*Predicting S22 Week 6 using Elo

*Predicting S22 Week 6 using Elo - Printable Version

+- International Simulation Football League (https://forums.sim-football.com)
+-- Forum: Community (https://forums.sim-football.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=5)
+--- Forum: Media (https://forums.sim-football.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=37)
+---- Forum: Graded Articles (https://forums.sim-football.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=38)
+---- Thread: *Predicting S22 Week 6 using Elo (/showthread.php?tid=21925)

*Predicting S22 Week 6 using Elo - IthicaHawk - 05-07-2020

For what this is based on, see my previous articles here:

For previous weeks see here:

Week 5 is now in the books and our Elo based predictions got all games except the suprising upset of the Second Line by Hahalua. This takes us to 23.5/30 (78.33%) on the season which is fairly reasonable all things considered.
Otters slight win over the Outlaws ensure they hold onto top spot again this week but with them only gaining 8.04 points for that W, Yeti are snapping at their heels now sitting just 7.67 points behind them. Even a win next week might not be enough to hold them off if Yeti are able to run up the score.
Meanwhile, for the seond week in a row, Second Line drops another position. They're now 2-3 on the season and siting in 4th place as the Wraiths climb up into the top three.

The battle of the Expansion Teams is back on, with their win over the Second Line, Hahalua climb up two spots meanwhile Sailfish slide back one despite their victory. Now only 34.76 points seperate them.

The weekly rankings are as follows:
1(=) OCO

1,649.30
2(=) COL

1,641.63
3(+1) YKW

1,593.29
4(-1) NOLA

1,550.75
5(+1) SJS

1,521.97
6(-1) SAR

1,516.47
7(2) HON

1,481.72
8(-1) BAL

1,474.15
9(-1) AUS

1,461.43
10(=) PHI

1,403.04
11(=) ARI

1,400.01
12(=) CHI

1,273.31

Week 6

OCO

Top ranked Otters are travelling to bottom of the table Butchers this week. Butchers are seeking their first win but chances are it won't be this week. That being said, Butchers do have Home Field Advantage so the odds aren't as low as they could be. They're still not great however as Otters have an 85.70% chance of winning.

COL

Undefeated Yeti are travelling to the Outlaws looking to continue chasing down the Otters #1 spot. Due to the differences in Elo ranking, Otters have to win by a more substantial margin than Yeti to hold onto that spot so Yeti have a good chance to take 1st this week. 73.43% chance Yeti go 5-0 but will it be enough?

HON

I had to check my maths when I saw this one, despite cirumstances being quite different for Wraiths than Yeti (home vs away, Elo rankings, difference etc), Wraiths have come out with the exact same win chance as Yeti at 73.43%. I'm not sure the odds of this but it seems quite unlikely. Hahalua had a strong underdog showing last week and a win here could see them slide infront of the Sailfish if they're lucky.

PHI

Both teams currently sitting quite far down the table makes this one likely to be a bit closer. Copperheads do have that important home field advantage however so we reckon they're 67.05% likely to take the W and get their second win of the season.

NOLA

Although Second Line have struggled so far this season, they've still done enough to cling to the top 4. They really need to arrest their descent soon though and it's getting tougher . This week they face the 3-2 Sailfish on the road which isn't ideal for Second Line. In fact, we predict Sailfish will take this one with a 54.41% certainty. Should be a close one.

SJS

SaberCats are on a hot streak, entering the season at #11 and climbing up to #5 in just 5 weeks. They have a reasonable chance this week of making it to 4th in the tables depending how they do here and how Second Line do. This one is almost too close to call but we're giving the edge to the Hawks with a 52.47% chance they are victorious.

Summary
OCO

85.70%

73.43%

73.43%

67.05%

54.41%

52.47%

And in an easy to copy predictions format

Code:
:otters: 

:yeti: 

:wraiths:

:copperheads: 

:sailfish: 

:hawks:

Disclaimer: I am no stats expert. There may be mistakes, errors, data entry or otherwise. These are the figures spat out by my sheet which has maintained a prediction accuracy of ~68% (rising to 80% in the playoffs). Take it all with a pinch of salt.