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+---- Thread: *Who Won the Ultimus? (/showthread.php?tid=33448)
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*Who Won the Ultimus? - Modern_Duke - 07-07-2021
You ever see those graphs people post online, usually after a big comeback or collapse, usually involving the Atlanta Falcons, showing how likely each team was to win throughout the course of the game, showing just how quickly and extremely things went wrong?
![[Image: win-probability.jpg]](https://ftw.usatoday.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/90/2017/02/win-probability.jpg)
How do they figure that out? Where do those numbers come from? Well, I can tell you where you can get the numbers, a hard-to-find page on pro-football-reference where you can enter the info on any given situation and it spits out the offense's win probability and points that they can expect to score on the drive (https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/win_prob.cgi) which was the basis for this article. What I did was enter each play from the S29 Ultimus into that page and tracked the progress throughout the game. As for how PFR calculates these numbers?, I can't help you there. I am a little more familiar with the baseball version of this, which is based on every game state situation throughout the recorded history of the MLB. I would assume the idea is similar for football, but I'm not sure if that's actually the case because I'm sure there is less data available for each situation. There are only so many possible scenarios in baseball. There are far more in football, especially considering the clock. But either way, I put my faith in the numbers this thing spit out.
So how will this work? Let me give an example. Here is a play from the first quarter of the Ultimus. There is 10:49 left in the quarter, Berlin just got the ball back from New York after trading punts on the first 2 possessions. On 1st down, Danny King Jr. ran for 1 yard, setting up 2nd and long. Before the start of the play, the numbers show Berlin had a 55.5% chance of winning the game, and on this specific drive they are expected to score 1.795 points due to their good starting field position. But after King got stuffed on that first down run, Berlin is only expected to score 1.387 points, and their win probability has dropped to 54.3% Here is what I will show for that play:
1Q 10:49
NYS 0 BER 0
1st and 10 - BER - 43
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.445 - BER Win%: 0.555 - Ex. Points: 1.795
Play Result: Rush by King Jr., D. for 1 yds. Tackle by McDavid, L..
After Play: Win% Change: BER -0.012 - Ex. Points Change: -0.408
Allocation:
NYS: McDavid 0.012 / 0.408
BER: King Jr. -0.012 / -0.408
At the top you get the basic information about the game at the time, then the before and after effects of the play. Then what I've tried to do is allocate the change in the game situation to the specific players involved in the play. So since King's run resulted in that 1.2% drop in win rate, he gets assigned that -1.2% (similarly McDavid gets credit for making a +1.2% play) and we'll ideally see each player's cumulative impact on the game at the end of the day.
Make sense? No? Too bad, I'm getting started anyway
---
Pre-Game
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.500 - BER Win%: 0.500 - Ex. Points: 0.000
Berlin wins coin flip to receive the kickoff
After Play: Win % Change: BER +0.018 - Ex. Points Change: +0.607
Allocation:
NYS: Unallocated (Team) -0.018 / -0.607
BER: Unallocated (Team) +0.018 / +0.607
This is just a housekeeping item to give the first drive of the game a place to start. This is probably as a good spot as any to discuss kickoffs though. What I did for those is use a touchback as the base. So that's where the 0.607 expected points comes from, that's the expected points of a drive that would start at the Berlin 25 yard line. This way, expected points can be properly allocated for a good or bad kickoff return. Speaking of, let's get on with the opening kickoff.
1Q 15:00
NYS 0 BER 0
--- - BER - 18
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.482 - BER Win%: 0.518 - Ex. Points: 0.607
Play Result: Kickoff of 66 yards. Returned by King Jr., D. for 18 yards.
After Play: Win% Change: BER -0.017 - Ex. Points Change: -0.567
Allocation:
NYS: Smalls 0.017 / 0.567
BER: King Jr. -0.017 / -0.567
So since this return starts the Berlin drive at the 18 yard line rather than the 25, this play hurt the team, so Danny King Jr. takes the blame for reducing the team expected win percentage and expected points. Meanwhile Smalls gets credit for pinning them back deeper than expected. And just to be clear, kickoffs (and field goals, kinda) are the only places where I'm using some kind of baseline or expected number, because those are kind of weird plays. Everything else is based on the actual game states.
1Q 14:57
NYS 0 BER 0
1st and 10 - BER - 18
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.499 - BER Win%: 0.501 - Ex. Points: 0.040
Play Result: Rush by King Jr., D. for 3 yds. Tackle by Kāne-Maika'i, K..
After Play: Win% Change: BER +0.001 - Ex. Points Change: 0.036
Allocation:
NYS: Kane-Maikai -0.001 / -0.036
BER: King Jr. 0.001 / 0.036
The first offensive snap of the game barely moves the needle. And that makes sense to me, a 3.5 yard run on 1st and 10 is the most neutral play result I can think of.
1Q 14:18
NYS 0 BER 0
2nd and 6 - BER - 21
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.498 - BER Win%: 0.502 - Ex. Points: 0.076
Play Result: Pass by Kaepercolin, N., complete to King Jr., D. for 2 yds. Tackle by Winchester, H..
After Play: Win% Change: BER -0.014 - Ex. Points Change: -0.477
Allocation:
NYS: Winchester 0.014 / 0.477
BER: Kaepercolin -0.007 / -0.239 - King Jr. -0.007 / -0.239
With the first pass attempt of the game, you'll see that I have split the allocation for Berlin between Kapercolin and King Jr. "Who is responsible for a completed pass?" is basically a philosophical question, so I just kept it simple and will be doing a flat 50/50 split for QB/WR. As you can see, even though the pass was completed, the minimal gain actually hurt the team, so both Kaep and King get dinged.
1Q 13:31
NYS 0 BER 0
3rd and 4 - BER - 24
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.512 - BER Win%: 0.488 - Ex. Points: -0.401
Play Result: Rush by King Jr., D. for 1 yds. Tackle by Mongo ®, -..
After Play: Win% Change: BER -0.039 - Ex. Points Change: -1.299
Allocation:
NYS: Mongo 0.039 / 1.299
BER: King Jr. -0.039 / -1.299
Even before this short run, you'll see that Berlin's expected points number is actually negative for this drive. I think that's kind of interesting, as I guess that accounts for the possibility of a pick six or fumble return or punt return TD, but I'm surprised it's that far negative, especially after the play.
1Q 12:56
NYS 0 BER 0
4th and 2 - BER - 25
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.551 - BER Win%: 0.449 - Ex. Points: -1.700
Play Result: Punt by King, D. of 54 yards. Returned by Kingston, J. for -2 yards.
After Play: Win% Change: NYS -0.050 - Ex. Points Change: -1.660
Allocation:
NYS: Kingston -0.050 / -1.660
BER: King 0.050 / 1.660
I think I did punts correctly? Change of possession stuff and scoring plays were hard to wrap my head around, but also I might just be dumb.
1Q 12:47
NYS 0 BER 0
1st and 10 - NYS - 18
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.501 - BER Win%: 0.499 - Ex. Points: 0.040
Play Result: Pass by Howitzer, S., complete to Rogers ©, C. for 2 yds. Tackle by McMullet, B..
After Play: Win% Change: NYS -0.001 - Ex. Points Change: -0.033
Allocation:
NYS: Howitzer -0.001 / -0.017 - Rogers -0.001 / -0.017
BER: McMullet 0.001 / 0.033
1Q 12:04
NYS 0 BER 0
2nd and 7 - NYS - 21
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.500 - BER Win%: 0.500 - Ex. Points: 0.007
Play Result: Pass by Howitzer, S. to Kingston, J. falls incomplete.
After Play: Win% Change: NYS -0.024 - Ex. Points Change: -0.793
Allocation:
NYS: Howitzer -0.012 / -0.397 - Kingston -0.012 / -0.397
BER: Unallocated (Pass D) 0.024 / 0.793
Alright, so like I mentioned before, I'm giving the QB/WR a 50/50 split. But what about the defense? It's clear when a CB makes a tackle or gets a PD, but here the play by play data says incomplete. In theory I could re-watch the game to figure out who was covering Kingston on this play, but this is enough work as is. Instead, I am just allocating the credit to the Berlin Pass D as a whole
1Q 11:47
NYS 0 BER 0
3rd and 7 - NYS - 21
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.476 - BER Win%: 0.524 - Ex. Points: -0.786
Play Result: Pass by Howitzer, S., complete to Bawlls, B. for 0 yds. Tackle by McMullet, B..
After Play: Win% Change: NYS -0.038 - Ex. Points Change: -1.241
Allocation:
NYS: Howitzer -0.019 / -0.621 - Bawlls -0.019 / -0.621
BER: McMullet 0.038 / 1.241
1Q 11:20
NYS 0 BER 0
4th and 7 - NYS - 20
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.438 - BER Win%: 0.562 - Ex. Points: -2.027
Play Result: Punt by Smalls, D. of 33 yards. Returned by Hood ©, T. for -3 yards.
After Play: Win% Change: BER -0.007 - Ex. Points Change: -0.232
Allocation:
NYS: Smalls 0.007 / 0.232
BER: Hood -0.007 / -0.232
Again, change of possession stuff is weird, because I would expect this 33 yard punt (even with the bad return by Hood) that set up Berlin with great field position to be a negative play for NYS, but the numbers have it as a good play for NY somehow.
1Q 10:49
NYS 0 BER 0
1st and 10 - BER - 43
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.445 - BER Win%: 0.555 - Ex. Points: 1.795
Play Result: Rush by King Jr., D. for 1 yds. Tackle by McDavid, L..
After Play: Win% Change: BER -0.012 - Ex. Points Change: -0.408
Allocation:
NYS: McDavid 0.012 / 0.408
BER: King Jr. -0.012 / -0.408
1Q 10:13
NYS 0 BER 0
2nd and 9 - BER - 44
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.457 - BER Win%: 0.543 - Ex. Points: 1.387
Play Result: Pass by Kaepercolin, N. to Skiuuup, C. falls incomplete.
After Play: Win% Change: BER -0.022 - Ex. Points Change: -0.692
Allocation:
NYS: Unallocated (Pass D) 0.022 / 0.692
BER: Kaepercolin -0.011 / -0.346 - Skiuuup -0.011 / -0.346
1Q 10:04
NYS 0 BER 0
3rd and 9 - BER - 44
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.479 - BER Win%: 0.521 - Ex. Points: 0.695
Play Result: Pass by Kaepercolin, N., complete to King Jr., D. for 6 yds. Tackle by Roberts ©, B..
