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+---- Thread: *How to Predict the Season Like a "Pro" (/showthread.php?tid=21470)
*How to Predict the Season Like a "Pro" - Cheech65 - 04-21-2020
As you probably know, the S22 predictions Point Task is still available for the rest of the preseason (AKA this week). If you find yourself struggling to decide on which teams you think will dominate their conferences, look no further than this walkthrough of the process. You will either be enlightened or entertained, no in between.
-Preparations-
• I open up the history of both the ASFC and the NSFC championships, as well as the Ultimus Bowl. This is to study the historical trends. I have no idea of any of the history of this league, so establishing this knowledge early is key.
• Check up on the S22 Draft recap. Teams picking up valuable new players might have advantage at those positions, but also might just be filling gaps left by retirees.
• I do NOT open the retirement forum. It’s far too much information to be shuffling through for something this small scale. I’ll be alright without it.
-Making Predictions-
I’ll start with the NFSC. It is first according to the submission format, after all.
In my eyes, the top spot is a no-brainer. The Yellowknife Wraiths have not only appeared in the last 5 NFSC Championships, they’ve won the last 4. Easy pick for 1st.
The fight for 2nd was more difficult. The Baltimore Hawks have appeared at 4/5 of the past 5 Championships, but with only 1 win. The Colorado Yeti appeared 2 seasons ago, but did not win. However, I decided to pick the Yeti to place 2nd, because the Hawks seemed to be in a stagnant position, whereas the Yeti seem to be on an upward turn. Both teams bolstered their defenses in the Draft, but the Yeti also made some early round offensive picks, which –to me- shows more unpredictability and therefore more potential. Thus, I put the Yeti in 2nd and the Hawks in 3rd.
For 4th, I decided on Philadelphia Liberty. This was primarily due to their strong Draft position. They had a lot of early round picks, but to me that seems to mean they’re rebuilding or restructuring, and probably do not have the tools to crack the Top 3. At least not yet. Next season might be a different story.
For 5th and 6th, I could have honestly gone either way. For 5th I decided on the Sarasota Sailfish because they’re GMs are well-experienced after winning in the DSFL. Plus, they too had a strong Draft position following a relatively successful Expansion Draft.
That left me with the Chicago Butchers in 6th, a choice I made mainly due to their lack of Draft presence. They seemed to have far fewer early-round picks compared to the back end, the reason for which I do not know. I’d have to guess that they traded them away for earlier picks next year, or perhaps even in the last Draft. If it’s the former, this must be a start of a rebuild, or perhaps I’m grossly undervaluing this team as they may have traded for players to bolster their lineup (this is probably the case and I apologize). If it’s the latter, then Chicago must have failed to perform with their rookies last year, and might do well this time around. Once again, I do not know definitively and I apologize. They probably won’t place last if I’m being honest, but my thought process tends to draw towards worst-case outcomes.
Time for the ASFC.
For 1st, a perhaps expected pick: The New Orleans Second Line. They not only won the ASFC Championship last season (in their third consecutive appearance there), they won the Ultimus. I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt, especially considering that they had a strong draft, securing solid picks for both the defense and offense.
For 2nd place, another tough choice. Ultimately, I decide to go with the Orange County Otters. This is mostly due to their historical dominance in their conference. They’ve played in all but 1 ASFC Championship, winning 3 of the last 5. On top of this, they lost last season to NO in overtime, so the odds are pretty good for OC giving them a run for their money once again. They may seem stagnated, but they’re stuck on top if anywhere.
In 3rd, I’ve got the Austin Copperheads. They were S20 ASFC Conference and Ultimus Champions, but fell down last season. They, too, had a strong draft position this year, but I’m not convinced that they’ll be able to overcome the two powerhouses above them as they did in S20.
In 4th place, the San Jose Sabercats. Historically, they’ve performed well, just not recently. Like the rest of the ASFC, their Draft seemed to go well, so I’m not expecting them to suddenly jump up in the ranks.
In 5th place I’ve got the Arizona Outlaws. Like San Jose, they’ve had conference success in the past, but even less recently. They had a lot of early-round Draft picks, which to me seems like a rebuilding move. Their team will be younger than their opponents, at least from what I can tell, which may not bode well during crunch time.
Finally in 6th, I have the Honolulu Hahalua. Once again, I’ve got them at the bottom because they are a new team. Despite a successful Expansion Draft and regular season Draft, I don’t think that the Hahalua are quite ready to contend with the dominant teams in this conference.
-Conclusions-
When it comes to deciding the regular season winner, I choose the Second Line. They seem to have a better trend than the Wraiths right now. Though the Wraiths have historically made it through the playoffs, I think that New Orleans will beat them out during the regular season.
I’m fairly confident in these picks, other than the bottom 3 of the NFSC. I’m not counting on it, per se, but I think that out of both lists, those 3 are the most likely to be mixed around.
To wrap up: be sure to submit your own predictions before the deadline. Maybe you’ll be able to beat this self-proclaimed guru.
*How to Predict the Season Like a "Pro" - Warner - 04-21-2020
ok yeah cool thanks but who's this week's biggest loser? my money's on murr