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+---- Thread: *NSFL S22 - Offense and Defense Analysis (/showthread.php?tid=22695)
*NSFL S22 - Offense and Defense Analysis - gbfn - 06-04-2020
Last season i made an analysis where i compared the teams defensive stats of season 21 of the DSFL. My main aspect was the DVOA (Defense-adjusted Over Average) Now as the sesaon 23 has finished, I was going to do the same with the NSFL teams. But as I did my research I got a bit carried away and so I decided to do a bit more.
I took the Box Scores from every game of the regular season and made a list of every game with following entries.
- Team
- Opponent
- Number of passing plays
- Number of Rushing attempts
- Passing Yards
- Rushing Yards
Defense Rankings
![[Image: pusBGWX.png]](https://i.imgur.com/pusBGWX.png)
We can see that there is a huge gap between the best teams of the leage and those who have to put some draft capital and a bit of effort into defending the pass. Two teams were able to set themselves apart from the rest of the pack. The Colorado Yeti and the Orange County Otters set the bar for a dominating defense against the pass. The Yeti allowed 200 pasing yards less than the team on the third place - the expansion team from Sarasota. On the other side of the ranking there is also quite a gap. The Arizona Outlaws - I am sorry - but it is reality - had no clue who to stop the passing attack of their opponents. They allowed nearly 900 yards more than the Colorado Yeti and over 200 yards more than the team with the next worst record in total passing yards allowed. However, as it often make a difference as to what sort of offense they were up against we also have to look, at the Passing yards per play.
![[Image: DrgLM3V.png]](https://i.imgur.com/DrgLM3V.png)
As we can see, it really is essential not only to look at the totality of the numbers. In total numbers the Arizona Outlaws defense look poorly compared to the other defenses in the league. But looking at the stats per play the whole impression changes quite a bit. The Outlaws seem to have had a schedule against pass happy defenses, as they rank right around the middle of the league in passing yards per attempt. The new last place in this category is handed to the Honolulu Hahalua. They and the Baltimore Hawks were really struggling to defend the pass. The team with the best passing defense is a bit surprising to my eye at least. The sailfish were elite in this aspect - this performance in the first season in the NSFL is really impressive to me. That really helped the in getting to the playoffs. The Yeti have proved to not only be great in total numbers but really in a per play perspective also.
![[Image: GHaD0ft.png]](https://i.imgur.com/GHaD0ft.png)
The worst run stopper in the league in totality were the Chicago Butchers and the Arizona Outlaws only divided by 2 yards. Although the drop off from first place to last is not that big as it was in passing yards allowed. The first place and the last are separated by 245 yards. The team that was really catching my eye right of the bat was the Arizona Outlaws. They also were among the 2 worst teams in either passing or rushing defense. They really have to put it together. With that performances they will not be able to stop anybody in the forseeable future. The leaders in rushing defense were the Honolulu Hahalua, as dreadful as they delivered in defending against the pass as outstanding they are in stopping the run. Also right off the bat we can see that the Sailfish also had a great run stopping defense. They seem to really have invested in defense in their expansion draft.
![[Image: pxhhoTV.png]](https://i.imgur.com/pxhhoTV.png)
When looking from the view of run stopping performance per play it really gets clear that Sarasota was great at that also. They really had a top notch defense. The stuffed the opposing running backs and didn't let them go anywhere and stopped them after 3,9 yards on average. The second best run defense is 0.3 yards and belongs to the Outlaws. The rest of the league was pretty similar apart from the teams finishing last. There was quite a gap between the league and the Butchers and the Sabercats who just managed to stop a runner on a 4,8 and a 5 yard average. Ever RB had to smile playing against that defense.
First and foremost the San Jose Sabercats could really need help in stopping the run.
So thats about it for the passing and rushing game. But what about the defense in totality. Which teams could rely on their defense and which teams had to hope their offense would bail them out.
