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+---- Thread: *Kicking/Punting Sim Review (/showthread.php?tid=30289)
*Kicking/Punting Sim Review - Painted - 02-26-2021
Preface
Recently, with everyone hopping on the double media train and finding potential issues with the new sim, there is a load of new content and information being spread in the community. And that is great! But there appears to be one key area that is going unnoticed and flat out ignored! I am of course referring to the kicking/punting situations of the sim. You all must not forget that Punters are People too!
So I decided to take it upon myself to dive into how the new sim has affected the kicking and punting game. As for my data combing process, I wanted to first look at the totals for both seasons 26 and 27 of the ISFL and potentially compare them to “real-life” data in the NFL. After all this is a simulation and we want to get as close to reality as possible, even if that means the stats per season end up declining.
For the kicking position, I wanted to break it down into extra points, overall field goal percentage, field goal range percentages (like less than 20 yards, 20-30 yards, etc.), and finally the average long for the league as a whole. For punting, I wanted to focus on average punting yards, number of punts inside the twenty, and finally the average long punt for the league. To compare with the NFL, percentages are simple and can be compared outright, however for volume stats that is not necessarily the case. I tried my best to normalize it considering the incredible number of extra attempts the NFL has over the ISFL, but I ended up not finding a good way to do so. So ultimately, volume stats could not be compared.
Data and Analysis
So without any further explanation, let us dive into the details and look at the results. Below is the data from my findings summarized into two tables, the first for kicking and the second for punting statistics. For clarity, the stats which ended up higher were highlighted in green, lower in red, and stats with relatively no change were highlighted yellow. The NFL comparisons of key stats were highlighted blue.
![[Image: mfcdyb2.png]](https://i.imgur.com/mfcdyb2.png)
![[Image: Op624bw.png]](https://i.imgur.com/Op624bw.png)
First diving into the kicking data, the first observation is that the overall field goal percentage has decreased significantly from 94% to 87%. This was most likely very noticeable for old fans of the sim because now field goals are not nearly as much as a gimmie. Another interesting thing to notice was that the extra point percentage went up by 3 points to now 98.7%. So on the flip side of FGs, extra points are now more or less guaranteed!
Now to rationalize the volume stats, the NFL comparisons show that the extra point percentage is actually trending in the wrong direction and should have been getting worse to around 93%. Now if this league assumes that the XP line is at the 2 yard line like how the NFL used to be then that would not be the case and an XP percent of nearly 99% is very reasonable. The NFLs rule change to the extra point being moved to the 15 yard line is what caused its dip in made XPs. Moving onto the field goals, while yes the new sim is now much more inaccurate, the new sim is actually more realistic! Field goals should not be easy, and by missing what most assume to be a free three points, the games become much more unpredictable, interesting, and fun.
Changing gears to field goal ranges and the average longs, we noticed literally no change in kicks under twenty yards. Honestly, this is expected. These kicks should be cake walks for professional kicking athletes so no change from 100% to 100% is good for the league and you can notice it is the same for the NFL. The twenty-, thirty-, and forty-yard ranges are where it gets more interesting, however. This is where we notice the major drop in FG percentage as well with the forty-yard range being the biggest loser at nearly a 10% drop. But once you compare these percentages with the NFL you will notice that they are practically identical! Thus, meaning the new sim in season 27 is actually performing quite well in the mid-range kicking game (with “well” being a relative term if you prefer realism over guaranteed points). The fifty plus yard range is where we notice an anomaly as the new sim has a 6.7% increase on average over the old sim. This is great for the teams that must rely on clutch field goals from a long way out, but not good overall for realism. The NFL’s average was higher than the old sim by nearly 3%, but it seems the new sim overcorrected in this fact. Finally, the league average longs are within 1 yard of each other from season 26 to 27. This is practically a rounding error, so effectively there has been no change there.
Next, let us look at the punting numbers! Once again, right off the bat we notice the average yard per punt has slightly decreased by half a yard from the old sim to the new one similar to the drop in field goal percentage. While not a major difference, because of the sheer volume of punts, a half yard difference is still significant because it implies the bell curve has still shifted. To most, myself included, this is not a major issue and leads to the argument that the new sim has had no effect on punting yards since 46.8 yards and 46.3 yards are practically the same distance on a football field. Comparing this to the NFL, however, this is an area that most likely should have been nerfed more. There is well over a 1 yard difference between the old sim and the NFL’s average of 45.6 yards per punt.
