*Predicting S22 Week 8 using Elo

*Predicting S22 Week 8 using Elo - Printable Version

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*Predicting S22 Week 8 using Elo - IthicaHawk - 05-09-2020

For what this is based on, see my previous articles here:

For previous weeks see here:

The week 6/7 double header is has taken place and thrown up some of the most interesting matches of the season thus far. Week 6 saw zero movement in the tables for the top 7 teams, all managing to stay exactly where they were but some of the margins narrowed. Yeti, within reaching distance of #1 spot couldn't hold on and slipped back once again.
Copperheads had a bit of a rough time in week 6, dropping all the way to 11th place after losing -46.98 point in their defeat to Liberty. Meanwhile Outlaws gained 21.81 points despite a margin of victory of just 2 points, such was the gulf between them and the vanquished Yeti.

Week 7 saw Copperheads bounce back with a strong win over 6th ranked Sailfish netting them 49.83 points and moving them up to 7th place. Essentially putting them back on the same score they entered week 6 with. Yeti had another stumble and have now slipped from nipping at the heels of the Otters right back to a socially acceptible distance of 4th and over 100 Elo points off of first. Back-to-back wins see the Wraiths sneak on up into a comfortable second place.
Of course lets not forget the mighty Butchers who managed to pull off an exciting 9-5 upset over Hahalua despite just an 18.01% chance of doing so. This victory netted them 36.31 points and landed them just under 400 points behind Otters. It's all to play for.
The Battle of the Expansion Teams is back again as, somehow, Hahalua and Sailfish end up within 1 Elo point of each other again despite quite different paths to get here. At the moment, Hahalua have the edge but it is a slim one of just 0.63.

Prediction wise, it was a tough week too. We correctly estimated 2/6 and 3/6 games in weeks 6 and 7 respectively.

The weekly rankings after week 6:
1(=) OCO

1,659.68
2(=) COL

1,619.83
3(=) YKW

1,613.83
4(=) NOLA

1,593.17
5(=) SJS

1,557.44
6(=) SAR

1,474.06
7(=) HON

1,461.17
8(+2) PHI

1,450.03
9(-1) BAL

1,438.67
10(+1) ARI

1,421.82
11(-2) AUS

1,414.45
12(=) CHI

1,262.92

The weekly rankings after week 7:
1(=) OCO

1,693.21
2(+1) YKW

1,643.00
3(+1) NOLA

1,611.02
4(-2) COL

1,586.30
5(=) SJS

1,528.28
6(+2) PHI

1,487.73
7(+4) AUS

1,464.28
8(-1) HON

1,424.86
9(-3) SAR

1,424.23
10(-1) BAL

1,420.82
11(-1) ARI

1,384.12
12(=) CHI

1,299.24

Week 8

SAR

The Sailfish travel to #1 spot Otters this week hoping to put the 47-16 thumping by the Copperheads out of their minds. It's going to be a tough one for sure as, with home field advantage on their side, the Otters have an 87.24% chance of going 7-1 and further extending their lead in the tables.

HON

Yeti are coming off two back-to-back losses and sinking down from 2nd to 4th place in the tables. They'll be looking to turn this train around and get back on track chasing down the Otters and the #1 spot. Of course, they now have to go through both Second Line and Wraiths to get there. This week should be a good start for them with 78.64% chance to win.

NOLA

A very interesting matchup here between newly minted holders of position #2 and the current ultimus champions who would like to crawl back up the table. A win for Second Line here would give them the #2 spot meanwhile, should the Wraiths take the W they'd almost certainly be in reach of #1 the following week. Wraiths have the edge here so we give them a 63.60% chance of winning.

SJS

The battle for the mid-table is getting very tough to call. This week sees the ever surprising SaberCats travel to visit Liberty. SaberCats are the higher ranked team here but Liberty have that home field advantage on their side making this one especially tough. We give a slight edge to Liberty with a 53.51% chance to win.

AUS

Hawks have not been having the greatest of seasons so far and are 1-6 now, sitting 10th in the tables. They face the 2-4-1 Copperheads in another matchup almost too close to call. There's enough in it to give the Hawks a small boost over Copperheads with 53.10% chance they can find their second win of the season.

ARI

Meanwhile, at the bottom of the table, Butchers host Outlaws, both have something to prove here but the important number is 16. If the Butchers can win this match by 16 points or more, they will push the Outlaws below them in the tables and take the #11 spot. This game is our third 'too close to call' game this week with Outlaws being favoured by just 52.86%.

Summary

SAR

87.24%

78.64%

63.60%

53.51%

53.10%

52.86%

and in an easy to copy predictions format:

Code:
:otters:

:yeti:

:wraiths:

:liberty:

:hawks:

:outlaws:

Disclaimer: I am no stats expert. There may be mistakes, errors, data entry or otherwise. These are the figures spat out by my sheet which has maintained a prediction accuracy of ~68% (rising to 80% in the playoffs). Take it all with a pinch of salt.