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+---- Thread: *Using player overalls to examine performance (/showthread.php?tid=25345)
*Using player overalls to examine performance - jzajenius36 - 09-03-2020
So just reading through all of the media posts it’s clear that people have dug pretty deep into earned player points, statistics, and all other types of analytics to come up with an original write up for that sweet salary credit. This makes things difficult for the new DSFL players that don’t know much history or perhaps some other metrics that can be used as discussion points. I tried to come up with some that entailed a little bit of legwork, and what I did was the following:
Determined the average grade for each team’s positions, excluding “D.Z” but including bots.
Determined the average overall grade for each team’s offense and defense, and then the overall grade.
Determined the average grade of each DSFL teams’ top three players by overall grade.
The goal here was not to get any definitive answers or take aways, but to simply see if there were any anomalies that stood out or some interesting correlations.
First, a brief look into each team, sorted by the team’s overall grade:
1) London Royals
Although all of the teams’ average grades ended up being very close, as in within 2 points from top to bottom, London separated itself from the pack in a couple of ways.
London does not wow at the quarterback, running back, or tight end positions, but makes up for mediocre overall scores there with the highest graded wide receiver and tied for first grade for offensive lineman. This is evidenced by London leading the league in receiving yards total, incuding Gunner Thorb, the league’s leading receiver. London’s offensive line has given its talented wide outs time to get open and helps it’s running game average the 4th highest yards per carry despite neither the quarterback or running back positional overalls being relatively average.
But the real reason this team is number one is its defense. If you thought the offensive lineman were big and nasty, London’s defensive chunkers are even scarier. London maintains clearly the best overall rated defensive end and linebacking groups, with its defensive tackles grading out at tied for first. Even the little guys are mean! Their corners grade out as the best in the league. It’s no wonder they lead the league in tacks, tackles for loss, and sacks. A truly intimidating group for opposing offenses.
Another solidifying factor that places this team as a true powerhouse on paper is that their 3 highest graded players are all an 80 overall. The only team in the league with 3 players over 80. Enough to earn them a tie for highest overall average for the teams 3 best players.
2) Dallas Birddogs
The Birddogs make their on-paper impact on the offensive end. This team sports some serious skill position players, with far and away the highest graded group of tight ends, along with a running back group and receiving core that are both second the second highest graded units. Their quarterback, Caliban, grades out with 3 other quarterbacks in a tie for second overall highest grade. Their 2 tight end sets have proven effective as both Tex Hex and C’mon Skiuuup are both within the top 20 in receptions and yards, the only team that boasts two tight ends with that claim.
The defense is much more pedestrian, as it averages out at the bottom of the league with four other teams. Despite this, Dallas does boast the second highest graded defensive end group and the tied-for-second best cornerback core. Dallas is one of only two defensive units in the league that can boast both a safety and a defensive touchdown this season.
Its top end talent is a factor on getting Dallas to the number two spot as Caliban, along with cornerback Blackwell and defensive end Rylan Crowder round out a formidable trio of talent.
3) Norfolk Seawolves
Without a doubt the Norfolk Seawolves bake their bread on offense. This team boasts the league’s highest rated quarterback and highest overall at the running back position. They also maintain the highest rated kicking game in the DSFL. They are one of two teams with 2 running backs in the top 8 of rushing yards and lead the league in completion percentage from their QB position. The strategy here is clear, but is your defense good enough to stop it? Death by one thousand cuts – short completions, chunks in the rushing game, and at worst they set up for a chip shot field goal as they lead the league in field goal attempts on the season.
While the defense is very mediocre in terms of average overall score, this team is very capable of contributing the big play on this side of the ball. Norfolk has forced the second most fumbles in the league and is the only defensive unit to have contributed two touchdowns on the season. They’re also one of only 3 teams to have a blocked kick on their resume.
While the league bunches up around #3 for average overall scores, another deciding factor for Norfolk at number three is their higher grade of top 3 players. Quarterback Ramza maintains a tied-for-first overall for the position at 82 and bumps them over Portland.
4) Portland Pythons
The Pythons took a different road to the top-half of the overall ratings list. Instead of having a clear advantage on one side of the ball, this team instead chooses the route of top-to-bottom consistency in grade. Portland rates the same on both offense and defense, just eking out a higher score over the next two teams. The offense is buoyed by solid quarterback, line, and tight end rankings, while receiver overall ranks last in the league.
The Pythons also have the lowest cornerback and tied for lowest defensive end overalls in the league. Again, the defensive overall grade is brought up thanks to the teams’ stellar safeties, ranking first in the league, and its defensive line. The line, while only rated at 67, is enough to give it the top spot in the DSFL.
I suppose ‘consistency’ isn’t the right word for this roster as the teams’ average overall does not tell the story of the jumps and dips between positional scores. Somehow this team continues to find success – mostly behind the sizzling hot Sam Howitzer. The Portland QB is setting the pace for quarterback rating this year largely on the back of an incredible 16:2 TD:INT ratio. The team has also benefitted from its special teams as both the punting and kicking games have proven to be the best in the league this far.
5) Kansas City Cyotes
While Kansas City is right up there with Portland, including a slightly better top-3 player average, it falls to fifth in ranking as a result of its defensive overall. While the offense is very well built, including an offensive line that ranks tied for first in the league, this team is one tight end away from being a force. The teams’ tight end is by far the lowest rated in the league. Nevertheless, the team has found success with its impressive passing attack and previously mentioned offensive line, which leads the league in pancakes. Kansas City leads the league with 26 combined receiving and rushing touchdowns, look out!
