+- International Simulation Football League (https://forums.sim-football.com)
+-- Forum: Community (https://forums.sim-football.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=5)
+--- Forum: Media (https://forums.sim-football.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=37)
+---- Forum: Graded Articles (https://forums.sim-football.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=38)
+---- Thread: *Evaluating DSFL Player Development by Post-Draft TPE Gainz (/showthread.php?tid=25260)
*Evaluating DSFL Player Development by Post-Draft TPE Gainz - slate - 08-30-2020
While the immediate aftermath of drafts always generates lots of discussion about which team did the best, it's impossible to fully evaluate success on draft day. Draft success depends at least as much on the subsequent development of those players as it does on the events taking place during the draft itself. Now that we are a few weeks into the DSFL season, I thought it would be a good time to see the early returns on player development from each team, as measured by TPE earnings. Teams who perform well in this may be ones who could identify people who would stay active post-draft successfully, or they may be ones whose culture and leadership fostered more activity and helped facilitate people to learn how to better earn TPE.
Because I'm not aware of any source that lists the TPE earnings of players at the time of the draft, I compared the most recent draft class TPE from this weekend's update with the TPE they had gained by the time of their first update (August 8, the Saturday immediately following the draft). This may underestimate some players' post-draft earnings, since there were a few days between the draft and the first update, but it serves as a solid approximation. I also included only players through round 14, as no one drafted in round 15 or later has earned any TPE since the draft.
I scored teams on a variety of metrics:
1. Total TPE Earnings Since Draft - The sum total of all TPE gained by the entire draft class since the draft. This serves as a first pass with the most basic metric, but insights from this are limited because it is very dependent on the size of the draft class more than anything else.
2. Average Earn Per Player: This divides the total TPE earnings by the total number of players drafted. This corrects for the most obvious flaw in the first metric by standardizing for the size of each team's draft class.
3. Average Earn Per Active Player: Teams that selected more players who have gone inactive may do poorly in the previous metric because the earnings are spread across a larger number of players. This gives a sense of the extent to which a team has encouraged earnings in those players who have stuck around and continued to participate in the league. While this is an important metric to do well in, a team may suffer in this if it has encouraged a lot of people to stay active but maybe not to earn a ton, which may still be considered successful engagement.
4. % TPE Gain Since Draft: This gives the total TPE earnings since the draft as a percentage of the total TPE of all players at the time of the draft. Because this is standardized to correct for the amount of TPE across all players, this gives a good sense of how post-draft earnings compare to pre-draft earnings. Teams with high scores in this metric have encouraged players that had earned relatively little before draft time to continue earning, potentially even more than they had by the time they were drafted.
Below are each team's draft class breakdown, plus their performance and ranking in each of these four metrics and a little writeup for each. Players are listed using the format:
[Round Number].[Pick Number] [Player Name], [Player Position] ([TPE Earned by August 8], +[TPE Earned Since August 8])
Dallas Birddogs 1.06 Raylan Crowder, DE (164, +40)
2.06 Guy Fields, LB (144, +55)
3.01 Lionel Rumper, S (147, +40)
5.02 Sheed Thebaw, DT (119, +62)
5.06 Mark Callous, WR (155, +45)
6.06 Richard Leaking, LB (138, +53)
7.04 Milk Mann, S (102, +40)
7.06 Bob Roberts, S (127, +36)
12.06 Cmon Skiuuup, TE (120, +39)
14.06 Smitty McGhee, OL (73, +11)
Total TPE Earnings Since Draft: 421 (7th)
% Gain Since Draft: 32.7% (5th)
Avg Earn Per Player: 42.1 (2nd)
Avg Earn Per Active Player: 42.1 (6th)
Dallas is one of two classes to have every single draftee earn TPE post-draft (London is the other). However, because of the relatively few number of players taken and the lack of late-round draft picks, these earnings have been relatively modest compared to the rest of the league. Still, it is a major accomplishment to cultivate some degree of involvement from every single player taken in the draft, and with the exception of 14th round pick Smitty McGhee every other draft pick is still active as of this weekend's update. Overall a successful draft from Dallas that I think they should be happy with, but one that did not really demonstrate a great degree of ability to generate activity from players who weren't active pre-draft.