After Play: Win% Change: BER -0.021 - Ex. Points Change: -0.692
Allocation:
NYS: Roberts 0.021 / 0.692
BER: Kaepercolin -0.011 / -0.346 - King Jr. -0.011 / -0.346
1Q 9:17
NYS 0 BER 0
4th and 2 - NYS - 49
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.500 - BER Win%: 0.500 - Ex. Points: 0.003
Play Result: Pass by Kaepercolin, N., complete to Skiuuup, C. for 29 yds. Tackle by Quakstak, D..
After Play: Win% Change: BER +0.133 - Ex. Points Change: 4.303
Allocation:
NYS: Quakstack -0.133 / -4.303
BER: Kaepercolin 0.067 / 2.152 - Skiuuup 0.067 / 2.152
Great call by Berlin to go for it here, and it paid off handsomely. This is the first big play of the game and you can see the big swing in expected points from the conversion, plus getting into the red zone, plus keeping possession of course.
1Q 8:22
NYS 0 BER 0
1st and 10 - NYS - 19
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.367 - BER Win%: 0.633 - Ex. Points: 4.306
Play Result: Kaepercolin, N. is SACKED by Jack Banks - LB for -6 yds.
After Play: Win% Change: BER -0.040 - Ex. Points Change: -1.356
Allocation:
NYS: Banks 0.040 / 1.356
BER: Offensive Line -0.040 / -1.356
One could argue that sacks are partly the quarterback's fault, but I just assigned all blame to the offensive line.
1Q 7:33
NYS 0 BER 0
2nd and 16 - NYS - 25
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.407 - BER Win%: 0.593 - Ex. Points: 2.950
Play Result: Pass by Kaepercolin, N. to Skiuuup, C. is incomplete. Broken up by Roberts ©, B..
After Play: Win% Change: BER -0.021 - Ex. Points Change: -0.671
Allocation:
NYS: Roberts 0.021 / 0.671
BER: Kaepercolin -0.011 / -0.336 - Skiuuup -0.011 / -0.336
1Q 7:23
NYS 0 BER 0
3rd and 16 - NYS - 25
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.428 - BER Win%: 0.572 - Ex. Points: 2.279
Play Result: Pass by Kaepercolin, N., complete to King Jr., D. for 7 yds. Tackle by Mendoza, C..
After Play: Win% Change: BER +0.000 - Ex. Points Change: -0.030
Allocation:
NYS: Mendoza 0.000 / 0.030
BER: Kaepercolin 0.000 / -0.015 - King Jr. 0.000 / -0.015
1Q 6:32
NYS 0 BER 0
4th and 8 - NYS - 18
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.428 - BER Win%: 0.572 - Ex. Points: 2.249
Play Result: 35 yard FG by King, D. is good.
After Play: Win% Change: NYS -0.004 - Ex. Points Change: -0.144
Allocation:
NYS: Unallocated (Special Teams) -0.004 / -0.144
BER: King 0.008 / 0.210 - Unallocated (Team) -0.004 / -0.066
Field goals are another weird one, as just applying everything to the kicker doesn't really make sense as the expected points number will account for going for it rather than kicking the field goal (there is a better example of this later). So what I did was estimate the expected points from kicking the field goal. ISFL kickers were 117/125 from 30-39 yards this season, so I used 93% for a 35 yarder, meaning the field goal would result in 2.79 points on average. Since the kick was made and actually resulted in 3 points, King gets credit for the 0.21 from the make. The remaining -0.066 (I suppose representing the decision to not go for it) is just assigned to the team as a whole.
1Q 6:32
NYS 0 BER 3
--- - NYS - 25
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.424 - BER Win%: 0.576 - Ex. Points: 0.607
Play Result: Kickoff of 61 yards. Returned by Mendoza, C. for 21 yards.
After Play: Win% Change: NYS +0.000 - Ex. Points Change: 0.000
Allocation:
NYS: Mendoza 0.000 / 0.000
BER: King 0.000 / 0.000
As mentioned earlier, since the 25 is my baseline, this return to the 25 is a net zero.
1Q 6:26
NYS 0 BER 3
1st and 10 - NYS - 25
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.424 - BER Win%: 0.576 - Ex. Points: 0.607
Play Result: Pass by Howitzer, S., complete to Kingston, J. for 3 yds. Tackle by Jones, S..
After Play: Win% Change: NYS -0.003 - Ex. Points Change: -0.069
Allocation:
NYS: Howitzer -0.002 / -0.035 - Kingston -0.002 / -0.035
BER: Jones 0.003 / 0.069
1Q 5:40
NYS 0 BER 3
2nd and 6 - NYS - 28
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.421 - BER Win%: 0.579 - Ex. Points: 0.538
Play Result: Howitzer, S. is SACKED by Derred de Ville - LB for -6 yds.
After Play: Win% Change: NYS -0.047 - Ex. Points Change: -1.493
Allocation:
NYS: Offensive Line -0.047 / -1.493
BER: de Ville 0.047 / 1.493
1Q 4:49
NYS 0 BER 3
3rd and 12 - NYS - 22
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.374 - BER Win%: 0.626 - Ex. Points: -0.955
Play Result: New York Penalty on Prince ®, B.: False Start.
After Play: Win% Change: NYS -0.028 - Ex. Points Change: -0.894
Allocation:
NYS: Prince -0.028 / -0.894
BER: Unallocated (Team) 0.028 / 0.894
Prince obviously gets the negative for his penalty, but for Berlin there's no player or group that deserves credit for causing a penalty so its just assigned to the team.
1Q 4:49
NYS 0 BER 3
3rd and 17 - NYS - 17
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.346 - BER Win%: 0.654 - Ex. Points: -1.849
Play Result: Pass by Howitzer, S., complete to Speedman, T. for 9 yds. Tackle by Lenkins, J..
After Play: Win% Change: NYS +0.006 - Ex. Points Change: 0.215
Allocation:
NYS: Howitzer 0.003 / 0.108 - Speedman 0.003 / 0.108
BER: Lenkins -0.006 / -0.215
1Q 4:04
NYS 0 BER 3
4th and 8 - NYS - 26
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.352 - BER Win%: 0.648 - Ex. Points: -1.634
Play Result: Punt by Smalls, D. of 45 yards. Returned by Hood ©, T. for 2 yards.
After Play: Win% Change: BER -0.021 - Ex. Points Change: -0.697
Allocation:
NYS: Smalls 0.021 / 0.697
BER: Hood -0.021 / -0.697
1Q 3:53
NYS 0 BER 3
1st and 10 - BER - 30
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.373 - BER Win%: 0.627 - Ex. Points: 0.937
Play Result: Rush by King Jr., D. for 3 yds. Tackle by Van Sanzo, B..
After Play: Win% Change: BER -0.004 - Ex. Points Change: -0.138
Allocation:
NYS: Van Sanzo 0.004 / 0.138
BER: King Jr. -0.004 / -0.138
1Q 3:21
NYS 0 BER 3
2nd and 7 - BER - 33
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.377 - BER Win%: 0.623 - Ex. Points: 0.799
Play Result: Rush by King Jr., D. for 3 yds. Tackle by Banks, J..
After Play: Win% Change: BER -0.004 - Ex. Points Change: -0.170
Allocation:
NYS: Banks 0.004 / 0.170
BER: King Jr. -0.004 / -0.170
1Q 2:47
NYS 0 BER 3
3rd and 3 - BER - 37
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.381 - BER Win%: 0.619 - Ex. Points: 0.629
Play Result: Pass by Kaepercolin, N. to Achtfünf, -. is incomplete. Broken up by Quakstak, D..
After Play: Win% Change: BER -0.050 - Ex. Points Change: -1.543
Allocation:
NYS: Quakstak 0.050 / 1.543
BER: Kaepercolin -0.025 / -0.772 - Achtfunf -0.025 / -0.772
One thing I questioned was whether I should keep the same QB/WR split for a pass that was broken up. Was that really the WR's fault? In reality I suppose not, but then again, without getting too meta, if PD calculation in DDSPF 21 is the same as it was in 16 then the answer is yes. For simplicity's sake, I just left it 50/50.
1Q 2:36
NYS 0 BER 3
4th and 3 - BER - 37
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.431 - BER Win%: 0.569 - Ex. Points: -0.914
Play Result: Punt by King, D. of 36 yards. Returned by Kingston, J. for 18 yards.
After Play: Win% Change: NYS +0.033 - Ex. Points Change: 1.013
Allocation:
NYS: Kingston 0.033 / 1.013
BER: King -0.033 / -1.013
1Q 2:27
NYS 0 BER 3
1st and 10 - NYS - 45
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.464 - BER Win%: 0.536 - Ex. Points: 1.927
Play Result: Rush by Prince ®, B. for 41 yds. Tackle by de Ville, D..
After Play: Win% Change: NYS +0.091 - Ex. Points Change: 2.719
Allocation:
NYS: Prince 0.091 / 2.719
BER: Unallocated (Run D) -0.091 / -2.719
Run plays have been pretty straight forward, offensive allocation goes to the running back, defensive allocation goes to the tackler. However, for this long run I don't feel comfortable giving all the blame to de Ville just because he made the downfield tackle. It takes a village to allow a 41 yard run, so the allocation goes to the run defense as a whole.
1Q 1:42
NYS 0 BER 3
1st and 10 - BER - 14
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.555 - BER Win%: 0.445 - Ex. Points: 4.646
Play Result: Rush by Rogers ©, C. for 2 yds. Tackle by Schell, A..
After Play: Win% Change: NYS -0.004 - Ex. Points Change: -0.129
Allocation:
NYS: Rogers -0.004 / -0.129
BER: Schell 0.004 / 0.129
1Q 1:34
NYS 0 BER 3
2nd and 7 - BER - 11
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.551 - BER Win%: 0.449 - Ex. Points: 4.517
Play Result: Pass by Howitzer, S. to Snyder, S. falls incomplete.