![[Image: UAy64Jp.png]](https://i.imgur.com/UAy64Jp.png)
There is the ranking of the yards allowed in total. As we see, there is a huge gap. The team with the strongest defense allowed a stunning 1170 yards less than the worst team. The Outlaws are a bit behind the rest of the league, they allowed 5223 yards combined on passing and rushing defense. This is almost 250 yards more than the team on the second to last place. The copperheads and the butchers also had nothing what you would put your stamp of approval on. Those allowed just under 5000 yards. The teams in the middle of the stats are fairly on the same level. However there were 2 teams that were able to separate from the rest at the top. The Colorado Yeti and the Orange County Otters performed outstanding and allowed around 250 yards less than the rest of the pack. As you would may think now, let's look at it per play.
![[Image: YheSg7d.png]](https://i.imgur.com/YheSg7d.png)
So, in my opinion this is the most important part of the analysis so far. Evaluating the defense at the hands of their performance on a per play basis over the course of a whole season was the most exact way to compare the teams in the NSFL.
I guess most people would believe that the team with the best overall defense would be the Sarasota Sailfish. To remind everybody: They had the best passing and the best rushing defense. They allowed the least yeards per attempt in both categories. However, as you can see, they are not even in the mix for the first place in the league. But how is that even remotely possible? Did i make mistakes? I was checking my stats and thinking about it. The answer to the question is in reality not that hard to answer.
Let's look at the top 3 teams of the chart. The Colorado Yeti, the Yellowknife Wraiths and the Sarasota Sailfish.
To be excactly, I was looking at the average number of yards the league allowed to the opposing team per rush and per pass. The league average lies at 6,64 yards against the pass and at 4,28 yards against the rush.
The teams that had to play the Yeti and the Otters passed the ball less than when playing against the Sailfish. Colorado's defense had to defend the pass 395 times, Yellowknife 418 times. Sarasotas secondary was challenged 454 times over the course of the season. Due to this difference the Yeti and the Wraiths managed to overtake Sarasota. Expecially the Colorado Yeti were treated really godly by this way of measuring their performance.
As a result nonetheless at a per play based ranking they Yeti had the best overall defense. Close behind them there are the Yellowknife Wraiths and the Sarasota Sailfish wo even managed to come in third. After the top three there is a bit of a gap to the next three teams, New Orleans Second Line with 5,3 yards per play, Orange County Otters with 5,34 and Philadelphia Liberty with 5,37 yards per play. The Austin Copperheads landed in the middle of the league at the seventh place. After them at number 8 comes in the Chicago Butchers and nearly tied after them the Baltimore Hawks and the San Jose Sabercats take place 9 and 10. The Arizona Outlaws had to feel blessed not to come in last place. This spot is reseved for the Honolulu Hahalua. This was a bit unfortunate, as they didn't fare that bad in the respective stats. But with allowing 7,5 yards per play against the pass, the best defense against the rush in total yards allowed could not help the fact, that they finish in last place.
Conclusion
So, after finishing my ranking of the best defense let's look at how this would co mpare to the standings of the coference after 13 games.
Out of the 6 best teams on my defensive ranking 5 teams made it to the play offs. But that just applies when we don't separate the league into two conferences. When when splitting the board up in the respective conferences the three best teams out of each the NSFC as wells as out of the ASFC made it to the playoffs.
It is only fitting that the best defense of the league really won the Ultimus which would fit true to the wording "Defense wins championships".
But enough of defense, let's take a look at the other side of the ball.
Offense Rankings
![[Image: zcZ3rPy.png]](https://i.imgur.com/zcZ3rPy.png)
The spread of the passing yards per team is really widespred in the last season. There were huge diffences in the yards the NSFL teams were able to accumulate.