Kansas City Coyotes 1.07 Peter Patterson, CB (152, +47)
2.07 Felix Archstone, OL (152, +45)
3.07 Crozier McCoy, DE (57, +0)
4.07 Gary Goodman, LB (117, +78)
5.07 Tony Yeboah, S (110, +61)
7.07 Clay Stallworth, OL (126, +57)
8.07 Crayne Whebet, WR (105, +29)
9.07 Clay Clark, CB (81, +7)
10.07 Caleb Judge, LB (79, +21)
11.07 Connor Quigley, OL (59, +38)
12.07 King Tutankhamun, RB (75, +13)
13.07 Hank Antilles, OL (65, +0)
14.07 Jeff Haraldson, LB (50, +0)
Total TPE Earnings Since Draft: 396 (8th)
% Gain Since Draft: 32.2% (6th)
Avg Earn Per Player: 30.5 (7th)
Avg Earn Per Active Player: 39.6 (7th)
Sadly, as this is my team, Kansas City has an argument for the worst post-draft development of any team. The 3rd round pick of Crozier McCoy, who has left the league for personal reasons, means that in TPE terms a high value draft pick was whiffed on completely. A lot of their late round picks have had some degree of involvement, but it has been inconsistent and some of these picks are at risk of going inactive soon. However, there are definitely some standouts here - 4th round pick Gary Goodman is on max earning pace at this point, which is excellent value, and later round OL picks Stallworth and Quigley have been strong earners for their draft position. Kansas City's new GMs may face a tough challenge in re-engaging some of the players who were earning post-draft but have since gone inactive, but if they can do that there is still a very salvageable draft here.
London Royals 1.05 Albert Ruschmann, DE (152, +46)
2.05 Tayshawn Crunk, S (152, +49)
3.05 Marlon Alexander, OL (113, +38)
4.05 Swantavius Jones, CB (143, +48)
6.05 Jake Fencik, K/P (108, +77)
7.05 Joe Show, OL (95, +30)
9.05 Adam Spencer, WR (125, +46)
10.05 L'Gazzy Burfict, LB (122, +74)
11.05 Terry Yaki, RB (104, +38)
12.05 Gavin Leclerc, CB (74, +19)
13.05 Steven Wadham, S (85, +48)
Total TPE Earnings Since Draft: 513 (3rd)
% Gain Since Draft: 40.3% (2nd)
Avg Earn Per Player: 46.6 (1st)
Avg Earn Per Active Player: 46.6 (3rd)
We go from one of the worst teams to one of the best in London. Like Dallas, London has managed to have every single draft pick through round 14 stay active. Unlike Dallas, many of these draft picks were players who had limited activity pre-draft, and the TPE earnings across the board have been substantial since then. While other teams may have earned more TPE due to a greater number of picks or have more earnings per player who have stayed active, I think London has a ton to be proud of in terms of the depth and breadth of activity they have managed to cultivate from a large draft class.
Myrtle Beach Buccaneers 1.03 Goat Tank, DT (177, +59)
2.03 Jimmy Hoffman, CB (149, +47)
3.03 Hank Winchester, LB (165, +51)
4.03 Jackie Daytona, QB (123, +53)
5.03 Alex Reed, WR (154, +29)
6.03 Dexter Jackson, LB (89, +29)
7.03 Djibutee McJimmerson, TE (136, +62)
8.03 Jake Sackson, DE (97, +0)
9.03 Zach Crossley, WR (132, +48)
10.03 Medicinal Toblerone, OL (186, +36)
11.03 Troy Watson, DE (57, +0)
12.03 Leo Bloomfield, K/P (83, +34)
13.03 Teddy Utterstruzen, S (111, +38)
14.03 Brandon Kirwin, WR (50, +0)
Total TPE Earnings Since Draft: 486 (4th)
% Gain Since Draft: 28.4% (7th)
Avg Earn Per Player: 34.7 (5th)
Avg Earn Per Active Player: 44.2 (5th)
Myrtle Beach's statistics are hurt a little bit by a couple of players who have gone inactive and others who have earned but not on max pace, but I think this is a very solid draft. There are plenty of solid earners even in later rounds, and the high-round draft picks are earning as expected. I suspect that this is a class that could go either way - if the later picks stay active and keep earning, this could end up being a very solid foundation to build upon. Meanwhile, if a few players go inactive this could start to look pretty thin pretty quickly.
