+- International Simulation Football League (https://forums.sim-football.com)
+-- Forum: Community (https://forums.sim-football.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=5)
+--- Forum: Media (https://forums.sim-football.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=37)
+---- Forum: Graded Articles (https://forums.sim-football.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=38)
+---- Thread: *Stats are Stupid Pt. I (/showthread.php?tid=31127)
*Stats are Stupid Pt. I - Alcott - 03-26-2021
Obviously this is a hyperbolic title not meant to be taken literally, but I do think there is some truth in the sensationalistic words. Stats don’t mean anything without context and can be used to completely mislead anyone given the wrong context, so they have to be treated very carefully, especially to new users. I assume that most users here are football fans, it would seem odd to me to join a football simulation league without either being a fan of the sport of at the very least friends with someone who is. And in my biased and non-expert opinion I would think that most football fans played the sport at some level at some point in their life, be it pick up games in the street as a kid all the way to potentially being a professional player who can’t get enough of the sport (which would be super cool, feel free to hit me up if you are/were a professional player). So working with the assumption most users have played, they should know the feeling of being productive in a game, and man does it feel good. It is one of the best feelings to be able to look back on a performance with pride, especially during a win, and know that you were one of the reasons the game turned out the way it did. It’s empowering, fulfilling, euphoric sometimes. But without the benefit of physically playing,the sim league provides only two options to gauge how our players performed, to look at the stats or to watch the film. I won’t lie and say that I’ve watched a single sim game that my player wasn’t in, because truthfully I can get enough info out of the boxscores to learn what I want to know about anyone that’s not me, which at this time is pretty much limited to fantasy play and weekly predictions. Sorry, but I’m selfish and really don’t care about your player unless it helps me. Now when I want to go and gauge my performance, because I do care about my player, the stat sheet can be incredibly misleading, even discouraging, especially at this early stage of my career. I have to assume that other new users feel pretty similar seeing blanks or low stat numbers when they first enter the league. This is where I want to stress to new users like myself that STATS ARE NOT EVERYTHING. If you aren’t watching the game you have no idea what those numbers actually mean, and to prove that I will give a three game breakdown of my player’s (S Cole Maxwell #20) relevant plays and how they compare to the stat sheet at the end of the game.
GAME !, DSFL Season 27 Week 2, Dallas Birddogs at Norfolk Seawolves
Play 1: 7:51 Q1 - The play ends up being a pass left, but from what I can tell my assignment was man coverage on TE #66, who runs a 10 yard stop route. My player holds position and breaks with the stop to keep a tight coverage on the TE and force the pass elsewhere - WIN
Play 2: 7:36 Q1 - Another pass left, and again it looks like a man coverage assignment on TE #95 this time. The TE runs a drag route across the formation that my player follows closely by, maintaining good coverage and forcing the pass to another player that wound up being dropped - WIN
Play 3: 7:17 Q1 - This looks to be maybe a zone coverage, hard to tell as it was a run play right all the way that my player broke on quickly. He did fail to get close enough to even attempt a tackle, but did re-route the ball carrier enough to allow the SS to close in and make the tackle after a 24 yard gain - Minor LOSS
Play 4: 6:29 Q1 - Coverage is back to man to man on TE #95, who runs a five yard stop at the fifty yard line. My player drives the route and stays on the TE, who doesn’t move at all while his QB scrambles, and keeps good coverage, forcing the pass to another player deep downfield that falls incomplete - WIN
Play 5: 0:34 Q1 - Man coverage on TE #95, who runs a five yard out I think. Again my player drives on the breaking route but it appears as though the TE was not the first read on the quick pass. Either way, the coverage was again solid - WIN
