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+---- Thread: *The Coin Flip League (through Week 6) (/showthread.php?tid=28222)
*The Coin Flip League (through Week 6) - Jimi64 - 12-11-2020
Ah, the sim, a cruel mistress. For countless hours users have tested and strategized in order to maximize performances and increase their win percentages. It is a noble but monotonous task. In the future sim testing may cease to exist or simply persist in a much more limited fashion due to the new edition of Draft Day Sports we’ll be using. However, I have an approach that renders sim testing, as well as any other advantages, obsolete: a simple coin toss. If you considered winning games before to simply be dumb luck, then wait till you see how Lady Fortuna would truly decide each matchup.
For transparency purposes, I will be using the 46th coin released in the America the Beautiful Quarters Program. Released in 2019, the quarter depicts a female worker in the Lowell Mills of Massachusetts. Its design lends itself to contain a similar weight distribution to that of the traditional American quarter. I will flip with a flick of medium power from the thumb of my right hand with the coin always starting with heads facing up. The coin will be caught and immediately (without looking) be flipped and placed on the back of my left hand. Heads will be considered a win for the home team, while tails constitutes a loss. Results that the coin has altered from reality will be marked with “(X).” Let the games begin.
Week 1
OCO at ARI – ARI (X)
SJS at HON – SJS
AUS at NOLA – NOLA
BER at NYS – NYS
SAR at COL – COL
BAL at CHI – BAL (X)
PHI at YKW – YKW
Accuracy this week: 5/7
The only discrepancies this week were Arizona taking care of business at home, which wouldn’t have been the biggest shock if it actually occurred. However, Baltimore pulling out an away win against Chicago would have been quite the upset in retrospect. While Baltimore have mightily struggled, Chicago has emerged as a strong team by this stage in the season. In this week the coin favored home teams at the same rate that the sim did.
Week 2
SJS at OCO -- OCO
ARI at NYS -- NYS
HON at AUS -- HON (X)
PHI at NOLA -- NOLA (X)
COL at CHI -- CHI
BER at SAR -- SAR
YKW at BAL -- YKW
Accuracy this week: 5/7; Accuracy through Week 2: 10/14 (71.4%)
The coin continues its same accuracy rate through Week 2. In addition, it once again favored home teams at the same rate as the sim. At this point you might be thinking “Hey wait a second, maybe this coin flip thing isn’t such a bad idea. We should really use this. It’ll be quicker than the sim anyway.” Easy on the trigger Annie Oakley, I have full faith in the chaos that will ensue. The altered realities in this week were Honolulu winning on the road at Austin, which would have definitely been an unexpected upset, and a win for New Orleans against the visiting Liberty, which would actually have been the expected result. With no other major happenings, let’s move on to the next week.
Week 3
OCO at HON – OCO
NOLA at ARI – NOLA
NYS at SJS – NYS (X)
YKW at AUS – AUS
BAL at COL – BAL (X)
SAR at PHI – SAR
CHI at BER – BER (X)
Accuracy this week: 4/7; Accuracy through Week 3: 14/21 (66.7%)
Perhaps not the chaos I was hoping for, but the alterations that did occur were major upsets that’ll have important consequences for the standings in the future. New York and Baltimore pulled out huge wins as underdogs against the two teams that fought in the Ultimus last season. Meanwhile, the other expansion team was able to defend their home turf as Berlin fought off Chicago. However, this last one isn’t the the most ridiculous flip of the script, as the Fire Salamanders only lost this one by a single point anyway. With New York, Berlin, and Baltimore being some of the worst teams in the sim so far this season, the pure luck of the coin has shown them some grace. In addition, the coin breaks its streak of following the sim’s home success rate this week.
Standings through Week 3
NSFC ASFC
Sarasota: 2-1 New Orleans: 3-0
Yellowknife: 2-1 New York: 3-0
Baltimore: 2-1 Orange County: 2-1
Colorado: 1-2 Austin: 1-2
Berlin: 1-2 Arizona: 1-2
Chicago: 1-2 San Jose: 1-2
Philadelphia: 0-3 Honolulu: 1-2
My poor Liberty have yet to find their name in the win column. Meanwhile NOLA and New York are the only teams to hang on with perfect records. We’ll see how long that can last. The defending Ultimus champs aren’t up to the hottest start. I’ve heard them called the luckiest team in the ISFL, so let’s see if that luck will show itself over the next few weeks.
