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*Regression : What impact THEFT could have on all the teams. - Arvot - 05-13-2021 I am going to have a look into how the team’s rosters are looking for now and the future. I will consider what players are starting to hit regression and if that team has a replacement waiting in the DSFL. This will give us an idea of what team’s might take in the upcoming ISFL draft as well as what position some teams are stacked at and we can maybe predict some trades. First off, the Arizona Outlaws They are an ageing team with eight of their players regressing this season. They won their division last year and made it to the conference game, so they will probably be hoping to go one better next season before regression starts to really hit them hard. The two main areas of immediate concern for the Outlaws will be at linebacker with Galf Wilf and cornerback with Desmond Scarlett. Both these players are going into their 9th season which comes with a 30% loss in TPE. Arizona does not currently have any DSFL players at these positions so I would imagine they will be focusing their draft on that, or possible looking to make some trades. The next two positions of concern will be on the defensive line where DT Pete “Plop” Miller is entering their 8th season taking a 25% hit. DE Logan Noble also went into their 8th season, but they have been released by the Outlaws. They have some young guns waiting in the wings with the London Royals duo Glenn Smart (DE) and Fergus Callaghan (DT). Glenn Smart will be an able replacement for Noble Jr. as they had an 11-sack season in the DSFL last year, not to mention winning the Ultimini. Fergus Callaghan could be of use to the Outlaws too with Miller starting to decline. Callaghan could be paired with DT Chuck Roth in the future, or possibly called up this year if they wanted to switch to a 4-3 defense.  That may make sense as one of their pass-rushing linebackers Wilf is getting hit hard by regression. They also have 4 season 22 players who will be hit with a 20% loss in TPE this upcoming season. Star running back Nakamura will feel the TPE pinch, but they have the extra to spare so I am sure will still be breaking records for another season or two. Thomas Passman is another of their star offensive players to face a 20% TPE loss but again they have so much that they should still be one of the leagues best for this season at least. I would expect Arizona to look at finding a few hidden gem offensive players in this draft as they do not have any replacements waiting for when age finally catches up to their star players. Offensive Breakout Player of the Year Calvin Golladay is also due to lose 20% TPE. They have a lot of O-line talent on the team that still has a few regression free season left in them but none of them is super high earners. They will start to feel the loss of Golladay over the next few years, but I do not feel like this is a major priority right now. You can never have too many o-line though. The last player-facing regression was their kicker J.J. “Jay” Jay-Jamison but they have now retired leaving an open camp battle between Kade York and Rainbow Dash. It is possible one of them will do a position switch or maybe they will be part of a trade, but something has to give, and it will be interesting to see what happens here. Kade York has the higher TPE but also has an extra season of earning on Rainbow Dash. The Arizona Outlaws have a very strong team with a couple of superstars, but they will need to start retooling that defense soon, and the offense in the near future. Next up is the Austin Copperheads. They are quite a young team with only six players starting regression this year. This squad should be pretty much the same for the next season or so, but fresh blood is always needed. Wide receiver Eddie Jeeta is potentially IA and will be a loss for them. They do have Bayley Cowabunga in the DSFL though who has a nice amount of TPE, currently with 390. I would expect Cowabunga will be called up to fill the Jeeta void. If Jeeta is still playing they are only losing 20% TPE so should still be a really solid contributor. Copperheads’ tight end Friedrich Vequain is also feeling the sting of regression. Like the rest of his regressing teammates, he is losing 20% so should still be fine. They have no DSFL tight end so I think that could possibly be an area they target during the draft. If they can get one this season it would dovetail nicely with Vequain finally being overwhelmed by regression as their DSFL will have developed to the point of being playable. Both DE’s are hitting regression this year losing 20% each. Egghands is one of the top earners so they will be good for a few more seasons yet but Claxton may feel the squeeze a little sooner. The Copperheads have two DT in the DSFL, the most promising of which is O’Leary, but they also have two pretty