Minnesota Grey Ducks 1.02 James Gath, CB (153, +44)
2.02 Jameson Vermillion, RB (152, +46)
3.02 Killian Chambers, WR (152, +47)
4.02 Matt Peterson, QB (97, +25)
4.06 Mike Rotchburns, RB (175, +36)
5.05 Curtis Blackshear, CB (60, +17)
6.02 Brick Van Sanzo, DE (111, +46)
7.02 Cleg Manclaw, TE (94, +44)
8.02 Wasrabi Gleel, LB (136, +41)
8.05 Sterling Moss, OL (59, +0)
9.02 Noah Akerele, WR (131, +7)
10.02 Jeeeeroy Lenkins, CB (90, +69)
11.02 Bill Brasky, K/P (65, +0)
12.02 Lebby Newton, WR (89, +22)
13.02 Willy Weasel, WR (59, +30)
14.02 Lukas Hinsetzen, CB (50, +9)
14.05 Ledavious Davis, DT (50, +0)
Total TPE Earnings Since Draft: 483 (5th)
% Gain Since Draft: 28.0% (8th)
Avg Earn Per Player: 28.4 (8th)
Avg Earn Per Active Player: 34.5 (8th)
Along with Kansas City, Minnesota is in contention for one of the worse developing drafts in the league. While their total TPE earnings look solid, this is buoyed by their huge class of 17 picks. In every other metric that tries to adjust for this, they rank dead last. They've had a decent number of players go inactive since the draft, while others aren't earning at a rate comparable to other players taken near their draft slot. Still, like KCC, there are several bright spots to look forward to. Chief among them is 10th round CB Jeeeeroy Lenkins, who is one of the best earning CBs in the league since the draft and is quickly catching up to players taken 6+ rounds ahead of him. Additionally, they have a solid pair of late round WRs in Lebby Newton and Willy Weasel - late round value like that will help to improve the Grey Ducks' awful passing attack.
Norfolk Seawolves 1.08 Rusty Rucker, LB (153, +41)
2.08 Dukburg QuakStak, CB (175, +46)
3.08 Jimi DeSoto, LB (116, +75)
4.08 Ananda Adyan, OL (104, +62)
5.08 Xmus Flaxon Jaxon-Waxon, S (110, +71)
7.08 Sam Roes, DE (112, +66)
8.08 Harley Fank, WR (159, +48)
9.08 Flap N'Chick, TE (71, +0)
10.08 Corran West, CB (91, +2)
11.08 Henry Grant, DE (67, +0)
12.08 Alexander Johnson, WR (54, +31)
13.08 Chad Thunder, LB (50, +0)
14.08 Brian Nelson, S (50, +0)
Total TPE Earned Since Draft: 442 (6th)
% Gain Since Draft: 33.7% (3rd)
Avg Earn Per Player: 34.0 (6th)
Avg Earn Per Active Player: 49.1 (2nd)
Norfolk's post-draft development looks incredible as you read from top to bottom until the 8th round, after which point it drops off a cliff. They did an excellent job selecting and developing players in the early rounds who have been extremely solid earners, especially relative to the TPE that they came into the draft with. However, their ability to maintain activity in late round draft picks leaves something to be desired. Props to Alexander Johnson for sticking around unlike the rest of their later round picks.
Portland Pythons 1.01 Davriel Lavigne, S (175, +39)
2.01 Dan Foster, CB (153, +48)
3.06 Darren Pama, RB (150, +48)
4.01 Dave Batista, TE (174, +41)
5.01 Etrigan T. Slayer, DE (155, +22)
6.01 Chuck Roth, OL (152, +40)
6.07 Donald McBobby, LB (162, +58)
6.08 Angelo Cerilli, DT (79, +105)
7.01 Ben Anabender, CB (107, +75)
8.01 Honky-Tonk Haywood, DT (106, +74)
9.01 Marc Hamel, OL (84, +42)
9.06 Bobby Hoffman, DE (94, +0)
10.01 Buster Bawlls, RB (120, +45)
10.04 TJ Evans, WR (83, +2)
11.01 Elijah Torres, CB (57, +33)
12.01 Matty Martinsson, LB (88, +2)
13.01 Ninton Quelson, OL (57, +0)
14.01 Hugh McGree, OL (63, +0)
Total TPE Earned Since Draft: 674 (1st)
% Gain Since Draft: 32.7% (4th)
Avg Earn Per Player: 37.4 (4th)
Avg Earn Per Active Player: 44.9 (4th)
Like the Grey Ducks, the Pythons had a huge draft class with 18 picks through the first 14 rounds. While their per-player metrics aren't as good as some teams due to the inherent variance of taking that many players, they've done a great job of maintaining activity from a lot of the roster. Some of their mid round picks have been incredible value, with Angelo Cerilli having the most post-draft TPE earnings of any player in the league. While their draft drops off like Norfolk's, they've had a couple of solid earners in the back end of the draft, and their successful rounds lasted longer and had more players selected during them.
And for those of you who haven't yet learned about Portland's position switch scheme for their 2nd and 3rd round TEs, let this be your briefing on that. Please stop making PorTEland memes and joking about their terrible draft. Portland had a fantastic draft and should be a force to be reckoned with in coming DSFL seasons.
