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+---- Thread: *Stats are Stupid Pt. II (/showthread.php?tid=31132)
*Stats are Stupid Pt. II - Alcott - 03-26-2021
Greetings my lovely ISFL compatriots, this is a continuation of my part one post, cleverly entitled “Stats are Stupid Pt. I” that can be found (Here). Please read part one to get a full idea of what I’m trying to accomplish with this analysis, but if you’re too cool for school and want to start out of order, the gist is that I don’t believe the end game statistics are a good indication of player performance. The last/first post focused on a game with almost zero statistical significance (a zero yard penalty and nothing else for anyone needing a peak) and in this post I will continue with my game analysis of my player (S Cole Maxwell #20) and how the stat sheet continues to lie to our faces. So without further adieu let’s dive in with, coincidentally, the game from the very next week.
Game 2, DSFL Season 27 Week 3, London Royals at Dallas Birddogs
Play 1: 10:40 Q1 - Run play to the right, my player comes up to fill the lane and is in position to make a tackle, however the ball carrier is dropped just before his arrival - Minor Win
Play 2: 9:39 Q1 - Looks like a man to man coverage on RB #1, who goes through the line and breaks to the left. My player is in a trail position the whole time and honestly wouldn’t be close enough to make a play if the ball went to the receiver, however the pass ends up going to a WR out further left - Minor LOSS
Play 3: 3:36 Q1 - Run play to the left, my player flows to his run lane in the middle of the field where a mob meets the ball carrier right in front of my player - Minor WIN
Play 4: 3:09 Q1 - Man to man coverage on TE #75, my player drives on the five yard stop and holds tight coverage, forcing the QB to pass to another player - WIN
Play 5: 2:51 Q1 - Possibly man to man on the TE #89, my player plays underneath the five yard stop, but still fairly close in coverage, forcing the QB to pass to another player - WIN
Play 6: 13:22 Q2 - Run play to the left, my player flows to his lane on the backside in the middle of the field, but gets sucked up too far towards the line of scrimmage. The ball carrier is too fast and beats the angle of attack, rushing by before my player could get close enough to even attempt a tackle - LOSS
Play 7: 12:10 Q2 - Man to man coverage on TE #75, my player drives on the five yard stop and holds tight coverage, forcing the QB to pass to another player - WIN
Play 8: 11:17 Q2 - Appears to be man to man on WR #24 who runs a seven yard dig route, crossing my players face and making the catch. Before the ball carrier gets any further another DB secures the tackle - LOSS
Play 9: 8:21 Q2 - Again, not exactly sure what to make of the coverage as my player doesn’t move until after the ball is thrown. The corner rushes in on a CB blitz, so my assumption would be it was my player’s responsibility to roll coverage over to the unguarded receiver but that didn’t happen. Again my speed isn’t enough to catch the ball carrier and there wasn’t a good enough angle taken to overcome that lack of speed. Not sure if this was a coverage bust or the CB gone rogue, but either way it was an ugly play - LOSS
Play 10: 6:51 Q2 - Run play left, my player flows to the middle of the field, filling the backside lane. Ball carrier is tackled before reaching the third level of the defense - Minor WIN
Play 11: 5:51 Q2 - Looks like man to man coverage on WR #24, my player breaks on the seven yard dig and is in tight coverage, forcing the QB to throw to another player - WIN
Play 12: 0:46 Q2 - Run play left, my player flows to the middle of the field, filling the backside lane. Ball carrier is tackled before reaching the third level of the defense - Minor WIN
Play 13: 0:29 Q2 - Run play right, my player flows out to set the edge, forcing the ball carrier back inside where the rest of the defense is able to rally and tackle - Minor WIN
Play 14: 14:28 Q3 - Man to man coverage on TE #89, my player holds steady at about ten yards, playing tight coverage on the ten yard stop route. Pass is thrown to another player to the left - WIN
Play 15: 10:55 Q3 - Man to man coverage on TE #89, my player drives on the five yard stop and maintains tight coverage. The pass is thrown to another player on the right - WIN
Play 16: 10:19 Q3 - Man to man coverage on TE#89, my player drives on the outlet pass to the TE at the line of scrimmage. The pass falls incomplete but my player was there to make a tackle had it been caught - WIN
Play 17: Man to man coverage on TE #75, my player drives on the five yard stop and maintains tight coverage as the TE slowly breaks to the middle of the field as the QB starts to scramble. Eventually the QB is forced to throw the ball to another receiver to the left - WIN
