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*Playoff Scenarios for all 12 ISFL Teams - Printable Version

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*Playoff Scenarios for all 12 ISFL Teams - howsour - 07-17-2020

There are only a couple hours left until the final games of Season 23 kick off. I thought I’d take a minute to analyze what impact the Week 16 games will have on the potential play off field. To familiarize those who do not know, the playoffs are comprised of the Top 3 teams from each conference, with the team with the best record getting the highest seeding and therefore receiving the coveted home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. If two teams end the season with the same record, the tie-breaker goes to the team with the better conference record and then by head to head match-up results. The rules do not specify, but I would imagine if it is still tied after this, then the tiebreaker would be the team with the better point differential.

First, let’s take a look at the current standings prior to the Week 16 slate of games:

[Image: q7JYhy8.png]

Chicago Butchers CHI @ COL Colorado Yeti

Chicago Butchers CHI

This will certainly be a difficult game for the Butchers as they will try to play spoiler to a good Colorado squad. However, Chicago will be lacking in motivation as this game is essentially meaningless to them. They already have the #1 overall draft pick locked up despite the result. At this point, the Butchers can only help shape the makeup of the playoffs.

Colorado Yeti COL

This is an easily winnable game for the Yeti, but will prove to be an important one. A win tonight would guarantee Colorado the #2 seed in the NSFC. It is technically possible that they could steal the #1 seed if they have a huge margin of victory and Yellowknife loses by a historic margin, but that is extraordinarily unlikely. Additionally, the Yeti do have the benefit of already locking up a playoff spot. A loss tonight could knock them down to the unenviable #3 seed, but that would require a Baltimore win and some very unlikely scores. Overall, I think it is safe to say that the Colorado Yeti have locked up the #2 seed in the NSFC despite tonight’s result.

Yellowknife Wraiths YKW @ PHI Philadelphia Liberty

Yellowknife Wraiths YKW

The Wraiths have had a phenomenal season and as discussed above with the Colorado Yeti, have for all intents and purposes locked up the #1 seed in the NSFC. This gives them both home field advantage and a first round bye, thoroughly increasing their Ultimus odds. This game in Philadelphia is certainly not going to be an easy one as the Liberty will be fighting hard for a win. A win for Yellowknife could potentially also mean home field advantage for the Ultimus Bowl depending on the result of the Otters at Second Line game which they will certainly be watching. Considering that the previous 14 of 17 Ultimus champions have been the home team, winning this game is extremely important.

Philadelphia Liberty PHI

The good news is that the Liberty are playing at home, the bad news is that they are facing off against the very tough Wraiths. The even more unfortunate news is that a playoff appearance is out of Philadelphia’s hands. They need a win, but all eyes will be on the Baltimore Hawks at Sarasota Sailfish game where they desperately need a Sailfish win. If the Baltimore Hawks win, then Philadelphia can kiss their playoff dreams goodbye.

Baltimore Hawks BAL @ SAR Sarasota Sailfish

Baltimore Hawks BAL

Baltimore’s game at Sarasota almost seems like a coin flip, but a win here is vital for Baltimore. It’s a win and you’re in game for the Hawks as a victory would secure their position in the playoffs due to conference record. A loss would mean the best case scenario is comparing head to head match-ups against the Liberty, where it is extremely unlikely that they would clinch that last spot.

Sarasota Sailfish SAR

The unfortunate news for Sarasota is that they are essentially mathematically eliminated from the playoffs due to their abysmal point differential. But, they can still play dream breaker or dream maker depending on the result of their game. Is they beat Baltimore, they could severely damage their chances of making the playoffs. And if you are not able to succeed, making others fail is a good consolation prize.

Honolulu Hahalua HON @ ARI Arizona Outlaws

Honolulu Hahalua HON

The Honolulu should be extremely happy with their season after league expectations were low, but they would be even more happy if they could sneak into the playoffs in just their 2nd year of existence. The Hahalua have a tough game at Arizona, but grinding out a win here could be just enough to get them into the playoffs with a loss by the Austin Copperheads. However, the Hahalua do not control their own destiny as a win by Austin would eliminate them from playoff contention.

Arizona Outlaw ARI

Arizona has the same stakes as Honolulu in this game. If Austin loses to San Jose, then the winner of this game would clinch the #3 spot in the ASFC. After two crazy and disappointing losses in a row, Arizona has seen their playoff dreams go up in smoke. Fortunately, they have one more shot in week 16.

Orange County Otters OCO @ NOLA New Orleans Second Line

Orange County Otters OCO

The Otters have had an amazing season and with their conference record, they have clinched the #1 seed in the ASFC playoffs along with home field advantage and a first round bye. Also mathematically, a win this week would gift the Otters the #1 overall seed in the playoffs due to head to head matchup results. This means that if they were to make it to the Ultimus Bowl, a win tonight would guarantee vital home field advantage a good shot at winning the Ultimus. If they were to lose, a Yellowknife win would cause them to lose this home field advantage.

New Orleans Second Line NOLA

The Second Line do not have much to play for this week as they have for all intents and purposes clinched the #2 seed in the ASFC. However, a win could potentially give them an the home field edge if results go their way and they meet the Yeti in the Ultimus.

San Jose SaberCats SJS @ Austin Copperheads AUS

San Jose SaberCats SJS

Unfortunately for San Jose, they are the only team in the ASFC that has been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. They are also locked in as the #2 overall pick in the upcoming draft, so realistically, this game does not have much tangible impact for them. However, I have heard rumblings on Twitter that playing spoiler for a bitter rival in the Austin Copperheads is a good consolation prize.

Austin Copperheads AUS

After finally recovering from a 4 game skid, the Copperheads have won the last 2 games and have put themselves in a great position to make the playoffs. It is simple; win at home against San Jose and you are the #3 seed in the ASFC, lose and the playoff spot will go to the winner of the Arizona and Honolulu game. Miraculous results have put Austin in this good position, but hopefully they do not squander this opportunity.

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