*ISFL Season 28 (Early) Awards - Some statistics-based predictions

*ISFL Season 28 (Early) Awards - Some statistics-based predictions - Printable Version

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*ISFL Season 28 (Early) Awards - Some statistics-based predictions - Suggs - 04-29-2021

Hey everyone! I haven’t released an article in sometime because I have been working with another ISFL member on a more refined version of the Wins Above Replacement stat, and it is yet to be finished. I’ve missed doing these media pieces, so I decided to do this small one whilst the bigger project is still on the works.

The 28th ISFL regular season is almost over, yet end-of-season awards should still take as many as 2 weeks to be announced. There is always a lot of talk about these awards and I’ve seen some users discuss how advanced statistics could be used to help HO out when giving them out or even deciding who gets nominated for them. So I decided to give out my own early awards! For this, I will be using the statistic of Wins Above Replacement (which I go over on this article for defensive players. For offensive players I used a formula which I will not reveal because I am still working on it, is a bit sketchy, and will be changed in the future. Just for those that are curious, it functions on a similar way to the Defensive WAR with receiving, rushing, and passing yards, TDs, and QBR for QBs). As of the writing of this article (04/29) there is still one regular season match to be played, but I don't think it should impact it too much.

I will be working with awards for this ISFL season (sorry DSFL players) for offensive skill positions and defensive players (haven’t developed a formula yet for OL and K/P, I apologize. It will be done in the future, though). It won’t be based only in statistics, meaning a player with a lower WAR might win an award over a player with a higher one. But I will try to follow a numbers-based logic as much as possible. This means I will go over these following awards:

• Safety of the Year (SOY) (lol)
• Cornerback of the Year (CBOY)
• Linebacker of the Year (LBOY)
• Defensive Tackle of the Year (DTOY)
• Defensive End of the Year (DEOY)
• Tight End of the Year (TEOY)
• Wide Receiver of the Year (WROY)
• Running Back of the Year (RBOY)
• Quarterback of the Year (QBOY)
• Offensive Rookie of the Year (OROY)
• Defensive Rookie of the Year (DROY)
• Offensive Player of the Year (OPOY)
• Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY)
• Most Valuable Player (MVP)

And here are the awards:

Safety of the Year – Mac Griddle (New York Silverbacks)

I had a tough time deciding this one, but I just couldn’t stay away from Griddle. A big reason why New York improved so much this year was their defense and how they stepped up in big moments. Strong Safeties are not favored by the sim and are stuck in the middle, having to do both deep coverage and blitzing/working against the run game. And Griddle managed this balance better than anyone. When you have such dominant players on your defense and on other positions like Mac has, it’s tough to stand out. But he did anyway.
Some of this player’s stats were:
• 74 tackles (4th most among Safeties)
• 1 Forced Fumble
• 6 Sacks (Most among Safeties)
• 2 Interceptions
• 10 Pass Deflections (T-8th among Safeties)
• 0.119 WAR (20th most among defensive players)
Nominees: Mac Griddle (NYS), Philip Stein (SJS), Matt Cross (PHI), Bob Roberts (NYS)

Cornerback of the Year – Rich Triplet (Arizona Outlaws)

This one wasn’t as tough. Respect to the other nominees, all of which had amazing seasons, but Rich was on another level. 6 Interceptions and 42 Pass Deflections (a single-season ISFL record) were just too much. Triplet had a great season in S27 in San Jose, but this was his true breakout season.
Some of this player’s stats were:
• 96 Tackles (T-4th among CBs)
• 6 INTs (2nd most among CBs)
• 42 Pass Deflections (Single Season ISFL record)
• 0.2 WAR (Most among defensive players)
Nominees: Rich Triplet (AZ), Matt Krause (BER), Lesean Paris Crooks (AUS), Harrison Andrews (SAR)

Linebacker of the Year – Jack Banks (NYS)

I already lined out my admiration for Jack Banks on my previous post, in which I lined up the Top 5 defensive players by WAR in Season 27. But this season surely was something else. His stats are all high all across the board and reverberated on New York’s rise this year. Banks showed that Linebackers are not only asked to do everything, but are also able to do everything.
Some of this player’s stats were:
• 111 Tackles (2nd most in S28)
• 4 TFLs (4th most among LBs)
• 19 Sacks (Most among all players, T-7th most in a single season)
• 0.177 WAR (2nd most among defensive players)
Nominees: Jack Banks (NYS), Derred de Ville (SAR), Big Slammu (YKW), Dex Kennedy (AUS)

Defensive Tackle of the Year – Daymond Brooks (CHI)

Sorry Big Edd, this one couldn’t have gone differently. Brooks is at least Top 2 in any stat for Defensive Tackles, being top of most of them. Despite Chicago’s underwhelming (and at time, very unlucky) season, Brooks was something to be proud of. Tackles, TFLs, Sacks, he has everything.
Some of this player’s stats were:
• 69 Tackles (2nd most among DTs)
• 5 TFLs (Tied most among DTs)
• 11 Sacks (Most among DTs)
• 0.143 WAR (7th most among defensive players)
Nominees: Daymond Brooks (CHI), LeBong Simwell (NOLA), Magnus RIkiya (COL), Big Edd (HON)

