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*Steg's Week 2 Power Rankings - iStegosauruz - 04-01-2021
Introduction
I really wanted to wake up this morning to some beautiful weather and have it feel like spring is upon us. Baseball season starts today - my Braves take the field at 2:05 so catch me sneaking the video player onto my other monitor at work - and it just feels like the perfect time to really transition from winter into the spring. The world decided not to give me that luxury. I woke up today feeling exhausted and freezing to death. Its 54 outside now in the early afternoon and I’m just not a fan of this. What am a fan of are my power rankings. Welcome to the second edition of my “catch BR and Laser in the financial hierarchy of the league” power rankings. Here’s a handy link to the Preseason and Week 1 rankings if you didn’t get to check them out. I explain a lot more about my methodology there.
Quick Methodology Recap
Four inputs:
Strength of Victory
Pythagorean/Linear Wins
Point Differential
Elo
All are placed onto a relative scale - i.e. the team with the #1 mark has 100 and the team with the team with the #14 mark has 1 and then everyone is stretched onto that scale relative to how far apart their score is from those two poles. All that is then plugged into the following equation:
RelativeSoV*.25 + RelativePythLinWins*.25 + RelativePD*.25 + RelativeElo*.25
That spits out a raw number and then I put that raw number on the same relative scale as I put the inputs on. I’m still perfecting this whole thing and I’m unsure how much I like how much emphasis is put on points because those are fairly easy to influence in the sim with tempo changes, however I’m still working through the logic puzzle in my head.
This week instead of using strength of victory I’m still using strength of schedule based on the preseason casino win projections. I need a few more games to get a solid strength of victory calculation.
Week 2 Rankings
Tier 1 - Early Season Big Brain Casino Futures Ultimus Favorite(s)
1. Chicago Butchers
Week 1 Raw Score: 66.25
Week 1 Relative Score: 89
Week 2 Raw Score: 84.5
Week 2 Relative Score: 100
Gotta love the jump from the Butchers. They rose from fourth on my Week 1 rankings and the top tier 2 team to being the top team in the rankings this week. A big win against the Sailfish - an early preseason favorite - gave them good standing last week and it helped that they took care of business against the Hawks this week. The Hawks are performing above the expectation of what many people expected and this power ranking metric recognizes that which means the Butchers get a bit of a solid boost from knocking them off. The biggest boon to the Butchers right now for their score, however, is their Pythagorean/Linear win total. The metric clocks them in at 1.29 Pythagorean/Linear wins right now which is the second highest mark in the league. A Week 3 matchup at home against the Philadelphia Liberty could help secure the Butchers spot atop the ranking if they can bring home the win.
Tier 2 - Good, but not the Butchers
2. Honolulu Hahalua
Week 1 Raw Score: 70
Week 1 Relative Score: 96
Week 2 Raw Score: 76.25
Week 2 Relative Score: 88
Honolulu is off to a strong start to the year. A Week 1 win against the Outlaws - a huge preseason favorite - helped them get slotted at #2 in last week’s rankings. They’re still in that spot this week, although their metrics have dropped slightly. New Orleans was not projected to be an incredibly strong team by preseason casino metrics which means that although a win is big for the Hahalua its not as big as a win would’ve been against a big title contender. All you can ask of a team is that they beat who is on the field in front them, however, so the Hahalua are still in a great spot. They’ve got great metrics across the board - their scaled strength of schedule, pythagorean/linear wins, and point differential are all within 1 point of each other. This is a team that looks like a legit title contender this season. They can continue their hunt for the playoffs with a win at home against the Sabercats in Week 3.
Tier 3 - Fine teams, but not the Hahalua or Butchers
3. Berlin Fire Salamanders
Week 1 Raw Score: 48.5
Week 1 Relative Score: 56
Week 2 Raw Score: 69.25
Week 2 Relative Score: 77
Berlin had one of the biggest rises of any team this week. They jumped from #9 on the Week 1 rankings to #3 this week. A big win at home against the Wraiths helped propel their surge, with the score pushing them to the top spot in pythagorean/linear wins. That gives them a huge boost going forward. A matchup at home against the New York Silverbacks - another darling of the rankings early in the season - in Week 3 might give them a chance to overtake the Hahalua on these rankings.
