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+---- Thread: *Week 4 ISFL Power Rankings (/showthread.php?tid=25056)
*Week 4 ISFL Power Rankings - Crunk - 08-16-2020
So with a quarter of the season gone, I figured I'd try my hand at some kind of power rankings, but when the (irl) media do them they always seem a bit... you know... like listing the teams in order of their win/loss record, and deciding to shuffle a few teams about for controversy, then making some general statements to bulk them out.
Well, good news, I'll be keeping the general statements, but I came up with a way of ranking teams that doesn't use their win-loss record at all in the calculation - I call it Crunk's Random Unexplained Numerical Coefficient, or CRUNC for short. It's on a scale of 0 to 100. I won't explain it further, because graders don't seem to like paying out much for maths in media (jk graders, love you), and hey - isn't it much more fun to just get on with it and create a list for people to disagree with? Exactly, here goes:
1)
Colorado Yeti (3-1, 2-1 Home; CRUNC Rating 91.9)I have no doubt that this is the best team in the league. Loss against Sarasota? Pfft. The Yeti have the roster and the coaching to be considered the Ultimus favourite this year, in the eyes of the CRUNC system. Did you know that Colorado have the fewest tackles of any ISFL team? That's because they are generally on offense, scoring. They also have the second highest point differential of any team in the league. Neither of those stats have much bearing on my system, but they seemed like the sort of things you write in power rankings. I'll be picking them to win at home, and to win any road games against any teams outside the Top 4 for the foreseeable future. You should too.
2)
Orange County Otters (1-3, 0-1 Home; CRUNC Rating 81.4)I can see you there, scrolling to the bottom, typing "stopped reading at Orange County LMAO" and hitting Post Reply. Well, whatever, your loss. There's a saying - "Form is temporary, class is permanent" - and that pretty sums up my argument here. Sometimes a good team takes a bad beat, sometimes a very good team takes a few bad beats... and the latter is exactly what has happened in Orange County. The CRUNC system likes them, so I like them. Am I serious? Absolutely, I bought $10 million of Otters stock* as soon as my system threw out its first results. Am I insane? ...very possibly.
*Crunk and the CRUNC system do not in any way endorse either gambling or stock trading, do not offer or claim to offer ISFL stock tips, and hereby waive all liability for any incurred financial losses, personal injury or eczema.
3)
New Orleans Second Line (3-1, 2-0 Home; CRUNC Rating 64.3)A bit of a boring one to follow, but NOLA are definitely a contender. 16 tackles for loss and 14 sacks in 4 games is enough to give any tiny little dot quarterback happy feet, or happy whatever dots have instead of feet. With that kind of defense and seemingly impervious home form, it's not surprising that the CRUNC system likes these guys. Away form seems to be the issue - if the Second Line can get enough regular season away wins to secure home advantage, they will have a much easier path to the Ultimus.
4)
Sarasota Sailfish (4-0, 2-0 Home; CRUNC Rating 63.0)Look, if it's any consolation, the Sailfish are nearly third... OK? Maybe the CRUNC system is a bit down on them because it's not buying the Yeti win, maybe it's just inherently biased against fish (more on that later) - I guess you'd have to ask it, but that will be hard given that it's an Excel spreadsheet. Either way, Sarasota are a good team who I am projecting to be in the top two of the NSFC, and they are certainly in the conversation to win it all.
5)
Arizona Outlaws (2-2, 2-1 Home; CRUNC Rating 61.0)At 2-2, and with the worst point differential in the ASFC, the Outlaws probably weren't who you were expecting to see here. That's fair enough, but the CRUNC system would like to point out (I assume) that without Jay Cue somehow drawing the wrath of the Sim Gods in Week 1 and throwing 3 picks, this is a 3-1 team and you aren't laughing at me right now. The CRUNC system absolutely loves Arizona, and I can see why. Cue will have another great season, making Week 1 a distant memory. Count on it.
6)
Austin Copperheads (2-2, 1-1 Home; CRUNC Rating 59.1)Weird, weird similarities to Arizona. Austin probably shouldn't have been upset by San Jose in Week 1, but they evened their luck up a bit in Week 3 against Orange County when Franklin Armstrong inexplicably forgot how to pass in the fourth quarter. The Copperheads are a middle-of-the-pack team who are a few tweaks away from being a serious contender, though they are more than capable of upsetting teams in the playoffs. CRUNC likes them, so I'll say they will make the playoffs.
7)
Yellowknife Wraiths (2-2, 0-1 Home; CRUNC Rating 50.1)The Wraiths... seventh? The Yellowknife Wraiths that make the Ultimus every year, yeah? Look, I get it, but the CRUNC system only works on data from this season and I think even die-hard Wraiths fans would agree that this season hasn't gone quite the way they were expecting so far. Even factoring in 3 road games out of the first 4 (which CRUNC does), the Wraiths have made hard work of lesser teams and lost to good ones. For what it's worth, Yellowknife are the last team on this list I believe has any chance of winning the Ultimus, and one of the more capable ones when it comes to making the required adjustments to become a real contender. Of course, my algorithm doesn't know this.