Defensive End of the Year – Rapid Eagle (OCO)

A tough one, but Eagle edges out this one. Another dominant player that is on the top of every single stat for his position. Orange County seemed to have a tough season, but Rapid Eagle was one of the players who showed all that they are better than their record shows.
Some of this player’s stats were:
• 49 Tackles (2nd most among DEs)
• 11 TFLs (Most in the league)
• 3 FF (Most among DEs)
• 8 Sacks (T-5th most among DEs)
• 0.117 WAR (18th most among defensive players)
Nominees: Rapid Eagle (OCO), Demon Jaxson (SAR), Tex Wrecks (PHI), James Cho (YKW)

Congratulations to all winners. Now, onto offensive awards!

Tight End of the Year – Heath Evans (OCO)

Another Orange County player with an award, Evans had a great season. I would argue that different from other nominees, points were tough to come by in Orange County. Despite that, Evans had a great season that deserves to be crowned with an award.
Some of this player’s stats were:
• 945 receiving yards (2nd most among TEs)
• 4 TDs
• 10.6 yards per reception (One of 4 TEs this season to have double digit yards per reception)
Nominees: Heath Evans (OCO), James Angler (SAR), Clark Boyd (BER), James Lewandowski (SJS)

Wide Receiver of the Year – William Lim (COL)

If some Colorado games had gone the right way, Lim could have had a 2000 yard season. As of the writing of this article, Lim has the 3rd most reception yards in a single season of all time. With a game to spare. He’s also one of the 6 players (as of W15) to have double digit receiving TDs and has double the AV of his position average. An amazing player who deserves to be in here.
Some of this player’s stats were:
• 1764 receiving yards (3rd most all time)
• 11 receiving TDs (T-4th most in the league)
• 1.636 WAR (3nd most in the league)
Nominees: William Lim (COL), Ed Barker (NOLA), Despacito Jr. (SAR), Leeroy Jenkins (COL)

Running Back of the Year – Tatsu Nakamura (AZ)

According to my Wins Above Replacement last year, Tatsu Nakamura was the Most Valuable Player of Season 27. While I wouldn’t make the same case for this year, his production is still off the charts. By far the best Running Back of the league, another elite season from Nakamura.
Some of this player’s stats were:
• 1468 rushing yards (most in the league)
• 21 rushing TDs (most in the league)
• 1.681 WAR (2nd most in the league)
• 373 receiving yards
Nominees: Tatsu Nakamura (AZ), Raphtalia Chan (SAR), Captain Rogers (NYS), Joseph Petrongolo (BER)

Quarterback of the Year – Matthias Caliban (COL)

When you break records, I suppose you deserve to win some awards. I saving my speech on Caliban’s season for a later award. So for now congrats, I guess.
Nominees: Matthias Caliban (COL), Nick Kaepercolin (BER), Suleiman Ramza (OCO), George O’Donnell (CHI)

Offensive Rookie of the Year – Madison Hayes (RB from CHI)

This one is a very tough one, as rookies always have a tough time in the ISFL. And some of the other nominees were very promising, but I’m going for Hayes here. I’ve been arguing for some time that stats suggest that running the ball in this league is better than passing the ball and, as a result, RBs are very valuable and can make a franchise sink or fly. Despite a complicated and overall disappointing Chicago season, Hayes was a bright light. He managed over 1000 yards when combining his receiving and rushing production, showing great promise to be a double threat.
Some of this player’s stats were:
• 638 rushing yards (13th most in the league, most among rookies)
• 429 receiving yards (most among rookie RBs)
• 1067 total yards (most among rookies)
Nominees: Madison Hayes (RB from CHI), Chunt The Badger (WR from BAL), Luke Quick (WR from BAL), Busch Goose (RB from BAL)

Defensive Rookie of the Year – Bean Beanman (DE from OCO)

OCO had one of the best defenses this season, despite their bad results. Beanman was important to make that happen. Again, a tough choice, but I’m confident on Beanman. With 4 TFLs and double digit sacks (10!) this player showed strength in both the ground and passing game. Great season.
Some of this player’s stats were:
• 29 tackles
• 4 TFLs (most among rookies)
• 10 sacks (most among rookies)
Nominees: Bean Beanman (DE from OCO), Evan Jones (S from CHI), Marlon Brando (DE from BER), Kevin Morrison (LB from NOLA)

Offensive Player of the Year - Matthias Caliban (QB from COL)

You’d imagine I would have a big speech for the Offensive Player of the Year. And I do. Just not now.
Nominees: Matthias Caliban (QB from COL), William Lim (WR from BER), Tatsu Nakamura (RB from AZ), Ed Barker (WR from NOLA)