Week 4
AUS at OCO – OCO
ARI at SJS – ARI
BAL at HON – BAL
NOLA at NYS – NOLA
COL at YKW – COL (X)
CHI at SAR – SAR
BER at PHI – PHI
Accuracy this week: 6/7; Accuracy through Week 4: 20/28 (71.4%)
I am personally surprised by how similar the coin’s results have been to the actual games. The only difference this week was Colorado winning on the road to Yellowknife, which is a believable scenario anyway. Up to this point we have not seen more than half the games be decided differently than how they actually occurred on any odd week. There is still a great amount of time for that occur, but so far the coin flip has not created the chaos I imagined. Philadelphia finally pulled out a win this week, thankfully. Meanwhile, the battle of the unbeaten teams has New Orleans fight off New York, leaving the Second Line to sit atop the league at 4-0.
Week 5
OCO at NOLA – OCO (X)
HON at ARI – ARI
CHI at SJS – SJS (X)
NYS at AUS – NYS (X)
PHI at COL – PHI (X)
SAR at BAL – BAL (X)
YKW at BER – YKW
Accuracy this week: 2/7; Accuracy through Week 5: 22/35 (62.9%)
Now this is what I’m talking about! Immediately after the coin’s most accurate week, the most chaotic week of all follows it. Only Arizona and Yellowknife’s wins survived this altered reality. Finally New Orleans falls in this round of games, removing the last unbeaten team from the list. Meanwhile, New York continues its winning ways, once again evening its record with New Orleans. This week of games alone decreased the coin’s accuracy by 10%. I would be interested to see if, by the end, that evens out to 50%.
Week 6
NYS at OCO – NYS
SAR at ARI – ARI (X)
SJS at AUS – AUS
HON at NOLA – HON (X)
COL at BER – COL (X)
YKW at CHI – YKW
BAL at PHI – BAL
Accuracy this week: 4/7; Accuracy through Week 6: 26/42 (61.9%)
In this series of events, that epic upset by Berlin over Colorado that was decided by just a single yard is reversed. Instead, the more likely outcome took place, and the Yeti took home the win, even though the 50% chance of the coin is likely much lower than what they tested at. That upset is replaced, however, by Honolulu upsetting New Orleans. With New York being the second recent expansion team to take home the win as well, they pull to the top of the standings. That being said, it was a week with medium chaos. Let’s pull up the standings again.
Standings through Week 6
NSFC ASFC
Baltimore: 5-1 New York: 5-1
Yellowknife: 4-2 Orange County: 4-2
Colorado: 3-3 New Orleans: 4-2
Sarasota: 3-3 Arizona: 4-2
Philadelphia: 2-4 San Jose: 2-4
Berlin: 1-5 Honolulu: 2-4
Chicago: 1-5 Austin: 2-4
Ties between records were decided based on head-to-head record, except for the exception of the bottom teams in the ASFC. We had an amusing circle of suck there, as Honolulu lost to San Jose, who lost to Austin, who lost to Honolulu. Therefore, unwilling to come up with a new criteria for the ranking, I listed them in reverse alphabetical order as a small measure of justice towards those disadvantaged by the unjust ordering of games on the stream. Baltimore snuck up to that first place spot in the NSFC. I was so distracted by the unbeaten streaks of New York and New Orleans that I missed out on their dominance. The ASFC seems to be fairing much better than its counterpart overall. It’s strange to see Arizona, a 4-2 team, at fourth place in their conference. So far, five teams have had their current records unchanged by the Coin Toss League: Colorado, Philadelphia, Berlin, Orange County, and San Jose. I’m eager to see what lies ahead, as there are a great many games left to flip for. See you for the next installment!
RE: The Coin Flip League (through Week 6) - Raven - 12-11-2020
I approve of this other reality
RE: The Coin Flip League (through Week 6) - Opera_Phantom - 12-11-2020
I'll take it