8)
Philadelphia Liberty (0-4, 0-2 Home; CRUNC Rating 36.8)Yeah, a bit of a dropoff between 7 and 8. Also, that's not one long typo. The CRUNC system values processes and decision-making over outcomes, and Philly came in eighth. As much as I'm loathed to blame a team's record on bad luck and high variance situations, that's exactly what the system says I have to do with the Liberty. In my humble opinion, they have had the worst luck of any ISFL team, with only Orange County coming near to being close. With the lower end of the NSFC as it is and easier home games to come, they still have a shot at making the playoffs. I can't believe I just typed that.
9)
San Jose SaberCats (2-2, 1-1 Home; CRUNC Rating 34.0)What can I say? My system really doesn't like the SaberCats. I actually pay attention to this team because I have Jamar Lackson in fantasy, and he's great. Maybe the system thinks that Monty Jack's superb start to the season is unsustainable. I don't know. I have San Jose missing the playoffs though.
10)
Chicago Butchers (1-3, 1-1 Home; CRUNC Rating 32.3)It's going to be a long process to turn the Butchers around after many seasons of pain for the fans, but the CRUNC system shows signs of that happening. It will be considered a successful year for Chicago if they sneak into the playoffs, and thanks to the teams in the bottom end of the NSFC they have a good chance of doing that.
11)
Baltimore Hawks (2-2, 2-0 Home; CRUNC Rating 25.9)With some decent offensive weapons and a 2-2 record, I'm not entirely sure why the Hawks are this low, but my job here is to exalt the CRUNC system, not to question it. If I had to guess, I would say defensive frailties are stopping Baltimore from achieving a higher rating, but I really don't know. Even ranked 11, they have a chance of making the playoffs, though I would be very surprised if they upset any of the top 3 teams in the NSFC.
12)
Honolulu Hahalua (2-2, 0-2 Home; CRUNC Rating 0.2)Again, not a typo. Honolulu are the reason why I made the CRUNC system to one decimal place. According to CRUNC, the Hahalua are the worst team in the league over the last 4 games, and it's not close. Losing 2 at home and winning 2 on the road shows the kind of magical variance at play in Hawaii. Sitting second in the conference at 2-2, they really won't want to hear this, but I think 6 wins is a ceiling for this team, and one they will be lucky to hit. And to repeat myself, I am not a hater of fish. I mean, I stood on a small ray once at Daytona Beach when I was like 7 and wouldn't go in the sea for the rest of my time in Florida, but this honestly has nothing to do with that. My algorithm just really, really does not rate the Hahalua.
TAQ (Totally Anticipated Questions)
Are you trolling?
Nope, I actually made a system that doesn't use win/loss records, and I hope it has some predictive power, though we shall see. It will get better as the weeks go on.
You really bought that Otters stock based on... this?
CRUNC is the future.
You realise you're off our draft board now, right?
...sigh ...yes.
Where can I send my hate mail/death threats?
DM me. I've been playing League of Legends on the EUW server for about 6 years now, so it won't be anything I haven't already heard in like 8 languages already.
How do you get an Excel spreadsheet to hate fish so much?
Just stop it.
RE: Week 4 ISFL Power Rankings - Baron1898 - 08-16-2020
stopped reading at Orange County LMAO
but also like cmon, we aren’t THAT bad
RE: Week 4 ISFL Power Rankings - Mooty99 - 08-17-2020
"The Copperheads are a middle-of-the-pack team"
You seemed to have misspelt perennial title contender wrong?
RE: Week 4 ISFL Power Rankings - TomHanks - 08-17-2020
(08-17-2020, 02:32 AM)Mooty99 Wrote: "The Copperheads are a middle-of-the-pack team"
You seemed to have misspelt perennial title contender wrong?
no he was right the first time snek succ
RE: Week 4 ISFL Power Rankings - Crunk - 08-17-2020
(08-16-2020, 09:15 PM)Baron1898 Wrote: stopped reading at Orange County LMAO
but also like cmon, we aren’t THAT bad
I have to say, I was stunned by the rating that Honolulu got, but I trust it...
(08-17-2020, 02:32 AM)Mooty99 Wrote: "The Copperheads are a middle-of-the-pack team"
You seemed to have misspelt perennial title contender wrong?
It only takes this year's games into account, if that makes you feel better.
Also, for some reason Alan Curbishley on a sig made me laugh out loud, so I'll see if I can find a way to put that into my calculations.