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+---- Thread: *Running Back Success Rate: Week 10 (/showthread.php?tid=30104)
*Running Back Success Rate: Week 10 - ztarwarz - 02-19-2021
What the hell happened with leads this week? Anyways, this wasn't a great running day for a lot of backs, at least that's the impression I got from the games I watched, so let's see the damage.
Yellowknife Wraiths at Berlin Fire Salamanders:
Wraiths Rushers:
Acura Skyline: 6/10
Jameson Vermillion: 0/2
Salamanders Rushers:
Joseph Petrongolo: 10/18
Terry Yaki: 0/1
I say that and then I get a game where both top rushers had great efficiency days. Skyline started out poor on the day, not having a success until late in the 3rd. He then got a pair of short yardage successes, with a 2 yard gain on 2nd and 3 and a 3 yard gain on 2nd and 5. He then strung together 3 straight successes, starting with a 3 yard run on 2nd and 6, a 7 yard run on the ensuing 3rd and 3, and finishing it off with a 45 yard touchdown carry to seal off the game for the Wraiths. His yards per carry do take a heavy, heavy hit if you take out that run, falling to 2.4 from 6.7, but his ability to succeed on 6 of his last 7 carries helped put the Wraiths back in this game.
Petrongolo in my opinion outplayed his opposite, in part due to a higher number of double digit carries. He got 3 touchdowns early, and got a number of short yardage successes out of that; a 1 yard touchdown run, a 3 yard run on 1st and goal from the 3, and a 1 yard touchdown run to follow that up immediately. He'd string together 3 double digit length carries in a row to lead to an end of 1 half and a goal to go possession, but after that things stalled as the Salamanders let the Wraiths back in the game. If you take out his long, he falls to just under 4.5 yards per carry from 5.9, despite the poor end to his day and to the Salamanders offense's day in general.
Chicago Butchers at Colorado Yeti:
Butchers Rushers:
Baby Yoda: 6/16
George O'Donnell: 0/1
Julio Tirtawidjaja: 0/1
Yeti Rushers:
Richard Gilbert: 7/10
Anders Christiansen: 1/2
This game didn't exactly have a massive lead lost, but the Yeti were up by 10 at one point and the Butchers running game was not exactly the group that got them back in the game. Yoda did not have a success until the 2nd half, where he pulled off 2 successes in a row, then 3 successes in a row with only one failure in between them. Outside of that 5/6 section, Yoda's only success was a 17 yard carry. Taking that carry out causes Yoda to fall to just over 2 yards per carry. I'm surprised it was quite that low, but then again one of Yoda's successes was only 3 yards.
Gilbert has every right to feel robbed about his performance. While a couple of his successes were short yardage (a 3 yard gain on 3rd and 3, and a 1 yard touchdown run) he contributed to every single scoring drive in the first half as the Yeti scored 20 points. That being said, he only got 2 runs in the 2nd half, both unsuccessful, as the Yeti lost the lead and eventually the game as the production dried up. I wonder how much of that was a result of being down by 1 point and the sim deciding that meant the Yeti should just stop running altogether. Even taking out Gilbert's long of 19, he only falls from 5.9 to 4.4 yards per carry, a great rushing day no matter how you look at it. Christiansen's one success was a 10 yard run that put the Yeti in easy field goal range at the end of the 1st half.
Sarasota Sailfish at Austin Copperheads:
Sailfish Rushers:
Raphtalia Chan: 4/19
Running Back: 2/5
Copperheads Rushers:
Zoe Watts: 7/14
Jim the Vampire: 1/1
Kichwa Jones: 0/1
No wonder the Sailfish almost lost this game, when Chan has that bad of a performance. Hell, one of her successes was a 1 yard touchdown run set up by the passing attack. Another successful carry of hers, an 8 yard gain on 2nd and 12, was directly wiped out by her unsuccessful carries on both 1st and 3rd down. She also had an 8 yard carry on 1st down and a 19 yard carry, but that did nothing to hide how poor she was for most of the night. She killed off multiple drives almost entirely on her own. She doesn't even escape the Remove Long method, where she falls from 2.2 yards per carry to 1.2 just by removing her 19 yarder. That doesn't even include her 0 yard carry on a 2 point conversion. Back had a 5 yard carry and an 18 yard carry to begin the game, but would fail on his next 3 carries including a 0 yard carry on a 4th and 2.