After Play: Win% Change: NYS -0.030 - Ex. Points Change: -0.902
Allocation:
NYS: Howitzer -0.015 / -0.451 - Snyder -0.015 / -0.451
BER: Unallocated (Pass D) 0.030 / 0.902
1Q 1:22
NYS 0 BER 3
3rd and 7 - BER - 11
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.521 - BER Win%: 0.479 - Ex. Points: 3.615
Play Result: Pass by Howitzer, S., complete to Kingston, J. for 11 yds. TOUCHDOWN! (Smalls kick good)
After Play: Win% Change: BER -0.092 - Ex. Points Change: -2.778
Allocation:
NYS: Howitzer 0.046 / 1.693 - Kingston 0.046 / 1.693 - Unallocated (Team) 0.000 / -0.607
BER: Unallocated (Pass D) -0.092 / -3.385 - Unallocated (Team) 0.000 / 0.607
The expected point number there may look weird (only 2.8 points for scoring a touchdown?) but it makes more sense when broken out as 7 points (actual result of play) - 3.615 (expected points at start of play) + (-0.607) (expected points at end of play [start of Berlin drive]). Or maybe that only makes sense to me because I've been looking at this for too long.
1Q 1:09
NYS 7 BER 3
--- - BER - 26
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.613 - BER Win%: 0.387 - Ex. Points: 0.607
Play Result: Kickoff of 67 yards. Returned by King Jr., D. for 26 yards.
After Play: Win% Change: BER +0.002 - Ex. Points Change: 0.066
Allocation:
NYS: Smalls -0.002 / -0.066
BER: King Jr. 0.002 / 0.066
1Q 0:59
NYS 7 BER 3
1st and 10 - BER - 26
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.611 - BER Win%: 0.389 - Ex. Points: 0.673
Play Result: Rush by King Jr., D. for 5 yds. Tackle by Banks, J..
After Play: Win% Change: BER +0.006 - Ex. Points Change: 0.201
Allocation:
NYS: Banks -0.006 / -0.201
BER: King Jr. 0.006 / 0.201
1Q 0:50
NYS 7 BER 3
2nd and 4 - BER - 31
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.605 - BER Win%: 0.395 - Ex. Points: 0.874
Play Result: Play nullified by New York Penalty on Otawara, M.: Tripping. Automatic
After Play: Win% Change: BER +0.026 - Ex. Points Change: 0.789
Allocation:
NYS: Otawara -0.026 / -0.789
BER: Unallocated (Team) 0.026 / 0.789
1Q 0:48
NYS 7 BER 3
1st and 10 - BER - 41
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.579 - BER Win%: 0.421 - Ex. Points: 1.663
Play Result: Rush by King Jr., D. for a short gain. Tackle by Mongo ®, -..
After Play: Win% Change: BER -0.013 - Ex. Points Change: -0.408
Allocation:
NYS: Mongo 0.013 / 0.408
BER: King Jr. -0.013 / -0.408
1Q 0:42
NYS 7 BER 3
2nd and 9 - BER - 42
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.592 - BER Win%: 0.408 - Ex. Points: 1.255
Play Result: Pass by Kaepercolin, N., complete to Boyd, C. for 3 yds. Tackle by Winchester, H..
After Play: Win% Change: BER -0.011 - Ex. Points Change: -0.296
Allocation:
NYS: Winchester 0.011 / 0.296
BER: Kaepercolin -0.005 / -0.148 - Boyd -0.005 / -0.148
1Q 0:18
NYS 7 BER 3
3rd and 6 - BER - 45
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.603 - BER Win%: 0.397 - Ex. Points: 0.959
Play Result: Pass by Kaepercolin, N., to Hood ©, T..INTERCEPTION by Mendoza, C. at the NYS - 46 yard line and returned for 54 yards. TOUCHDOWN!(Smalls kick good)
After Play: Win% Change: BER -0.211 - Ex. Points Change: -7.352
Allocation:
NYS: Mendoza 0.211 / 7.959 - Unallocated (Team) 0.000 / -0.607
BER: Kaepercolin -0.211 / -7.959 - Unallocated (Team) 0.000 / 0.607
I supposes it's not too much of a spoiler to tell you now that this was the biggest play of the game by both win percentage and expected point difference. Even though it kind of contradicts what I was saying about offensive allocation on PDs, I decided to give full blame to Kaepercolin for the interception.
1Q 0:07
NYS 14 BER 3
--- - BER - 27
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.814 - BER Win%: 0.186 - Ex. Points: 0.607
Play Result: Kickoff of 67 yards. Returned by King Jr., D. for 27 yards.
After Play: Win% Change: BER +0.003 - Ex. Points Change: 0.132
Allocation:
NYS: Smalls -0.003 / -0.132
BER: King Jr. 0.003 / 0.132
2Q 15:00
NYS 14 BER 3
1st and 10 - BER - 27
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.811 - BER Win%: 0.189 - Ex. Points: 0.739
Play Result: Pass by Kaepercolin, N. to Skiuuup, C. is incomplete. Broken up by Quakstak, D..
After Play: Win% Change: BER -0.013 - Ex. Points Change: -0.543
Allocation:
NYS: Quakstak 0.013 / 0.543
BER: Kaepercolin -0.007 / -0.272 - Skiuuup -0.007 / -0.272
2Q 14:46
NYS 14 BER 3
2nd and 10 - BER - 27
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.824 - BER Win%: 0.176 - Ex. Points: 0.196
Play Result: Pass by Kaepercolin, N., complete to Boyd, C. for 14 yds. Tackle by Griddle, M..
After Play: Win% Change: BER +0.035 - Ex. Points Change: 1.533
Allocation:
NYS: Griddle -0.035 / -1.533
BER: Kaepercolin 0.018 / 0.766 - Boyd 0.018 / 0.766
2Q 13:57
NYS 14 BER 3
1st and 10 - BER - 42
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.789 - BER Win%: 0.211 - Ex. Points: 1.729
Play Result: Rush by King Jr., D. for 1 yds. Tackle by Winchester, H..
After Play: Win% Change: BER -0.011 - Ex. Points Change: -0.339
Allocation:
NYS: Winchester 0.011 / 0.339
BER: King Jr. -0.011 / -0.339
2Q 13:20
NYS 14 BER 3
2nd and 8 - BER - 43
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.800 - BER Win%: 0.200 - Ex. Points: 1.390
Play Result: Pass by Kaepercolin, N. to Yaki, T. is incomplete. Broken up by Griddle, M..
After Play: Win% Change: BER -0.017 - Ex. Points Change: -0.695
Allocation:
NYS: Griddle 0.017 / 0.695
BER: Kaepercolin -0.008 / -0.348 - Yaki -0.008 / -0.348
2Q 13:00
NYS 14 BER 3
3rd and 8 - BER - 43
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.817 - BER Win%: 0.183 - Ex. Points: 0.695
Play Result: Pass by Kaepercolin, N. to Achtfünf, -. is incomplete. Broken up by Quakstak, D..
After Play: Win% Change: BER -0.028 - Ex. Points Change: -1.216
Allocation:
NYS: Quakstak 0.028 / 1.216
BER: Kaepercolin -0.014 / -0.608 - Achtfunf -0.014 / -0.608
2Q 12:46
NYS 14 BER 3
4th and 8 - BER - 43
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.845 - BER Win%: 0.155 - Ex. Points: -0.521
Play Result: Punt by King, D. of 32 yards. Returned by Kingston, J. for 0 yards.
After Play: Win% Change: NYS +0.000 - Ex. Points Change: 0.020
Allocation:
NYS: Kingston 0.000 / 0.020
BER: King 0.000 / -0.020
2Q 12:38
NYS 14 BER 3
1st and 10 - NYS - 24
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.845 - BER Win%: 0.155 - Ex. Points: 0.541
Play Result: Pass by Howitzer, S., complete to Kingston, J. for 7 yds. Tackle by Jones, S..
After Play: Win% Change: NYS +0.014 - Ex. Points Change: 0.537
Allocation:
NYS: Howitzer 0.007 / 0.269 - Kingston 0.007 / 0.269
BER: Jones -0.014 / -0.537
2Q 11:50
NYS 14 BER 3
2nd and 2 - NYS - 32
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.859 - BER Win%: 0.141 - Ex. Points: 1.078
Play Result: Rush by Prince ®, B. for 62 yds. Tackle by de Ville, D..
After Play: Win% Change: NYS +0.079 - Ex. Points Change: 4.977
Allocation:
NYS: Prince 0.079 / 4.977
BER: Unallocated (Run D) -0.079 / -4.977
Same thing as the previous long run. I wouldn't say all 62 yards are de Ville's fault.
2Q 10:49
NYS 14 BER 3
1st and Goal - BER - 5
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.938 - BER Win%: 0.062 - Ex. Points: 6.055
Play Result: Pass by Howitzer, S. to Kingston, J. falls incomplete.
After Play: Win% Change: NYS -0.011 - Ex. Points Change: -0.910
Allocation:
NYS: Howitzer -0.005 / -0.455 - Kingston -0.005 / -0.455
BER: Unallocated (Pass D) 0.011 / 0.910
2Q 10:42
NYS 14 BER 3
2nd and Goal - BER - 5
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.927 - BER Win%: 0.073 - Ex. Points: 5.145
Play Result: Pass by Howitzer, S. to Kingston, J. is incomplete. Broken up by Jones, S..
After Play: Win% Change: NYS -0.011 - Ex. Points Change: -0.880
Allocation:
NYS: Howitzer -0.006 / -0.440 - Kingston -0.006 / -0.440
BER: Jones 0.011 / 0.880
2Q 10:31
NYS 14 BER 3
3rd and Goal - BER - 5
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.916 - BER Win%: 0.084 - Ex. Points: 4.265
Play Result: Pass by Howitzer, S. to Speedman, T. falls incomplete.
After Play: Win% Change: NYS -0.018 - Ex. Points Change: -1.258
Allocation:
NYS: Howitzer -0.009 / -0.629 - Speedman -0.009 / -0.629
BER: Unallocated (Pass D) 0.018 / 1.258
2Q 10:19
NYS 14 BER 3
4th and Goal - BER - 5
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.898 - BER Win%: 0.102 - Ex. Points: 3.007
Play Result: 22 yard FG by Smalls, D. is good.
After Play: Win% Change: BER +0.010 - Ex. Points Change: 0.614
Allocation:
NYS: Smalls 0.010 / 0.207 - Unallocated (Team) -0.020 / -0.821
BER: Unallocated (Team) 0.010 / 0.614
Here is the case where it became clear that I shouldn't just apply everything to the kicker. The expected points was 3.007 and kicking a field goal will of course result in less than that, and giving negative points for a made kick didn't seem right.
2Q 10:19
NYS 17 BER 3
--- - BER - 30
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.888 - BER Win%: 0.112 - Ex. Points: 0.607
Play Result: Kickoff of 71 yards. Returned by Hood ©, T. for 30 yards.