4. New York Silverbacks
Week 1 Raw Score: 62.5
Week 1 Relative Score: 82
Week 2 Raw Score: 68.75
Week 2 Relative Score: 76
New York saw their raw score rise while their relative score fall, a testament to how far above the pack some of the teams at the top are. The Silverbacks are still a solid team, however. A big overtime win on the road against the Sabercats in Week 2 keeps them squarely in the playoff hunt early in the season. Similar to the Hahalua they have great metrics across the board - a tough schedule based on preseason casino metrics, a strong pythagorean win total, and a strong point differential total now. Their elo is on the rise after starting so low in the preseason. If this team can pull a win out on the road again the Fire Salamanders in Week 3 they stand a real chance of being much higher on this list next week.
5. San Jose Sabercats
Week 1 Raw Score: 66
Week 1 Relative Score: 88
Week 2 Raw Score: 67.75
Week 2 Relative Score: 75
San Jose, like New York, saw their raw score rise while their relative score fall. Its still early in the season but the top part of these rankings are really pulling away from the pack. They rise even after a loss because it was a close overtime loss to another good team in the early part of the season - the aforementioned Silverbacks - and because they have a really tough strength of schedule based on preseason casino metrics. A Week 3 matchup on the road against the Hahalua will prove to be a huge determinant for this team’s ranking going forward. A win will vault them up the board - showing that even though they have one of the toughest schedules they can hang with any team.
6. Yellowknife Wraiths
Week 1 Raw Score: 72.5
Week 1 Relative Score: 100
Week 2 Raw Score: 65
Week 2 Relative Score: 71
This is a bit of a fall back to earth for the Wraiths. After a huge win against the Yeti in Week 1 - and I mean seriously huge, 47-10 - they’re knocked down the board a bit after a loss to the Fire Salamanders in Week 2. A 21 point loss hurts them because it brings their point differential more in line with the rest of the league. They also take a bit of a beating - aiding in the 5 spot drop this week - by having a weaker strength of schedule mark than most teams in the league. Righting the ship at home against the Sailfish in Week 3 will solidify them firmly in the playoff hunt and could potentially push them up the board a bit.
7. New Orleans Second Line
Week 1 Raw Score: 68.75
Week 1 Relative Score: 92
Week 2 Raw Score: 64.75
Week 2 Relative Score: 70
This is a sizable fall for the Second Line as they revert a bit towards their mean. They slotted in at #3 overall in the Week 1 rankings after a close loss to the San Jose Sabercats. That ranking was aided by a high elo ranking early in the season that will take a bit to normalize to where they are now. Their still given a bit of a boost currently by their tough strength of schedule - the second toughest in the league - which the metric is taking into account for why they’re 0-2 thus far. A win on the road against the Copperheads in Week 3 is necessary to prevent an even further slip.
Tier 4 - Early Season Rough Patch
8. Arizona Outlaws
Week 1 Raw Score: 48.75
Week 1 Relative Score: 56
Week 2 Raw Score: 58.25
Week 2 Relative Score: 60
The Outlaws remain in the same spot - #8 - as they did last week and improve on both metrics. An early Ultimus favorite, Arizona has struggled a bit to start the year and find themselves at 0-2 currently. I’m a bit surprised that they rose in both metrics this week after losing to the Copperheads in Week 2. That isn’t a knock on the Copperheads - I put big money on their Ultimus Future bet because I think they’re a good team - but their early season projection weren’t great and so it feels wonky that a loss to a team that wasn’t highly regarded early season still sees the team rise a bit. After some digging it looks like the discrepancy comes from a gap between some of their metrics. The Outlaws strength of schedule is pretty weak all things being considered. Their pythagorean/linear wins and point differentials, however, are great - right up there with a team like Honolulu’s. Those two metrics combine with a high preseason elo mark that will take a bit to degrade to keep them above where some might think they should be in the rankings after starting 0-2. A Week 3 matchup on the road against the Otters will be crucial to stopping the slow degradation of those inputs that are keeping them in the middle of the pack.
9. Philadelphia Liberty
Week 1 Raw Score: 52.75
Week 1 Relative Score: 64
Week 2 Raw Score: 52
Week 2 Relative Score: 51
This is a bit of a drop for the Liberty - from #7 last week to #9 this week. Their metrics stayed the same for the most part which means that they mostly maintained an equal performance to Week 1 in Week 2. Both losses were fairly close, which coupled with a high preseason strength of schedule metric keeps them afloat in the same area of the rankings. They do risk a bigger drop after Week 3 if they can’t bring home a win on the road against the Butchers.