Play 6: 0:18 Q1 - Looks to be a zone coverage, either pure middle or a middle-deep carry with a single high over top. My player waits for someone to enter his zone, which doesn’t happen until after the catch by WR #3 on the slant. No tackle but helps to corral the ball carrier to the rest of the defense for a limited gain (penalty nullifies the play) - Minor WIN
Play 7: 12:48 Q2 - Another zone coverage, this time maybe deep quarters as neither safety moves on any of the short routes before the quick pass to TE #95 who catches it. My player starts driving to the ball carrier who is tackled by the LB in coverage before gaining any more yards - Minor WIN
Play 8: 10:51 Q2 - Another pass left, and again it looks like a man coverage assignment on TE #95. The TE runs a drag route across the formation that my player follows closely by, maintaining good coverage and forcing the pass to another player that wound up being broken up by the DB in coverage - WIN
Play 9: 10:38 Q2 - Appears to be zone coverage, deep half by the looks of it. Quick pass out short right to WR #82 where my player breaks towards the ball carrier who is tackled by the DB in coverage before gaining more yards - Minor WIN
Play 10: 7:43 Q2 - Another deep half zone look, my player comes up to cover TE#36 who runs a ten yard stop, and then starts to run further upfield as the QB sits in the pocket. Again my player stays in tight coverage on the double team and the pass goes to WR #82 who is tackled after the catch by the DB in coverage - WIN
Play 11: 6:41 Q2 - Deep half coverage again, this time no offensive players enter the zone so my player doesn’t break until the ball is thrown right to WR #82 who starts to break away from teh DB in coverage. As my player approached the WR tries to change direction but is tackled from behind by the DB - Minor WIN
Play 12: 5:38 Q2 - It appears to be man coverage on the RB/FB #20, who is staying in to block. My player stands there covering him while the QB scrambles the other way and throws an incompletion - Minor WIN
Play 13: 3:26 Q2 - Man to man coverage on TE #95, my player drives on the two to three yard stop and maintains close coverage forcing the QB to pass the ball left to another player ending in an incompletion - WIN
Play 14: 3:10 Q2 - Zone coverage call, maybe middle zone or deep halves, hard to tell as the ball was thrown almost immediately on a quick out to TE #95. My player drives towards the ball carrier and helps to corral him to another defender for the tackle - Minor WIN
Play 15: 2:39 Q2 - Quarters zone coverage, short pass to WR #66 underneath, where my player rallies to the ball to support another defender tackling the ball carrier - Minor WIN
Play 16: 2:14 Q2 - Deep quarters coverage again, pass is underneath to TE #95. My player rallies to assist another teammate in tackling the ball carrier (penalty nullifies the play) - Minor WIN
Play 17: 1:59 Q2 - Man to man coverage on TE #95, my player drives the short route for tight coverage and forces the QB to throw the ball to another player incomplete - WIN
Play 18: 1:47 Q2 - Man to man coverage on TE #95, my player drives the short route for tight coverage and forces the QB to throw the ball to another player complete for a short gain - WIN
Play 19: 1:16 Q2 - Not sure if it’s a man call or zone, but my player kind of floats downfield but towards TE #66 before meeting up with him on the ten yard hook, but stays in tight coverage afterwards until the QB is sacked - WIN
Play 20: 0:57 Q2 - Man coverage where my player drives to TE #95, who appears to be running a rub route to free WR #82 who gets the pass but drops it. Wither way my player was in good position to cover the TE and react to the WR if he caught the ball - WIN
Play 21: 13:15 Q3 - Run play right, my player flows and and sets containment on the edge to force the ball carrier back inside to the teeth of the defense - WIN
Play 22: 12:48 Q3 - Man to man coverage on TE #95, my player comes down to meet the TE on his five yard stop route, having good coverage the QB throws to another player with the pass falling incomplete - WIN
Play 23: 9:54 Q3 - Man to man coverage on TE #36, my player breaks on the five yard stop route, having tight coverage the ball is thrown to the TE but dropped - WIN
Play 24: 9:36 Q3 - Run play to the left, my player flows on the backside of the defense and helps to contain as the ball carrier turns back in - Minor WIN
Play 25: 0:11 Q3 - Run play to the left, my player flows on the backside of the defense and helps to contain as the ball carrier turns back in, however the ball carrier is able to stay far enough away to avoid an attempted tackled and gets by my player for an extra ten plus yards on the run - LOSS
