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+---- Thread: *DSFL Prospects to Graduates Similarity (Part 4) (/showthread.php?tid=26341)
*DSFL Prospects to Graduates Similarity (Part 4) - Hordle - 09-30-2020
Intro: Thankfully the WR chaos is over. With a class of Six the TE should be a lot more manageable and easier to understand. We’re currently a little less than half way through this project and hopefully everyone’s been enjoying it so far. A quick shout out to the graders that have to go through this. Thanks guys.
![[Image: ULO2Uts.png]](https://i.imgur.com/ULO2Uts.png)
Tight Ends:
User: Count chocula
Color # in chart above: 0
Draft Year: S26
Position: Tight End
Name: Akil Ozymandias
S25 Match: Cleg Manclaw
Cosine Similarity: 0.865
Other notable matches: Joe Show (0.792), Cmon Skiuuup (0.722)
Distinguishing attributes: High STR, High SPD, High BLK
Why it works:
Hordle - So we have a Balanced TE in Akil vs a Blocking TE in Cleg. I can see why these two have matched up with similar speeds and strengths. Cleg currently has about 10 points over Akil in hands. But the players currently have very similar build paths. It’ll be interesting to see where these two players divide to fit more into their archetype later down the line.
Art - Hordle’s definitely pointed out the strengths and flaws of this match already, but essentially both have significantly better hands than the mean of their draft cohort. Both have positive normalized strength to the draft cohort, and some of the highest (or highest) normalized strength in their respective Tight End player cohorts. And they both have near mean speed relative to their draft class. I should point out that Akil does have a high normalized Pass Blocking compared to his draft class and other S26 Tight Ends - over a full standard deviation above the mean. So while he’s not a blocking archetype Tight End, he’s got some skills there. But, yeah it's not perfect and it's probably why the cosine is only 0.865.
Why it doesn’t:
Hordle - Cleg is a blocking TE. Which means his goal overall is going to be focused on blocking rather than catching. Not to say that he won’t catch some passes here and there. But with a player like Akil, you’re looking for both. And currently it looks like Akil is going more of a catching route than a blocking route. Of course that could all change. But I believe that currently that is the biggest thing that separates the two.
Art - It’s interesting that despite Cleg’s Blocking Tight End archetype, he has decent normalized hands to the rest of his Tight End cohort. But there’s a gap in nearly every ‘matching attribute’ we identified as key for this match. And each gap is nearly half a standard deviation. In strength, speed, and hands, there’s always a gap between Akil vs Cleg. In strength, Akil stands out more from his class. In speed, it's Akil again. And in hands, it's Cleg who stands out more. So it’s not perfect by any means, and that archetype difference is most likely the basis of that change.
What to watch for / build similarities:
Hordle - I have seen our friend Count Chocula around. He’s been active on a couple of discords and is earning TPE on the forums. Hopefully this is a continued trait throughout this article with the TE’s. Aside from the Akil is the type of player that I can see morphing into whatever the team that takes him needs. With his max of Run blocking only being slightly lower than that of a blocking TE. I personally believe that Akil will be a great mid round draft pick for anyone looking to add some blocking assistance to their running game while also having another option in the air. The most upsetting thing about this player is that he doesn’t understand that Cinnamon Toast Crunch is the superior cereal.
Art - Like Hordle mentioned, Count Chocula is an active guy who I’ve seen around, so I’m looking forward to seeing what he can do around the league and this season in the DSFL. And despite Hordle’s obvious bias to his cereal sponsor, I think he’s on track with what we can expect from Akil during the season. With already such a focus on strength and good hands for a base build, not to mention blocking, there’s so many different routes that Akil could develop. I’m hoping we see some slot schemes utilizing him to his advantage and early differentiating traits.
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User: pauadrian
Color # in chart above: 8
Draft Year: S26
Position: Tight End
Name: Tom Teboat
S25 Match: Cmon Skiuuup
Cosine Similarity: 0.837
Other notable matches: Cleg Manclaw (0.794), Joey Fish (0.702)
Distinguishing attributes: High SPD
Why it works:
Art - Our next TE is pauadrian’s Tom Teboat who’s been matched with AirCrou’s Cmon Skiuuup. And I double checked the u’s in Skiuuup. Skiuuup differentiated from his S25 peers with high strength, good speed and crazy high hands (nearly 2 standard deviations above the mean). Teboat, for his part, has decent strength (half a standard deviation above the mean) and decent hands (also half a standard deviation above mean). In our analysis, he stands out more from the other S26 prospects with the highest speed in the group. Skiuuup was no slouch there either, also around half a standard deviation above the mean. So, in other words and maths made simple, yeah I’d say this match works.