Tijuana Luchadores 1.04 NationalSimulation FootballLeague, S (137, +52)
2.04 Rich Triplet, CB (142, +59)
3.04 Bronko Mills, RB (97, +50)
4.04 Tex Wrecks, DE (173, +65)
5.04 Terry Tate, LB (113, +99)
6.04 Vance Slattery, DT (134, +57)
8.04 Owen Isaac, DE (83, +32)
8.06 Adam Mellott, OL (131, +63)
9.04 Jack Burton, K/P (62, +0)
10.06 Mark Walker, WR (98, +79)
*[11.04 Owen Holloway, QB (140, +46)]* - Special case, I didn't include Holloway's earn for any team since he was traded.
11.06 Duncan Donuts, OL (86, +0)
12.04 Mason Gillion, CB (79, +51)
13.04 Kentdavion Davis (50, +0)
13.06 Abdul-Jabbar Abid (57, +0)
14.04 Daniel Bateman, LB (57, +0)
Total TPE Earned Since Draft: 607 (2nd)
% Gain Since Draft: 40.5% (1st)
Avg Earn Per Player: 40.5 (3rd)
Avg Earn Per Active Player: 60.7 (1st)
Last but definitely not least, we have the Luchadores, who had an excellent draft. While they weren't able to hit on every single pick like London, their active players have stayed really active and continued to earn a ton of TPE - a whopping average of over 60 TPE per active player since the draft. I don't have a ton to say after making writeups for 7 other teams, but I think the development post-draft signals great things about Tijuana's management and they should have a really great core to build around from this draft.
Best Post-Draft Earners Per Round
As a fun sidenote from this project, I thought I'd also give people some bragging rights by identifying the best post-draft earner from each round of the draft:
1st: Goat Tank (+59)
2nd: Rich Triplet (+59)
3rd: Jimi DeSoto (+75)
4th: Gary Goodman (+78)
5th: Terry Tate (+99)
6th: Angelo Cerilli (+105)
7th: Ben Anabender (+75)
8th: Honky-Tonk Haywood (+74)
9th: Zach Crossley (+48)
10th: Mark Walker (+79)
11th: Owen Holloway (+46) / || Runners-Up Terry Yaki & Connor Quigley (+38)
/ || Runners-Up Terry Yaki & Connor Quigley (+38)12th: Mason Gillion (+51)
13th: Steven Wadham (+48)
14th: Smitty McGhee (+11)
Code:
2,586 wordsRE: Evaluating DSFL Player Development by Post-Draft TPE Gainz - deadlunatic - 08-30-2020
That's right, got the best post draft gain for 10th rounders!
RE: Evaluating DSFL Player Development by Post-Draft TPE Gainz - Memento Mori - 08-30-2020
The stats are very interesting and articles like this are always very helpful for mock drafters. Love it
RE: Evaluating DSFL Player Development by Post-Draft TPE Gainz - Cody - 08-30-2020
Wow Slate this is a great write up! I also don't mind the shout out
Go Yotes!
RE: Evaluating DSFL Player Development by Post-Draft TPE Gainz - Vainknight13 - 08-30-2020
I feel like some of this is misleading especially for people who got all the rookie things done pre-draft. For some people there just isn't as much to earn because they've already earned the majority that is available to them.
RE: Evaluating DSFL Player Development by Post-Draft TPE Gainz - Jimi64 - 08-30-2020
Great article! Love to see this kind of stuff
(08-30-2020, 03:27 PM)Vainknight13 Wrote: I feel like some of this is misleading especially for people who got all the rookie things done pre-draft. For some people there just isn't as much to earn because they've already earned the majority that is available to them.
In one sense that's true, but the post still shows TPE amounts at the time of being drafted. It still gives a sense of how well a team was able to draft players that stayed active/ they were able to keep active.
RE: Evaluating DSFL Player Development by Post-Draft TPE Gainz - slate - 08-30-2020
(08-30-2020, 03:27 PM)Vainknight13 Wrote: I feel like some of this is misleading especially for people who got all the rookie things done pre-draft. For some people there just isn't as much to earn because they've already earned the majority that is available to them.
My thinking is that a team shouldn't get that much credit for drafting someone who was max earning prior to the draft if that player continues to max earn. That's why they were a high draft pick. It doesn't make it a bad pick, you should obviously take max earners! But this analysis is trying to highlight those teams who can take someone who's only gotten 20 TPE pre-draft and "develop" them into max earners. (Obviously it's not always the team doing most of this "development" but I think it has some influence.)
I hope this isn't misleading because I'm not really trying to make any argument! Just thought of some metrics that give a cool way to look at what's been happening to DSFL draft classes since the draft. Then I wrote it up for $$$
RE: *Evaluating DSFL Player Development by Post-Draft TPE Gainz - KillaScrilla - 08-30-2020
Quick note, im at 118 not 89 lol
RE: *Evaluating DSFL Player Development by Post-Draft TPE Gainz - mithrandir - 08-31-2020