young starting DT in Isaac and Fitinyomouf. We may see some position switches in this area, or possibly some players getting traded away to fill other needs. Line-backer Dex Kennedy will be losing 20% of their TPE but once again they are a big earner and will not be affected too much by it. The rest of the linebacker corps will be facing regression over the next few years so it wouldn’t hurt for the Copperheads to invest in some young linebackers this draft, but it is not a priority. Finally, safety Hamish McAndrew will start regression this season losing 20%. Chatack’rius Smith IV is currently earning nicely in the DSFL and should be an able replacement for McAndrews. I feel that they might overlap a little as McAndrew will still be viable when Smith IV will be looking to be called up. It could provide some headaches for the Austin HO. Austin also has CB Siege Cameron in the DSFL, but their CB is pretty stacked. Tow of them will start regression next season but they will still be well higher TPE than Cameron. We could maybe see some movement there, possibly a trade or maybe a position switch for someone. They don’t have any glaring needs though so I feel like a trade would make more sense. Lastly, they have superstar kicker Gluteus Maximus who has already out-earned starting kicker Leo Bloomfield. I would expect Bloomfield to lose their spot on the roster for this upcoming season. The Copperheads are in a good position with a relatively young team. In a season or two, they will really start to feel that regression hit, especially as 6 of their starters are all from the same draft class. Baltimore Hawks The Baltimore Hawks are in the midst of a rebuild and so most of their players are pretty young. Their inactive QB Luke Skywalker is due for 20% regression this year and I would imagine they would be targeting QB with one of their first-round picks. Possibly trading for one of Berlin’s eight million DSFL QB’s or maybe taking Gimmy Jarropolo Jr. or Kazimir Oles Jr. from this year’s draft class. The only other players facing regression are DT Nuniq Annastesia who is S22 so will have 20% regression and CB Ben Stackinpaper facing the same. The Hawks have both their replacements lined up with DT Beefcake Johnson and CB Kacper Puntky. Puntky could be called up this season as the Hawks only have two CB’s on their roster. The other DSFL player for the Hawks is Edge rusher Gritt Gurdur. They will find it difficult to carve out a role whilst Slayer and Waialiki are still there, but if they can start earning well they could push their way to a position somewhere on that team possibly with a position switch. Berlin Fire Salamanders The Berlin Fire Salamanders are built to win now but are also a few years off from feeling that regression hit hard. The worrying thing for me is ten of their players are from the same draft class, they will all peak at the same time which is awesome, but then they will all fall off a cliff at the same time. Those 10 from the S22 draft class all face 20% loss this season but most of them are over 1000 TPE so the team will not be hurt too bad. I expect them to be s real force next year as their S23 guys also hit their peak. Nick Kaepercolin is one of those S22 players, but Berlin sorted their future at QB by stockpiling them in the S28 draft taking not one, not two but three quarterbacks. As of now Dexter Zaylen and Troy Abed are out in front, both getting over 400 TPE in their short careers. Raske has fallen behind a little and could be of interest to teams with a slightly younger starting QB looking for a potential starter a few seasons away. They also have Cheese Farley at OL in the DSFL which will come in handy as two of their OL are from that S22 draft class. They only have 3 OL so Farley could get called up this season though they have just hit the 250 cap and are from S27 so they are not a huge earner. If they max earn this off-season they could be up around 300 and could develop throughout the season. Logan Anderson is a DE that will probably be more for the future as the Salamanders have VonPebbles and Defensive Rookie of the Year Marlon Brando. Anderson will be a solid replacement for VonPebbles in a few seasons though. Lastly, Henry Tingzpahcbol is a cornerback who can take over from top CB Matt Krause in a few seasons when the regression destroys this Berlin team. They have replacements ready for most positions but are a bit thin on the D-line so I would expect them to target that in the draft. They will also probably be looking to find a long-term replacement for Clark Boyd as well, could Chevvy Bronko be on their way to Berlin? The Chicago Butchers are in trouble. They have multiple key players losing 25% this year, plus some others losing 20%. Quarterback George O’Donnell is one of those losing 25% as this could be his last or second last season as a Butcher. With no replacement waiting in the