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+---- Thread: *Eph's Power Rankings: Volume 1 (/showthread.php?tid=28382)
*Eph's Power Rankings: Volume 1 - Ephenssta - 12-21-2020
I got bored during work from home this afternoon and decided to throw together a crude power ranking for the season. In the past, I have done something similar based on a formula for Pythagorean wins I ripped off Wikipedia or based on survey results from people who were generous enough to take some time to fill it out. This time, though, I wanted to incorporate a little more information and give my own formula a whirl. Because this is the first iteration, it’s pretty basic and produced some weird results. I’ll probably tweak it some in the future if this ends up being a recurring thing.
At this point, we are ten games into the regular season. Although the playoff picture is not set, some teams have established themselves as the frontrunners while others are struggling to keep themselves relevant before we move to the new sim and everything changes (hopefully for the better).There are still quite a few teams who are one win out of the playoff picture or, in the case of the NSFC, in a three-way tie for those precious tickets to the postseason.
The formula is designed to consider a team’s total record, point differential, and home and road records. You are penalized for home losses while also being rewarded for road wins. I tried to make the single most important attribute your win total so far on the season, but based on how things turned out I’m not entirely sure I succeeded. Still, I thought it was worth sharing. Without further ado: volume one of Eph’s Power Rankings.
I like starting from the bottom, so we will begin there. Honolulu scored an impressively abysmal -19.4 power. The Hahalua have only a single win and have given up more points than any other team in the league. This is probably the most predictable result of the whole thing. The Hahalua seem to be the sure choice for who will be picking 1st overall next season.
The unlucky 13th team is Berlin with a slightly less depressing -10.5. The Fire Salamanders are in a three-way tie for the worst record in the NSFC. They have allowed more points than any other team in the conference (although Philly is only 3 behind) and have one of the worst offenses. Although they’ve managed a pair of road wins, the home losses really dragged them down.
12th belongs to the Liberty with a nice -10 power. Their statline is incredibly similar to Berlin’s, so it should come as no surprise that the two posted incredibly similar results. Following the season they’ve had in which dirty laundry was aired via media regarding the GM turnover, it’s no surprise the team is struggling. That said, I’ve heard nothing but good things about the work the new duo is doing. The Liberty seem primed to have a draft slot in the top half for next season and will look to re-establish themselves.
11th is brought up by the third consecutive NSFC team. Baltimore comes out with a cool -8.9. While they are on even footing with Philly and Berlin in terms of their abysmal records, Baltimore has managed a smaller point differential, which seems just enough to elevate them over their fellow NSFC teams. Baltimore’s offense has managed to only put up 192 points so far this season, but their defense has been closer to the middle of the pack. Their defense may not win championships, but it does bring them up slightly in the power rankings, so that’s something.
For 10th place, we return to the ASFC and find the reigning champions. San Jose is the last team to post a negative score, falling in at -1.4. Following their recent Ultimus wins, the SaberCats have struggled to a 4-6 record this season. Their offense seems to be struggling to keep up and they’ve only managed a single win so far on the road. In a conference with Austin and Orange County both posting strong seasons, there’s just not much room for a struggling San Jose this season.
9th place belongs to New York. Their score of 4.2 is the first positive score and miles ahead of their NSFC expansion counterpart. The Silverbacks find themselves only one game behind NOLA for the final playoff spot in the ASFC. So far, they’ve been powered by a defense that has allowed the fewest points in the ASFC. But defense alone hasn’t been enough so far. The Silverback’s next two games, though, will be against struggling Honolulu and San Jose. There are some chances to maybe pick up a game or two there and make the rest of the season a little more interesting.
New Orleans finds themselves in 8th place, scoring a nice 10.3 in this week’s power rankings. They are the lowest ranking team that is currently sitting in a playoff spot, though they are only one game ahead of both New York and Arizona. NOLA can look forward to the fact that the remainder of their schedule features more home games than away. We all know that the sim heavily favors home teams and NOLA will be hoping to pull off enough wins to hang on to that playoff spot or even improve their chances, as they sit only one game behind the division leaders. The power rankings, though, seem to think they may not have what it takes to find their way into the post season.
The honor of being the first team in the top half and 7th place belongs to the Chicago Butchers with a score of 10.5. At 6-4, the Butchers are a part of a three-way tie for the second slot in the NSFC. Sarasota and Colorado make up the rest of the trio. Of those three teams, the Butchers sit right in the middle for both points scored and allowed. Their 3-3 road record is better than either of the others, but dropping a game at home and a relatively tight point differential leaves them at the bottom of the trio in the power rankings.
Sixth place belongs to another one of the teams in the previously mentioned trio: Sarasota. With a score of 10.7, the Sailfish find themselves just barely ahead of the butchers. The sailfish have scored the second most points in the NSFC and have a competitive defense. This combination has kept them at the front of the race for the 2-seed. Dropping a second home game is likely the single biggest factor holding them back in the power rankings.
Fifth place belongs to the Austin Copperheads with a score of 12.5. Th e Copperheads have benefitted from their 7 home games so far this season, of which only one has gone down as a loss. To reach the playoffs, the team will have to prove they can win on the road as well. Their defense certainly seems primed to do so, allowing only 227 points on the season. If they can continue their winning ways, they may be fortunate enough to enter the postseason with the coveted bye and punch a ticket to the conference championships.
Fourth place falls to the third team in that pesky NSFC tie: the Colorado Yeti. The Yeti scored a 12.7, mostly powered by their strong defense and perfect record at home. The team could be dominant if they could figure out how to string together some wins on the road. Still, the Yeti are on a 3 week winning streak and are looking to show that they can win even with a new quarterback at the helm. If the defense continues to dominate, they could find themselves in the playoffs again after their consecutive Ultimus losses.
The first team to find the podium are the Arizona Outlaws. This is one of the truly unexpected results and it’s really making me wonder whether something is wrong with my formula, since they managed to score a 12.9. But their offense has managed to put up 349 points, so perhaps they deserve some recognition. With a trio of home losses, though, I’m surprised to see them so high on the list. They find themselves one game out of third place in the ASFC and hope that putting up some big point totals will be sufficient to punch their ticket to the playoffs.
The silver medal belongs to Orange County with a score of 17.5. The Otters are looking to get back on top and have put up a strong season so far. Their 285 points scored is second only to Arizona and their defense has been an enormous asset. They are poised to fight for first in the division and have set their sights on another championship. The only problem is that so has Yellowknife.
The Wraiths blew everyone else out of the water, easily taking first place with an impressive 28.4 points. Their defense allows 14.7 points per game and the offense is the best in the NSFC. That massive point differential met a perfect home record and catapulted the Wraiths into the top seed. If they can continue at this rate, they’ll find themselves with home field advantage throughout the playoffs and look like the team to beat in the final game.
If you’ve made it this far, congrats! The TL;DR is below and broken down by divisional standings.
NSFC:
1. YKW | 28.4
2. COL | 12.7
3. SAR | 10.7
4. CHI | 10.5
5. BAL | -8.9
6. PHI | -10
7. BER | -10.5
ASFC:
1. OCO | 17.5
2. ARI | 12.9
3. AUS | 12.5
4. NOLA | 10.3
5. NYS | 4.2
6. SJS | -1.4
7. HON | -19.4