The team with the most passing yards in the league were - quite unsurprisingly - the Arizona Outlaws. Their offense was flying, airing it out really well. They achieved 3429 yards over the course of the regular season. At second and third place both also with over 3200 yards the Austin Copperheads and the Yellowknife Wraiths also proved to be a viable threat in airing the ball out. After the top three teams the league was pretty much on a comparable level. The only team who was struggling heavily were the Baltimore Hawks. The had huge difficulties in producing passing yards and not even managed to get over 2000 yards. They really need to look at the reasons why they were that unproductive in passing the ball.
![[Image: zaqHeZf.png]](https://i.imgur.com/zaqHeZf.png)
We now know which team had the most yards in the passing game. But which team was the most efficient? As we can see despite throwing the ball all over the playing field and going heavy on throwing the ball the Austin Copperheads were able to keep efficient and produce with every throw really well. Despite that they didn't manage be the most efficient passing offense. That title goes to the San Jose Sabercats who managed to gain 7,39 yards per passing attempt. Right behind the top 2 teams the Orange County Otters and the Yellowknife Wraiths came short just a few yards per passing play landing at 7,29 and 7,22 yards per attempt. The rest of the teams all but 2 are in the area of 6 to 7 yards per attempt. They all were quite at the same level. Unfortunately, as in every ranking there are not just winners, there also are teams that have failed to live up to the standards. The Chicago Butchers and the Baltimore Hawks finished last in the passing efficiency race. With 5,44 yards per attempt and 5,33 they are a decent amount behind the rest. They sure have to look for solutions to give their passing attack a jump start.
![[Image: XFTLehd.png]](https://i.imgur.com/XFTLehd.png)
Looking at the rushing yards accumulated the first team that stands out to me are the Baltimore Hawks. As depressing as their air attack was, their ground game really made up for that. Not to that extent that it would negate a lacking passing attack, but they could redeem themself a bit on offense. The other 2 teams that had an impressive running game were the Yellowknife Wraiths who finished top of the league at 2328 yards and the Orange County Otters with 2188 yards. The fourth team who reached the 2000 yard mark were the New Orleans Second Line. The teams on my ranking on the places 5-9 all are comparable to each other. After that the teams were trailing a bit. Sarasota is about 150 yards behind the team ranking at the 8th place filled by the Austin Copperheads. But even if 1587 yards over 13 games may seem low, there are 2 teams who managed to just get to 1372 and 1341 yards on the season. The Arizona Outlaws and the Chicago Butchers could not keep up with the running game of the rest of the league. While we know, that the Outlaws really like to air the ball out and throw it all over the place and therefore their rushing game would considerably hurt under that circumstance I would like to think that the Butchers just couldn't establish a consistent running game. But to be sure I looked at the average yards per run.
![[Image: JUn0kZJ.png]](https://i.imgur.com/JUn0kZJ.png)
As we see, the feeling I had about the Chicago Butchers proved to be true. They are tied for the least efficient rushing game with the Sarasota Sailfish, both managed to get 3,8 yards per rush play. This performace just is not enough to be able to establish a profound running game and let's the defense focus on defending against the pass. The Outlaws and the Yeti recorded 4 yards per carry and the Liberty 4,1. At the top of the ranking the Orange County Otters managed to keep the other teams behind them by just 0,1 yard per carry. Place 2 to 5 are all close together.
As we also see, the Wraiths not only ran the ball very much but also were very consistent in doing that. The second thing that came to my mind was that the Austin Copperheads also showed that they can run the ball. But a reason to that could very well be that defenses around the league are selling out to keep their passing attack in check.
Overall the league is quite the same at ball carrying, only the Butchers and Sailfish had trouble in doing so. There is definitely room for improvement.
![[Image: eE1jq5V.png]](https://i.imgur.com/eE1jq5V.png)
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forgot to delete the description in the chart, uups!With a offensive performance like that, I don't see a very bright future ahead for them. I am really sorry, but there is just no other way how to put this. The teams on the my ranking on places 4 to 11 all are at 4800 to 4200 yards. The Hawks running game redeemed themselves quite a bit. The Ultimus Champion Colorado finished right around the middle in the league.
