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+---- Thread: *Should We Expand (Hint: Yes) (/showthread.php?tid=29308)
*Should We Expand (Hint: Yes) - AdamS - 01-19-2021
Okay so this one’s gonna be a long one with a lot of data. I’m gonna throw numbers at ya and arguments and all sorts of good stuff. If you already absolutely loathe the idea of expansion unless 200+ people are beating down the door at any one time, nothing in this article will change your mind. You’ve likely already seen these numbers and justified why they don’t count anyway. For everyone else, I’m here to go over whether we should expand now, given our current state of the league and its players. Of course, I should add the really obvious caveat. I’m inclined to be in favor of expansion as someone who really wants an expansion team. So, feel free to assign however much salt you like, but know that I’m not going to put down an opinion that doesn’t have the backing.
I’m going to start with identifying the number of players in the league currently. This is always a slightly tricky scenario so here’s what I’ve done to try to make it as fair and useful as possible. I looked at the DSFL to see how many active players there are, and broke that down by season. You can see that below with the DSFL North on the left and the South on the right. In case you feel inclined to go look for yourself.
S27- 5/5/5/8 2/4/7/4 (40)
S26- 1/3/4/5 4/4/1/4 (26)
S25- 1/1/1/2 1/2/0/0 (8)
S24- 0/0/0/0 0/0/1/0 (1)
To ensure that I don’t get crossed up in S27 draftees, I counted them separately based on whether they were listed on the ISFL roster or DSFL roster as of when I collected this data. Given that it’s been several days since the draft, I’d say that the amount of players who move from one league to the other isn’t going to change that much. Even if they do, they’re only adding to the ISFL roster numbers, so it's not like it's a number that wouldn’t exist otherwise. As you can see, that is 75 players currently active in the DSFL. This being before the S28 class has their draft as well. That number of prospects was over 65 the last time I looked. And not as unbalanced as most media would have you believe, either. There were over 30 defensive prospects among this group. So we have the initial active 75 players and the incoming 65+ players on top of that. I’ll circle back around to this point later and address a particular position group among those 65+ players in the S28 class. So. That’s where we are in our pipeline. Time to move on to the big show. For the ISFL we’re gonna go team by team and show what they’ve got going on. First, though, I’ll give you a quick breakdown on what an average team’s full roster would look like.
Offense- 8
QB, RBx2/WRx2 or RB/WEx3, TE, OLx2
Defense- 11
DLx3/LBx4 or DLx4/LBx3, CBx2, Sx2
Special- 1
K/P
So that’s about 20 players per full team. You could say 21 and a random floating backup/situational player. That’s a very good number. So with that in mind let’s look at where each team is. S21 is the class that will hit regression at the end of the coming season, which is why the cutoff is there. Said players likely universally have at least a few seasons before they retire. The number in parenthesis is a count of how many IA players and players older than S21 each team has. The total for each team does not include it’s lazy bums or senior citizens.
Baltimore (4)
27-1
26-3
25-4
24-3
23-3
22-4
21-2
Total: 20
Berlin (2)
27-0
26-2
25-4
24-1
23-5
22-9
21-0
Total: 21
Chicago (4)
27-0
26-1
25-3
24-4
23-3
22-9
21-5
Total: 25
Colorado (3)
27-0
26-2
25-4
24-5
23-3
22-5
21-1
Total: 20
Philadelphia (8)
27-0
26-1
25-10
24-2
23-0
22-1
21-2
Total: 16
Sarasota (4)
27-0
26-2
25-3
24-5
23-1
22-7
21-1
Total: 19
Yellowknife (5)
27-0
26-2
25-4
24-1
23-2
22-8
21-1
Total: 18
Arizona (6)
27-0
26-1
25-5
24-3
23-2
22-6
21-2
Total: 19
Austin (1)
27-1
26-1
25-5
24-3
23-6
22-5
21-1
Total: 23
Honolulu (8)
27-0
26-2
25-2
24-2
23-2
22-5
21-0
Total: 13
New Orleans (10)
27-0
26-2
25-5
24-4
23-1
22-3
21-2
Total: 17
New York (4)
27-1
26-2
25-8
24-2
23-2
22-3
21-2
Total: 20
Orange County (4)
27-1
26-0
25-4
24-2
23-4
22-6
21-4
Total: 21
San Jose (1)
27-0
26-1
25-4
24-2
23-3
22-6
21-2
Total: 18
Well that’s quite an interesting list.