Watts began the day with 4 straight successes, albeit 2 of them were short yardage successes: 2 yard gains on 2nd and inches and 2nd and 4. Watts would later get robbed on one rush, with a 4 yard carry on 2nd and 10, before taking advantage of short yardage situations on 2 more rushes later in the 3rd quarter. This included another 2 yard rush on 2nd down, this time with 1 yard to gain, and a short gain on 1st and Goal from the 1. This would be her final successful rush of the night, however. Jim the Vampire's lone success and lone rush was a 1 yard touchdown run to clean up that goal to go opportunity. Watts falls to 3.2 once you remove her long of 14, which isn't that big of a hit considering she had a 3.9 overall.
Philadelphia Liberty at Baltimore Hawks:
Liberty Rushers:
Darrell Williams: 10/19
Sam Torenson: 6/15
Fuzzy Dotson: 1/2
Hawks Rushers:
Mai Fukushu: 5/19
Chika Fujiwara: 1/1
Matthias Hanyadi: 0/1
Darrell Williams appeared to be lined up for an OK day statwise but a subpar efficiency day. Then the 2nd half rolled around. Williams began the 2nd half with 4 successes on 5 carries, the shortest of which was for 6 yards. He had 5 double digit carries on the night, and although he did get the benefit of a couple short yardage successes on the night (2 yard carry on 1st and goal from the 4, followed by a 2 yard touchdown rush) he generally did an amazing job at keeping the chains moving on multiple scoring drives, each of which was extremely important in helping the Liberty come back and win this game. Williams with 5.9 yards per carry doesn't even get hit all THAT hard by the Remove Long method, falling to 5.2 once you remove his long of 20. Sam Torenson had half of his successes clustered in 3 carries on 2 scoring drives: an 11 yard carry, an 8 yard carry on 1st and 10, and then succeeding at the 2 point conversion off of Williams' touchdown run. The rest of his night wasn't all that great, though; Torenson's 3 other successes were all carries on 1st down for 5 yards or less, one of which he wiped out with an unsuccessful carry on 3rd down. No wonder he was under 3 yards per carry, and he falls to 2.2 once you remove his long of 11. That's as many yards per carry lost as Williams, and a much, much higher ratio. Finally, congratulations to Fuzzy Dotson, who just last week became the first person to get double digit carries and not have any successes. His first successful carry of the season was a 5 yard carry on 3rd and 2.
The Hawks continue to not have a very successful rushing attack this season. Fukushu was both extremely feast or famine, and ALSO a beneficiary from short yardage successes. Over half of her successes were short yardage, a short gain on 2nd and Goal from the 1, a 2 yard gain on 2nd and 3, and a 1 yard gain on 4th and 1. Only her short gain on 2nd and Goal helped with a touchdown drive. Chika Fujiwara's probable last rush in a Baltimore uniform was a 4 yard carry on 2nd and 4 for a 1st down.
Honolulu Hahalua at New York Silverbacks:
Hahalua Rushers:
Nicholas Ayers: 3/9
Cobra Kai: 3/7
Tristian Hex: 0/1
Luke Skywalker: 0/1
Silverbacks Rushers:
Captain Rogers: 5/13
Ashley Owens: 2/5
Buster Bawlls: 1/1
Not an amazing day rushing for the Hahalua, but their running backs could have put them back in this game. Ayers was mediocre, but did have a clutch 5 yard carry on 4th and 3 to put the Hahalua into field goal range. Unfortunately for them they got sacked out of it. Each of Ayers' other 2 successes came on a drive that would have them score, although generally I'd say Kai was a bit more effective of a rusher on the day. Ayers only had 3.6 yards per carry and does take a bit of a hit from the remove long method, falling to 2.6 once you remove his long of 11. Kai to compare had 7.6 yards per carry, had a long of 23, and still has a 5 yards per carry average once you remove that long. Kai had a pair of his successes on the drive to open the scoring for the Hahalua, including bringing the ball inside the 5 from outside the Red Zone on a single carry. His other success came on a drive that ended in a field goal, a 10 yard carry on 3rd and 3 that got the Hahalua over midfield. He also had another important carry that would have been successful, an 11 yard carry on 3rd and 2 that put the Hahalua into easy field goal range...but he fumbled on the play. That he recovered it doesn't matter for the rankings. Speaking of fumbling...Skywalker's likely last carry in a Hahalua uniform was a 1 yard carry on 3rd and inches, with the team only down 7, driving, inside New York territory. He fumbled the ball away to the Silverbacks, ending the possibility of a comeback right then and there.