Play 26: 12:54 Q4 - I’m honestly not really sure what is going on here, my player is coming down and following TE #66 like it’s man coverage, but started so far to the middle of the field that the quick out run by the TE is wide open for the catch and run as my player is too far behind in pursuit to catch up. Not sure if scheme or what? - LOSS
Play 27: 11:40 Q4 - Man to man coverage on TE #95, my player drives on the five yard stop, and despite the tight coverage the QB throws to the TE who drops the pass - WIN
Play 28: 10:00 Q4 - Man to man coverage on TE #36 who stays near the line, slowly floating back away from the line of scrimmage as the QB holds the ball. Tight coverage forces the QB to throw to another player - WIN
Play 29: 9:07 Q4 - Man to man coverage on TE #95, my player comes down to meet the TE on his five yard stop route, having good coverage the QB throws to another player to the right - WIN
Play 30: 8:29 Q4 - Either man or middle zone coverage, my player steps up to cover TE #95 on the five yard stop. With tight coverage, the QB starts to scramble and is eventually sacked - WIN
Play 31: 6:57 Q4 - Man to man coverage on TE #95, my player comes down to meet the TE on his five yard stop route, having good coverage the QB throws to another player to the left - WIN
Play 32: 3:30 Q4 - Looks like a zone play maybe, honestly hard to tell as my player doesn't move at all as TE #36 pushes up the field and breaks outside across my player’s face where he is targeted on the pass but it falls incomplete - LOSS
Play 33: 2:20 Q4 - Man to man coverage on TE #95, my player comes down to meet the TE on his five yard stop route, having good coverage the QB throws to another player in the middle of the field - WIN
Play 34: 1:58 Q4 - Man to man coverage on TE #95, my player comes down to meet the TE on his five yard stop route, having good coverage the QB throws to another player to the right (penalty nullifies the play) - WIN
Play 35: 0:31 Q4 - Man to man coverage on RB #20 who is either blocking or an outlet just past the line of scrimmage, either way my player stays on him while the QB throws to another player - WIN
Play 36: 0:09 Q4 - Man to man coverage on TE #95, my player comes down to meet the TE on his five yard stop route, having good coverage the QB throws to another player in the middle of the field - WIN
So the play by play grading came out to 23 reps with WINS (64 percent of plays), 9 reps with Minor WINS (25 percent of plays), 1 rep with a Minor LOSS (3 percent of plays) and 3 reps with a LOSS (8 percent of plays). As the first game being watched these percentages of plays have no context so I can’t really comment on them now, but trust me, I will eventually.. Overall I would rate my player as having a pretty good game, certainly an important part of a winning effort with matching up on TEs and forcing ball carriers back into the defense. However, the stat sheet looks much different, as he did not record a single statistic. Total blank. No tackles, no pass defenses, in fact the only thing putting his name on the recap was a single penalty for, you guessed it, zero yards. Only looking at the stat sheet gives a totally different impression than watching the game, making it seem like my player had no role in the win and didn’t contribute to the team at all, whereas the breakdown clearly shows that isn’t the case. Context matters.
So I pretty clearly underestimated a couple things when starting this project, first of which would be the sheer number of plays that happen in a simulated game and the total number of plays my player would be relevant in. I really thought there would be more deep zone coverages with underneath routes and short runs up the middle where my player would have no real bearing on the play. But because there are so many plays I also severely underestimated the amount of time needed to go watch the games, catalogue the plays, and analyze the coverage and results. Until I get a little bit better at it, I have to watch each play at least three times to get the time stamp, recognize the coverage and impact/result, and finally make sure I accurately asses the performance of the rep. With that said, I still plan on doing all three games worth analysis, but it will be in a couple segments now, so bear with me and I’ll try to make sure I have links to the previous article in any and all follow ups to this one.
Word Count: 2557
RE: Stats are Stupid Pt. I - Big Edd - 03-26-2021
somebody didn’t win an award lmfao
RE: Stats are Stupid Pt. I - j00 - 03-26-2021
Savage
RE: Stats are Stupid Pt. I - slate - 03-26-2021
Film study!!! I love it.