Defensively the Cyotes have a very strong secondary core. Their corners and safeties combine as a unit to be tied for first for team interceptions and have broken up the second most passes. The issues are closer to the line of scrimmage. Its defensive lineman are the lowest rated in the league, with the ends tied for last. The team is a respectable fourth in the league in tackles for loss, but last in team sacks, with only 11.
6) Tijuana Luchadores
The Luchadores grade out relatively low on the offensive side of the ball. The good news is that its offensive line does not fall into that category. It sports the 3rd highest overall average in the league. This line play has really paved the path for the rushing attack, which boasts a tied for league lead in yards per attempt and touchdowns. Line play can also be thanked for allowing Tijuana receivers to get downfield and maintain a tie for league lead in yard per reception.
Competative linebacking and safety overalls keep this team in the mix with several others as tied for second in defensive overall. They’ve shown consistency at all three levels of the defense, as the Luchadores are second in sacks, third in interceptions, and first in passes defensed. A whole unit that appears to be greater than the sum of its parts.
7) Minnesota Grey Ducks
There’s not a ton to say about Minnesota’s offensive groupings. They all rate towards below-average at best in most categories. Quarterback overall is right up there with most of the league, and that’s about it. And yet, an anomaly. Despite the talent of the quarterback position, the Ducks have struggled mightly when airing it out, and have had protection and general blocking issues along the way. But somehow the Ducks have been gangbusters when handing it off. Rookie Vermillion has been a beast, holding the league lead in longest run, 4th in rushing yards, and sporting an eye-popping 5.6 yards per attempt. Despite teams loading up in the box, the Ducks are tied for second in yards per rush and tied for first in rushing touchdowns.
Defensively, the entire unit is much closer to average, and the stats seem to tell the same story. While interceptions sit at a league low 4, other measurable are solid if not impressive, including 32 tackles for loss, second in the league.
Another interesting anecdote for Minnesota, they actually lead the league in highest overall average for three best players. This includes the highest rated defender in the DSFL, A.Ranger at 83 overall. This seems to tell a story of a disparity between top end talent and depth.
8) Myrtle Beach Buccaneers
Bringing up the caboose of this rating system is the Bucs. This is largely a result of its offense, as it has the lowest rated overall averages at the quarterback, running back, and offensive line units. And yet somehow we discover a similar case to the Grey Ducks, you just can’t stop these guys on the ground! The Bucs lead the DSFL in yards and average, despite less than stellar play from other groups. Rookie B. Mills has been a stud, leading the league in rushing yards at an absurd 5.7 yards per carry.
Again, similar to Minnesota, the defense has far fewer holes when talking each unit’s overall average. The group’s defensive front is in the top-half of the league in this respect, and it has yieled 22 sacks an impressive 9 forced fumbles, easily enough to lead the league. Combine that with 6 interceptions and its clear the Bucs are capable of creating timely turnovers.
Another factor holding this team towards the bottom of these rankings is the top-tier talent. It’s second and third highest overall players are lower than every other teams’ second and third highest overall players, respectively.
OUTLIERS
When looking at the actual standings there are a few things that pop right out when compared to this list. I’ll start with London and Dallas.
It’s hard to decide what’s crazier, London rating head and shoulders above everyone yet sitting at around 6th in the standings, or Dallas solidifying itself as second but sitting at dead last in the SFC South. One would think London would be primed tomake a run towards the top as they are only one game back, with the defense still doing work, holding teams to the fewest points against in the league. If the offense can get going, this team will still make it’s mark.
Meanwhile, Dallas’ super talented offensive group is sitting at second to last in points for, while the defense has given up the most points in the league. Clearly a bad recipe. This team needs to find a way into the opponents backfield, as 14 total tackles for a loss is not encouraging and far behind the league trend. With both sides of the ball failing to meet expectations and three games behind the SFC South leader, the Birddogs are in desperation mode.
On the other end of the pendulum sits the Tijauana Luchadores. Somehow this team just keeps winning. The best W/L in the league behind a league leading 212 points for. This team has bought into the running game and they are riding it as far as they can. Perhaps the Luchadores are in for a setback or two in the future, but they’ve positioned themselves well for a playoff run.
While I hesitate to draw too many conclusions, what stands out here are the two teams ranked 7th and 8th in the overall average grade are sitting at first and fifth in standings behind devastating running games and opportunistic defenses. They raise the question whether other teams should be taking notes of this trend or if this is a Cinderella ride with midnight on the horizon. We’ll all have to stay tuned to see if the shoe fits.
Data created/used for post
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Total words: 2,512 including data created and linked. 2,196 (write-up alone)
RE: Using player overalls to examine performance - ReverendOReily - 09-03-2020
Great write-up, outstanding player name. Keep up the good work Honky-Tonk <3
RE: Using player overalls to examine performance - Yeenoghu - 09-03-2020
I have to be honest. When I saw that you wrote this, I thought it was going to be a meme post about how your player was #1 because he owns the most overalls. Instead I found actual analysis--well done!
RE: Using player overalls to examine performance - jzajenius36 - 09-03-2020
(09-03-2020, 10:52 AM)Maglubiyet Wrote: I have to be honest. When I saw that you wrote this, I thought it was going to be a meme post about how your player was #1 because he owns the most overalls. Instead I found actual analysis--well done!
Wow I definitely missed a golden opportunity here.
Next article - grading Overalls by overall.
RE: Using player overalls to examine performance - Crunk - 09-04-2020
Nice job H-T, enjoyed that.
Llamas never forget.