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+---- Thread: *Ranking the importance of the Friday games (/showthread.php?tid=3246)
*Ranking the importance of the Friday games - iamslm22 - 08-11-2017
Hey everyone. We are at the midpoint of the season here in the NSFL and coming up on a HUGE slate of games here on weeks 7 and 8. At the middle of the season it is not too early to start thinking of playoff seeding and positioning, and this article is going to go through all eight games and evaluate how important these games are for playoff positioning. Just an FYI the rankings consider the teams records and whether both teams are in the same conference, since intra conference games have extra importance given the way teams make the playoffs and how home field is decided on the way to the battle for the Ultimus Trophy.
Number 8 - Week 7 - Legion at Liberty
Starting with the least important game, its pretty clearly the Legion and the Liberty. No offense to either expansion team but with each team sitting at 1-5 it seems very unlikely that either team is going to make the playoffs. Both teams have struggled this year, with the Legion trading away an important piece already for draft picks next year.
Number 7 - Week 8 - Legion at SaberCats
Next up is the Legion traveling to San Jose to face the SaberCats. The SaberCats have a huge game coming up in week 7 (will get to that later), but no matter the result the worst case scenario for San Jose is that the team should be still at .500. They have a game at home against the lowly Legion, who have not won a game on the road. This game's importance would rise substantially if Las Vegas could somehow win in San Jose.
Number 6 - Week 8 - Wraiths at Liberty
This is the final game that involves one of the lowly expansion teams. Given all the other teams are in playoff contention, the Philly and Las Vegas games are sadly all low on the list of must watch games. With a huge game for Yellowknife in week 7 (again will discuss later) this week 8 game in Philly is a must win. They have to beat Philly, and while Philly has been struggling this year, they did beat Colorado at home in week five. A loss to Philly here could be disastrous for the Wraiths.
Number 5 - Week 7 - SaberCats at Yeti
This is where the games start getting serious. Both San Jose and Colorado are at .500 and a win in week 7 would put the teams in solid positioning in their respective conferences. San Jose has an easy week 8 game, but Colorado has another tough test, so a home loss for Colorado in week 7 could be disasterous depending on the success of Baltimore and Yellowknife.
Number 4 - Week 8 - Yeti at Otters
Here is another big game for both teams. Depending on week 7 week 8 could be a must win for Colorado. Falling to 3-5 would be utter disaster. And the same can be said for Orange County. If week 7 goes well for both teams, then both teams here can challenge for their conferences with a win. Big game
Number 3 - Week 8 - Outlaws at Hawks
This game also has the potential to rise or fall depending on the outcomes of week 7. If both teams win in week 7, then a win in week 8 puts either team in dominant position to have home field throughout the playoffs. If one of these two teams lose in week 7 then this game could turn into a must win, especially for Baltimore given that they are at home.
Number 2 - Week 7 - Outlaws at Otters
The top two games are two high leverage intra conference games in week 7. Starting with Arizona traveling to Orange County. If Orange County wants to win its conference, this game is a must win. No doubt about it. A loss here at home would put the otters three games back of Arizona for the division lead, and give them the tie breaker (essentially meaning they are four back). Meanwhile a win for Orange County here would mean that the team has a good shot at the division if they can take Colorado at home in week 8.
Number 1 - Week 7 - Wraiths at Hawks
Here is a HUGE game. It does not get much bigger this early in the season. Yellowknife and Baltimore are tied for the division lead, with the winner of this game taking the driver seat. Baltimore especially cannot afford a loss here as this game is in Baltimore. Can the Hawks use home field advantage to their advantage? Or will Yellowknight be able to come in, take down Baltimore and take control of the NSFC?
Well there you have it folks. Which games do you find most important? Which are you most looking forward to? Leave us a comment to discuss.
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*Ranking the importance of the Friday games - kckolbe - 08-11-2017
I think you are underestimating the importance of Wraiths at Liberty. It's a winnable game, but not a guaranteed win, and by winning it the Wraiths are all but guaranteed #1 in the NSFC due to both Baltimore and Colorado losing a road game to an expansion team.