The teams with the most yards are the Yellowknife Wraiths. They went first in gaining yards and did it with a bang. With over 400 yards more than the Orange County Otters at second place they set the benchmark last sesaon.
![[Image: wjN2TRK.png]](https://i.imgur.com/wjN2TRK.png)
We already saw, the total amount of yards gained by the offenses of the NSFL teams. Lets take a look how many yards they achiever per play. That should put the whole picture in the right perspective as we can see here how big the gap between the teams really is taking all things into account.
The Austin Copperheads really went above and beyond this year posting over 6 yards per play. Even the Orange County Otters proved to be more efficient at moving down the field. The reason why both teams left the Wraiths behind them clearly is, that they are more focused on throwing the ball. When looking at the chart at a whole we recognize that there is no team really neither running away nore trailing the league at a big amount. Sure, the comparison of first to last is considerably high, but the curve is really linear degrading. The Butchers even managed to close the gap to the team ahead quite a bit. But why are they trailing that much on total yards then? Well, one reason could be the third down efficiency.
I have not looked into the details of that stat, but i suspect, that this would be a main reason why the Butchers failed to keep up with the league in yardage.
Conclusion
As I already did on defense I will also mainly focus on the part with Yards per play on offense. It was clear, that the copperheads with their explosive offense would play a major role in gaining yardage. Of the teams that made it to the playoffs there are not as much teams at the top of the ranking. Out of the best 6 teams in the ranking 4 teams only managed to clinch a play off spot. If offense efficiency would correlate perfectly to the standings after the regular season, the Colorado Yeti, the Ultimus champion would not have made it even into the play offs. Also the New Orleans Second Line wouldn't have had a chance. Although when splitting the league into the conferences the play off picture would be mor accurate to the real one. There we would also have 5 out of the 6 teams who made it in the post season. Only New Orleans would have to watch the games at home.
Offense and Defense Comparison
To come to an end I thought about how i coudl compare match the offense and defense aspects of every team. To do so I didn't want to copare solely the total yardage allowed and yards gained and subtract the yards they have allowed. As we saw before that really is dependent on the respective philosophies of the teams. So i took the yards gained per play and subtracted the yards allowed per play. In doing so i hoped to really find out if that would match the outcome of the regular season. Also it would dampen the differences between the teams a bit. Please note that this is an attempt to provide something new for me and maybe you also. I just wanted to go a bit out of the box and tried to come up with something new, which i have not seen until now.
![[Image: IPgbtNV.png]](https://i.imgur.com/IPgbtNV.png)
12 - Chicago Butchers (1-12)
As you can see from the chart a first sight, the team with the worst yard per play differential are, as i already expected, the Chicago Butchers. But to my surprise it was a tough race between them and the Baltimore Hawks. Compared to the record they had after the regular season which they finished with 1-12 this aligns perfectly with my order.
11 - Baltimore Hawks (3-10)
The Hawks were really struggling this year. Their offense fell short of the epectations, however the defense was able to keep them alive in close games. But to really be in the conversation for a title the next seasons they have to fix both, their offense and their defense problems. But what do I know, maybe I am just overreacting.
10 - Honolulu Hahalua (4-9)
With a bit of a gap the first expansion team is right in front of them. In the offense to defense comparison they clearly finished negative, but nevertheless they showed a decent performance this season. Honolulu had a good year on offense. They were not outstanding in any way, but they showed a decent effort. But the offense can be as good as they want. I you don't have a defense. If they can make the right adjustments in that area, their chances at getting to the post season definitely are alive.
9 - Philadelphia Liberty (6-7)
The Philadelphia Liberty came in at place 9. They were not shining this year. They were both at offense and defense ranked in the lower half of the league. They have to make improvements at critical spots on their roster. This is the first time that my ranking does not mirror the realitity after 13 games played. The Liberty were overtaken by the...