Defensive Player of the Year – Jack Banks (LB from NYS)

As I said when he won LBOY, I have a lot of respect for Banks’ game. As a fellow defensive player, what he does is out of this world. Linebackers have a big expectation in this league, and he is one of the reasons for it. Almost 20 sacks has to give you an awards. And maybe even two. Well, that’s what happened.
Some of this player’s stats were:
• 111 Tackles (2nd most in S28)
• 4 TFLs (4th most among LBs)
• 19 Sacks (Most among all players, T-7th most in a single season)
• 0.177 WAR (2nd most among defensive players)
Nominees: Jack Banks (LB from NYS), Rich Triplet (CB from AZ), Matt Krause (BER), Daymond Brooks (DT from CHI)

Your Season 28 Most Valuable Player of the Year is

Matthias Caliban, Quarterback from the Colorado Yeti

Out of all 28 seasons of the ISFL, few players ever broke the 5000 passing yards mark. Out of those few, only Ben Slothlesberger and Dexter Banks III have managed to come close to the Top 4 single-season record (all set by OCO QB Mike Boss in the first 8 seasons of the ISFL) over the past 20 seasons (with both being the only QBs in the last 20 seasons to get into the Top 10). Then Matthias Caliban broke into Mike Boss’ top 4 with one game to spare.
As of this article, Caliban would still be able to break the passing yards record if he maintains his yards/game average (which I hope he does!) and have more than 30 TDs in a season, something few QBs are able to accomplish every year. It is sad that the Yeti are out of playoff contention and are unable to crown this historic season with an Ultimus win, but I think Matthias will happily take QBOY, OPOY, MVP, and his name in the record books as consolation prizes. Some would argue that attempting so many passes makes it easier for Caliban. I disagree. All teams came into their games against Colorado knowing Caliban was leading their offense. And they still didn’t manage to stop him. Different from the other awards presented here, that are open to discussion, this one is not open to discussion.

Some of the MVP’s stats:
• 5298 passing yards (4th most all time)
• 33 passing TDs (most among the league)
• 14 INTs (7th least among QBs, 2nd least among Top 5 QBs)
• 94.8 QBR (6th most among QBs)
• 1.909 WAR (Most among all players)

Thank you for reading this! I think awards always bring very interesting discussions about the most elite athletes in every position in the game, so be sure to leave your opinions below! Even if you think I butchered some of these selections.

RE: ISFL Season 28 (Early) Awards - Some statistics-based predictions - Big Edd - 04-29-2021

ill take the nomination

RE: ISFL Season 28 (Early) Awards - Some statistics-based predictions - SchwarzNarr - 04-30-2021

I loooove it, but as a note, in our league you can't win both offensive player of the year and MVP, it's one or the other.

Also, I gotta say Dex Kennedy might be a sleeper for LBOTY/DPOTY - the guy has four defensive touchdowns this season which ties the current season record and puts him 40% of the way there to breaking the career record. His sacks might not quite be up to part, but four touchdowns and a safety are hard to argue against.

RE: ISFL Season 28 (Early) Awards - Some statistics-based predictions - ReverendOReily - 04-30-2021

Zayn losing safety of the year to his own teammate? That's gonna be a like and a subscription from me, chief

RE: ISFL Season 28 (Early) Awards - Some statistics-based predictions - ZootTX - 04-30-2021

I don't even know why we have TEs since we all just treat them like receivers. Who cares about pancakes.

RE: ISFL Season 28 (Early) Awards - Some statistics-based predictions - TheRocheLimit - 04-30-2021

This. I like this.

RE: ISFL Season 28 (Early) Awards - Some statistics-based predictions - The_Kidd - 04-30-2021

Lead CBs in tackles(6th overall), blocked a punt, only allowed one TD over 35 yds(damn you AZ) --- nomination is all I hoped for

RE: ISFL Season 28 (Early) Awards - Some statistics-based predictions - Bayley - 04-30-2021

@ForSucksFake
@sve7en

See, I'm not just saying it for nothing

RE: *ISFL Season 28 (Early) Awards - Some statistics-based predictions - Mooty99 - 05-01-2021

Kennedy for me should be LBotY and DPotY.
4 Defensive TDs (most of any defender, and the next nearest LB has 1) - season record
6 forced fumbles (3rd of any defender)
8 TFL (joint 3rd of any defender and 2nd of any LB)
3 interceptions (joint most of any safety)
Then all other stats that aren't top but are very good:
1 safety (highest is 2)
13 sacks (highest is 20)
13 PDs (highest LB got 20)
99 tackles (highest was 123)

Kennedy did everything, LBs are more than just a pass rusher and he showed it!

RE: *ISFL Season 28 (Early) Awards - Some statistics-based predictions - Kotasa - 05-02-2021

It was actually 46 PDs!
Fun fact about my season
I also only allowed 57% completions against me which is the lowest of these noms
I appreciate these words but defensive touchdowns always seem to reign supreme in awards season, hope to win it though!