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*Evaluating the NSFL Secondaries - Sweetwater - 08-11-2017
As a corner back in the NSFL, it is always interesting to me to see how different players and positional groups perform in the secondary. So, using some data from @7hawk77 and his new scraping tool, I thought I'd take a look at teams' secondary's TPE totals and their relation to defensive plays. Keep in mind that this is a very basic look from someone who is not versed in creating intricate formulas for calculating correlations. With that disclaimer out of the way, lets take a look at the players.
![[Image: AuHjjFB.jpg]](http://i.imgur.com/AuHjjFB.jpg)
Here is a look at the players, their teams, their positions, their total TPE, and their "defensive" plays that are what someone would typically associate with a defensive back. As another note, the sim counts an INT as both a Pass Defensed, and an Interception. I have counted them as separate stats, so while in the index it may say a player has 3 PDs and 2 INTs, in my charts that would be 1 PD and 2 INTs. As another note, with limited exception, the position listed with what was scraped from the sim, and my numbers are based on the assumption that they are correct. If there are any mistakes, please feel free to let me know, and I will make adjustments when I take another look at this later in the season.
Time to take a look at TPE totals for each team.
![[Image: lX4fhJj.jpg]](http://i.imgur.com/lX4fhJj.jpg)
These are the combined totals of all players on the team, with each group separately and a combined total. Now, for the most part, the teams with more players, either in a positional group, or as a whole, have higher TPE totals. Because some players haven't contributed, or are rarely on the field, I had to find a way to keep teams on a more even playing field. What I ended up doing, was creating what I call "Usable TPE". Usable TPE is what you get when you assume a standard formation of 2 corner backs and 2 safeties, and fill each spot with the highest available TPE player who plays that position. So, using the Wraiths as an example: For the CBs we would take Lavelle and Cutter, and for the safties, Hansen and Novel. By using this methodology, we assume each team has the "best" set of players out at all times. This may seem a little unfair, but it is unfair relatively equally. Following these rules, here are the numbers we get.
![[Image: l6nTl3J.jpg]](http://i.imgur.com/l6nTl3J.jpg)
You'll notice that this causes some interesting changes in team rankings, most notably the jump that Philly made, but also the steep drop for almost every other team. Here we can also start to see some of the interesting makeups of teams. It appears with the exception of Orange County and San Jose, most teams have a preference, whether intentional or not, of one group over the other. This may also just be a reflection of active players. But does this translate to performance? One would expect a team with a significantly better positional group would get significantly better performance out of that group. With that said, here are the numbers for the total passing defensive plays made by each team.
![[Image: 0M41wMv.jpg]](http://i.imgur.com/0M41wMv.jpg)
Now things start to get really interesting. Safeties, on average, make more tackles and are slightly more likely to make an interception. Whereas corner backs are more likely to deflect passes.
Now, lets take a look at the Yeti secondary. They have the highest TPE set of corner backs in the league, yet are being arguably outplayed by most other corner back corps. The opposite is true for the Wraiths safeties. They are just below the middle of the pack, but are putting up arguably the best numbers in the league.
What this tells me is something I'm sure we all know, but is nonetheless important to document and reiterate. It's not the number of TPE you, its how you use them. Obviously some stats/builds/archetypes are more beneficial to a position than others, but this also does not factor for strength of competition or opportunity. A team that plays weaker teams will put up better numbers than one that faces tougher ones, but if a better DB goes up against a weaker receiver, they are more likely to make a play on the ball.
As the title of the article says, we are evaluating the secondaries. I needed a way to quantify how effective the secondary was. So, I came up with a basic formula to help me do that. To start, we need to take all the defensive play numbers, and combine them in a way that makes if possible to compare them side by side. I used the following to calculate the numbers in the next chart. Tackles are worth 1 point, passes defensed are worth 2, and interceptions are worth 4. My reasoning was that tackles are the baseline defensive action, passes defensed were twice as good, because they prevented any play from happening and are less likely, and interceptions are the rarest but also are a turnover, so they are twice as good again. As I stated earlier, this may not be the best formula, but it gives us something to work with.
Now for the numbers.