2 of Rogers' first 3 carries were 3 yard long successes on 2nd and 4 and 3rd and 1. These wouldn't be his only short yardage successes, as he cleaned up a return to the inch line by the punt team for a touchdown. They only went to him 4 times during the second half and he only got 1 success on those carries. His yards per carry do fall from 2.5 to 1.8 once you take out his long of 11. Owens' two successes came in a 3 play timespan, a 5 yard carry on 3rd and inches inside the red zone, followed by a 10 yard touchdown run almost immediately afterwards. These accounted for 15 yards of his 14 yard day, he had a total of -1 yard on his 3 unsuccessful carries. Finally, Buster Bawlls only had one run, a touchdown carry on 1st and goal from the 1.
San Jose Sabercats at New Orleans Second Line:
Sabercats Rushers:
Jamar Lackson: 4/17
Rando Cardrissian: 4/10
Monty Jack: 2/3
Second Line Rushers:
Mr Forty Two: 3/8
Mike Rotchburns: 2/5
Speaking of teams who let teams come back on them in part due to poor second half rushing performances, how are you doing Sabercats? Really though, outside of 4 straight rushes to cap off a touchdown drive that were all successful, the Sabercats were not exactly excellent on the day. One of Lackson's successes is a completely useless 23 yard carry to end the 1st half that wasn't even close to field goal range, much less pay dirt. His other successes were an 11 yard carry to help contribute to that touchdown drive mentioned earlier, and a pair of medium length rushes for 1st downs on the drive that would see the Sabercats tie up the game late in the 4th. His yards per carry fall to 2.3 from 3.5 once you take out the completely useless long rush, and thus I think Cardrissian actually outperformed him on the day. Sure, one of his successes was a 3 yard touchdown run, technically short yardage success. A second success was a 1 yard carry on 4th and 1 to clean up his own failure on 3rd and 4, and that might have been his only success of the second half, but I still think Cardrissian played better tonight. He falls to 2.4 once you remove his long of 12. Granted, neither were all that good really. Monty Jack, however, was downright excellent as a rusher. He had a 0 yard carry, a 5 yard carry on 2nd and 5, and an 8 yard touchdown carry.
The Second Line didn't run the ball much considering they were down for the vast majority of the day, but they had a decent success rate when they did so. Mr Forty Two has a terrible yards per carry rate, in large part because 2 of his successes, each for 5 yards, take up 2/3rds of his total on the day. His last success was a 1 yard touchdown carry to bring the Second Line within one score. Rotchburns also had a short yardage success, this one a 2 yard gain on 2nd and 2. His other success was a 15 yard carry to bring the Second Line into field goal range on that drive Mr Forty Two scored on. Removing that does absolutely destroy his yards per carry considering he only had 5 carries, it goes from 4.4 to 1.75.
Orange County Otters at Arizona Outlaws:
Otters Rushers:
Ace Savage: 5/12
Jeffrey Phillips:6/10
Outlaws Rushers:
Tatsu Nakamura: 6/16
Gunner Thorbjornsson: 0/2
Man, did the Otters corner the market on short yardage successes today, as I seem to remember them doing a lot. 3 of Savage's 5 successes were short yardage, a 2 yard gain on 2nd and 3, a 2 yard gain on 3rd and inches, and a 1 yard gain on 2nd and 1. Outside of these, he had a 4 yard carry on 1st and 10, and a 13 yard carry. Without that 13 yard carry, he falls to just under 1.5 yards per carry from his current 2.4, which makes sense considering he only had 2 carries over 2 yards in length all day. Phillips actually benefitted more from short yardage successes compared to Savage, with 4 of his six being short yardage. He had a 3 yard carry on 2nd and 3, a 1 yard carry on 2nd and 2, a 2 yard carry on 2nd and 2, and a 2 yard carry on 2nd and 4. One of his other successes was worthwhile, a 34 yard rush to get into field goal range. However, his other success, a 5 yard carry on 1st and 10, was immediately wiped out by a 2 yard loss on 2nd down.