Now some of you may recall that back before S22 when we had 12 teams, I, like many others, advocated for a four team expansion. The league was cautious and only announced two teams, who have now played several seasons each. I mention it to note that even then the idea that we ought to expand more existed. And to ask the question...are we bigger now than we were then? If we are, that’s going to be one step towards it, in my opinion. That’s a total of 7 teams who are already at what I’d call capacity. Almost all of the rest are right on it. And just to remind you, that total is without counting the IA and old players. And presuming everyone has 2 OL players. I’m really packing in every team just to get to 20. So half the teams in the league are at capacity or over without even accounting for IAs and players in regression. Or send downs. Because don't forget, we have over 70 send downs. So let’s roll with these numbers again, just to give you a refresher.
ISFL Players- 270
Old and Inactive ISFL players- 64
DSFL Send Downs- 75
S28- 65+
Now. That’s a shitload of numbers. I get that. That translates to an average of 19.28 players active ISFL per team. The 139 combined send downs, olds, and IA players also average out to 9.99 players per team. Plus the unaccounted for 65+ S28 players. That is in my view is more than enough for expansion.
That said, let’s look at the opposing side. We cannot say how many of the 65+ prospects from S28 will still be here in two seasons. Some of these current active players will not recreate for one reason or another. The DSFL’s health will be affected if we suddenly pluck 40 additional players and put them on ISFL rosters.
I view the first point as a given. We’ll likely still have about 30 of those S28 players in two seasons. Noted. Agreed. That’s what history says. Though I personally am optimistic that with a smaller than usual reddit class, we may be able to keep more from getting lost in the shuffle. That is simply a belief I have no proof of yet. The second point is more or less an extension of the first. We’re likely to lose some people to random life events, disinterest, deciding to create a new player, etc. It’s hard to calculate how many that really is but it’s going to happen at least a little.
The third point is not something I’m as worried over. The point of the DSFL is to develop, not to be full. Being “too empty” is a successful situation and not a problem in my view. Others have a different view. Whether they’re right or I am, it doesn’t change anything. The DSFL is a big powerful entity in its own right and it can’t be simply drained. Expansion right now would remove almost ⅓ of the DSFL’s current player count. I personally think that is fine. Even on the scale of not emptying the DSFL I think it’s fine. If some teams have to field bots in a few spots that’s really not the end of the world. It means you as a DSFL GM have succeeded in your job and your players are busy being on real rosters. The DSFL GM who has 3 players go in the top 5 is usually better than the one who wins the Ultimini in my view. Or..you know...1,2,3. I dunno if anyone’s ever done that though. That would be cool. But..to get back to the point I’m working towards here, the DSFL has to be considered. At bare minimum because of its function and from a more practical standpoint, because a hell of a lot of people in this league view it on a different level than I do. You can’t just ignore them and their view here. Even if I had total power I couldn’t and shouldn’t do it.
There is one final but important thing to consider. There has never been a better time to expand to 16 teams. We’re beginning the first season of play with the new sim this season. And…..that S28 class contains something incredibly special. This is the greatest QB class in league history by a mile. It’s legitimately not even close. Two expansion teams getting to draft their QB of the future right away, AND other teams still having numerous great choices for the position is an option we’ve never had before. We do now at this very specific and special moment. This position has struggled through numerous extremes throughout league history and this represents the potential to be an absolute peak. It’s an opportunity to take advantage of.
So what does that all mean? Well in my view, after going over the number, assessing the recent history of the league, considering the QB question, and considering the priorities of its members, here’s what I propose. We should have a delayed expansion in the same vein that we did in S15. What I mean by that is that two expansion teams drafted players in S15 but did not play in S15. The players themselves remained in the DSFL for an extra season. The two teams then drafted in S16, had an expansion draft just after, and then took the field in S16. I believe that is the answer here. Announce expansion after S27 and allow the two new teams to build their roster in S28 and S29 offseasons before taking the field when S29 itself begins. Address the current state of things but slow it down one beat. Allow for an extra offseason so as to protect the DSFL. Take advantage of the QB chance. Bring us to 16 teams. Vote for me.