After Play: Win% Change: BER +0.006 - Ex. Points Change: 0.330
Allocation:
NYS: Smalls -0.006 / -0.330
BER: Hood 0.006 / 0.330
2Q 10:13
NYS 17 BER 3
1st and 10 - BER - 30
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.882 - BER Win%: 0.118 - Ex. Points: 0.937
Play Result: Rush by King Jr., D. for 3 yds. Tackle by Winchester, H..
After Play: Win% Change: BER -0.004 - Ex. Points Change: -0.138
Allocation:
NYS: Winchester 0.004 / 0.138
BER: King Jr. -0.004 / -0.138
2Q 9:36
NYS 17 BER 3
2nd and 7 - BER - 33
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.886 - BER Win%: 0.114 - Ex. Points: 0.799
Play Result: Pass by Kaepercolin, N., complete to Boyd, C. for 11 yds. Tackle by Roberts ©, B..
After Play: Win% Change: BER +0.018 - Ex. Points Change: 1.128
Allocation:
NYS: Roberts -0.018 / -1.128
BER: Kaepercolin 0.009 / 0.564 - Boyd 0.009 / 0.564
2Q 8:47
NYS 17 BER 3
1st and 10 - BER - 45
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.868 - BER Win%: 0.132 - Ex. Points: 1.927
Play Result: Rush by King Jr., D. for 54 yds. Tackle by Banks, J..
After Play: Win% Change: BER +0.123 - Ex. Points Change: 5.044
Allocation:
NYS: Unallocated (Run D) -0.123 / -5.044
BER: King Jr. 0.123 / 5.044
2Q 7:49
NYS 17 BER 3
1st and Goal - NYS - 1
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.745 - BER Win%: 0.255 - Ex. Points: 6.971
Play Result: Pass by Kaepercolin, N. to Skiuuup, C. falls incomplete.
After Play: Win% Change: BER -0.031 - Ex. Points Change: -1.062
Allocation:
NYS: Unallocated (Pass D) 0.031 / 1.062
BER: Kaepercolin -0.016 / -0.531 - Skiuuup -0.016 / -0.531
2Q 7:37
NYS 17 BER 3
2nd and Goal - NYS - 1
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.776 - BER Win%: 0.224 - Ex. Points: 5.909
Play Result: Pass by Kaepercolin, N., complete to King Jr., D. for 1 yds. TOUCHDOWN! (King kick good)
After Play: Win% Change: NYS -0.013 - Ex. Points Change: -0.484
Allocation:
NYS: Unallocated (Pass D) -0.013 / -1.091 - Unallocated (Team) 0.000 / 0.607
BER: Kaepercolin 0.007 / 0.546 - King Jr. 0.007 / 0.546 - Unallocated (Team) 0.000 / -0.607
2Q 7:26
NYS 17 BER 10
--- - NYS - 14
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.763 - BER Win%: 0.237 - Ex. Points: 0.607
Play Result: Kickoff of 68 yards. Returned by Kingston, J. for 14 yards.
After Play: Win% Change: NYS -0.026 - Ex. Points Change: -0.883
Allocation:
NYS: Kingston -0.026 / -0.883
BER: King 0.026 / 0.883
2Q 7:21
NYS 17 BER 10
1st and 10 - NYS - 14
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.737 - BER Win%: 0.263 - Ex. Points: -0.276
Play Result: Rush by Prince ®, B. for 8 yds. Tackle by Wildstar, D..
After Play: Win% Change: NYS +0.023 - Ex. Points Change: 0.694
Allocation:
NYS: Prince 0.023 / 0.694
BER: Wildstar -0.023 / -0.694
2Q 6:39
NYS 17 BER 10
2nd and 2 - NYS - 22
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.760 - BER Win%: 0.240 - Ex. Points: 0.418
Play Result: Rush by Prince ®, B. for a short gain. Tackle by Schell, A..
After Play: Win% Change: NYS -0.022 - Ex. Points Change: -0.768
Allocation:
NYS: Prince -0.022 / -0.768
BER: Schell 0.022 / 0.768
Unfortunately for Berlin, this was really the high point of the attempted comeback. New York converts the first down on the next play and goes to make it another 2 score game and never relinquishes the lead.
2Q 6:1
NYS 17 BER 10
3rd and 1 - NYS - 22
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.738 - BER Win%: 0.262 - Ex. Points: -0.350
Play Result: Pass by Howitzer, S., complete to Speedman, T. for 5 yds. Tackle by McMullet, B..
After Play: Win% Change: NYS +0.035 - Ex. Points Change: 1.089
Allocation:
NYS: Howitzer 0.018 / 0.545 - Speedman 0.018 / 0.545
BER: McMullet -0.035 / -1.089
2Q 5:17
NYS 17 BER 10
1st and 10 - NYS - 27
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.773 - BER Win%: 0.227 - Ex. Points: 0.739
Play Result: Pass by Howitzer, S., complete to Snyder, S. for 10 yds. Tackle by de Ville, D..
After Play: Win% Change: NYS +0.022 - Ex. Points Change: 0.660
Allocation:
NYS: Howitzer 0.011 / 0.330 - Snyder 0.011 / 0.330
BER: de Ville -0.022 / -0.660
2Q 4:28
NYS 17 BER 10
1st and 10 - NYS - 37
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.795 - BER Win%: 0.205 - Ex. Points: 1.399
Play Result: Pass by Howitzer, S., complete to Bawlls, B. for 9 yds. Tackle by de Ville, D..
After Play: Win% Change: NYS +0.022 - Ex. Points Change: 0.738
Allocation:
NYS: Howitzer 0.011 / 0.369 - Bawlls 0.011 / 0.369
BER: de Ville -0.022 / -0.738
2Q 3:42
NYS 17 BER 10
2nd and inches - NYS - 47
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.817 - BER Win%: 0.183 - Ex. Points: 2.137
Play Result: Pass by Howitzer, S., complete to Speedman, T. for 6 yds. Tackle by Lenkins, J..
After Play: Win% Change: NYS +0.011 - Ex. Points Change: 0.318
Allocation:
NYS: Howitzer 0.006 / 0.159 - Speedman 0.006 / 0.159
BER: Lenkins -0.011 / -0.318
2Q 3:01
NYS 17 BER 10
1st and 10 - BER - 47
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.828 - BER Win%: 0.172 - Ex. Points: 2.455
Play Result: Rush by Prince ®, B. for 4 yds. Tackle by McMullet, B..
After Play: Win% Change: NYS +0.002 - Ex. Points Change: -0.003
Allocation:
NYS: Prince 0.002 / -0.003
BER: McMullet -0.002 / 0.003
2Q 2:27
NYS 17 BER 10
2nd and 6 - BER - 43
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.830 - BER Win%: 0.170 - Ex. Points: 2.452
Play Result: Rush by Rogers ©, C. for 7 yds. Tackle by de Ville, D..
After Play: Win% Change: NYS +0.021 - Ex. Points Change: 0.795
Allocation:
NYS: Rogers 0.021 / 0.795
BER: de Ville -0.021 / -0.795
2Q 2:00
NYS 17 BER 10
1st and 10 - BER - 35
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.851 - BER Win%: 0.149 - Ex. Points: 3.247
Play Result: Rush by Rogers ©, C. for 2 yds. Tackle by McMullet, B..
After Play: Win% Change: NYS -0.004 - Ex. Points Change: -0.204
Allocation:
NYS: Rogers -0.004 / -0.204
BER: McMullet 0.004 / 0.204
2Q 1:48
NYS 17 BER 10
2nd and 7 - BER - 33
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.847 - BER Win%: 0.153 - Ex. Points: 3.043
Play Result: Rush by Rogers ©, C. for 11 yds. Tackle by Shields, T.. Timeout called by NYS.
After Play: Win% Change: NYS +0.026 - Ex. Points Change: 1.128
Allocation:
NYS: Rogers 0.026 / 1.128
BER: Shields -0.026 / -1.128
2Q 1:40
NYS 17 BER 10
1st and 10 - BER - 21
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.873 - BER Win%: 0.127 - Ex. Points: 4.171
Play Result: Rush by Rogers ©, C. for 5 yds. Tackle by Steel, H..Timeout called by NYS.
After Play: Win% Change: NYS +0.005 - Ex. Points Change: 0.200
Allocation:
NYS: Rogers 0.005 / 0.200
BER: Steel -0.005 / -0.200
2Q 1:37
NYS 17 BER 10
2nd and 5 - BER - 16
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.878 - BER Win%: 0.122 - Ex. Points: 4.371
Play Result: Pass by Howitzer, S., complete to Speedman, T. for 11 yds.
After Play: Win% Change: NYS +0.032 - Ex. Points Change: 1.684
Allocation:
NYS: Howitzer 0.016 / 0.842 - Speedman 0.016 / 0.842
BER: Speedman -0.032 / -1.684
2Q 1:29
NYS 17 BER 10
1st and Goal - BER - 5
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.910 - BER Win%: 0.090 - Ex. Points: 6.055
Play Result: Rush by Rogers ©, C. for 3 yds. Tackle by de Ville, D.. Timeout called by NYS.
After Play: Win% Change: NYS -0.003 - Ex. Points Change: -0.146
Allocation:
NYS: Rogers -0.003 / -0.146
BER: de Ville 0.003 / 0.146
2Q 1:24
NYS 17 BER 10
2nd and Goal - BER - 1
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.907 - BER Win%: 0.093 - Ex. Points: 5.909
Play Result: Rush by Rogers ©, C. for 1 yds. Tackle by Miller II, C..
After Play: Win% Change: NYS -0.012 - Ex. Points Change: -0.736
Allocation:
NYS: Rogers -0.012 / -0.736
BER: Miller II 0.012 / 0.736
2Q 1:13
NYS 17 BER 10
3rd and Goal - BER - 1
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.895 - BER Win%: 0.105 - Ex. Points: 5.173
Play Result: Rush by Brandon Prince ® for 1 yds. TOUCHDOWN! (Smalls kick good)
After Play: Win% Change: BER -0.021 - Ex. Points Change: -1.220
Allocation:
NYS: Prince 0.021 / 1.827 - Unallocated (Team) 0.000 / -0.607
BER: Unallocated (Run D) -0.021 / -1.827 - Unallocated (Team) 0.000 / 0.607
Just an impressive drive by New York. 15 plays, 86 yards, every play resulted in positive yardage, and they took 6 minutes off the clock.
2Q 1:12
NYS 24 BER 10
1st and 10 - BER - 25
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.916 - BER Win%: 0.084 - Ex. Points: 0.607
Play Result: Kickoff by Smalls, D. through the back of the endzone. Touchback.