wings the Butchers will need to make a move this offseason. Maybe they can land one in the draft, or possibly they can trade for one of Berlin’s QBs. Baby Yoda is also on the way out as they face 25% this year. Madison Hayes is capable to take over, but they will need to invest in some depth for the future having no Rb in the DSFL currently. Star Tight End Tree Gelbman is also facing 25% regression with backup Daniel George looking at a 20% reduction in their TPE. Tight End is another need for the Butchers as they try to navigate this ageing team. Both their top CB’s are regressing with Shields losing 20% whilst Firestorm Fjord loses 25%. Their top O-line player Mo “Mamba” Magic is also getting hit with 20% but The O-line is pretty solid right now so shouldn’t be a top priority to be dealt with this season. The only two DSFL players they have currently are Dexter Hall a line-backer and Tim Soulja the safety. Their linebacker corps is a strong group and the oldest is from S24 so they still have some gas left in the tank. I could see a trade away for one of these line-backers in the future as there is going to be so many holes in other areas of the team. Dexter Hall has been earning nicely as they now have 378 TPE so could be a trade target for a rebuilding team, or maybe Chicago will like to trade away one of their vets and use Hall to fill the gap. Tim Soulja has been earning like a beast and currently has 409 TPE which is the highest safety of the class. Chicago is fine at Safety as Blackfyre and Jones still have some years until regression hits though they have not been earning massive amounts. They have a decision to make here as well. I could see them trading away Blackfyre or Jones to a safety needy team and bringing in Soulja as part of a rebuild. The Butchers need a good offseason or by season 30 they will be in real trouble. Colorado Yeti The Colorado Yeti are in a pretty good spot currently. Two of their players face 25% regression this season, o-line Dorfus Jimbo and DE Immanuel Blackstone. Jimbo is retiring so this could hurt them leaving the Yeti with only one O-line man. I feel like this is an area they will need to target as they have top running back Richard Gilbert as well as rising star Manhattan Project coming through. Star receiver William Lim begins their regression journey this season losing 20% as does their partner in crime Leeroy Jenkins. The Yeti could switch their focus to the run game but need to invest a bit more in their o-line to really utilise the talent they have left. Gilbert will take a 20% loss this season too, so it feels like the time is now for the Yeti to make a push whilst they have star offensive players just starting to decline. Their defense is really healthy, and they have four good safeties currently. I feel like a safety could be used in a  trade for some young offensive weapons that could eventually replace their star receivers. Caliban just won the top QB award last year so get him and the running backs a solid o-line and the Yeti could make a push for the Ultimus. Honolulu Hahalua The Honolulu Hahalua is going through some huge changes this year. Quarterback Chika Fujiwara is retiring after an illustrious career. They have planned for this by drafting Joilet Christ Jr. in S27 and Raeni Clarke in S28. Joilet Christ looks like they will be stepping up as the QB1 which leaves Raeni Clarke in a position to be traded or possibly position switch. They need some wide receiver help as stalwart Jen Podolak is also retiring this year. That leaves them with one WR on the roster. Eleven Kendrick-Watts will no doubt come up to the ISFL this year as they have 628 TPE, and will be a future superstar, could we possibly see Clarke switch to WR and create a terrifying duo? DT Big Edd is beginning to see regression with a 20% hit this year. Professor Godfrey Gravity is a good replacement having already got 329 TPE from the S28 class. Sat CB Jim Waters also faces the start of regression and this is an area Honolulu might look to invest in for the future. They have a nice group of CB, of varying age, but a young start CB who could come in two or three seasons from now would help with the transition from Waters. The only CB currently in the DSFL is Logan Steele who only has 74 TPE and is probably not a long-term solution. Venus Powers is looking at a 30% regression this year and you would have to think this will probably be their last. The Outlaws currently have two young kickers so we could maybe see some movement there. New Orleans Second Line Now onto New Orleans Second Line. I will try not to be biased in my appraisal of my own team. The biggest loss will be star safety Mason Blaylock who is losing 40% of their TPE this year. Luckily, Shuffleboard had a great rookie year and so NOLA should be sorted at Safety for the next few years pairing up with my good self. The other big regression issue is Ed