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+---- Thread: *S22 draft class: entering regression (/showthread.php?tid=31263)
*S22 draft class: entering regression - Troen - 04-03-2021
So it's currently season 28, the last season that the giant S22 draft class will be playing prior to their first season of regression. Given the impact that the class has had on the league, what kind of timeline can we expect to see retirements and recreations happening? Read more to see my wild speculation careful investigation of the future.
Current breakdown
The TPE tracker has 260 S22 players (plus S25 player Brick Van Sanzo if you search for "S22" because of the user's name snazzlepuss22).
Basically zero percent chance to return:
81 (31.2% of the total class) have 50 TPE and I believe they would have been autoretired under the new rules.
55 (21.2% of the class / 30.7% of the remaining 179 players) have no updates since March 7th 2020, which for those who don't remember offhand is the first update processing day after the reddit recruitment post. These players range from 52 up to 87 TPE.
20 (7.7% of the class / 16.1% of the remaining 124 players) have not updated since April 17th 2020 (actual update day would be the 18th), which is the date of the ISFL draft of the S22 class. They have a more impressive TPE range of 59-157, including a few players who were decently earning TPE during their time in the DSFL.
Collectively, that 156 players conveniently works out to exactly 60% of the draft class. Players in these categories collectively never updated after getting drafted to the ISFL so I can confidently say that they didn't get into the league at a level where I'd expect them to return. Also, more concretely, every player in this group will be autoretired if they don't come back and earn a bit more. For those who haven't memorized the ISFL rulebook, players under 150 TPE after regression are autoretired, meaning that the S22 players will need 188 TPE to end up at 150 TPE after losing their first 20% of TPE (which, again for people not looking at the table, is the amount lost in the first year of regression).
Low chance to return:
8 (3.1% of the class / 7.7% of the remaining 104 players) are under the 188 threshold required to not auto retire after regression. As a possibly unsurprising note, all players so far are free agents, meaning that I would expect they are all not going to change anything for any teams.
18 (6.9% of the class / 18.8% of the remaining 96 players) are current free agents. TPE on these players range from 198-706 - the top end is high enough that I could see some of the players in this group getting signed as IA FAs, especially if a team ends up being cash-short. For activity and return likelihood, though, none have updated in 2021. One specific note, though - I saw NamelessNate (player of Tom Sofa) on discord recently, though it sounded like he was planning on recreating. So, I would count him specifically as not having a low chance to return, but I think the general point for this category of people holds.
8 (3.1% of the class / 10.2% of the remaining 78 players) have neither updated nor been seen on the site in 2021. The group, with its TPE range of 310-949, includes a number of relevant players, including Hawks QB Luke Skywalker, Wraiths RB Acura Skyline, and Austin's own DE Slinky Claxton. So, while I expect these players to have a low chance of returning to activity, I expect to see at least some of them playing for another year or two.
More likely to return:
So, looking at the 190 players of the class so far, I'd expect to few fewer than 10 recreate in the next 2 seasons. Most I fully expect are completely uninvolved with the league any more, so I don't think that should seem surprising to anyone looking at it. The more interesting group of more active players is in many ways much more interesting when it comes to seeing about league power balance. Since players from this point on include a lot of active members, I fully expect more than half of the group to end up recreating. So, instead of trying to look for signs that someone might be thinking otherwise based on the TPE tracker, I'm going to instead predict some rough outlines on retirement patterns per year.
Retirement timing ends up being a very different decision from person to person. Some players (especially GMs) might time their retirement and recreation to align with a team's positional need or cap space while individuals might be looking at holding out as long as possible to hit season records or to try and build of a hall of fame resume. Rather than trying to read everyone's mind, I'm going to create a simpler analysis. It consists of 2 straightforward assumptions/simplifications:
1. Players will earn 150 TPE/year
2. Players will retire at the end of any season that they are under the current ISFL average for their position.
The earning rate is a good enough rule to use - some players could earn more, but anyone doing that with consistency I would think would be more likely to be trying to maximize the number of playing years and therefore break the second assumption anyway. For players that are really trying to hit just a couple more TDs/sacks/whatever for a milestone, the vast majority of the players left are high enough TPE to be relevant in the league for another season or two past what I used as my assumptions. This was a simple way to establish an objective rule and not requiring me to try and talk to 70 people, though, so it's what I'm going to be going with here.
