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*Do tight ends need to be buffed? - Printable Version

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*Do tight ends need to be buffed? - firstfray - 03-01-2021

After reading Shrubs article on how wide receivers and tight ends have fared with the sim change, I decided to take a deeper dive into what could be done to improve tight ends. Although I have not been in the league for long, I have felt like tight end is a position that is largely neglected. This is largely due to how hard it can be to produce in said position in the sim. However, in the NFL, we have some tight ends that are considered the #1 receiving threat on their teams. Like Shrub’s article mentioned, there aren’t enough tight ends that would be viewed as a top tier receiving threat. So, with this article, I’m going to try to come up with solutions to fix that.

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First up are the stats. A few tight ends performed quite well with Angler being able to crack 1000 receiving yards. McCormick came close with 920 but the rest of the tight ends weren’t all that close. In the NFL, we see stars like Travis Kelce, Darren Walker, and George Kittle as top receiving tight ends. So, I think we are close to optimizing tight ends but not quite there yet.

If we look at the pancakes and sacks allowed for each tight end, a few have managed to get 50 pancakes while some are still in the teens. This is where I feel like there needs to be a change. Below we have the archetype, TPE, and then strength, pass blocking, and run blocking attributes listed.

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Almost all tight ends are a vertical threat or possession tight end. Only one is a blocking tight end but they only have 334 TPE so it’ll be hard to judge how that archetype is really doing. However, if we take the average stats of the possession and vertical threat tight ends, there are a few surprises.

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First off, the vertical threat tight ends have about 85 TPE above the possession tight ends but since they have a relatively high TPE, I’m going to say that it’ll be negligible for the purposes of the comparison. We have good results at first with the vertical threat tight ends having 6 more receptions, 160 more yards, and almost 2 more yards per catch on average compared to the possession tight end. This makes sense because vertical threat tight ends should be the ones going down the field for longer gains. The touchdowns are similar, with both archetypes hovering just below 3 touchdowns. This is an area that I would hope to see an increase in for tight ends, but I don’t think adjusting any attributes would just change how many touchdowns a tight end gets. So far, not too bad.

Now is the confusing part. Both the vertical threat and possession tight ends had similar number of pancakes and vertical threat tight ends averaged 1 more sack. Not too bad right? Quite the opposite actually. If we look at relevant attributes to blocking (I chose to look at strength, pass blocking, run blocking, and hands) we see some questionable results. The strength attribute was equal with possession tight ends with only 2.5 more points. Likewise, there is only a 3-point difference in the hands rating. But in both run and pass blocking we see almost a 15-point difference in each attribute. So why are the blocking stats the same for these tight ends?

After some thought, I could only come up with three explanations. Either a.) the vertical threat tight ends were on run-first teams (Based on what I see I feel like pancakes occur more often on run plays, I may be wrong though) b.) there are a few other attributes that largely affect blocking (Agility? Speed? Intelligence?)  or c.) sim luck

The real answer is probably a mix of all three, but I decided to look a bit closer at the agility and intelligence attributes. The vertical threat tight ends end up edging out possession tight ends in both agility and intelligence, but not by much. So, without much conclusive evidence, I think there needs to be at least a season or two (or just more testing) of stats to get a good idea of what needs to be changed. Regardless, I’m going to try to tackle this and see how we could adjust the starting and maximum attributes for the three tight end archetypes.

Blocking TE
Strength: 50 - 90
Agility: 40 - 80
Intelligence: 45 - 80
Speed: 45 - 80
Hands: 35 - 75
Pass Blocking: 40 - 85
Run Blocking: 40 - 85
Endurance: 50 - 80
Competitiveness: 40 - 80

Possession TE
Strength: 50 - 85
Agility: 45 -80
Intelligence: 45 - 80
Speed: 50 - 85
Hands: 55 - 90
Pass Blocking: 35 - 60
Run Blocking: 35 - 60
Endurance: 50 - 90
Competitiveness: 40 - 80

Vertical Threat
Strength: 40 - 80
Agility: 45 - 85
Intelligence: 45 - 80
Speed: 55 - 90
Hands: 50 - 85
Pass Blocking: 20 - 50
Run Blocking: 20 - 50
Endurance: 50 - 90
Competitiveness: 35 - 75

As mentioned in Shrub’s article, we shouldn’t nerf the tight ends too much because they are already on the edge of being irrelevant. However, I feel like some of the archetypes should play to their names. For example, I see the vertical threat as a Travis Kelce or Darren Waller type of build. These players are known for exceptional receiving ability but perform poorly in blocking. So, I think their blocking should be lowered a bit more: maybe to 45 or 40 for the max but keep the starting 20 the same for both pass and run blocking. To balance this out, I think either the agility needs to be raised to 90 or speed to be increased to 95. Strength may need to be reduced to 75 but that’ll depend on how sim testing goes. I believe with this build we see a true vertical threat TE that is pretty much another wide receiver, which is exactly what Travis Kelce and Darren Waller are.

I think the possession tight ends are good with what they have for now, but it may need adjusting as we get more stats as the seasons go on. I see possession tight ends as big guys that can catch well but are pretty slow. I think the blocking stats are justified, higher than the vertical threat but not quite on the level of a blocking TE. From the stats, we see possession tight ends get less yard per catch than vertical threats so unless things change in the coming seasons, all should be good.

Finally, for the blocking TE, I don’t think we have enough data to make a decisive decision, but these guys are essentially glorified offensive linemen that can (kind of) catch. This should be a change after doing some testing, but I feel like they should have a max of 90 pass and run blocking, with their speed going down to 75.

TL; DR make blocking tight ends better!

RE: Do tight ends need to be buffed? - Swanty - 03-01-2021

This is awesome, thanks for sharing!!

It's interesting to see the breakdown of pancakes/sacks allowed by individual TE and their archetype. Gelbman and Manclaw really stand out as Vertical TEs who are getting tons of pancakes, whereas the ones at the bottom of the pancake charts, like Lewandowski, Angler, McCormick and Batista, are all Vertical TEs as well which is more to be expected. I would think it's more down to the playbooks that the team runs than the attributes to determine how extreme those pancake numbers are. Some playbooks will have them running routes frequently, but others will have them blocking most of the time (as you said, especially on run plays).

Re the relevant attributes, pancakes are determined by Strength, Hands, Pass Blocking and Run Blocking. Blocking success as a whole is determined by by Strength, Pass Blocking, Run Blocking, Agility, Intelligence and Hands. And weight also plays a factor, so those big Possession TEs will have a built-in advantage as well!

More details on those attributes here: https://forums.sim-football.com/showthread.php?tid=28568

RE: Do tight ends need to be buffed? - ZootTX - 03-01-2021

Another thing to consider is that the higher yardage TEs especially play out of the WR3/4 (and in some cases WR2) slot on some of their team's depth charts.

RE: Do tight ends need to be buffed? - shrub02 - 03-01-2021

Quote:To balance this out, I think either the agility needs to be raised to 90 or speed to be increased to 95.


More speed you say?? I'm in! I like to run fast