Play 18: 6:35 Q3 - Run play left, my player flows to the middle of the field, filling his backside run lane. Ball carrier is tackled before reaching the third level of the defense - Minor WIN
Play 19: 6:05 Q3 - Man to man coverage on TE #3, my player drives on the five yard stop and hold tight coverage, the pass is thrown to another player to the right - WIN
Play 20: 5:14 Q3 - Run play right, my player flows out to set the edge containment and force the ball carrier back inside - Minor WIN
Play 21: 1:01 Q3 - Man to man coverage on TE #75, looks like the TE stayed in to block by my player came up and stayed close. Pass was thrown to another player on the right - WIN
Play 22: :037 Q3 - Run play right, my player tries to shoot the gap and make a play close to the line of scrimmage, but isn’t fast enough to beat the ball carrier to the edge, allowing the RB to make it to the outside for a ten yard gain - LOSS
Play 23: 12:33 Q4 - Maybe a middle zone coverage or off man on TE #89, my player drops back at the start of the play before driving forward on the eight yard out route by the TE, pretty close coverage in a trial position. Ball is thrown to another receiver in the deep middle but is incomplete - WIN
Play 24: 12:02 Q4 - Man to man coverage on WR #24, my player breaks quickly on the speed out and maintains close coverage. Ball is thrown to another player in the middle of the field - WIN
Play 25: 1:50 Q4 - Man to man coverage on WR #6, my player moves over from inside position to cover the eight yard stop route. Ball is thrown to another player out to the right - WIN
Play 26: 1:17 Q4 - Man to man coverage on TE #89, my player breaks on the two yard stop route and maintains close coverage. Ball is thrown to another player on the right - WIN
Play 27: 0:45 Q4 - Man to man coverage on TE #85, my player drives on the TE who is staying in to block, then turns as an outlet option and receives the ball. The TE is tackled immediately by another defender but my player was also in position to make the play - WIN
Play 28: 0:13 Q4 - Man to man coverage on TE #89, my player drives on the five yard stop route and provides tight coverage. The QB is forced to hold the ball and take a sack to end the game - WIN
I would like to note that most of the fourth quarter was spent in a two deep look with either quick passes or short runs up the middle that my player really didn’t have any ability to do anything on, so the play sample size decreased a little bit from the first game we looked at. This type of play was more of what I expected when I first started the film breakdown, so I guess it will take watching game three to see if it is more of the norm or if the first game breakdown is more common. Going off the play by play grading, the performance came out with 16 reps as a WIN (57 percent of plays), 7 reps as a Minor WIN (25 percent of plays), 1 rep as a Minor LOSS (4 percent of plays), and 4 reps as a LOSS (14 percent of plays). Again, another game I would say my player turned in a very solid performance and definitely contributed to the win by winning his assignments on a routine basis, although by the percentages not as good as the first game reviewed. Granted the play disparity plays a role in that figure, as the Minor WINS stayed at the exact same percentage and my player only garnering one more LOSS and the same amount of Minor LOSS plays as the first game. But as before, no one would even know he played by looking at the stat sheet because this time he didn’t even have a zero yard penalty to get his name written down.
This week took a little less time to break down the film for a couple reasons, first being the experience of doing the previous week's review helped a bunch with figuring out exactly where to look and my own best way to review each play. Secondly having eight less plays of significance to review definitely helped cut down the time, maybe not by the twenty percent that the total number of plays represent, but by a good portion. Still though, this is too long a process to squeeze another game into this post so I’ll wrap up with the final segment next week reviewing what is statistically the best performance of the year and see if the numbers match the product on the field. I will say before I go that I’m finding this exercise to be pretty eye opening regarding the development of my player, and I would definitely recommend it to anyone who wants a broader understanding of their player or has quite a bit of time to burn. I’m very interested to find out how far along in the season my player’s best statistical game is and how directly it correlates to how much TPE I’ve pumped into him. Again I’ll post links to part one and part two (this post) inside the highly awaited part three (hopefully the conclusion piece as well). Thanks for sticking around with me this far and I hope to see you next time.
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