Hordle - Same archetype, I honestly love when they match up like this. I mean it makes sense for the archetypes to be selected when they’re the same. My first point with this will be their speed. Tom is at a very similar, if not exact, spot that Cmon was with their first update. Both rocked 72 speed out of the gate. Tom’s got decent hands and strength. So I can see these two ending up looking very similar come the end of their careers.
Why it doesn’t:
Art - Well based on renown, AirCrou is a veteran (man this S25 class seemed to have a lot of veterans) and pauadrian is relatively new - joining at the beginning of September. It hasn’t stopped them from posting lots and keeping up with TPE, after the next update they should have just over 100 TPE. They’ve also made a sig. So while pauadrian might not have AirCrou’s previous history in the league, they’re definitely active and a great prospect.
Hordle - Honestly this one works pretty well in my opinion. Tom’s working on getting better and Cmon’s just had more time. Tom will get there in no time.
What to watch for / build similarities:
Art - Tom Teboat currently leads S26 Tight End prospects in speed and I’m interested to see if they want to have speed as an attribute of focus. There’s a lot of interesting attributes for Tight Ends depending on how their offensive coordinator schemes them into the play. I’m going to be watching Teboat’s development and hoping to see some electricity on the field - they certainly have the base build to have a productive DSFL career, in my opinion.
Hordle - Tom is doing great in terms of speed. It’ll be interesting to see where he goes. But on top of stats the dude is active. We’re currently 2 for 2 in terms of active players with the TE group which is fantastic. He’s done a couple of media pieces, so he is earning money. It’ll be interesting to see if that turns up as the season goes on. He’s got a good base for stats and could go almost anywhere that a team might need.
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User: ckroyal92
Color # in chart above: 6
Draft Year: S26
Position: Tight End
Name: Jaja Ding Dong
S25 Match: Cleg Manclaw
Cosine Similarity: 0.918
Other notable matches: Flap N’Chick (0.876), Julian Joseph (0.876)
Distinguishing attributes:
Why it works:
Hordle - Another matchup with Cleg and another Balanced vs Blocking. These two have similar hands. Jaja is working on his strength and speed. But I believe that the majority of this comparison is one hands and two the Balanced vs Blocking match up like our friend Akil before. It’ll be interesting to see if this comparison continues to be made between the other balanced tes.
Art - Like Hordle mentioned we have another Cleg Manclaw match, who just seems to keep clawing comparisons in. This time it’s ckroyal92’s Jaja Ding Dong. The key to a Manclaw match seems to be high pass blocking, but not at the expense of hands or strength. That’s certainly the case here - Jaja has the best hands of the S26 Tight End cohort and a whole standard deviation greater than the mean in both pass and run blocking. So good hands, check, good pass blocking, check, good run blocking, check, good strength, check. We’ve got a match.
Why it doesn’t:
Hordle - Unlike Akil’s matchup though, Jaja is a little bit farther off from Cleg. He’s going the Jason Witten route of always catching the ball and falling down. Though having a reliable catcher for short to medium yard gains is never a bad thing. And I’m sure that Jaja will increase his other stats in time. Regardless I feel that this one is a bit more of a stretch then the Akil-Cleg matchup was.
Art - I’d actually argue that Jaja might be a better fit with Cleg Manclaw. Manclaw is known for powerful blocking, great hands, and good strength. While Akil is solid in all three of those categories, Jaja has better run blocking and hands from the initial build.
What to watch for / build similarities:
Hordle - Jaja’s a recreate. One that’s active and just won the whole thing with the Sabercats. He’s a gm that knows what he’s doing. And that alone will land him on a team. Jaja’s gonna turn out to be a great player. Signed sealed and delivered.
Art - Already with 134 TPE after this next update, it's clear that Jaja plans on challenging himself to be a max earner in the S26 class. And based on ckroyal’s history and established presence in the league, I’d wager he succeeds. This is a Tight End to watch for sure.
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User: MacDaddy
Color # in chart above: 1
Draft Year: S26
Position: Tight End
Name: Caven McRae
S25 Match: Jake Woodhead
Cosine Similarity: 0.840
Other notable matches: Flap N’Chick (0.820), Julian Joseph (0.814)
Distinguishing attributes: High INT, High HND
Why it works:
Art - Next we have user MacDaddy’s Tight End Caven McRae who’s a Vertical Threat Tight End - I believe the first vertical threat tight end we’ve seen so far. Caven’s been matched to Jake Woodhead, a possession tight end who specializes in nice hands, decent intelligence, some blocking and not the worst agility. Based off the original 50 TPE build, MacDaddy’s Caven McRae matches almost exclusively along the basis of intelligence - where he’s at least half a standard deviation greater than all his fellow tight end prospects. Geniuses attract geniuses I guess.
