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+---- Thread: *S28 DSFL Safety of the Year Analysis (/showthread.php?tid=32566)
*S28 DSFL Safety of the Year Analysis - Alcott - 05-26-2021
Double Media Charity Credit Here
First off I would like to start by congratulating ‘Captain’ John Prince on winning the Season 28 DSFL Safety of the Year award, as well as all the other nominees for outstanding seasons. Secondly I’ll explain what the point of this post is: reviewing the DSFL S28 Safety of the Year nominees and watching their best game to determine if the voting process made sense and the best player won. Honestly I would also have liked to go through the voting and to see how that lined up with the season and what traits were valued, but after looking through the ballot spreadsheet I really have no clue what went on so I’ll just leave that as a mystery to all. Anyway, the list of nominees in the order they were posted on the award nominee post are:
Strong Safety - Romulus Roman - Tijuana Luchadors
Free Safety - Kelvin Harris - Norfolk Sea Wolves
Free Safety - Cole Maxwell - Dallas Birddogs
Free Safety - 'Captain' John Price - Minnesota Grey Ducks
Free Safety - Darius Severance - Dallas Birddogs
Strong Safety Nominees and Individual Game Film Review
To start off the evaluations we have the only strong safety nomination of the year, Romulus Roman from Tijuana:
SS - Romulus Roman - TIJ 88 - TKL 1/1 - FF/FR 0 - SCK 2 - INT 5 - PD 0 - TD
Romulus clearly had a very good season from his nomination alone, but his standout trait compared to the other nominees this year was his position leading 88 tackles. Notable games for the year included Week 3 against the Dallas Birddogs where he recorded a single game record for tackles with 11, Week 6 against the Kansas City Coyotes where he set his single game record for fumble recoveries and fumble return yards with 1 recovery and 8 return yards, and Week 11 for his single game record of 11 interception return yards. As stated previously, Romulus led the position in tackles, which is more or less the most important statistic for the position, so we’ll focus on his Week 3 matchup as the signature game film to review.
Roman’s first impact on the game comes with 6:15 remaining in the first, tackling Running Back Eric Gaare on a run up the middle. Not long after with 3:39 left in the first, Roman was back at it, tackling RB Gaare again after a run to the right boundary. Roman’s next play of importance was not as spectacular, with 9:33 left in the second quarter RB Gaare is able to elude Roman on a run up the gut, fortunately for the safety he was able to chase the ball carrier down and make the touchdown saving tackle at the ten yard line. Gaare is able to get the better of Roman again just two plays later at 8:31 remaining in the second quarter, weaving by the would be tackler and making his way into the endzone. There are a few runs before the next true impact play that could either be considered missed tackles or successful blocks by the offense, it’s hard to tell in the sim so I’ll just skip over those to 11:32 left in the third, where Wide Receiver Ivan Toastovich makes a catch on an out route before being tackled by Roman, arguably the only defender who could’ve prevented a touchdown on the play. The very next play with 10:42 remaining in the third quarter, Roman makes a stop on RB Gaare’s first down run, although Roman does commit a penalty in the process that grants Dallas a first down. The next play of importance comes with 5:20 left in the third, where Roman tackles RB Gaare on another first down run to the left side of the field. Similarly on the next play (4:31 left in the third quarter) Roman makes the tackle on a RB Gaare run, to the right side of the field this time. Moving on to 13:59 remaining in the fourth quarter, Roman is in coverage on Wide Receiver Bayley Cowabunga who runs a ten yard stop before making the catch and being brought down by Roman immediately. The next impact play for Roman comes with 4:31 left in the game, stopping WR Toastovich on the one yard line to prevent a touchdown. After a short rest Roman is again making a stop, with 2:06 left in the game Roman is able to bring down Running Back Sirdsvaldis Miglaskems before reaching the first down marker. The next play Roman again makes the tackle on RB Miglaskems, but the RB is able to make the first down conversion regardless and run out the clock to end the game.