8 - Arizona Outlaws (4-8-1)
The Arizona Outlaws came in at 8th. They would have been able to finish the season better, than that if they would have had a leage average defense. On offense they certainly held up to their end of the bargain coming out in the upper half of all teas, but the defense could not meet the requirements to post a successful season. Their seeding in this ranking is about right, I missed by just 1 spot.
7 - New Orleans Second Line (8-5)
At the last place of the lower half of the table comes the first surprise. New Orleans just didn't manage to come out positive in the comparison. It was a tough battle between them and the San Jose Sabercats, as it also was in the last season. New Orleans just made it past the Sabercats. What is a bit unusual as well is that it looks as if New Orleans was a bit lucky that season. Because looking at their offense and defense comparison they should not have had as successful a season as they had. Maybe they got a bit lucky with the sim. No matter what it was, in the end the points decide games, not the yards.
6 - San Jose Sabercats (8-5)
The Sabercats had a good season both on offense and defense. They finished fourth on offense and third on defense. All in all a good and solid performance. I have to state though that in the middle of the standings of the table my ranking just does not translate to the reality very much. But that had to be expected, as the outcome was very close.
The San Jose Sabercats have all they need to be competing for a playoff spot, with the right additions here and there they could become a real contender.
5 - Sarasota Sailfish (6-7)
The second expansion team had a really impressive season. The only remark I have, is that they clinched a play off spot despite having a losing record. The reason for the success of the Sailfish clearly was their defense. They finished third in yards allowed per play. Their offense ranked right in the middle. If they can maintain their level of play at defense and improve their offensive weapons I don't see any reason why they would not be in the play offs in the next season.
4 - Colorado Yeti (8-5)
In the comparison the performance of the Yeti was pretty good approximated by my method. While they were not outstanding in gaining yards and going down the field the defense really made up for it. With the best defense in the league they were a real force terrifying their opponents on offense. The defense also was the main factor in the post season, and the offense did enough to overcome their opponents.
It is vital for them to keep defending like that for the next years. In doing so they can afford to have a game here and there were the offense stays at bit pale.
3 - Orange County Otters (10-3)
The Otters are in the mix for title contention every year. So it is no surprise that they are in the top three teams on this list. There was a real jump as the remaining three teams, the otters among them could separate themselves from the rest clearly. With a decent defensive performance and going second on offense they showed again why they had been so successful in recent years. They don't need much to improve but their if their defense could make another step next year Orange County will again be among the favourites for a title.
2 - Austin Copperheads (8-4-1)
This is quite a suprise as the Copperheads come at second place on my list. But looking at the stats they were able to post this season this leaves no room for further speculations. Their impressive offense, who were scoring the second most points was their life insurance. Their defense was right around the middle of the league and cost them a few games over the course of the season. If they can fill their needs at the right defensive spots they can pose a threat to any team of the league.
1 - Yellowknife Wraiths (11-2)
The Wraiths were clearly the most complete team in the league. They showed no real weaknesses neither on offense nore on the other side of the ball. Finishing at the thirds spot on offense, not far behind the Otters and the Copperheads and battling for the first spot on defense with the Colorado Yeti there are no questions at what this team is capable of achieving. In the last years they have been pretty unlucky in their play off games, but if they keep up their level on both sides of the ball they will son be celebrating a long awaited title.
To sum up, while doing my research an analysis I felt that this method shows the strengths as well as the weaknesses of every team very good. It was real fun writing that article and analysing the performances of the NSFL teams and i definitely will try to do this kind of analysis every year.
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4293 words*NSFL S22 - Offense and Defense Analysis - Frostbite - 06-04-2020
very stronk. Sad to see that I was what held us back tho lol
*NSFL S22 - Offense and Defense Analysis - sakrosankt - 06-05-2020
Great article, very interesting read!
Didn't think we'd rank that good. Cool analysis!
Frost, stop holding us back!
Let's start the Banks era