This wasn't by any means Nakamura's best day, but he did set up and convert a couple key first downs. He opened the day with his long of 45, which when taken out does cause his yards per carry to fall to 3.1 from their current 5.7. He set up a couple of key field goal attempts, most notably with an 8 yard carry with less than a minute left in the half to give JJJJ an attempt from under 45 yards out. Thorbjornsson, meanwhile, got kind of robbed by my methodology. He had a carry of 4 yards and 3 yards according to the sim. That 4 yard carry was on 3rd and 8 so it wasn't successful, and the 3 yard carry was on 1st and 10 but led to a 2nd and 6.
Alright, time for the master list.
100% Jackie Daytona 2/2 (+2) AUS
51.9% Gunner Thorbjornsson 27/52 (+2) ARI
50% Matthias Hanyadi 13/26 (0) BAL
50% Chika Fujiwara 4/8 (0) BAL
50% Suleiman Ramza 1/2 (0) OCO
50% Brock Phoenix 1/2 (0) PHI
46.2% Anders Christiansen 12/26 (-2) COL
43.9% Joseph Petrongolo 58/132 (-16) BER
43.0% Tatsu Nakmura 89/207 (-29) ARI
42.3% Jameson Vermillion 33/78 (-12) YKW
41.3% Jeffrey Phillips 33/80 (-14) OCO
40% Bronko Mills 2/5 (-1) OCO
40% Forrest Gump 2/5 (-1) NOLA
40% Colby Jack 2/5 (-1) YKW
39.3% Raphtalia Chan 81/206 (-44) SAR
38.6% Captain Rogers 54/140 (-32) NYS
38.5% Buster Bawls 5/13 (-3) NYS
38.3% Richard Gilbert 57/149 (-35) COL
38.1% Jamar Lackson 59/155 (-37) SJS
37.5% Monty Jack 3/8 (-2) SJS
37.3% Cobra Kai 25/67 (-17) HON
36.6% Sam Torenson 37/101 (-27) PHI
36.6% Running Back 26/71 (-19) SAR
36.4% Acura Skyline 47/129 (-35) YKW
35.6% Baby Yoda 72/202 (-58) CHI
35.6% Zoe Watts 48/135 (-39) AUS
34.2% Darrell Williams 52/152 (-48) PHI
33.3% George O'Donnell 1/3 (-1) CHI
33.3% Mike Boss Jr 1/3 (-1) SAR
32% Ashley Owens 16/50 (-18) NYS
31.9% Terry Yaki 15/47 (-17) BER
31.8% Rando Cardrissian 28/88 (-32) SJS
31.5% Ace Savage 29/92 (-34) OCO
31.5% Nicholas Ayers 41/130 (-48) HON
29.6% Mike Rotchburns 24/81 (-33) NOLA
29.2% Mr. Forty Two 26/89 (-37) NOLA
29.2% Mai Fukushu 50/171 (-71) BAL
25% Nick Kaepercolin 1/4 (-2) BER
25% Julio Tirtawidjaja 8/32 (-16) CHI
22.2% Jim the Vampire 4/18 (-10) AUS
18.2% Sigismund Sternenstaub 2/11 (-7) SAR
14.3% Kichwa Jones 1/7 (-5) AUS
8.3% Fuzzy Dotson 1/12 (-10) PHI
0% Ben Slothlisberger 0/2 (-2) NOLA
0% Tristian Hex 0/2 (-2) HON
0% Sam Howitzer 0/1 (-1) NYS
0% Charlemagne Cortez 0/2 (-2) ARI
0% Luke Skywalker 0/4 (-4) HON
0% Zed Keppler 0/8 (-8) CHI
For the first time in a while, Nakamura is dethroned as king of efficiency of those with over 100 carries, Petrongolo is on top! Overall the top is still Thorbjornsson not counting Daytona.
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