Barker the star wide Receiver losing 25%. They will probably survive this year, but I would imagine this will be their last, or at best second last. There are no DSFL receivers waiting to take over which is a worry, though Bodenhammer and Spencer should develop to take over the top role from Barker. I would think WR will be on the list of wants for the NOLA HO this offseason. With the unexpected retirement of Botty McBotterson the Second Line will be thankful they took Remus Roman and Taipan Pete in the S28 draft. Roman has earned very well and should come up this season to help the Second Line. Gyles Marret is a DE in the DSFL who will probably need another few seasons before they are ready to be called up as they are sitting on 176 TPE currently. The NOLA D-line are still pretty young so Marret may have to switch to DT to find a place on the team. MVP quarterback Ben Slothlisberger is also starting to regress losing 20% this season. New Orleans drafted IsHe ReallyInvisible in the S28 draft as a possible replacement. They have fallen behind other QB's in their draft class but still has plenty of time to catch up with their TPE. One bright spot for NOLA is O-lineman Cade Williams who has amassed 430 TPE in their time in the DSFL. NOLA will bring him up this year as they currently only have one o-line player Adam Mellot. This should help the new rookie QB when they eventually take over from Slothlisberger and should help the young rb corps to grind those yards. Kicker Pseudo QB is also losing 20% of their TPE and NOLA would do well to find a replacement. They only have 317 TPE so it would be best to move on and I am sure they will find one in this draft or in the offseason. New York Silverbacks New York Silverbacks are in a nice spot right now. Most of their core players are still a couple of seasons away from regression. The problem this offseason will be star defensive tackle Leon McDavid who is due for 25% regression. They have no DT in the DSFL, but they do have a very promising DE Mongo, who currently has 436 TPE. Mongo will probably be the long-term replacement for Kane-Maika’i so New York will probably be looking for a DT in this draft. Their top line-backer Jack Banks is just starting regression as is their top CB Colt Mendoza. De’Andre Chuggs is waiting to take over at line-backer but they do not have any CBs in the DSFL currently. I think the Silverbacks will target mainly defense in this draft as their offense is all just about to hit its peak. If they can find some studs to replace their top regressing players, the Silverbacks look good for the near future. They do need to find a kicker as Dougie Smalls is losing 25% of their TPE and there is no replacement lined up. Orange County Otters It looks like this is the beginning of the end for this Orange County Otters team. The top player in each position is facing regression this season, so this could be one last hurrah for OCO before they rebuild. Most of their main offensive players are all just taking a 20% hit so next season the team should still be very competitive. Their top OL, DT, DE and SS all face 25% regression this year though, which will really hurt the team’s defense. They have planned well though and have some replacements lined up. Mateers Rico-Shea is looking like a great O-line prospect and should fill the void left by Future Trunks. Anton Bruckner looks to be a star at CB which should help ease the pain of losing Brandon Booker in a few seasons. They will need to find a lot of value in the next couple of drafts though with no replacement waiting for QB Suleiman Ramza, WR Despacito, TE Heath Evans, DT Rotticus Scott, DE Rapid Eagle and SS Prince Vegeta. This is a huge moment in the franchise’s history and how they handle this transition will determine their future success. Philadelphia Liberty Philadelphia Liberty only has four players facing regression this season and are a team on the rise. Most of their team is from the S25 draft so when that regression starts to hit, they will feel it, but that’s a few seasons away yet. If they all keep earning well, they could really peak at the same time and be a force. The big losses this year are the blocking TE Avon Blocksdale Jr. who is losing 40% of their TPE and I would imagine is retiring. Borgo San Lorenzo is only S27 so they will be the TE for the foreseeable future. Flash Panda the WR is also facing a 25% reduction which will probably mean this is their last season. Philadelphia will be looking to get some young receivers in the draft as they have two good young ones now in Chambers and Asui so that depth would be welcome as they start to hit their peak. RB Lonny Jackson will probably be called up this year to be paired with Anders Christiansen. Jackson has already got 353 TPE and has been playing really well in the DSFL. I am sure Liberty would welcome his talents on offense this upcoming year. Another