A couple stats about the players left for consideration before going deeper:
TPE range: 393-1429
Average: 1103
Median: 1165.5
Standard deviation: 247.74
Team with the most players:
with 10Teams with the least players:
with 1Positional breakdown:
QB: 5
RB: 5
WR: 8
TE: 5
OL: 5
DT: 9
DE: 5
LB: 9
CB: 7
S: 9
K/P: 3
S28 - 70 players in the pool at season start
Perhaps surprisingly, there will be 4 players who will be under their positional average even if they earn 150 TPE from their current spot. Those 4 are Tristian Hex, RB; Nuniq Annastesia and Momona Keiki-Kāne, DT; and Spike Suzuki, LB.
Rough statistics on remaining players at the end of season 28 (note that this is a certainly high estimate since the top end players have already purchased their equipment for the season, so Frost doesn't need to be freaking out yet):
TPE range: 764-1579
Average: 1291
Median: 1325.5
Standard deviation: 198.11
Team with the most players:
with 10Teams with the least players:
with 1Positional breakdown:
QB: 5
RB: 4
WR: 8
TE: 5
OL: 5
DT: 7
DE: 5
LB: 8
CB: 7
S: 9
K/P: 3
S29 - 20% regression, 66 players in the pool at season start
It might not be surprising, but none of the remaining players drop below the average threshold after S29. If you look at the math, though, it makes sense. If a player is at 750 TPE entering their first year of regression, they'll end up at 750 TPE by the end of the next year given a 20% loss for regression which is 150 TPE, all of which will be re-earned in my assumptions here. There's probably some window in positions where someone on the low end might slip exactly into the hole after being like 795 TPE or something, but it didn't happen.
Stats for non-retired players at the end of S29:
TPE range: 761-1413 - you can see here that vs. the end of the previous season, the bottom barely goes down while the top drops a ton
Average: 1182
Median: 1210
Standard deviation: 158.49
Positional breakdown: same as last year
S30 - 25% regression, 66 players in the pool at season start
2 players drop and remain below their positional averages by the end of S30. The first is WR Susan Cash.Jr, who makes sense as a decently earning WR who went IA after a few seasons. The second, though, is QB Monterey "Monty" Jack which might seem like a surprise. However, the model I'm using puts him at 1128 TPE at the end of S30, just under the 1132 positional average for QBs. In reality, I can't imagine that Jack would actually retire in that season the vast majority of the time, but you can see how the QB position's high average really makes an impact.
Stats for non-retired players at the end of S30:
TPE range: 720-1209
Average: 1039
Median: 1057
Standard deviation: 115.21
Positional breakdown:
QB: 4
RB: 4
WR: 7
TE: 5
OL: 5
DT: 7
DE: 5
LB: 8
CB: 7
S: 9
K/P: 3
S31 - 30% regression, 64 players in the pool at season start
This is the first year with a substantial number of retirements, 17 in total. I'm not going to list all of the names, but I'll do positions: 4 QB, 3 WR, 4 DT, 1 LB, 1 CB, and 4 S. Seeing all remaining QBs eliminated at this point might be surprising, but they'll all be under 1000 TPE with my model here. All the other positions also have 800+ positional averages, with multiple of the players ending up below the average doing so by single digits. Still, the model is unfeeling and continues on.
Stats for non-retired players at the end of S31:
TPE range: 654-987
Average: 892
Median: 902
Standard deviation: 74.63
Positional breakdown:
QB: 0
RB: 4
WR: 4
TE: 5
OL: 5
DT: 3
DE: 5
LB: 7
CB: 6
S: 5
K/P: 3
S32 - 40% regression, 47 players in the pool at season start
This is the second year with a substantial number of retirements, and it included the vast majority of remaining players. 37 of the remaining 47 end up the season under their positional averages, including every player at a position with an average over 800. That's because the maximum remaining TPE is 742 - obviously too little to be over 800. For a player to remain over 800 TPE at the end of S32, they're looking at needing to earn more around 175 TPE/year - not sure how feasible that is. Retiring player counts by position are 1 RB, 4 WR, 3 TE, 1 OL, 3 DT, 5 DE, 7 LB, 6 CB, 5 S, and 2 K/P.