Free Safety Nominees and Individual Game Film Review
Next we will begin the streak of free safety nominees, with the first being Kelvin Harris from Norfolk:
FS - Kelvin Harris - NOR 70 - TKL 2/1 - FF/FR 0 - SCK 5 - INT 9 - PD 1 - TD
Finishing as runner up in the voting, Kelvin’s superb season was more well rounded than outstanding in one particular area. He was second among free safeties in tackles, tied for the human controlled players for fumble recoveries, tied for the positional lead in interceptions, tied for second among safeties in passes defensed and tied for second with touchdowns. It’s a little easier to pick out Kelvin’s best performance of Season 29, as he was able to set single game records for defensive touchdowns and interceptions, with 1 and 2 respectively, in Week 10 against the Tijuana Luchadors. He was also recognized for top defensive performances in week 10.
Harris’s first impact play is a doozie, with 5:21 remaining in the first quarter he is able to jump in front of Wide Receiver Rocky Jackman on the out route to snag an interception. Jackman gets his payback with Harris’s next play of relevance, with only 1:22 left in the second quarter the WR is able to make the catch in the open field and then make Harris miss the tackle on his way into the endzone. Harris, not to be the one left holding the bag, makes another big splash on the next defensive play, with only 0:19 left in the first half he steps in front of the seam route run by Tight End Gronku Muerto and takes the interception all the way back 27 yards for a defensive touchdown, The next play of importance comes with 8:57 left in the third quarter on a Tijuana fourth down play, Wide Receiver Usain Bolt makes the catch and is streaking towards the end zone before being chased down at the five yard line by Harris to prevent the touchdown. In the fourth quarter, with 11:52 remaining Harris makes his next and final impact on the game by tackling Running Back H20 Pappi after a 16 yard gain on the ground.
FS - Cole Maxwell - DAL 58 - TKL 1/0 - FF/FR 3 - SCK 3 - INT 8 - PD 2 - TD
Cole Maxwell is the more experienced of the two Dallas safeties nominated for the Safety of the Year award, but played out of position at strong safety and sometimes even corner to best serve his team and allow his teammates to play their more comfortable positions. His key statistics for the year were tying for third among safeties (second for just free safeties) in sacks, tied for fourth among safeties in passes defensed, and led the position in defensive touchdowns. Maxwell had many outstanding games during the season, recording single game records in Weeks 1, 4, 5, 7 and 8 for interception return yards, defensive touchdowns, sacks, tackles, and forced fumbles respectively, however his best game was the Week 9 outing against the London Royals. He was also recognized for top defensive performances in weeks 4 and 9.
Maxwell makes his first play of the game on just his second defensive play with 13:34 remaining in the first quarter, jumping the route by Fullback J. Robot Oppenheimer to intercept the Red Arrow pass and return it 38 yards for the defensive touchdown. Two plays later with 12:24 remaining in the first quarter, Maxwell is in coverage on Tight End Queen Jellyfish who is able to make the catch and advance a yard or so before Maxwell finishes the tackle. On the following play, 11:55 remaining in the first quarter, Maxwell makes the run stop on Running Back Manhattan Project. Two plays later, 10:33 remaining the first quarter, Maxwell makes the tackle out in space after Running Back Taipan Pete made the reception on the swing route. A not as stellar play follows, with 0:54 left in the first quarter, RB Pete is able to elude Maxwell’s tackle and gain an extra 9 or so yards before being tackled by the other Dallas safety. The next relevant play for Maxwell comes with 7:55 remaining in the second quarter, tackling RB Project on a second down run play to the right side of the field. With just 2:53 remaining in the first half, Maxwell makes another impact with a pass deflection targeting TE Jellyfish on the crossing route. Maxwell makes another run stop at 12:26 remaining in the third quarter on RB Project. On the next play of importance with 0:34 left in the third quarter, Maxwell uses his range to track down Wide Receiver Anna Bell after the WR is able to make the catch and elude the corner in coverage. The very next play, with 15:00 remaining in the fourth quarter, Maxwell fills the run lane and makes the stop on RB Project for his final impact on the game.