After Play: Win% Change: BER +0.000 - Ex. Points Change: 0.000
Allocation:
NYS: Smalls 0.000 / 0.000
BER: Unallocated (Special Teams) 0.000 / 0.000
2Q 1:12
NYS 24 BER 10
1st and 10 - BER - 25
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.916 - BER Win%: 0.084 - Ex. Points: 0.607
Play Result: Pass by Kaepercolin, N. to Skiuuup, C. is incomplete. Broken up by Quakstak, D..
After Play: Win% Change: BER -0.009 - Ex. Points Change: -0.543
Allocation:
NYS: Quakstak 0.009 / 0.543
BER: Kaepercolin -0.005 / -0.272 - Skiuuup -0.005 / -0.272
2Q 1:6
NYS 24 BER 10
2nd and 10 - BER - 25
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.925 - BER Win%: 0.075 - Ex. Points: 0.064
Play Result: Kaepercolin, N. is SACKED by Ke'oke'o Kāne-Maika'i - DE for -11 yds.
After Play: Win% Change: BER -0.032 - Ex. Points Change: -2.701
Allocation:
NYS: Kane-Maikai 0.032 / 2.701
BER: Offensive Line -0.032 / -2.701
2Q 0:53
NYS 24 BER 10
3rd and 21 - BER - 13
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.957 - BER Win%: 0.043 - Ex. Points: -2.637
Play Result: Pass by Kaepercolin, N., complete to Boyd, C. for 4 yds. Tackle by Maple, D..
After Play: Win% Change: BER +0.003 - Ex. Points Change: 0.396
Allocation:
NYS: Maple -0.003 / -0.396
BER: Kaepercolin 0.002 / 0.198 - Boyd 0.002 / 0.198
2Q 0:44
NYS 24 BER 10
4th and 16 - BER - 18
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.954 - BER Win%: 0.046 - Ex. Points: -2.241
Play Result: Punt by King, D. of 54 yards No return.
After Play: Win% Change: NYS -0.017 - Ex. Points Change: -1.502
Allocation:
NYS: Unallocated (Special Teams) -0.017 / -1.502
BER: King 0.017 / 1.502
2Q 0:35
NYS 24 BER 10
1st and 10 - NYS - 27
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.937 - BER Win%: 0.063 - Ex. Points: 0.739
Play Result: Rush by Prince ®, B. for a short gain. Tackle by Miller II, C..
After Play: Win% Change: NYS -0.004 - Ex. Points Change: -0.408
Allocation:
NYS: Prince -0.004 / -0.408
BER: Miller II 0.004 / 0.408
2Q 0:23
NYS 24 BER 10
2nd and 9 - NYS - 28
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.933 - BER Win%: 0.067 - Ex. Points: 0.331
Play Result: Rush by Prince ®, B. for a short gain. Tackle by Miller II, C..
After Play: Win% Change: NYS -0.007 - Ex. Points Change: -0.560
Allocation:
NYS: Prince -0.007 / -0.560
BER: Miller II 0.007 / 0.560
2Q 0:03
NYS 24 BER 10
3rd and 8 - NYS - 29
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.926 - BER Win%: 0.074 - Ex. Points: -0.229
Play Result: Rush by Prince ®, B. for 4 yds. Tackle by Steel, H..
After Play: Win% Change: NYS +0.012 - Ex. Points Change: 0.836
Allocation:
NYS: Prince 0.012 / 0.836
BER: Steel -0.012 / -0.836
3Q 15:00
NYS 24 BER 10
--- - NYS - 16
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.938 - BER Win%: 0.062 - Ex. Points: 0.607
Play Result: Kickoff of 63 yards. Returned by Mendoza, C. for 14 yards.
After Play: Win% Change: NYS -0.011 - Ex. Points Change: -0.751
Allocation:
NYS: Mendoza -0.011 / -0.751
BER: King 0.011 / 0.751
3Q 14:57
NYS 24 BER 10
1st and 10 - NYS - 16
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.927 - BER Win%: 0.073 - Ex. Points: -0.144
Play Result: Rush by Prince ®, B. for 2 yds. Tackle by Steel, H..
After Play: Win% Change: NYS +0.000 - Ex. Points Change: -0.140
Allocation:
NYS: Prince 0.000 / -0.140
BER: Steel 0.000 / 0.140
3Q 14:20
NYS 24 BER 10
2nd and 7 - NYS - 18
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.927 - BER Win%: 0.073 - Ex. Points: -0.284
Play Result: Pass by Howitzer, S., complete to Kingston, J. for 9 yds. Tackle by Jones, S..
After Play: Win% Change: NYS +0.018 - Ex. Points Change: 1.089
Allocation:
NYS: Howitzer 0.009 / 0.544 - Kingston 0.009 / 0.544
BER: Jones -0.018 / -1.089
3Q 13:32
NYS 24 BER 10
1st and 10 - NYS - 28
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.945 - BER Win%: 0.055 - Ex. Points: 0.805
Play Result: Rush by Prince ®, B. for 1 yds. Tackle by Steel, H..
After Play: Win% Change: NYS -0.004 - Ex. Points Change: -0.408
Allocation:
NYS: Prince -0.004 / -0.408
BER: Steel 0.004 / 0.408
3Q 12:56
NYS 24 BER 10
2nd and 9 - NYS - 29
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.941 - BER Win%: 0.059 - Ex. Points: 0.397
Play Result: Pass by Howitzer, S. to Bawlls, B. was dropped! Incomplete.
After Play: Win% Change: NYS -0.008 - Ex. Points Change: -0.692
Allocation:
NYS: Howitzer -0.004 / -0.346 - Bawlls -0.004 / -0.346
BER: Unallocated (Pass D) 0.008 / 0.692
3Q 12:44
NYS 24 BER 10
3rd and 9 - NYS - 29
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.933 - BER Win%: 0.067 - Ex. Points: -0.295
Play Result: Pass by Howitzer, S., complete to Rogers ©, C. for 11 yds. Tackle by de Ville, D..
After Play: Win% Change: NYS +0.025 - Ex. Points Change: 1.892
Allocation:
NYS: Howitzer 0.013 / 0.946 - Rogers 0.013 / 0.946
BER: de Ville -0.025 / -1.892
3Q 11:56
NYS 24 BER 10
1st and 10 - NYS - 40
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.958 - BER Win%: 0.042 - Ex. Points: 1.597
Play Result: Pass by Howitzer, S., complete to Kingston, J. for 10 yds.
After Play: Win% Change: NYS +0.008 - Ex. Points Change: 0.792
Allocation:
NYS: Howitzer 0.004 / 0.396 - Kingston 0.004 / 0.396
BER: Unallocated (Pass D) -0.008 / -0.792
3Q 11:41
NYS 24 BER 10
1st and 10 - BER - 48
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.966 - BER Win%: 0.034 - Ex. Points: 2.389
Play Result: Pass by Howitzer, S., complete to Snyder, S. for 11 yds. Tackle by Jones, S..
After Play: Win% Change: NYS +0.007 - Ex. Points Change: 0.726
Allocation:
NYS: Howitzer 0.004 / 0.363 - Snyder 0.004 / 0.363
BER: Jones -0.007 / -0.726
3Q 10:53
NYS 24 BER 10
1st and 10 - BER - 37
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.973 - BER Win%: 0.027 - Ex. Points: 3.115
Play Result: Rush by Rogers ©, C. for a short gain. Tackle by VonPebbles, M..
After Play: Win% Change: NYS -0.001 - Ex. Points Change: -0.408
Allocation:
NYS: Rogers -0.001 / -0.408
BER: VonPebbles 0.001 / 0.408
3Q 10:17
NYS 24 BER 10
2nd and 9 - BER - 36
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.972 - BER Win%: 0.028 - Ex. Points: 2.707
Play Result: Pass by Howitzer, S., complete to Snyder, S. for 5 yds. Tackle by de Ville, D..
After Play: Win% Change: NYS +0.002 - Ex. Points Change: 0.034
Allocation:
NYS: Howitzer 0.001 / 0.017 - Snyder 0.001 / 0.017
BER: de Ville -0.002 / -0.034
3Q 9:30
NYS 24 BER 10
3rd and 3 - BER - 31
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.974 - BER Win%: 0.026 - Ex. Points: 2.741
Play Result: Pass by Howitzer, S., complete to Snyder, S. for 5 yds. Tackle by de Ville, D..
After Play: Win% Change: NYS +0.009 - Ex. Points Change: 1.166
Allocation:
NYS: Howitzer 0.005 / 0.583 - Snyder 0.005 / 0.583
BER: de Ville -0.009 / -1.166
3Q 8:46
NYS 24 BER 10
1st and 10 - BER - 25
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.983 - BER Win%: 0.017 - Ex. Points: 3.907
Play Result: Howitzer, S. is SACKED by BamBam McMullet - LB for -6 yds.
After Play: Win% Change: NYS -0.007 - Ex. Points Change: -1.419
Allocation:
NYS: Offensive Line -0.007 / -1.419
BER: McMullet 0.007 / 1.419
3Q 7:58
NYS 24 BER 10
2nd and 16 - BER - 32
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.976 - BER Win%: 0.024 - Ex. Points: 2.488
Play Result: Pass by Howitzer, S., complete to Kingston, J. for 16 yds. Tackle by Jones, S..
After Play: Win% Change: NYS +0.012 - Ex. Points Change: 2.091
Allocation:
NYS: Howitzer 0.006 / 1.046 - Kingston 0.006 / 1.046
BER: Jones -0.012 / -2.091
3Q 7:06
NYS 24 BER 10
1st and 10 - BER - 15
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.988 - BER Win%: 0.012 - Ex. Points: 4.579
Play Result: Pass by Howitzer, S., complete to Snyder, S. for 9 yds. Tackle by Avery, E..
After Play: Win% Change: NYS +0.005 - Ex. Points Change: 1.025
Allocation:
NYS: Howitzer 0.003 / 0.512 - Snyder 0.003 / 0.512
BER: Avery -0.005 / -1.025
3Q 6:17
NYS 24 BER 10
2nd and inches - BER - 6
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.993 - BER Win%: 0.007 - Ex. Points: 5.604
Play Result: Rush by Prince ®, B. for 2 yds. Tackle by Brando ©, M..