Stats for non-retired players at the end of S32:
TPE range: 620-742
Average: 691
Median: 703
Standard deviation: 43.28
Positional breakdown:
QB: 0
RB: 3
WR: 0
TE: 2
OL: 4
DT: 0
DE: 0
LB: 0
CB: 0
S: 0
K/P: 1
S33 - 50% regression, 10 players in the pool at season start
Unsurprisingly given the rate at which regression is speeding up, no players end up with enough TPE to get back above their positional averages by the end of the season. This might be a good time to point out, though - given the size of the class, its regression is likely to change what the positional averages are as the seasons go on and players retire. I'm using the constant values as a convenient simplification, plus players barely below the average could very plausibly be useful for some teams, but I did want to note that.
With my earning model, the highest remaining TPE ends up being around the low 500s, which would allow a few intrepid individuals to make it to S34 with 200-ish TPE for one last season.
(Aside: To play in S35, an S22 player would need 600 TPE at the end of S34. Assuming an outrageous 250 TPE earned/year that means they'd need 875 at the end of S33 (875 - 60% => 350 to start the season, then earn up to 600). That amount seems impossible to hit based on what I'm seeing here, even if someone was at 1600 now and earned 250/year for the rest of their career. So, S34 is the last possible year we'll be seeing any S22 players aside from maybe post-retirement warm bodies)
Stats for non-retired players at the end of S33: Nope, they're all dead retired.
Conclusions
I'd say it looks like S22 active starters could easily play another 3 years, maybe 4. It will be interesting to see how S22-heavy teams like the Fire Salamanders try to take advantage of the players they have while they can and then transition into a post-S22 universe. I didn't go into as much speculation on it, but assuming the retirements are spread out over a couple years should mean that the S32-34 draft classes should be seeing most of the high earning S22 players who recreate, but spread out depending on when their players retired rather than focused due to a singular recruiting event. That might also be another good point to consider for recruitment timing - maybe the league would want to try and attract people for the S30 draft class specifically to try and avoid reinforcing the S22 recreates.
RE: S22 draft class: entering regression - siddhus - 04-03-2021
:eyes: nice read
RE: S22 draft class: entering regression - Cheech65 - 04-03-2021
So you're saying I can play until S33? Noted.
RE: S22 draft class: entering regression - qWest - 04-03-2021
I'm taking the Gump route and never retiring
RE: S22 draft class: entering regression - Jimi64 - 04-03-2021
Lot of great people in that class that I've met. Makes me sort of sentimental about them hitting regression. Another question is how many can we expect to recreate? I hope most stick around. Like it was mentioned in the article, the S22 class has made a huge mark on the league.
RE: S22 draft class: entering regression - Troen - 04-03-2021
(04-03-2021, 07:05 PM)Jimi64 Wrote: Lot of great people in that class that I've met. Makes me sort of sentimental about them hitting regression. Another question is how many can we expect to recreate? I hope most stick around. Like it was mentioned in the article, the S22 class has made a huge mark on the league.
I thought about trying to look at what the trends of past classes were but it's a little hard to tell with just the TPE tracker. My rough guess is 60-70 recreate, which is basically 'most of the people who are still updating plus/minus a few more'.
RE: S22 draft class: entering regression - NamelessNate - 04-05-2021
(04-03-2021, 01:04 PM)Troen Wrote: One specific note, though - I saw NamelessNate (player of Tom Sofa) on discord recently, though it sounded like he was planning on recreating. So, I would count him specifically as not having a low chance to return, but I think the general point for this category of people holds.What is this slander?
RE: S22 draft class: entering regression - Troen - 04-05-2021
(04-05-2021, 12:05 AM)NamelessNate Wrote: What is this slander?
I assumed the "R" in your signature stands for "Recreate" and not "Remain away from the league".
I admit to maybe being wrong.
RE: S22 draft class: entering regression - NamelessNate - 04-10-2021
(04-05-2021, 01:23 AM)Troen Wrote:Oh that's a callback to "Legion retire many" hahaha. Ask an old member what it is(04-05-2021, 12:05 AM)NamelessNate Wrote: What is this slander?
I assumed the "R" in your signature stands for "Recreate" and not "Remain away from the league".
I admit to maybe being wrong.