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+---- Thread: *Midseason ISFL Power Rankings (/showthread.php?tid=25180)
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*Midseason ISFL Power Rankings - Crunk - 08-25-2020
It's the halfway point of the ISFL season, so time for me to publish my updated CRUNC ratings. After how the last ones were received (a mixture of silence and negativity that reminded me of my first guitar teacher) I'm super excited to bring the next edition to the ISFL community. The golden rule of Power Rankings is, of course, that you're not doing them right unless you are annoying someone. Hi, Honolulu.
Once again, an explanation: the CRUNC system takes absolutely zero notice of a team's wins and losses, instead relying on other predictive metrics to calculate a teams true ability. I don't explain my calculations because I don't have to.
It also happens to be how I make my weekly picks, and I've got 2 or more (rounded) TPE every week since Week 4, when I started the rating system. My system? Take the home team, unless the away team are 30 CRUNC ratings points better. So yes, a 1 TPE loss per game week is my gift to the ISFL community. You are welcome.
1)
Colorado Yeti (6-2, 4-1 Home; CRUNC Rating 97.0: Week 4 Ranking: 1st, Week 4 Rating: 91.9)I commented last time out that the Yeti were the best team in the league. Not exactly a hot take unless you're one of the sheeple that believe win percentages. Another loss, this time to Arizona, doesn't hurt them in my eyes. In fact, their CRUNC rating went up on the back of that game. In my season picks I took Colorado to be the regular season champions - not because I knew anything at that point, just because a lot of other people were - and I am so glad that I did.
2)
Orange County Otters (4-4, 2-1 Home; CRUNC Rating 74.7: Week 4 Ranking: 2nd, Week 4 Rating: 81.4)Now mired in the 4-4 deadlock that is the ASFC, Orange County have done a great job righting the ship after a poor first 4 weeks. Though their offense isn't quite clicking the way they would want it to, I have the Otters defense ranked a comfortable second in the ISFL. Their overall rating slipped a bit, but that's a quirk of my system that I affectionately call "The Yeti Effect".
I mentioned that I bought Otters stock on the back of the last rankings, and they're sitting at a healthy 9.6% profit so far. I plan to ride the Otters profit train until the closing weeks of the system. If you don't own Otters stock, immediately prior to week 10 looks a great time to buy.*
*Obligatory disclaimer: Crunk and the CRUNC system do not in any way endorse either gambling or stock trading, and the above stock tip is for entertainment purposes only. Crunk hereby waives all liability for any incurred financial losses, loss of appetite or spousal infidelity.
3)
Sarasota Sailfish (7-1, 3-1 Home; CRUNC Rating 68.8: Week 4 Ranking: 4th, Week 4 Rating: 63.0)The Sailfish are up a spot from last time, and I have to say I really like the way they approach the game. In Sarasota, the offense carries most of the load, scoring points at will and attempting to control possession in their favour when necessary. Despite allowing the fewest points in the ISFL, I see the Sailfish defensive unit as the thing stopping them challenging the Yeti for supremacy in my rankings. They have had quite a bit of good fortune, but good teams make their own luck. A few defensive additions and the NSFC will have two truly overpowered teams next season. As for this season, if they win the NSFC, the sky is the limit for the Sailfish.
4)
New Orleans Second Line (6-2, 3-1 Home; CRUNC Rating 62.0: Week 4 Ranking: 3rd, Week 4 Rating: 64.3)The lone team emerging from the ASFC pack, the Second Line are simply good on both sides of the ball. Neither unit cracks the Top 3 in the league by my respective metrics, but being Top 5 in both is enough for frequent success. NOLA are in prime position to secure home advantage for at least part of the playoffs, which would be massive. The next two games against Yellowknife and on the road to Colorado could be huge for their Ultimus chances.
5)
Yellowknife Wraiths (4-4, 2-2 Home; CRUNC Rating 61.2: Week 4 Ranking: 7th, Week 4 Rating: 50.1)The Wraiths have climbed up my ranking through a significant bump in their CRUNK rating. They have a mean defense and a decent offense, good enough to place them a solid third in the NSFC for me. Yellowknife are favourites against most and good enough to upset any others, but they will need to improve their position in the NSFC if they want to realistically expect playoff success.
6)
Austin Copperheads (4-4, 2-2 Home; CRUNC Rating 59.6: Week 4 Ranking: 6th, Week 4 Rating: 59.1)There isn't too much between Austin and Yellowknife, but they just played each other, and despite Austin winning, my system had the Wraiths as the better team in that game, but only just. They are comfortably the best offensive team in the ASFC by my metrics (and by points scored), but their defense doesn't compare favourably across the ISFL. This team is about offense, though, and if they can top the ASFC they will have a great chance in the playoffs.
7)
Arizona Outlaws (4-4, 4-1 Home; CRUNC Rating 44.0: Week 4 Ranking: 5th, Week 4 Rating: 61.0)The Outlaws have slipped down my rankings and their CRUNC rating has plummeted, but to be honest their schedule was pretty nasty. Playing the Otters, Yeti and Wraiths will do that to my ratings, though I doubt they impressed many by needing a late comeback to beat the winless Liberty in Week 7. I still like Arizona, ranking them 7th in offense and 6th in defense, and I'm still backing them to make the playoffs out of the tight ASFC race.
