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+--- Thread: [OC] After adjusting Colby Jack's stats, removing outliers to project the future, (/showthread.php?tid=33298)
[OC] After adjusting Colby Jack's stats, removing outliers to project the future, - shadyshoelace - 07-04-2021
In the last season, Jack has a TD% of 6.67%. However, the league average last year was 4.6%. If you adjust his TD% to 5%, still above LA, he goes from throwing 44 TDs in his last 16 games to only 33.00. I'll be generous and give him 33.
Now, let's adjust his passer rating. It goes from 108.1 to only 102.6 by just adjusting his TD% to normally above average. Later on, I will adjust it further to take yards into account.
Next, we have to account for him passing more than league average. He has 660 pass attempts over 16 games. The LA is 38.6/game, which equals 618, around a 6.8% reduction. Jack also has a flukey 8.72 Y/A, which can be adjusted to 8 (still above LA) based on the league average of 7.5.
So we can estimate that over a 16 game season, his adjusted yardage is (6187.5)= 4944 yards.
Now, I will adjust his passer rating again based on these 16 game stats
- 4944 yards
- 618 attempts
- 413 completions (also adjusted)
His final 16 game adjusted stats:
- 4944 yards / 618 ATT / 413 CMP / 66.8% CMP (same) / 33 TD / 13 INT (same) / 8 Y/A / 100.1 RATE
It tells us that Jack's perceived success in the league is largely inflated by unsustainable, wildly outlier stats in his 16 games as perceived MVP talent. When you adjust for the future by bringing down his outlier stats, he regresses heavily to a slightly above average QB of S29 Boss Jr. tierdom.
RE: [OC] After adjusting Colby Jack's stats, removing outliers to project the future, - Rusfan - 07-04-2021
Seems legit.
Caliban 4 MVP
RE: [OC] After adjusting Colby Jack's stats, removing outliers to project the future, - shadyshoelace - 07-04-2021
(07-04-2021, 02:31 PM)Rusfan Wrote: Seems legit.
Caliban 4 MVP
In the last season, Caliban has a TD% of 3.31%. However, the league average last year was 4.6%. If you adjust his TD% to 2.5%, still below LA, he goes from throwing 24 TDs in his last 16 games to 18.1. I'll be generous and give him 18.
Now, let's adjust his passer rating. It goes from 91.4 to only 88.6 by just adjusting his TD% to normally above average. Later on, I will adjust it further to take yards into account.
Next, we have to account for him passing more than league average. He has 724 pass attempts over 16 games. The LA is 38.6/game, which equals 618, around a 17.2% reduction. Jack also has a flukey 7.95 Y/A, which can be adjusted to 7.6 (still above LA) based on the league average of 7.5.
So we can estimate that over a 16 game season, his adjusted yardage is (6187.5)= 4697 yards.
Now, I will adjust his passer rating again based on these 16 game stats
- 4697 yards
- 618 attempts
- 394 completions (also adjusted)
His final 16 game adjusted stats:
- 4697 yards / 618 ATT / 394 CMP / 63.8% CMP (same) / 18 TD / 14 INT (same) / 7.6 Y/A / 87.15 RATE
It tells us that Caliban's perceived success in the league is largely inflated by unsustainable, wildly outlier stats in his 16 games as perceived middle-of-the-road talent. When you adjust for the future by bringing down his outlier stats, he regresses heavily to a slightly below average QB of S29 Monty Jack tierdom.