Finally, looking at the number of punts inside the 20 and average long punts, these two areas saw major differences between the sims in different directions, but for likely the same reason I believe. For the punts inside the 20, it appears the new sim has given an edge for the punting position. But this could be due to many outside factors. My own theory is that because of the new passing meta, when teams are now stopped on third down, many times they are more likely to be further down field but not close enough for a FG try. So they punt it, and because they are close they are able to pin the other team inside the 20 easier. Similarly, this has seen a decrease in the average long punt since the team is closer to the endzone than normal in the first place. And the punts that would be able to achieve new longs become touchbacks. This is just a baseless theory, however, with not nearly enough tape watch to back it up. I would love to see an article about this if anyone else is brave enough (or bored enough).
Finale/Major Takeaways/TL;DR
Overall, it seems that the new sim really has not affected the kicker/punter position. There are few major differences in the sims that warrant concern, and the ones that do, such as the lower field goal percentage, are actually better for realism when using the NFL as a baseline. As for my suggestions to fix the sim, it is actually an easy fix! You need not change anything about the kicking and punting in the league. For this position, I argue that the sim is actually doing better and thus it is not an area of concern like the running back position appears to be! Finally, just to cover all bases, while this article does not explicitly state how to change the sim, it at least points to an area where the sim is successful. These types of things should also be confirmed as not everything can be viewed under a critical or negative light. Many research projects go unpublished because they reaffirm things we already knew or felt were true. This article is one such of these findings.
Words: 1366
RE: Kicking/Punting Sim Review - infinitempg - 02-26-2021
great article! love seeing other users take a dive into the kickers and punters because they are people too
just one note...
(02-26-2021, 12:08 AM)Painted Wrote: Finally, looking at the number of punts inside the 20 and average long punts, these two areas saw major differences between the sims in different directions, but for likely the same reason I believe. For the punts inside the 20, it appears the new sim has given an edge for the punting position. But this could be due to many outside factors. My own theory is that because of the new passing meta, when teams are now stopped on third down, many times they are more likely to be further down field but not close enough for a FG try. So they punt it, and because they are close they are able to pin the other team inside the 20 easier. Similarly, this has seen a decrease in the average long punt since the team is closer to the endzone than normal in the first place. And the punts that would be able to achieve new longs become touchbacks. This is just a baseless theory, however, with not nearly enough tape watch to back it up. I would love to see an article about this if anyone else is brave enough (or bored enough).
you can check out my Surrender Punts article for an in-depth look, but the punting mechanics in 21 are a huge improvement, mainly in the fact that the sim has learned how to pin the ball inside the 20. before it just used to be a function of field position and if you were too close to your opponents endzone when punting it was an automatic touchback. now, the sim is smart enough to adjust how much power to put into a punt to try and land the ball inside the 20!
RE: Kicking/Punting Sim Review - Painted - 02-26-2021
(02-26-2021, 11:36 AM)infinitempg Wrote: great article! love seeing other users take a dive into the kickers and punters because they are people too
just one note...
(02-26-2021, 12:08 AM)Painted Wrote: Finally, looking at the number of punts inside the 20 and average long punts, these two areas saw major differences between the sims in different directions, but for likely the same reason I believe. For the punts inside the 20, it appears the new sim has given an edge for the punting position. But this could be due to many outside factors. My own theory is that because of the new passing meta, when teams are now stopped on third down, many times they are more likely to be further down field but not close enough for a FG try. So they punt it, and because they are close they are able to pin the other team inside the 20 easier. Similarly, this has seen a decrease in the average long punt since the team is closer to the endzone than normal in the first place. And the punts that would be able to achieve new longs become touchbacks. This is just a baseless theory, however, with not nearly enough tape watch to back it up. I would love to see an article about this if anyone else is brave enough (or bored enough).
you can check out my Surrender Punts article for an in-depth look, but the punting mechanics in 21 are a huge improvement, mainly in the fact that the sim has learned how to pin the ball inside the 20. before it just used to be a function of field position and if you were too close to your opponents endzone when punting it was an automatic touchback. now, the sim is smart enough to adjust how much power to put into a punt to try and land the ball inside the 20!
Wow that's an incredible article! I'll definitely read it more in depth later this weekend! It's great to hear that punting has actually improved and not just random chance of being better.
RE: *Kicking/Punting Sim Review - Pib - 02-26-2021
#ForTheBrand