![[Image: SZlFLzB.jpg]](http://i.imgur.com/SZlFLzB.jpg)
As you can see, total usable TPE doesn't always correlate to overall defensive performance. I don't come to this conclusion lightly though. What I haven't posted is the 4 or 5 different permutations of formulas that I went through when trying to establish a relationship between tackles, passes defensed, and interceptions. But, were I to, you would see that the team order never really changes, and neither does my conclusion.
Football is a team sport, and if all of the players are not working together, you start to see the cracks form. While individual TPE often correlates to NFSL success, the sim seems to attempt to find the weakest member of a group and pick on them.
What's even more interesting is how defensive performance, in terms of secondary measurable stats, doesn't really correlate to overall defensive performance. The San Jose Sabercats have the best secondary when you look at my charts, but have given up the second most passing yards in the league. The Yeti, in contrast, have much lower secondary defensive action numbers, but have allowed the second fewest passing yards in the league.
What does this all mean? Well, it would appear that some teams run a high risk/high reward ballhawking defense, and others are more conservative. Does this come down to play calling, individual TPE, or defensive matchups? Arguably everything plays into gameday performance, but we can see that, as always, a TPE advantage will definitely afford a team a better chance to make a play in the secondary, regardless of team performance.
Now for the difficult part, ranking the secondaries. I've put them into tiers because ranking them numerically has proved incredibly difficult.
Tier 1
-Orange County Otters
The Otters have the most PDs in the league, and the 3rd most tackles. They also have the 3rd fewest passing yards against them in the league. They are at or near the top in most measurable categories despite average performance from most of their players. They mesh as a group and allow few yards after the catch.
-Yellowknife Wraiths
The Wraiths have the fewest passing yards allowed in the league, and their safeties have the most tackles of the secondary positional groups. With Dermot Lavelle, the highest TPE corner in the league, shutting down an entire side of the field, their safeties frequently make important stops, and can provide help to the weak side. The secondary is arguably the heart of their defense, especially with their bottom ranked run defense. It also may help that they never have to go up against the #1 receiver in the league.
Tier 2
-San Jose Sabercats
I'm sure I'll catch some flak for this, and it's a bit of a homer pick. But, they have made the most plays on the ball. The highest overall TPE, the most tackles, the second most passes defensed, the second most interceptions. It's honestly hard to believe that they have allowed so many passing yards. I truly believe they are better than they appear, they just need to find a spark and come together as a group.
-Arizona Outlaws
Solid, middle of the road secondary. Nothing blows you away, nothing is shockingly awful. They may not put up the prettiest numbers, but their record speaks for itself.
-Colorado Yeti
They're putting up some surprisingly strong play despite a weaker than average cornerback showing. I expect more from Carter and Hayden, who are the #2 and #3 ranked corner backs in the league in terms of TPE. Above average yardage performance with below average playmaking puts them in the middle of the pack. No surprise that they're 3-3.
Tier 3
-Baltimore Hawks
At 5th in the league in passing yards allowed, and arguable the worst performing safeties in the league, the Hawks need to make some changes if they want to improve their performance in the defensive passing game. I would expect a much different regular season record just looking at the raw numbers. I'm surprised teams haven't tried the areal assault against them more often, considering almost half of their PDs and INTs came against the 1-5 Legion.
-Philadelphia Liberty
The Liberty have a tough challenge ahead of them, but all the tools to accomplish it. Lincoln Jefferson is the highest TPE defensive back in the league, though he hasn't really been performing as such. The Liberty have allowed the most passing yards in the league, but have also had the most interceptions and second most tackles. I would expect to see this secondary be frightening next year. I suspect part of their misfortune has come from their offensive woes allowing other teams to have more drives.
Tier 4
-Las Vegas Legion
It's no surprise that an expansion team is at the bottom. The Legion have the lowest TPE among secondaries, with only one player above 100. The Legion need their secondary to be as active as possible if they want to be competitive in this or even possibly next season. They are doing surprisingly well despite these facts. They are only 6 of 8 in league passing yards against, and have the highest TPE to Defensive Play ratio by my metrics. They have nowhere to go but up, and having all of their players around the same point in their progression means that they could all come into their primes at around the same time to become one solid unit.