FS - 'Captain' John Price - MINN 51 - TKL 2/1 - FF/FR 2 - SCK 5 - INT 15 - PD 0 - TD
The eventual winner of the Safety of the Year award, Price had a big year for the Grey Ducks. He managed to lead the position in passes defensed, tied for the position lead in interceptions, tied for second among human safeties in forced fumbles, and tied for first among human safeties in fumble recoveries. Price’s notable games for Season 28 include Week 2 against the Portland Pythons where he set single game records for tackles, forced fumbles, and fumble recoveries and Week 12 against the Dallas Birddogs where he set his single game record for interceptions. In the end the Week 2 performance was the more impressive, and thus the film to review for Price. Price was also recognized for top defensive performances in Week 2.
The first notable play of the game for Price is unfortunately not a good one, with 7:48 left in the first Wide Receiver Saleem Spence outruns the safety after making the catch (granted Price was in coverage on another player, but seems to have just barely missed deflecting the pass). The next play of interest is also not great, at 5:32 left in the first quarter Running Back Noah Johns is able to outrun Price to the edge on a sweep to score a touchdown. Price’s next active play comes with 14:15 left in the second quarter, where he is in coverage against Wide Receiver Aleksandr Vasiliev who runs a ten yard dig and makes the catch before being tackled by Price for a ten yard gain and a first down. Deeper into the quarter, with only 4:46 left in the second, Vasiliev catches a quick slant that Price is able to drive on and make the tackle immediately to limit the gain to only 9 yards. Not long after with 3:00 left in the second quarter Price drives down towards the line of scrimmage, almost deflects a pass to Vasiliev, and then proceeds to chase the wide out towards the endzone where the corner is able to make the tackle at the one yard line. The next play of importance is after halftime, with 14:47 left in the third quarter Wide Receiver Saleem Spence catches a pass up the seam and is hit hard by Price, causing a fumble that is recovered by the defense. Price’s next impact play comes with 4:44 left in the third, when Spence runs a slant and catches the ball before getting tackled almost immediately by Price to limit the gain to 9 yards. The very next with 3:55 to play in the third play RB Jones takes the handoff and breaks a huge gain down the right sideline before Price is able to run him down and prevent the touchdown. Just two plays later with 2:34 left in the third quarter Spence catches another pass and eludes the corner’s tackle attempt, but Price is able to race over to the sideline and make the tackle at the three yard line to prevent another touchdown on this drive. Price’s biggest play of the game comes with 13:08 left in the fourth quarter, as he blitzes and is able to not only sack QB LeBron James III, but force a fumble and recover it himself on the Python 9 yard line. In his last impactful play of the day, with 6:43 left in the game, Price is able to make the tackle on Running Back Remus Roman to prevent the first down on the play.
FS - Darius Severance - DAL 42 - TKL 1/1 - FF/FR 1 - SCK 2 - INT 3 - PD 0 - TD
Severance, the only rookie on the nominee list, joins backfield mate Cole Maxwell as the only tandem to be elected for this award. Some of the first year’s standout games include Week 2 against the Bondi Beach Buccaneers where got both interceptions on the season and Week 4 against the London Royals where he got his forced fumble and fumble recovery. Week 2 was definitely the brightest spot for the rook, so that’s where we’ll take a look at his play.
Severance’s first impactful play of the day came with just 0:09 left in the first quarter, but made it count by stepping in front of a Dexter Zaylren pass intended for Running Back Akil Ozymandias and returning it for 9 yards. There is another large gap in play before Severance’s next impact, with 1:26 left in the second quarter he tackles Wide Receiver Bismo Funyuns after a short completion. His next relevant play is unfortunately a bad rep, with 13:40 left in the third quarter Severance is in coverage on Tight End Beau Novak, who is able to slide behind Severance while making the catch and continuing upfield until tackled by the corner. Striking again with only 0:12 left in the third quarter, Severance tackles WR Funyuns after a short gain on third down to prevent the down conversion and force the punt. The next play Severance affects is with 10:01 on the clock in the fourth quarter when RB Ozymandias makes a catch out on the boundary and leaves the corner behind as he races down the sideline. Severance is able to chase him down and tackle Ozymandias at the 8 yard line to prevent the touchdown. With 3:15 left in the game, Severance is able to make his second interception of the game, stepping in front of the pass to Tight End Chevvy Bronko and returning it 11 yards.