*Ranking the importance of the Friday games - iamslm22 - 08-11-2017
(08-11-2017, 09:07 AM)kckolbe Wrote:I think you are underestimating the importance of Wraiths at Liberty. It's a winnable game, but not a guaranteed win, and by winning it the Wraiths are all but guaranteed #1 in the NSFC due to both Baltimore and Colorado losing a road game to an expansion team.
I can definitely see that, but the games between those teams will matter more that the Liberty game
*Ranking the importance of the Friday games - kckolbe - 08-11-2017
(08-11-2017, 07:36 AM)iamslm22 Wrote:I can definitely see that, but the games between those teams will matter more that the Liberty gameI don't think SaberCats at Yeti matters at all in that it's clearly a win for the Yeti. In real life it would be a huge game because "any given Sunday," but in the sim it seems so guaranteed as to be meaningless.
*Ranking the importance of the Friday games - timeconsumer - 08-11-2017
(08-11-2017, 10:41 AM)kckolbe Wrote:I don't think SaberCats at Yeti matters at all in that it's clearly a win for the Yeti. In real life it would be a huge game because "any given Sunday," but in the sim it seems so guaranteed as to be meaningless.
Very incorrect. Although the odds are pretty stacked for home teams (a 50/50 game on the road is a 75/25 at home) we're not talking about a 1% chance for a road team to win, it's usually closer to 25-15%, I think one of the lowest I saw was maybe 5%. There's still a fighting chance for road teams.
*Ranking the importance of the Friday games - kckolbe - 08-11-2017
(08-11-2017, 07:45 AM)timeconsumer Wrote:Very incorrect. Although the odds are pretty stacked for home teams (a 50/50 game on the road is a 75/25 at home) we're not talking about a 1% chance for a road team to win, it's usually closer to 25-15%, I think one of the lowest I saw was maybe 5%. There's still a fighting chance for road teams.I'm also considering that the Yeti are a much stronger team than the Cats. On neutral ground they would win the vast majority of the time.
*Ranking the importance of the Friday games - Muford - 08-11-2017
(08-11-2017, 08:41 AM)kckolbe Wrote:I don't think SaberCats at Yeti matters at all in that it's clearly a win for the Yeti. In real life it would be a huge game because "any given Sunday," but in the sim it seems so guaranteed as to be meaningless.
Just want to throw out there based off your logic then It should of been a clear win for San Jose when you visited last week, but you came back and won it in the second half. Yes the sim favors the home team, but anything can happen.
*Ranking the importance of the Friday games - kckolbe - 08-11-2017
(08-11-2017, 09:38 AM)Muford Wrote:Just want to throw out there based off your logic then It should of been a clear win for San Jose when you visited last week, but you came back and won it in the second half. Yes the sim favors the home team, but anything can happen.
Not really. The Cats were favored, but the Wraiths do have more TPE than the Cats, mitigating home field advantage. In the Cats v Yeti matchup we are talking about a VERY strong home team hosting a weaker team.
*Ranking the importance of the Friday games - Muford - 08-11-2017
(08-11-2017, 10:40 AM)kckolbe Wrote:Not really. The Cats were favored, but the Wraiths do have more TPE than the Cats, mitigating home field advantage. In the Cats v Yeti matchup we are talking about a VERY strong home team hosting a weaker team.
Going again off your theory, then how did the Legion and Liberty win at home, when they were underdogs in the TPE department by a larger margin then the Cats were against you, as well as being at home.
*Ranking the importance of the Friday games - kckolbe - 08-11-2017
(08-11-2017, 09:44 AM)Muford Wrote:Going again off your theory, then how did the Legion and Liberty win at home, when they were underdogs in the TPE department by a larger margin then the Cats were against you, as well as being at home.
Weaker at home is one advantage and one disadvantage. I am talking about a game where the weaker team is on the road, doubly disadvantaged.