International Simulation Football League
*The Sim Hates Me - Printable Version

+- International Simulation Football League (https://forums.sim-football.com)
+-- Forum: Community (https://forums.sim-football.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=5)
+--- Forum: Media (https://forums.sim-football.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=37)
+---- Forum: Graded Articles (https://forums.sim-football.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=38)
+---- Thread: *The Sim Hates Me (/showthread.php?tid=22890)

*The Sim Hates Me - TropicaliaCC - 06-09-2020

*Graders please consider that the data and graphs took a lot longer than the write-up*

Raise your hand if you have ever seen something like this in your team’s locker room after a stream: “Why does the sim hate me :sadpepe:” Well, I have decided to start a media series to explore who actually has the right to bitch and moan about under-performing in the sim. I decided to start with Wide Receivers but plan on diving into several other position groups over the coming weeks. If you have any special requests for certain seasons and certain players feel free to DM me, and I can give you a feature in one of my articles.

The group of players that were chosen to analyze played the prior 3 seasons in the NSFL and were all true Wide Receivers. I did not want to include Tight Ends because we all know that position is broken. Without further ado, here are our subjects:
Randy Vuxta (@roastfuego) – Jah Bur’Berry (@soryantyler) – Asher Quinn (@Dewalt27) – Jed Podolak (@KC15) – Deondre Thomas-Fox (@`AndrewWarren13`) - Rayne Gordon (@RainDelay) – Sean O’Leary (@Blueline) – Action Jackson (@KillaScrilla) – Net Gaines (@UpperNet) -Bender B. Rodriguez (@pazuzu) - Dexter Banks II (yours truly) – Saba Donut (@SabaDonutMan) – Rod Tidwell (@SDCore) - Hugh Mongo (@speculadora) – James Bishop (@Bwestfield) – Errol Maddox (@PigSnout) – Nacho Varga (@Fordhammer) – Nate Swift (@Bigred1580)

The best way of determining if a specific player is under-performing would be based on comparing their production to their TPE, so the first thing I had to do, after assembling all of the data, was determine how to measure a Wide Receiver’s production. Due to the nature of the indices, I was limited to three direct statistics: Receptions, Receiving Yards, and Receiving Touchdowns. I really could have stepped up my measurement if I had access to information such as: Drops, Targets, and Yards after Catch, but I digress. Through the power of mathematical formulas, I tried to come up with what I thought was the best measure of production. The first rendition was essentially the formula for fantasy points in our league plus half a point per reception. This gave me a good starting point, but I wanted to reward players for being above average somehow and wanted to reduce the coefficient for Touchdowns by a hair due to their volatile nature. After adding in a multiplier for above average yards per catch and reducing Touchdowns coefficient from 6 to 5 I had my finalized formula for “Production Points”:
(# of Receptions*.5)+(Receiving Yards*.1)+(Receiving Touchdowns*5)+(amount of yards per catch above avg for the data*10)
For example take Errol Maddox’s stat line from S20:
(59*.5)+(1138*.1)+(9*5)+((19.29-15.46)*10) = 227
The problem with comparing all of these results was the issue of comparing players in an Air Raid system to players in a Ground and Pound. The solution was to adjust Production Points based on a team’s total pass attempts for the season in order to make more comparable.
For example: Rod Tidwell’s 252 Production Points were adjusted to 217 because Austin threw the ball 9.95% more than the average team.
Finally, you take the Adjusted Production Points and divide it by the amount of TPE the player had at the midpoint of the season, but it yielded one more issue: a predictable decline in Points per TPE for the highest TPE earners. The reasonable explanation being that after maxing speed, hands, strength, and endurance (at approximately 950 total TPE) there should not be an increase in production directly associated with more TPE. Therefore, for any players above 950 TPE I divided their Adjusted Production Points by 950 in order to correct the skew in data.

Now we can use our findings to determine who the sim loves and hates. Starting with Season 20:

[Image: bTDJYG2.png]

First impression is that even with our adjustments for the top TPE players, it is still tougher for them to meet expectations. I buy into the theory that this would be normalized a little more if I had more data to judge production, ie Drops, Targets, YAC. Also, how the hell did DTF outperform expectations by 126%? Well, at a measly 420 TPE he had the highest Yards per Reception in the league that year and was also apart of the offense that threw the ball the least that year, so after his stats go through an adjustment to normalize volume to the rest of the league his statline looks like this: 46 Receptions, 953 Yards, and 6 Touchdowns. Yes, his insane rookie campaign would’ve been even crazier in a higher volume passing attack. Poor spec, as you will see, Hugh Mongo appears to be one of the sim’s least favorite receiver in recent memory.

[Image: WhG1GzN.png]

There were not any outlandish out-performances in Season 22, but it was an excellent season for the young rising stars at Receiver. I found it notable that Nate Swift and Rod Tidwell’s season’s were considered underachieving even though they seem quite appropriate for their respective TPE levels. For that reasoning, I calculated the standard error of 4.7% for Season 21 and felt more comfortable with the findings.

[Image: Cz3qzil.png]

Season 22 gave us familiar faces that outperformed expectations, and they both played for SJS. Action Jackson and DTF tore it up in Season 22 by outperforming expectations by 28.7% and 54.8% respectively. Age and a rookie quarterback finally caught up to Errol Maddox as his production really fell off. It was more of the same underachievement for players like Nacho Varga and Bender B. Rodriguez.

While my model is not perfect due to a lack of data, I think you can use a reasonable eye test to determine how the sim feels about certain players. I also want to acknowledge that a lot of production has to do with DC and Strats, but A) I do not have access to that information and B) Don't care to dig through it for hours to extract everything I would need to make this more complicated. Alas, here’s my take:

Loves:
• Action Jackson
• Deondre Thomas-Fox
• Randy Vuxta
Likes:
• Errol Maddox
• Jed Podolak
• Rod Tidwell
• Jah Bur’Berry
• Saba Donut
More or less doesn’t care about:
• Nate Swift
• Sean O’Leary
• Net Gaines
• James Bishop
• Rayne Gordon
Dislikes:
• Dexter Banks II
• Asher Quinn
Hates:
• Hugh Mongo
• Bender B. Rodriguez
• Nacho Varga

*The Sim Hates Me - Bigred1580 - 06-09-2020

@Fordhammer what did you do to the sim to make it hate you so...


*The Sim Hates Me - IsaStarcrossed - 06-09-2020

(06-09-2020, 10:07 AM)Bigred1580 Wrote:@Fordhammer what did you do to the sim to make it hate you so...

Better question is what did you do to earn indifference?

*The Sim Hates Me - J0EB - 06-09-2020

This was an awesome article! You did a really good job explaining your formula for Production Points too

*The Sim Hates Me - roastfuego - 06-09-2020

Sim loves me. It is my time to shine!

*The Sim Hates Me - Fordhammer - 06-09-2020

This article confirmed my worst fears.

*The Sim Hates Me - Fordhammer - 06-09-2020

(06-09-2020, 12:07 PM)Bigred1580 Wrote:@Fordhammer what did you do to the sim to make it hate you so...

Took the sim's mom out, but didn't call her back.


*The Sim Hates Me - pazuzu - 06-09-2020

[Image: tenor.gif]