Team and Unit Performance
Due to the nature of the game, many awards are tied to team performance, even individual excellence awards. This is a complex issue as some would argue the team’s record should have no impact on how an individual’s performance is measured, while others would insist that examining the success of the team over the season is a useful gauge to measure an individual’s true impact and excellence compared to their peers. I tend to think the team and unit performance can help inform the stats more, for example if a team loses lots of games they will generally be behind in the score for a majority of the time, which will then lead the opposing teams to run the ball more than pass. This type of opposing play will increase tackles but reduce the opportunity for interceptions and pass break ups. The overall unit’s performance can also be a useful tool to see how the player performed within the system itself, and what percent of each statistic they accounted for. So with that in mind we will review the nominee’s team record and defensive unit performance to determine if any statistics were biased due to opposing play and how the player ranked within their own defensive unit.
Tijuana Luchadores -
The Luchadores finished the season with a record of 8-6 and a first place finish in the South Conference, leading to a playoff game against the Bondi Beach Buccaneers and eventual Ultimini loss. Overall that would appear to be a very successful season, but with an almost balanced record and decently positive point differential (+38) I don’t think there would be much influence in opposing play that could bias the statistics in one direction or another. Compared to the other defensive units in the league, Tijuana ranked third in points allowed (300), fourth in tackles (679), second in tackles for loss (42), fifth in defensive fumble recoveries (7), fifth in forced fumbles (16), tied for sixth in sacks (20), second in interceptions (16), first in passes defensed (84), and tied for fifth in defensive touchdowns (1).
For Roman’s contribution within the defense, he was third in tackles (88) and accounted for 13% of the team total, tied for fourth in forced fumbles (1) which was 6.2% of the team total, tied for second in defensive fumble recoveries (1) which was 14% of the team total, third in interceptions (2) which accounted for 13% of the team total, fifth in pass deflections (5) which was 6.0% of the team total, but didn’t contribute to the team’s sacks, tackles for loss, or touchdowns. Roman’s largest contributions on the defense were in tackles, fumble recoveries and interceptions, which makes sense given his role as strong safety.
Norfolk Seawolves -
Norfolk endured a much more disappointing year, resulting in a last place record of 1-13. Given their terrible record and point differential (-255 points) there would likely be a strong bias towards the opposing teams run totals, offering the Seawolves defenders much higher chances at tackles and a lower opportunity for interceptions and pass defenses. That said, they turned out last in points allowed (496), last in tackles (643), first in tackles for loss (43), fifth in forced fumbles (12), seventh in defensive fumble recoveries (4), tied for sixth in sacks (20), third in interceptions (15), tied for fifth in passes defensed (54), and tied for first in defensive touchdowns (3).
Within the Norfolk defensive unit, Harris was third in tackles (70) which accounted for 11% of the team total, tied for second in forced fumbles (2) which was 17% of the team total, tied for first in defensive fumble recoveries (1) which accounted for 25% of the team total, tied for first in interceptions (5) that accounted for 33% of the team total, third in passes defensed (9) which was 17% of the team total, and second in defensive touchdowns (1) which was 33% of the team total, but didn’t contribute to the defensive effort in tackles for loss or sacks. Harris’s largest contributions to the defense were tackles, forced and recovered fumbles, interceptions, passes defensed, and defensive touchdowns. In reality Harris was a very bright spot on a very bad defense, accumulating impressive passing related statistics despite the obvious bias towards running that was likely to occur.
Dallas Birddogs -
Similarly, but not quite as severe as Norfolk’s season, the Dallas team had quite the Ultimini hangover from Season 27, finishing with a second worst record of 5-9. Dallas did surrender the fifth most points (341) with a surprisingly positive points differential (+9) to further show what a weird season the team underwent, and argue that there was likely no bias towards running or passing by the opposing offenses, as games were likely to be very close in score (or massive blowouts that balanced out in the grand scheme of the season). The Dallas defensive unit was fifth in tackles (672), fifth in tackles for loss (33), seventh in forced fumbles (10), sixth in defensive fumble recoveries (5), second in sacks (32), fifth in interceptions (12), tied for fifth in passes defensed (54), and finally tied for third in defensive touchdowns (2).
