfield sets, the best is 3 WRs in Spread & Shotgun formations, which is really just singleback formation.
So comparing them strictly on DDSPF formations, we saw most of that in the above comparisons. There's 5 formations on both sides of the ball, but offense uses the same set of players in I/Pro Set & Spread/Shotgun. So there's really only 3 different comparisons to run, and we looked at 2 of them. The last DDSPF formation would be Two TE, which just replaces the FB with a 2nd TE. Which doesn't change much for the offense compared to the other 2 formations.
The defense has 2 different but very similar formations in DDSPF that we haven't looked at. Both nickel defenses, one is the classic nickel of 4 DL, and one is a 3-3-5. The latter puts the defense at almost exactly the same TPE level as base 4-3. The difference between the 2nd DT and the 3rd CB is only 1 TPE. After seeing how the first couple formations lined up, it was clear that the classic nickel formation would be the defense's best. It cuts out their lowest TPE player, LB #3, and replaces them with the 3rd CB who is slightly higher.
So who's on those "All S22 Teams"?
![[Image: unknown.png]](https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/574442303226380290/698660387721052260/unknown.png)
![[Image: unknown.png]](https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/574442303226380290/698661841584390183/unknown.png)
So, the defense wins this battle. The OL certainly drags down the overall level of the offense - simply because you have to dip down to the #5 OL to complete the formations. It certainly is weaker anyway, but that just exacerbates it. Even if we disregard that though, this defense presents a fearsome lineup. That's a high end defense, and one of the many reasons that defensive players will dominate the 1st round and most of the next 2 as well.
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