Obviously that last one is a bit separate but you hopefully see where I’m coming from on this. There it is. Analysis backed by numbers. Thanks for coming to my Ted Talk.
RE: Should We Expand (Hint: Yes) - Thiath - 01-19-2021
Barcelona when?
RE: *Should We Expand (Hint: Yes) - ValorX77 - 01-19-2021
Interesting scenario, but I don’t think it’s going to happen, most of these QB’s timed it just right to replace those S22 guys.
RE: *Should We Expand (Hint: Yes) - manicmav36 - 01-19-2021
@AdamS something to consider. Our last reddit class, something that has massively inflated our numbers, was in comparison to others, a huge let down. With only 58 creates it's far below what we're used to. Could this be due to events on that day, or are we finally seeing diminishing returns? Something to think about.
Something else to consider, we need, on average, 2-3 actives a season, per team, just to maintain our league. With a retention rate of around 40%, that means that our last reddit class gave us, roughly, 23 active members. With 14 teams currently, we need an absolute minimum of 28 active users each season (however, the actual number we need would be closer to 35). This means that with our last reddit class, we are actually already falling behind maintaining our 14 team league.
To expand when we're already behind with a class that has, historically, artificially inflated our numbers would be a massive mistake.
RE: *Should We Expand (Hint: Yes) - CLG Rampage - 01-19-2021
expand dong
RE: *Should We Expand (Hint: Yes) - gucci - 01-19-2021
It makes little sense to expand with the recent classes we’ve had, so consider it a guarantee that it will happen in the coming seasons.
RE: *Should We Expand (Hint: Yes) - 124715 - 01-19-2021
(01-19-2021, 04:12 AM)AdamS Wrote: average of 19.28 players active ISFL per team
I agree with pretty much everything you wrote but as someone who has also been here forever I just want to point out how high this number is
RE: *Should We Expand (Hint: Yes) - AdamS - 01-19-2021
(01-19-2021, 09:23 AM)manicmav36 Wrote: @AdamS something to consider. Our last reddit class, something that has massively inflated our numbers, was in comparison to others, a huge let down. With only 58 creates it's far below what we're used to. Could this be due to events on that day, or are we finally seeing diminishing returns? Something to think about.I did have you in mind in the first paragraph.
Something else to consider, we need, on average, 2-3 actives a season, per team, just to maintain our league. With a retention rate of around 40%, that means that our last reddit class gave us, roughly, 23 active members. With 14 teams currently, we need an absolute minimum of 28 active users each season (however, the actual number we need would be closer to 35). This means that with our last reddit class, we are actually already falling behind maintaining our 14 team league.
To expand when we're already behind with a class that has, historically, artificially inflated our numbers would be a massive mistake.
The 2-3 actives is basically a number you personally have decided on and championed for quite some time now and doesn't actually have any foundation. That said, I removed S22 from the equation and checked S23 onward. Each class exceeds even the figure of 35. S23 is the only one under 40 even.
Your claim that we're already falling behind is based on dooming a class who hasn't been drafted yet, this time. You have of course had several claims that we're falling behind ahead of every expansion except for the one that happened after we nearly doubled the size of the league. Even that was grudging as I recall.
The simple fact is you make this case every single time and I cant remember when you've been right yet.
(01-19-2021, 10:45 AM)gucci Wrote: It makes little sense to expand with the recent classes we’ve had, so consider it a guarantee that it will happen in the coming seasons.just a quick reminder to anyone reading this that gucci also doesnt think we should have an audit team
RE: *Should We Expand (Hint: Yes) - timeconsumer - 01-19-2021
I'll make you a deal:
We expand once more to 16 teams then we only recruit the minimum necessary to sustain that from there on out.
League is too damn big.
RE: *Should We Expand (Hint: Yes) - AdamS - 01-19-2021
(01-19-2021, 10:36 PM)timeconsumer Wrote: I'll make you a deal:i think that 16 is probably where we're gonna be for a long while either way
We expand once more to 16 teams then we only recruit the minimum necessary to sustain that from there on out.
League is too damn big.
(01-19-2021, 10:57 AM)124715 Wrote:agreed(01-19-2021, 04:12 AM)AdamS Wrote: average of 19.28 players active ISFL per team
I agree with pretty much everything you wrote but as someone who has also been here forever I just want to point out how high this number is
i dont think people really realize how low many historic teams were in their number of actives compared to now