After Play: Win% Change: NYS +0.002 - Ex. Points Change: 0.909
Allocation:
NYS: Prince 0.002 / 0.909
BER: Brando -0.002 / -0.909
3Q 5:39
NYS 24 BER 10
1st and Goal - BER - 3
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.995 - BER Win%: 0.005 - Ex. Points: 6.513
Play Result: Howitzer, S. is SACKED by Mario VonPebbles - DE for -11 yds.
After Play: Win% Change: NYS -0.007 - Ex. Points Change: -3.056
Allocation:
NYS: Offensive Line -0.007 / -3.056
BER: VonPebbles 0.007 / 3.056
3Q 4:49
NYS 24 BER 10
2nd and Goal - BER - 15
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.988 - BER Win%: 0.012 - Ex. Points: 3.457
Play Result: Pass by Howitzer, S. to Rogers ©, C. is incomplete. Broken up by Shields, T..
After Play: Win% Change: NYS -0.002 - Ex. Points Change: -0.524
Allocation:
NYS: Howitzer -0.001 / -0.262 - Rogers -0.001 / -0.262
BER: Shields 0.002 / 0.524
3Q 4:41
NYS 24 BER 10
3rd and Goal - BER - 15
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.986 - BER Win%: 0.014 - Ex. Points: 2.933
Play Result: Howitzer, S. is SACKED by Derek Wildstar - SS for -6 yds.
After Play: Win% Change: NYS -0.003 - Ex. Points Change: -0.876
Allocation:
NYS: Offensive Line -0.003 / -0.876
BER: Wildstar 0.003 / 0.876
3Q 3:53
NYS 24 BER 10
4th and Goal - BER - 21
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.983 - BER Win%: 0.017 - Ex. Points: 2.057
Play Result: 38 yard FG by Smalls, D. is good.
After Play: Win% Change: BER -0.002 - Ex. Points Change: -0.336
Allocation:
NYS: Smalls 0.002 / 0.240 - Unallocated (Team) 0.000 / 0.096
BER: Unallocated (Team) -0.002 / -0.336
3Q 3:53
NYS 27 BER 10
--- - BER - 12
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.985 - BER Win%: 0.015 - Ex. Points: 0.607
Play Result: Kickoff of 64 yards. Returned by Hood ©, T. for 11 yards.
After Play: Win% Change: BER -0.004 - Ex. Points Change: -0.961
Allocation:
NYS: Smalls 0.004 / 0.961
BER: Hood -0.004 / -0.961
3Q 3:48
NYS 27 BER 10
1st and 10 - BER - 12
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.989 - BER Win%: 0.011 - Ex. Points: -0.354
Play Result: Pass by Kaepercolin, N., complete to Hood ©, T. for 8 yds. Tackle by Mendoza, C..
After Play: Win% Change: BER +0.002 - Ex. Points Change: 0.709
Allocation:
NYS: Mendoza -0.002 / -0.709
BER: Kaepercolin 0.001 / 0.355 - Hood 0.001 / 0.355
3Q 3:32
NYS 27 BER 10
2nd and 1 - BER - 20
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.987 - BER Win%: 0.013 - Ex. Points: 0.355
Play Result: Rush by King Jr., D. for 3 yds. Tackle by McDavid, L..
After Play: Win% Change: BER +0.000 - Ex. Points Change: 0.120
Allocation:
NYS: McDavid 0.000 / -0.120
BER: King Jr. 0.000 / 0.120
3Q 3:24
NYS 27 BER 10
1st and 10 - BER - 23
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.987 - BER Win%: 0.013 - Ex. Points: 0.475
Play Result: Rush by King Jr., D. for 2 yds. Tackle by Banks, J..
After Play: Win% Change: BER +0.000 - Ex. Points Change: -0.138
Allocation:
NYS: Banks 0.000 / 0.138
BER: King Jr. 0.000 / -0.138
3Q 3:16
NYS 27 BER 10
2nd and 7 - BER - 26
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.987 - BER Win%: 0.013 - Ex. Points: 0.337
Play Result: Kaepercolin, N. is SACKED by Hank Winchester - LB for -11 yds. FUMBLE recovered by Winchester, H. at the NYS - 14 yard line and returned for 1 yards.
After Play: Win% Change: NYS +0.011 - Ex. Points Change: 5.049
Allocation:
NYS: Winchester 0.011 / 5.049
BER: Kaepercolin -0.006 / -2.525 - Offensive Line -0.006 / -2.525
I've been giving sacks to the offensive line, but had to give something to Kaepernick here too for not holding onto the ball.
3Q 2:57
NYS 27 BER 10
1st and 10 - BER - 13
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.998 - BER Win%: 0.002 - Ex. Points: 4.712
Play Result: Howitzer, S. is SACKED by Tyron Shields - CB for -6 yds.
After Play: Win% Change: NYS -0.001 - Ex. Points Change: -1.432
Allocation:
NYS: Offensive Line -0.001 / -1.432
BER: Shields 0.001 / 1.432
3Q 2:15
NYS 27 BER 10
2nd and 16 - BER - 20
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.997 - BER Win%: 0.003 - Ex. Points: 3.280
Play Result: Pass by Howitzer, S., complete to Kingston, J. for 12 yds. Tackle by Jones, S..
After Play: Win% Change: NYS +0.002 - Ex. Points Change: 0.996
Allocation:
NYS: Howitzer 0.001 / 0.498 - Kingston 0.001 / 0.498
BER: Jones -0.002 / -0.996
3Q 1:33
NYS 27 BER 10
3rd and 4 - BER - 8
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.999 - BER Win%: 0.001 - Ex. Points: 4.276
Play Result: Pass by Howitzer, S., complete to Kingston, J. for 8 yds. TOUCHDOWN! (Smalls kick good)
After Play: Win% Change: BER -0.001 - Ex. Points Change: -2.117
Allocation:
NYS: Howitzer 0.001 / 1.362 - Kingston 0.001 / 1.362 - Unallocated (Team) 0.000 / -0.607
BER: Unallocated (Pass D) -0.001 / -2.724 - Unallocated 0.000 / 0.607
3Q 1:23
NYS 34 BER 10
1st and 10 - BER - 25
Before Play: NYS Win %: 1.000 - BER Win%: 0.000 - Ex. Points: 0.607
Play Result: Kickoff by Smalls, D. through the back of the endzone. Touchback.
After Play: Win% Change: BER +0.000 - Ex. Points Change: 0.000
Allocation:
NYS: Smalls 0.000 / 0.000
BER: Unallocated (Special Teams) 0.000 / 0.000
3Q 1:23
NYS 34 BER 10
1st and 10 - BER - 25
Before Play: NYS Win %: 1.000 - BER Win%: 0.000 - Ex. Points: 0.607
Play Result: Pass by Kaepercolin, N., complete to Achtfünf, -. for 6 yds. Tackle by Quakstak, D..
After Play: Win% Change: BER +0.000 - Ex. Points Change: 0.336
Allocation:
NYS: Quakstak 0.000 / -0.336
BER: Kaepercolin 0.000 / 0.168 - Achtfunf 0.000 / 0.168
3Q 1:03
NYS 34 BER 10
2nd and 3 - BER - 31
Before Play: NYS Win %: 1.000 - BER Win%: 0.000 - Ex. Points: 0.943
Play Result: Pass by Kaepercolin, N., complete to King Jr., D. for 8 yds. Tackle by Quakstak, D..
After Play: Win% Change: BER +0.001 - Ex. Points Change: 0.588
Allocation:
NYS: Quakstack -0.001 / -0.588
BER: Kaepercolin 0.001 / 0.294 - King Jr. 0.001 / 0.294
3Q 0:48
NYS 34 BER 10
1st and 10 - BER - 39
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.999 - BER Win%: 0.001 - Ex. Points: 1.531
Play Result: Rush by King Jr., D. for a short gain. Tackle by Mongo ®, -..
After Play: Win% Change: BER -0.001 - Ex. Points Change: -0.408
Allocation:
NYS: Mongo 0.001 / 0.408
BER: King Jr. -0.001 / -0.408
3Q 0:39
NYS 34 BER 10
2nd and 9 - BER - 40
Before Play: NYS Win %: 1.000 - BER Win%: 0.000 - Ex. Points: 1.123
Play Result: Pass by Kaepercolin, N., complete to Skiuuup, C. for 6 yds. Tackle by Quakstak, D.. New York Penalty on Mongo ®, -.: Horse Collar Tackle.
After Play: Win% Change: BER +0.001 - Ex. Points Change: 1.926
Allocation:
NYS: Mongo -0.001 / -1.926
BER: Unallocated (Team) 0.001 / 1.926
3Q 0:24
NYS 34 BER 10
1st and 10 - NYS - 38
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.999 - BER Win%: 0.001 - Ex. Points: 3.049
Play Result: Pass by Kaepercolin, N. to Achtfünf, -. is incomplete. Broken up by Quakstak, D..
After Play: Win% Change: BER +0.000 - Ex. Points Change: -0.543
Allocation:
NYS: Quakstak 0.000 / 0.543
BER: Kaepercolin 0.000 / -0.272 - Achtfunf 0.000 / -0.272
3Q 0:12
NYS 34 BER 10
2nd and 10 - NYS - 38
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.999 - BER Win%: 0.001 - Ex. Points: 2.506
Play Result: Pass by Kaepercolin, N., complete to Hood ©, T. for 8 yds. Tackle by Mendoza, C..
After Play: Win% Change: BER +0.000 - Ex. Points Change: 0.433
Allocation:
NYS: Mendoza 0.000 / -0.433
BER: Kaepercolin 0.000 / 0.217 - Hood 0.000 / 0.217
4Q 15:00
NYS 34 BER 10
3rd and 1 - NYS - 30
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.999 - BER Win%: 0.001 - Ex. Points: 2.939
Play Result: Pass by Kaepercolin, N., complete to Hood ©, T. for 10 yds. Tackle by Mendoza, C..
After Play: Win% Change: BER +0.000 - Ex. Points Change: 1.367
Allocation:
NYS: Mendoza 0.000 / -1.367
BER: Kaepercolin 0.000 / 0.683 - Hood 0.000 / 0.683
4Q 14:07
NYS 34 BER 10
1st and 10 - NYS - 19
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.999 - BER Win%: 0.001 - Ex. Points: 4.306
Play Result: Pass by Kaepercolin, N. to Skiuuup, C. falls incomplete.
