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+---- Thread: *ISFL W2 Primetime 'Game to Watch' (/showthread.php?tid=32562)
*ISFL W2 Primetime 'Game to Watch' - thevoicelesscreator - 05-26-2021
Ready for Grading. Word Count: 1177
Preview:
Week 2’s feature game is an ASFC Clash of the Heavyweights. The visiting Outlaws (1-0) will be taking on the Copperheads (1-0) in an early bout that has serious potential conference implications. The Outlaws were the top seed headed into the playoff last year, before the Copperheads upset them in the ASFC Championship game. Although the Copperheads would go on to lose to the Yellowknife Wraiths, it was a very close game.
Analysis:
There’s not a ton separating these two giants, which is why this match is going to be so fun to watch. The Copperheads have the home field advantage, so let’s start with them. Austin runs what I call the Balanced Offensive. Led by quarterback Jackie Daytona, Austin’s offense starts in the backfield. Zoe Watts is the primary back, with Ben Alexander-Arnold as a fully dedicated fullback, and Jim the Vampire playing the elusive role of receiving back. In terms of passing targets, Daytona has their pick between Videl-San, Doug Howlett, and the rookie Bayley Cowabunga in the outfield, with Friedrich Vequain rounding out the offense at TE.
This is a switch from their offense last year, which saw them pass the 3rd least in the league - likely due to Daytona being another year older, and much better. In their Week 1 win against Honolulu, they threw a total of 31 times, while running the ball 27 times (Watts and Jim split carries, but with Watts averaging 8.9 yards a carry to Jim’s 2.9 yards a carry, watch for that game plan to change quickly).
Now let’s see what they are up against! Defensively, it looks like Arizona is running a 3-4 scheme this year. Unfortunately, I can tell that because they don’t have enough DL to flex to a 4-3 package without playing someone out of position. Arizona’s front 3 are all made up of defensive tackles - Chuck Roth (1042 TPE), Pete "Plop" Miller (1005 TPE) and Fergus Callaghan Jr. (450 TPE). This is likely because when you run a 3-4 in DDSPF21, your DL consists of 3 DT (Left DT, Nose Tackle, Right DT) instead of (Left Edge Rush, Nose Tackle, Right Edge Rush). In theory, because of position skill, having all 3 play as DT should help them be better. In application, the 3-4 is just awful at stopping the penetrative runs that Austin are so good at. But, of course, it’s a little more complicated than that.
Remember how I said that Arizona don’t have the personnel to run a 4-3 package? Ah-ha - go back, I said they didn’t have enough DL to flex to a 4-3 package. Technically the truth. However, Arizona carry 5 linebackers, include legendary Edge Rusher Galf Wilf. In theory, we could see the extra linebackers flex to DE, while subbing out Fergus Callaghan Jr. to form a functional 4-3. So when comparing the trenches, we’ll look at both. In their Base 3-4 package, Arizona averages 823 TPE over 3 players. However, it’s worth a reminder that 2/3 Arizona linemen are over 1000 TPE, and Callaghan Jr.’s 450 TPE brings that average down. However, if we look at the presumed 4-3 package, subbing out Callaghan Jr. and adding Glenn Smart and Galf Wilf brings the average down to 753 TPE, but crucially adds the extra player closer to the line of scrimmage.
If Austin had an excellent Offensive Line, Arizona would actually be at quite a disadvantage. Unfortunately, they do not. Austin’s fully human offensive line averages 570 TPE, which honestly isn’t that bad… Until you realize that 3/5 OL are below 450 TPE. If Arizona bring the heat, Daytona is going to be in some trouble!
Arizona’s secondary is also no laughing matter. While the 3-4 package can allow some deep gashing runs from time to time, what it gives you is a blanket of air superiority. 2/4 starting Linebackers in the 3-4 package are of the Coverage archetype, and with 2 1000+ TPE corners, 2 elite safety’s (Erickson is 842 TPE from regression but still elite). On average, if Austin throw into the 3-4, there will be 6 players looking to make a defensive play to stop them.
Offensively, Arizona is a tight unit of veterans. While there are only 6 offensive players total (1 QB, 2 RB, and 3 WR), those 6 are all amongst the league’s elite. Most notable is the one-two running punch they carry. With Nakamura and Memes at 1200+ TPE, the Outlaws are one of the few teams that probably could run their way through any competition. Hopefully, we see their running game be more effective than they were in Week 1. Should they choose to air it out instead, Cortez has 3 1000+ TPE Wide Receivers to play with.
Austin’s defense lines up in a 4-3 base, with a 4 man defensive line for almost all plays. In terms of skill, Austin is really hurting here. Their DL is lead by Edge Rusher Troen Egghands, who sits at 1244 TPE. But behind him are the other 3, who sit an average 580 TPE each. With Troen, their average rises to 746 TPE per player. Fortunately for the Copperheads, the Outlaws are also dealing with a bit of an offensive line issue. While their OL is also completely human, 4/5 of them are below 550 TPE. Together, they average 527 TPE per player - which would put them on par with Austin’s own OL.
However, where the Copperheads excel is the middle of the field. They have what I think might be the scariest Linebacker core in the league right now. Tyler Montain (1441 TPE), Brach Thomaslacher (1261 TPE), and Dex Kennedy (1127 TPE) make up what I think is the most dominant unit of Linebackers (only the Yeti have 3 LBs over 1000 TPE, but Austin’s LB are higher TPE).
Austin also have the best CB duo in the league with Lesean Paris Crooks and Maverick Bowie ranking 1st and 4th in current TPE amongst cornerbacks in the league. The deep ball may be an option, as Safety is Austin’s weakest position (besides offensive line). However, will Cortez have the time to get the ball out? We’ll have to see!
Conclusion:
In complete honesty, I think these are by far the two best teams in the ASFC. And I don’t think the gap is very close in that conference. So if you’re only going to watch one ASFC game this season, let it be this one.
I talked a massive amount about the OL vs DL battle, and there is good reason for that. The Silverbacks managed to sack the Outlaw’s Cortez a total of 6 times in Week 1. Austin’s Daytona was sacked a total of 3 times by Honolulu. Expect both teams to take some big hits, and often.
Player Storylines:
This isn’t quite a storyline - but it’s a cool fact! There are 3 players from the S20 Draft that still remain on an ISFL. 2/3 play for Arizona (Desmond Scarlett, and Galf Wilf) - can you guess the 3rd?