Hordle - Possession TE’s like Woodhead and Vertical TE’'s like McRae have one thing in common and that’s catch ability. Of course McRae’s looking to go for the high balls and end zone threats. While Woodhead is more likely to get five to ten yards down the field, pivot and catch the ball. Either way these two are as close as it’s going to get without another Vertical TE in the S25 class. Which maybe there was but I’m far too lazy to go look and the math picked these two for a reason.
Why it doesn’t:
Art - Woodhead hasn’t updated since August 8 and he has 57 TPE. For comparison sake, MacDaddy already has 96 TPE on his update page ready to be applied (speed, hands, and agility if you’re interested in what). MacDaddy’s also got a graphic posted. Woodhead never posted any graphics or media. MacDaddy is also a guy I’ve seen around the LRs and Rookie Discord, so he’s gonna be online and active. So yeah, based on potential, Caven McRae already leaps and bounds beyond ol’ Woodhead.
Hordle - Going off of the 50 TPE mark they match up. Maybe you could argue he’d be better with another one that has already been mentioned. But I feel the other archetypes are too different for the match up to work. They both wanna catch the ball just with different styles. It’s as close as we’re gonna get.
What to watch for / build similarities:
Art - Love that I sneaked a peak at McRae’s update page so I can get an idea of what MacDaddy is planning, but it looks like he’s hoping to have Caven McRae engaged in the passing game as a slot option for his quarterback. Speed is already up 28 TPE based on his last updates, so I’m excited to see the damage that McRae’s gonna do on the field this season.
Hordle - I’ve seen Mac. I’ve talked to Mac. He’s a chill dude, who’s got activity and willingness to succeed. As of writing this he’s got 69 speed (Nice) and 69 hands (Double nice) as well as 55 agility. The dudes gonna cut and run against LB’s all day.
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User: I’ll change this later
Color # in chart above: 7
Draft Year: S26
Position: Tight End
Name: Owmy Back
S25 Match: Colt Reinhorn
Cosine Similarity: 0.906
Other notable matches: Flap N’Chick (0.856), Dart Ragusa (0.851)
Distinguishing attributes: High RBLK
Why it works:
Art - Our last prospect Tight End is I’ll change this later’s Owmy Back, who’s matched to Emarko92’s Colt Reinhorn. Owmy Back’s another vertical threat tight end, matched to a balanced tight end with Colt Reinhorn. Despite being a vertical threat tight end, Owmy Back’s got the best run blocking in the entire class - an interesting 25 TPE applied on creation to run blocking. Now that would normally be enough to get a match to Cleg Manclaw or Joe Show, but unfortunately Back doesn’t have the strength relative to draft class compared to Manclow or Show. So he’s matched to Colt Reinhorn, who has decent blocking, but negative normalized
strength (under the mean).
Hordle - Huh, so I just said in the previous entry with McRae that I think a balanced and vertical might be too far from each other. But apparently I was wrong. This just goes to show that it’s more math and build. Anyway, like Art said I think these two matched because Back’s got near cap run blocking. Verts only get 55 max but he’s already on that 50 mark. It’s interesting to see what Back’s plans are in the future. Curious as why he went Vert instead of blocking or balanced if he wanted to get the block rate up. Either way I’m sure that’ll be unveiled later. Their hands are identical and so is their speed. So the match up makes sense in the long run.
Why it doesn’t:
Art - This isn’t I’ll change this later’s first run at the ISFL - he’s had a prior cornerback all the way through the DSFL and into the ISFL, although with an early retirement for personal reasons based on the retirement post. Ermarko92 hasn’t been around for awhile, not updated since early August - and Colt Reinhorn was his first create. So there’s a difference there, but it’s not a gulf of difference. I’m hopeful that this time I’ll change this later, is here for a long time and Owmy Back has a long career, shaking the match to Colt.
Hordle - Activity is obviously going to be a major factor. Colt hasn’t been active and I’ve seen Change This around. I’m honestly interested and confused about the choice of raising the blocking. But as an OL, I’m not going to complain about people wanting to get in on the action. Eventually we should see Back’s build change into a bit more traditional approach with Verts.
What to watch for / build similarities:
Art - I love a build unique out of the gate, which Owmy Back certainly has with an exorbitant amount of TPE applied to run blocking in the initial build for a vertical threat TE. I kinda like it. Unfortunately Owmy Back’s update page is well … thin. So while I’d love to focus on what the plans are for the player, I’m instead going to be watching for I’ll change this later to be active. Here’s hoping.
Hordle - I’ve seen Back around. The build is interesting and I’m curious as if he’d be willing to change to a blocking or balanced TE. I have seen I’ll Change this later on discord. So he’s not fully gone. The Activity and TPE gains could pick up and he could become a major threat down the line for LB’s everwhere.
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