With both Dallas safeties in the nomination pool for Safety of the Year it will be interesting to see how they each played within the confines of the defense and how their statistics related to each other. Maxwell’s ranked fifth in tackles (58) which accounted for 8.6% of the team total, tied for third in forced fumbles (1) which was 10% of the team total, tied for fourth in sacks (3) which accounted for 9.4% of the team total, tied for first in interceptions (3) which was 25% of the team total, third in passes defensed (8) which accounted for 15% of the team total, and first in defensive touchdowns (2) bringing in 100% for the team, however he did not contribute to the defense in tackles for loss. Maxwell was an all around contributor but excelled for the team in interceptions, pass defenses, and defensive touchdowns.
The less experienced of the Dallas duo, Severance put up the ninth most tackles (42) which accounted for 6.3% of the team total, tied for the third most in forced fumbles (1) which was 10% of the team total, tied for second in defensive fumble recoveries (1) which accounted for 20% of the team total, tied for seventh in sacks (1) which was 3.1% of the team total, tied for third in interceptions (2) which was 17% of the team total, and tied for fifth in passes defensed (3) which accounted for 5.6% of the team total, but he did not contribute in tackles for loss or defensive touchdowns. Severance’s strongest contributions came from his fumble recoveries and interceptions, but clearly was the less impactful of the two Dallas safeties due to lack of experience.
Minnesota Grey Ducks -
The Grey Ducks missed the playoffs in a strong North division, ending the season with a 7-7 record. Touting the stoutest defense, the Grey Ducks were first in points surrendered, giving up only 270 points for a significant positive point differential (+42). With the high point differential but even record, the Grey Ducks likely experienced some blowouts where there would probably be an increased bias towards the passing game, but given their record it was likely minimal and not enough to significantly affect the overall statistics of the players on the team. As a team, the Grey Ducks ended sixth in tackles (664), tied for sixth in tackles for loss (31), fourth in forced fumbles (17), fourth in defensive fumble recoveries (8), tied for third in sacks (31), first in interceptions (18), tied for second in passes defensed (79), and tied for first in safeties (1),
Compared with the rest of the Grey Duck defense, Price was tied for seventh in tackles (51) which was 7.7% of the team total, tied for second in forced fumbles (2) which accounted for 12% of the team total, tied for second in defensive fumble recoveries (1) which was 13% of the team total, sixth in sacks (2) which accounted for 6.5% of the team total, first in interceptions (5) which was 28% of the team total, second in passes defensed (15) which accounted for 19% of the team total, but didn’t accumulate any tackles for loss, safeties, or defensive touchdowns for the team. Price was a ballhawk for the Grey Ducks, putting up strong statistics in forced fumbles, defensive fumble recoveries, interceptions, and passes defensed.
Conclusions
From what I can tell Darius Severance either didn’t make the final ballot or received no votes during the run off (to reiterate, I do not understand the ballot file so someone with more knowledge of the process can speak to that issue), although really he was the weakest candidate for the award anyway. Which frankly makes sense, as he was the only rookie in the nominee pool and had to build up TPE during the season to reach the skill level all the other players on the ballot started the season at so it is inherently harder for Severance to put up the same stats as the other competitors. When narrowed down the the four experienced nominees, there again is one candidate who didn’t stand out as strongly among his own team, even though that team did have the best season. Romulus Roman certainly had a noteworthy season, but it’s hard to tell if it was a product of a defensive unit on a winning team, especially since he didn’t lead his team in any statistical category. With Roman eliminated from contention (which is also what happened in the balloting), that leaves three final candidates, Harris, Maxwell, and Price. Price had the most pass defenses and tied with Harris for the most interceptions of the group (which is even more impressive for Harris given the sheer amount of time his team was behind). Maxwell led the group in defensive touchdowns, sacks and performances of the week. Honestly I believe all three players are deserving of the award and it comes down to personal opinion on what stats are most important and who had the best season. So congratulations to all the nominees on a great season, and best of luck as they move on the to ISFL, who knows, maybe one of them will snag a Defensive Rookie of the Year award as well (assuming they don’t switch to the offense *cough* Cole Maxwell for Offensive Rookie of the Year *cough*).
Word Count: 4324
RE: S28 DSFL Safety of the Year Analysis - 124715 - 05-27-2021
Woah super cool article!