10. Sarasota Sailfish
Week 1 Raw Score: 44.5
Week 1 Relative Score: 48.5
Week 2 Raw Score: 51.75
Week 2 Relative Score: 50
The good for the Sailfish is that both metrics rose from Week 1 to Week 2. The bad is that they’re still being propped up by a strong preseason elo ranking that is taking time to degrade. This is a mixed bag for them, however. The elo ranking is supposed to help teams maintain some semblance of a good ranking if they happen to suffer a bad upset, however it can also produce a mirage and make teams look better than they actually are early in the season. A Week 1 loss to the Butchers doesn’t look too bad since the Butchers look like a great team, however a 3 point win against a struggling Yeti team also doesn’t give them much of a boost. Week 3 will be huge for the Sailfish as they travel to Yellowknife to take on the Wraiths. Both of these teams have a mixed bag of metrics in the early season and a win would do wonders for figuring out how strong the Sailfish are this season.
11. Orange County Otters
Week 1 Raw Score: 38.5
Week 1 Relative Score: 37
Week 2 Raw Score: 50.5
Week 2 Relative Score: 49
A win in Week 2 was huge for the Otters and helps correct for their struggles last season starting them off with a less than desirable preseason elo ranking. They have solid metrics across the board - all within a few points of each other, similar to the Hahalua. Continuing to win or produce close games will be key. They have a fairly below average strength of schedule so keeping games close and winning the ones they need to win will continue to fuel a rise up the board. A Week 3 matchup at home against the Outlaws gives them a chance to get a win against a team still regarded highly by the rankings and get a solid boost.
12. Austin Copperheads
Week 1 Raw Score: 44.5
Week 1 Relative Score: 48.5
Week 2 Raw Score: 44.25
Week 2 Relative Score: 39
Austin is in a similar position to the Otters. After underperforming last season they came into the year with a very low preseason elo ranking. That is going to take some time to correct, so a rise up the rankings will be slow for the Copperheads in most situations. Starting the season 2-0 is great for getting a jumpstart on that rise, however they’re bogged down by a close game against the Hawks in Week 1. That has led to both their pythagorean/linear win and their point differential inputs being a bit low. Those metrics could see a big boost as they finally get a home game in Week 3 and can hopefully get some of that home field advantage benefit against the Second Line in Week 3.
13. Baltimore Hawks
Week 1 Raw Score: 47
Week 1 Relative Score: 53
Week 2 Raw Score: 37.75
Week 2 Relative Score: 29
The Hawks fell a little down to earth in the rankings this week after a close game against the Copperheads in Week 1 saw them slot in at #10 overall. They have the toughest preseason strength of schedule - in part because they don’t get to play themselves (they had the lowest projected win total, not trying to bash Baltimore). If they can keep games close and sneak some wins they’ll continue to improve their elo from where it started which will be a huge factor in staying close to the pack in the rankings. They could cause some chaos if they can win on the road against the Yeti in Week 3.
14. Colorado Yeti
Week 1 Raw Score: 19
Week 1 Relative Score: 1
Week 2 Raw Score: 19
Week 2 Relative Score: 1
The Yeti keep the exact same metrics in Week 2 as they had in Week 1. Although losing hurt they had a tough matchup on the road against the Sailfish and kept it close which is a huge help to their metrics. They’re probably artificially quite low in these rankings right now after the 37 point loss on the road to the Wraiths in Week 1. A win at home in Week 3 against the Baltimore Hawks will do a lot to right the ship if they can normalize their point differential a bit - which is factoring in negatively to elo, pythagorean/linear wins, and their actual point differential inputs.
RE: Steg's Week 2 Power Rankings - zaynzk - 04-01-2021
haha yeti stinky
RE: Steg's Week 2 Power Rankings - excelsior - 04-01-2021
The team I picked to be the regular season champions are worse than us apparently.
RE: Steg's Week 2 Power Rankings - iStegosauruz - 04-01-2021
(04-01-2021, 04:52 PM)excelsior Wrote: The team I picked to be the regular season champions are worse than us apparently.
Yeah so I feel really rough for the Yeti. Its one of those things where its so early in the season huge outliers will kill the metrics. The 37 points loss really hurts them as a result. Over the course of the season that should normalize but I think it'll also be interesting to see how this charts over the course of a year - who rises, who falls, etc - and also each one of these is 2.5k words and I like money.