It's been interesting watching teams and players develop from last season to this one and throughout this season as well. I look forward to taking another look at this later in the year to see how these groups develop. I hope to hear from you as well as to how you think your team is doing, how they could improve, or why you totally disagree with my rankings. Again, keep in mind this was a very superficial look into the secondaries and should be taken with a jumbo margarita amount of salt, and probably the marg as well. Will these rankings stay the same throughout the year? Will they be the complete opposite? I want to see how the ever changing landscape of archetype balancing will affect things, and how our increased knowledge and experience with the sim shapes secondaries into elite units. Who will be the next Legion of Boom? The next No Fly Zone? And who will be the Saints secondary of the NSFL?
As one last fun exercise, I wanted to create my ideal secondary, as a standard, nickel, and dime formations.
LCB - John Canton
RCB - Dermot Lavelle
SS - Ja Brill
FS - Lincoln Jefferson
Nickel Back - Isiah Rashad
Dime Back - Antoine Delacour
There you have it. I believe the dream team I made there would make even Ethan Hunt afraid to throw the ball.
Code:
2001 Words and some stats. Ready to be graded.@ckroyal92
@`Dermot`
@adam2552
@Destroyer
@37thchamber
@daBenchwarmer
Graded
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*Evaluating the NSFL Secondaries - ErMurazor - 08-11-2017
@theFlock isn't in your ideal secondary...WRONG.
*Evaluating the NSFL Secondaries - daBenchwarmer - 08-11-2017
why did u tag me if i'm not even part of the analysis
woat
*Evaluating the NSFL Secondaries - Dangles13 - 08-11-2017
Nice work here bud.
*Evaluating the NSFL Secondaries - theFlock - 08-11-2017
You put Ja Brill in your ideal secondary? Not me? Not Hardrool? Not Speed?
I understand Speed and Hardrool play FS, but if you're not going to pick me, at least throw them in there. I have nearly 100 more TPE, and my stats are better.
But I like the team you built. Great write up, boss. See you in the Pro Bowl.
*Evaluating the NSFL Secondaries - Kronen - 08-11-2017
Otters as a tier 1 secondary!?!? :stoked:
I'd like to thank the academy. My mother who's here tonight, couldn't do it without her... My strength coach @timeconsumer. :cigar:And of course @Roshambo for leading us with tenacity, verve and panache as he cleans up with all those juicy linebacker tackles and sacks.
*Evaluating the NSFL Secondaries - timeconsumer - 08-11-2017
(08-11-2017, 09:05 AM)Kronen Wrote:Otters as a tier 1 secondary!?!? :stoked:
And of course @Roshambo for leading us with tenacity, verve and panache as he cleans up with all those juicy linebacker tackles and sacks.
:lift: :lift: :lift:
*Evaluating the NSFL Secondaries - Sweetwater - 08-11-2017
(08-11-2017, 02:08 AM)daBenchwarmer Wrote:why did u tag me if i'm not even part of the analysis
woat
I mentioned you once lol, it was 2am cut me some slack
*Evaluating the NSFL Secondaries - Sweetwater - 08-11-2017
(08-11-2017, 07:36 AM)theFlock Wrote:You put Ja Brill in your ideal secondary? Not me? Not Hardrool? Not Speed?
I understand Speed and Hardrool play FS, but if you're not going to pick me, at least throw them in there. I have nearly 100 more TPE, and my stats are better.
But I like the team you built. Great write up, boss. See you in the Pro Bowl.
Honestly, had been staring at names and numbers for a few hours, things may have gotten overlooked. Brill was a bit of a homer pick, and I wasn't basing my team purely on stats or TPE, and a GM has a value as an active, long-term player. Hardrool (@Saliva^) is Underrated as hell, and he's gonna keep lighting it up this year. As far as you go, there's a decent chance that at 2am I looked at you and thought you were a CB.
But again, I didn't say this was [I]the[I/] ideal lineup, just the one I would want. And those feelings change through the season.
*Evaluating the NSFL Secondaries - 7hawk77 - 08-11-2017
Great write up!
Hopefully you got some well deserved rest after