After Play: Win% Change: BER +0.000 - Ex. Points Change: -0.558
Allocation:
NYS: Unallocated (Pass D) 0.000 / 0.558
BER: Kaepercolin 0.000 / -0.279 - Skiuuup 0.000 / -0.279
4Q 13:55
NYS 34 BER 10
2nd and 10 - NYS - 19
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.999 - BER Win%: 0.001 - Ex. Points: 3.748
Play Result: Pass by Kaepercolin, N., complete to Hood ©, T. for 19 yds. TOUCHDOWN! (King kick good)
After Play: Win% Change: NYS -0.002 - Ex. Points Change: -2.645
Allocation:
NYS: Unallocated (Pass D) -0.002 / -3.252 - Unallocated (Team) 0.000 / 0.607
BER: Kaepercolin 0.001 / 1.626 - Hood 0.001 / 1.626 - Unallocated (Team) 0.000 / -0.607
Here is as good a time as any to explain that I didn't properly assign anything to kickers for making extra points. Based on the high likelihood of making it, I just figured there is minimal added value to apply to the kicker for an extra point.
4Q 13:37
NYS 34 BER 17
--- - NYS - 9
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.997 - BER Win%: 0.003 - Ex. Points: 0.607
Play Result: Kickoff of 64 yards. Returned by Kingston, J. for 8 yards.
After Play: Win% Change: NYS -0.002 - Ex. Points Change: -0.987
Allocation:
NYS: Kingston -0.002 / -0.987
BER: King 0.002 / 0.987
4Q 13:32
NYS 34 BER 17
1st and 10 - NYS - 9
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.995 - BER Win%: 0.005 - Ex. Points: -0.380
Play Result: Rush by Rogers ©, C. for a short gain. Tackle by Miller II, C..
After Play: Win% Change: NYS +0.000 - Ex. Points Change: -0.327
Allocation:
NYS: Rogers 0.000 / -0.327
BER: Miller II 0.000 / 0.327
4Q 12:56
NYS 34 BER 17
2nd and 9 - NYS - 9
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.995 - BER Win%: 0.005 - Ex. Points: -0.707
Play Result: Rush by Rogers ©, C. for a short gain. Tackle by Miller II, C..
After Play: Win% Change: NYS +0.000 - Ex. Points Change: -0.596
Allocation:
NYS: Rogers 0.000 / -0.596
BER: Miller II 0.000 / 0.596
4Q 12:21
NYS 34 BER 17
3rd and 9 - NYS - 10
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.995 - BER Win%: 0.005 - Ex. Points: -1.303
Play Result: Pass by Howitzer, S., complete to Wilkinson, J. for 2 yds. Tackle by Wildstar, D..
After Play: Win% Change: NYS -0.002 - Ex. Points Change: -1.187
Allocation:
NYS: Howitzer -0.001 / -0.594 - Wilkinson -0.001 / -0.594
BER: Wildstar 0.002 / 1.187
4Q 11:36
NYS 34 BER 17
4th and 6 - NYS - 12
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.993 - BER Win%: 0.007 - Ex. Points: -2.490
Play Result: Punt by Smalls, D. of 47 yards. Returned by Hood ©, T. for 1 yards.
After Play: Win% Change: BER -0.002 - Ex. Points Change: -0.827
Allocation:
NYS: Smalls 0.002 / 0.827
BER: Hood -0.002 / -0.827
4Q 11:22
NYS 34 BER 17
1st and 10 - BER - 41
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.995 - BER Win%: 0.005 - Ex. Points: 1.663
Play Result: Pass by Kaepercolin, N. to Skiuuup, C. falls incomplete.
After Play: Win% Change: BER -0.002 - Ex. Points Change: -0.543
Allocation:
NYS: Unallocated (Pass D) 0.002 / 0.543
BER: Kaepercolin -0.001 / -0.271 - Skiuuup -0.001 / -0.271
4Q 11:10
NYS 34 BER 17
2nd and 10 - BER - 41
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.997 - BER Win%: 0.003 - Ex. Points: 1.120
Play Result: Pass by Kaepercolin, N., complete to King Jr., D. for 9 yds. Tackle by Quakstak, D..
After Play: Win% Change: BER +0.000 - Ex. Points Change: 0.565
Allocation:
NYS: Quakstak 0.000 / -0.565
BER: Kaepercolin 0.000 / 0.282 - King Jr. 0.000 / 0.282
4Q 10:18
NYS 34 BER 17
3rd and inches - NYS - 49
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.997 - BER Win%: 0.003 - Ex. Points: 1.685
Play Result: Pass by Kaepercolin, N., complete to Hood ©, T. for 8 yds. Tackle by Mendoza, C..
After Play: Win% Change: BER +0.001 - Ex. Points Change: 1.166
Allocation:
NYS: Mendoza -0.001 / -1.166
BER: Kaepercolin 0.001 / 0.583 - Hood 0.001 / 0.583
4Q 9:31
NYS 34 BER 17
1st and 10 - NYS - 41
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.996 - BER Win%: 0.004 - Ex. Points: 2.851
Play Result: Pass by Kaepercolin, N., complete to Hood ©, T. for 8 yds. Tackle by Mendoza, C..
After Play: Win% Change: BER +0.001 - Ex. Points Change: 0.672
Allocation:
NYS: Mendoza -0.001 / -0.672
BER: Kaepercolin 0.001 / 0.336 - Hood 0.001 / 0.336
4Q 8:47
NYS 34 BER 17
2nd and 1 - NYS - 32
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.995 - BER Win%: 0.005 - Ex. Points: 3.523
Play Result: Pass by Kaepercolin, N., complete to Hood ©, T. for 8 yds. Tackle by Mendoza, C..
After Play: Win% Change: BER -0.001 - Ex. Points Change: 0.450
Allocation:
NYS: Mendoza 0.001 / -0.450
BER: Kaepercolin -0.001 / 0.225 - Hood -0.001 / 0.225
4Q 8:01
NYS 34 BER 17
1st and 10 - NYS - 24
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.996 - BER Win%: 0.004 - Ex. Points: 3.973
Play Result: Pass by Kaepercolin, N., complete to Hood ©, T. for 11 yds. Tackle by Mendoza, C..
After Play: Win% Change: BER +0.001 - Ex. Points Change: 0.806
Allocation:
NYS: Mendoza -0.001 / -0.806
BER: Kaepercolin 0.001 / 0.403 - Hood 0.001 / 0.403
Hood really didn't have a good game before this drive, but that's an impressive four consecutive completion stretch.
4Q 7:13
NYS 34 BER 17
1st and 10 - NYS - 12
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.995 - BER Win%: 0.005 - Ex. Points: 4.779
Play Result: Rush by King Jr., D. for a short gain. Tackle by Winchester, H..
After Play: Win% Change: BER -0.003 - Ex. Points Change: -0.680
Allocation:
NYS: Winchester 0.003 / 0.680
BER: King Jr. -0.003 / -0.680
4Q 6:35
NYS 34 BER 17
2nd and 10 - NYS - 12
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.998 - BER Win%: 0.002 - Ex. Points: 4.099
Play Result: Pass by Kaepercolin, N., complete to Skiuuup, C. for 7 yds. Tackle by Mendoza, C..
After Play: Win% Change: BER +0.000 - Ex. Points Change: 0.685
Allocation:
NYS: Mendoza 0.000 / -0.685
BER: Kaepercolin 0.000 / 0.342 - Skiuuup 0.000 / 0.342
4Q 5:45
NYS 34 BER 17
3rd and 2 - NYS - 5
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.998 - BER Win%: 0.002 - Ex. Points: 4.784
Play Result: New York Penalty on Mongo ®, -.: Too many men on the field.
After Play: Win% Change: BER +0.000 - Ex. Points Change: 0.281
Allocation:
NYS: Mongo 0.000 / -0.281
BER: Unallocated (Team) 0.000 / 0.281
4Q 5:45
NYS 34 BER 17
3rd and inches - NYS - 3
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.998 - BER Win%: 0.002 - Ex. Points: 5.065
Play Result: Rush by King Jr., D. for 0 yds. Tackle by Van Sanzo, B..
After Play: Win% Change: BER -0.002 - Ex. Points Change: -2.008
Allocation:
NYS: Van Sanzo 0.002 / 2.008
BER: King Jr. -0.002 / -2.008
4Q 5:07
NYS 34 BER 17
4th and inches - NYS - 3
Before Play: NYS Win %: 1.000 - BER Win%: 0.000 - Ex. Points: 3.057
Play Result: 20 yard FG by King, D. is good.
After Play: Win% Change: NYS +0.000 - Ex. Points Change: 0.664
Allocation:
NYS: Unallocated (Team) 0.000 / 0.664
BER: King 0.000 / 0.150 - Unallocated (Team) 0.000 / -0.814
4Q 5:07
NYS 34 BER 20
1st and 10 - NYS - 25
Before Play: NYS Win %: 1.000 - BER Win%: 0.000 - Ex. Points: 0.607
Play Result: Kickoff by King, D. through the back of the endzone. Touchback.
After Play: Win% Change: NYS +0.000 - Ex. Points Change: 0.000
Allocation:
NYS: Unallocated (Special Teams) 0.000 / 0.000
BER: King 0.000 / 0.000
4Q 5:07
NYS 34 BER 20
1st and 10 - NYS - 25
Before Play: NYS Win %: 1.000 - BER Win%: 0.000 - Ex. Points: 0.607
Play Result: Pass by Howitzer, S., complete to Snyder, S. for 33 yds. Tackle by Avery, E..
After Play: Win% Change: NYS -0.004 - Ex. Points Change: 2.244
Allocation:
NYS: Howitzer -0.002 / 1.122 - Snyder -0.002 / 1.122
BER: Avery 0.004 / -2.244
4Q 4:06
NYS 34 BER 20
1st and 10 - BER - 41
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.996 - BER Win%: 0.004 - Ex. Points: 2.851
Play Result: Pass by Howitzer, S., complete to Wilkinson, J. for 10 yds. Tackle by McMullet, B. .
After Play: Win% Change: NYS +0.004 - Ex. Points Change: 0.660
Allocation:
NYS: Howitzer 0.002 / 0.330 - Wilkinson 0.002 / 0.330
BER: McMullet -0.004 / -0.660
4Q 3:21
NYS 34 BER 20
1st and 10 - BER - 31
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.999 - BER Win%: 0.001 - Ex. Points: 3.511
Play Result: Pass by Howitzer, S. to Kingston, J. is incomplete. Broken up by Jones, S..