DSFL player we will likely see come up this year is safety Romulus Roman who has managed to get to 378 TPE. Liberty are struggling in the secondary with only one safety on the roster, so Roman should be able to come up and develop as he plays. Their current safety Matt Cross is just beginning regression this season so I would expect Philadelphia to be looking to make some moves and shore up the long-term future of their other safety spot. CB C.J. Sonjack should also come up as the Liberty only have two CB and could possibly use another. They have no worries with regression this season and will probably just grab BPA and try and upgrade and areas they can. Sarasota Sailfish The Sarasota Sailfish just hit their peak, as we have seen with their Ultimus win. Superstar running back Chan is now facing 25% regression this season. I noticed Chan was not on the Sailfish Team budget sheet, I don’t know if that means they are retiring, or they just don’t cost any money, but it could be a fresh scoop. Let us start the rumour anyway. Bianchi could take over if Chan does hang us his boots, with Tom Adamo coming in as some more depth. The real interesting part of their roster is DSFL MVP LeBron James at QB. Mike Boss is S24 and still a few seasons away from regression and James would be ready to start in the ISFL pretty soon. It’ll be interesting to see if James waits it out until Boss finally steps down or if they start to make some noise and demand to start sooner than Sailfish are ready to give him the spot. Witheblock is beginning regression but it’s only 20% and they have so much TPE they should still be great for a few seasons. Saleem Spence is waiting in the wings having earned a very respectable 464 TPE as an S28 draftee. Two of Sarasota’s starting safeties are beginning their regression journey, but they have Utterstruzen still there and 3 seasons away from regression plus Kelvin Harris looking like a future superstar waiting in the DSFL. The Sailfish look in a great spot to continue being one of the top teams in the ISFL. San Jose Sabercats The San Jose Sabercats are another team gazing into the abyss. QB Jack, RB Jackson and TE Lewandowski are all regressing this year. Lewandowski is on to 25% regression so should be looking at hanging up their boots soon. The Sabercats drafted Bobby Tarantino in the S27 draft who could come in to replace him. They only have 250 TPE so far, which is not spectacular but there is still plenty of time for them to start earning big and pushing to be the starting TE at San Jose. Red Arrow is their QB heir apparent and has 333 TPE coming out of the S28 draft class. Another few seasons in the DSFL and Arrow should be nearly ready to step into Jack’s shoes. Jack is only starting regression this season, so hopefully the two players ISFL careers will start and end at the right time for San Jose. An interesting point is CB Willie Miller is earning well with 311 TPE but San Jose already has a good CB corps where none are that old. Maybe the Sabercats will be looking to move one of their CB’s or they could switch one over to safety where they need someone as Stein is their only play at that position. Star kicker McDairmid also starts regression this season but they have 1347 TPE so could probably last a few more seasons yet before SAN Jose have to worry about the position. DT Otis Allen will lose 25% of their 1,160 TPE this season but should be ok for now. San Jose should be looking to invest in some d-line help as both their rookies are modest earners and they only have two d-lineman on the roster right now. Yellowknife Wraiths Ultimus champions Yellowknife Wraiths will start to feel the sting of regression this season and then be struggling by next. 8 of their starters all begin to regress this season and star LB Douglas Quaid goes into their second season of regression getting stung for 25%. Luke Waterson will be looking to take over that line-backer spot, though with only 239 TPE at the moment they will need some time to develop. Their main man at RB Rando Cadrissian retired this year but the Wraiths have planned for the future by snagging Erik Gaare in the S28 draft. Gaare has already got 335 TPE and should provide a nice one-two punch with Acura Skyline next season and eventually should take over as the lead back. Tre Washington at safety will come into one of their spots as both starting safeties start regressing this year. Yellowknife will need to make some moves to secure the other spot for the future. There are no massive needs right now for Yellowknife but the team all peaked this year and so most will need replacing in two or three seasons. Watch for them maybe making another playoff run this year, and also see where they focus investment for the future. Words - 4479 RE: Regression : What impact THEFT could have on all the teams. - Cheech65 - 05-13-2021 Clark Boyd cannot be replaced, merely imitated