8)
Philadelphia Liberty (0-8, 0-4 Home; CRUNC Rating 32.8: Week 4 Ranking: 8th, Week 4 Rating: 36.8)In the parallel universe where football is played in 3D and I'm not actually paid $2M for writing this drivel, I own shirts with names such as Romo, Witten and Elliott on the back. As such, I detest everything that includes the word Philadelphia except for that one comedy show. With that said, even though it goes against every instinct I have, I really do feel bad for the Liberty this season. Sure, they aren't the team everyone picked to make the playoffs, but they are so much better than their record. Even expansion means they can't get the first overall pick as compensation. Season 24 has just been cursed for the Liberty so far. I am monitoring their stock price closely, with a view to investing in a couple of weeks.
9)
Baltimore Hawks (3-5, 3-1 Home; CRUNC Rating 32.6: Week 4 Ranking: 11th, Week 4 Rating: 25.9)There's pretty much nothing between the 8th and 11th teams in my ranking, and Baltimore have moved up a couple of spots. I commented last time that I didn't really know why they were ranked so low last time, but I'm pretty sure now it comes down to their defense, who I have ranked worst in the ISFL. Baltimore are probably heading for a top 8 pick in the ISFL draft, and I can thoroughly recommend looking at the London Royals if they're after high upside defensive difference makers.
10)
San Jose SaberCats (4-4, 1-2 Home; CRUNC Rating 32.2: Week 4 Ranking: 9th, Week 4 Rating: 35.0)The SaberCats haven't moved much in the rankings, and their record flatters them slightly but not hugely. San Jose's defense is ranked fourth in the league by my system, but their offense is second worst. That said, their offensive core is young and will no doubt be heavily protected through expansion. I expect the SaberCats to have a dynamic offense in a couple of seasons.
11)
Chicago Butchers (2-6, 2-2 Home; CRUNC Rating 30.9: Week 4 Ranking: 10th, Week 4 Rating: 32.3)Chicago could easily have 3 or 4 wins this season, and they probably should have. Their offense has the fewest points of any ISFL team, but the CRUNC system indicates that's probably down to bad luck, and their defense is the weaker unit. The playoff dream is fading a little, but it's not over, though I think they would probably do better taking a higher draft pick than making the postseason.
12)
Honolulu Hahalua (4-4, 0-2 Home; CRUNC Rating 4.4: Week 4 Ranking: 12th, Week 4 Rating: 0.2)First off, I'd like to say thanks to the Hahalua. When you're a rookie nobody who puts out obscure power rankings, your gut feeling is that nobody will read or care. Getting called out in the stream chat during Week 5 brought a sliver of joy to my cold, dead heart. Long may Honolulu ride a tsunami of luck large enough to destroy Oahu.
Honolulu have gone up in my ratings by a whole 4.2 points, from 0.2 to 4.4. So that's something. On the other hand, they're still the lowest ranked team by a margin, so much so that I went back through my system to verify that I put the numbers in right. I did. While I did so, I found that Honolulu's defense are seventh ranked in the ISFL by my system. Their offense really needs help though.
Still, whatever ritual sacrifices they may or may not be making to the sim gods seem to be working. Good luck to them.
TAQ (Totally Anticipated Questions)
Did you really use the word "sheeple"?
I am so sorry.
Was that a serious attempt to hawk yourself to Baltimore?
No, to any team, and not just me. I have some superb defensive rookie teammates.
"The Yeti Effect", seriously?
My power rankings simply don't account for strength of schedule. It normally evens out over 4 weeks. I might look into it for next season.
RE: Midseason ISFL Power Rankings - furiousPanda - 08-25-2020
Hmmmm.. something doesn't seem right
RE: Midseason ISFL Power Rankings - Baron1898 - 08-25-2020
Oh for goodness sake not again
RE: Midseason ISFL Power Rankings - ztarwarz - 08-25-2020
THE HAHALUA SHALL NEVER ESCAPE THE BOTTOM!
...no, seriously. How are they still at the bottom?
RE: Midseason ISFL Power Rankings - BigKicks - 08-25-2020
You really have the 0-8 team ranked 8 out of 12???
RE: Midseason ISFL Power Rankings - Crunk - 08-25-2020
(08-25-2020, 02:35 PM)BigKicks Wrote: You really have the 0-8 team ranked 8 out of 12???Yup. The Liberty have had literally 0 luck this year. They're better than their record.
RE: Midseason ISFL Power Rankings - JKortesi81 - 08-25-2020
(08-25-2020, 02:46 PM)Crunk Wrote:(08-25-2020, 02:35 PM)BigKicks Wrote: You really have the 0-8 team ranked 8 out of 12???Yup. The Liberty have had literally 0 luck this year. They're better than their record.
Stick to your guns. I like it.
RE: *Midseason ISFL Power Rankings - tMuse - 08-26-2020
SAR 1 or riot.
RE: *Midseason ISFL Power Rankings - Faded - 08-26-2020
why
RE: *Midseason ISFL Power Rankings - Crunk - 08-26-2020
(08-26-2020, 11:07 AM)Faded Wrote: why
I do the analysis anyway, and media pays money.
The hate is just a bonus.
Thanks for reading.