After Play: Win% Change: NYS +0.000 - Ex. Points Change: -0.543
Allocation:
NYS: Howitzer 0.000 / -0.272 - Kingston 0.000 / -0.272
BER: Jones 0.000 / 0.543
4Q 3:09
NYS 34 BER 20
2nd and 10 - BER - 31
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.999 - BER Win%: 0.001 - Ex. Points: 2.968
Play Result: Rush by Rogers ©, C. for a short gain. Tackle by Miller II, C..
After Play: Win% Change: NYS 0.000 - Ex. Points Change: -0.557
Allocation:
NYS: Rogers 0.000 / -0.557
BER: Miller II 0.000 / 0.557
4Q 2:39
NYS 34 BER 20
3rd and 9 - BER - 30
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.999 - BER Win%: 0.001 - Ex. Points: 2.411
Play Result: Pass by Howitzer, S., complete to Snyder, S. for 11 yds. Tackle by Avery, E.. Timeout called by BER.
After Play: Win% Change: NYS +0.001 - Ex. Points Change: 1.895
Allocation:
NYS: Howitzer 0.001 / 0.947 - Snyder 0.001 / 0.947
BER: Avery -0.001 / -1.895
4Q 2:23
NYS 34 BER 20
1st and 10 - BER - 19
Before Play: NYS Win %: 1.000 - BER Win%: 0.000 - Ex. Points: 4.306
Play Result: Rush by Prince ®, B. for 1 yds. Tackle by McMullet, B.. Timeout called by BER.
After Play: Win% Change: NYS 0.000 - Ex. Points Change: -0.424
Allocation:
NYS: Prince 0.000 / -0.424
BER: McMullet 0.000 / 0.424
4Q 2:21
NYS 34 BER 20
2nd and 9 - BER - 18
Before Play: NYS Win %: 1.000 - BER Win%: 0.000 - Ex. Points: 3.882
Play Result: Rush by Prince ®, B. for a short gain. Tackle by Miller II, C.. Timeout called by BER.
After Play: Win% Change: NYS 0.000 - Ex. Points Change: -0.618
Allocation:
NYS: Prince 0.000 / -0.618
BER: Miller II 0.000 / 0.618
4Q 2:20
NYS 34 BER 20
3rd and 8 - BER - 17
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.999 - BER Win%: 0.001 - Ex. Points: 3.264
Play Result: Rush by Rogers ©, C. for 7 yds. Tackle by Wildstar, D..
After Play: Win% Change: NYS 0.000 - Ex. Points Change: -0.353
Allocation:
NYS: Rogers 0.000 / -0.353
BER: Wildstar 0.000 / 0.353
4Q 2:00
NYS 34 BER 20
4th and 1 - BER - 10
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.999 - BER Win%: 0.001 - Ex. Points: 2.911
Play Result: 27 yard FG by Smalls, D. is good.
After Play: Win% Change: BER +0.000 - Ex. Points Change: 0.518
Allocation:
NYS: Smalls 0.000 / 0.061 - Unallocated (Team) 0.000 / -0.579
BER: Unallocated (Team) 0.000 / 0.518
4Q 2:00
NYS 37 BER 20
--- - BER - 16
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.999 - BER Win%: 0.001 - Ex. Points: 0.607
Play Result: Kickoff of 61 yards. Returned by Hood ©, T. for 12 yards.
After Play: Win% Change: BER 0.000 - Ex. Points Change: -0.751
Allocation:
NYS: Smalls 0.000 / 0.751
BER: Hood 0.000 / -0.751
4Q 1:56
NYS 37 BER 20
1st and 10 - BER - 16
Before Play: NYS Win %: 0.999 - BER Win%: 0.001 - Ex. Points: -0.144
Play Result: Kaepercolin, N. is SACKED by Dogwood Maple - FS for -11 yds.
After Play: Win% Change: BER -0.001 - Ex. Points Change: -1.439
Allocation:
NYS: Maple 0.001 / 1.439
BER: Offensive Line -0.001 / -1.439
4Q 1:39
NYS 37 BER 20
2nd and 21 - BER - 4
Before Play: NYS Win %: 1.000 - BER Win%: 0.000 - Ex. Points: -1.583
Play Result: Pass by Kaepercolin, N. to Achtfünf, -. is incomplete. Broken up by Quakstak, D..
After Play: Win% Change: BER +0.000 - Ex. Points Change: -1.124
Allocation:
NYS: Quakstack 0.000 / 1.124
BER: Kaepercolin 0.000 / -0.562 - Achtfunf 0.000 / -0.562
4Q 1:34
NYS 37 BER 20
3rd and 21 - BER - 4
Before Play: NYS Win %: 1.000 - BER Win%: 0.000 - Ex. Points: -2.707
Play Result: Pass by Kaepercolin, N., complete to Skiuuup, C. for 14 yds. Tackle by Quakstak, D..FUMBLE recovered by Quakstak, D. at the NYS - 18 yard line and returned for 9 yards.
After Play: Win% Change: NYS +0.000 - Ex. Points Change: 2.432
Allocation:
NYS: Quakstak 0.000 / 2.432
BER: Kaepercolin 0.001 / 1.000 - Skiuuup -0.001 / -3.432
Since the fumble is entirely on Skiuuup, he gets all the negative for the play and then some, as Kaepercolin should get some credit for completing the pass.
4Q 1:27
NYS 37 BER 20
1st and Goal - BER - 9
Before Play: NYS Win %: 1.000 - BER Win%: 0.000 - Ex. Points: 5.139
Play Result: Offense kneels the ball.
After Play: Win% Change: NYS +0.000 - Ex. Points Change: -1.118
Allocation:
NYS: Unallocated (Team) 0.000 / -1.118
BER: Unallocated (Team) 0.000 / 1.118
4Q 1:05
NYS 37 BER 20
2nd and Goal - BER - 11
Before Play: NYS Win %: 1.000 - BER Win%: 0.000 - Ex. Points: 4.021
Play Result: Rush by Rogers ©, C. for -2 yds. Tackle by Steel, H..
After Play: Win% Change: NYS +0.000 - Ex. Points Change: -0.963
Allocation:
NYS: Rogers 0.000 / -0.963
BER: Steel 0.000 / 0.963
4Q 0:52
NYS 37 BER 20
3rd and Goal - BER - 13
Before Play: NYS Win %: 1.000 - BER Win%: 0.000 - Ex. Points: 3.058
Play Result: Rush by Rogers ©, C. for 1 yds. Tackle by de Ville, D..
After Play: Win% Change: NYS +0.000 - Ex. Points Change: -0.425
Allocation:
NYS: Rogers 0.000 / -0.425
BER: de Ville 0.000 / 0.425
4Q 0:38
NYS 37 BER 20
4th and Goal - BER - 12
Before Play: NYS Win %: 1.000 - BER Win%: 0.000 - Ex. Points: 2.633
Play Result: 29 yard FG by Smalls, D. is good.
After Play: Win% Change: BER +0.000 - Ex. Points Change: 0.240
Allocation:
NYS: Smalls 0.000 / 0.150 - Unallocated (Team) 0.000 / -0.390
BER: Unallocated (Team) 0.000 / 0.240
Sorry, have to cut the play by play off here in order to get this under the character count limit to post on the forums. Don't worry, nothing interesting happened in the last few plays. Berlin turned it over on downs and New York kneeled it out to win. I still have the points and win percentage changes tracked on the back end.
---
Alright, still with me? God I hope not. For you sane people that just scrolled down to the bottom to get to the good stuff, here are the cumulative player totals:
![[Image: 4d5b1ea5f4b912ec4ac0ed8ce6df4ba4.png]](https://i2.paste.pics/4d5b1ea5f4b912ec4ac0ed8ce6df4ba4.png)
![[Image: 430b011d7c1e35730df9632a0e5302de.png]](https://i2.paste.pics/430b011d7c1e35730df9632a0e5302de.png)
Some interesting stuff there. By the numbers, your Ultimus MVP would be Colt Mendoza whose plays singlehandedly added +19.6% to the Silverbacks win probability. Interestingly enough, his first quarter pick-6 was worth +21.1%, meaning he was actually a negative player the whole game other than that one huge play. Howitzer, Prince, and Winchester also made big contributions, but since most of that happened after New York had things mostly in hand, their impact on WPA was not so extreme, but you can see they were leaders in EPA. For Berlin, their most valuable player was..uh the kicker, followed by technically no one [Unallocated (Team)]. You can see why things didn't go their way. The scapegoat for the loss has to be poor Nick Kaepercolin, as Berlin was unable to recover from his two turnovers.
---
And here is the game chart:
![[Image: ba13d5d0d994f5fbaa72a8eca32fa349.png]](https://i2.paste.pics/ba13d5d0d994f5fbaa72a8eca32fa349.png)
RE: Who Won the Ultimus? - Yeenoghu - 07-07-2021
More of this please. Love reading about WPA, and I can’t believe you did all this manually. Awesome job!
RE: Who Won the Ultimus? - Big Edd - 07-07-2021
Madman
RE: Who Won the Ultimus? - Pat - 07-07-2021
How long did it take to run all of this?
RE: Who Won the Ultimus? - abh89 - 07-07-2021
I always know a Modern_Duke media piece will be worth the read, and this one is no exception. This would be awesome to see on a regular basis. Great work!
RE: Who Won the Ultimus? - infinitempg - 07-07-2021
is this when i tell @Modern_Duke that i built a whole bot to generate these like 4 seasons back and forgot about it
RE: Who Won the Ultimus? - SchwarzNarr - 07-07-2021
(07-07-2021, 04:58 PM)infinitempg Wrote: is this when i tell @Modern_Duke that i built a whole bot to generate these like 4 seasons back and forgot about it
no because then he doesn't get media money.
RE: Who Won the Ultimus? - infinitempg - 07-07-2021
(07-07-2021, 05:04 PM)SchwarzNarr Wrote:(07-07-2021, 04:58 PM)infinitempg Wrote: is this when i tell @Modern_Duke that i built a whole bot to generate these like 4 seasons back and forgot about it
no because then he doesn't get media money.
i fail to see how this is a problem /s
RE: *Who Won the Ultimus? - infinitempg - 07-07-2021
![[Image: 4QbDh3vKw1FAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC.png]](https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/800790313253339146/862529655474487327/4QbDh3vKw1FAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC.png)
it misbehaves around kickoffs and i still haven't figured out how to fix that but yeah here ya go
RE: *Who Won the Ultimus? - Modern_Duke - 07-08-2021
(07-07-2021, 10:05 PM)infinitempg Wrote:
it misbehaves around kickoffs and i still haven't figured out how to fix that but yeah here ya go
![[Image: tenor.gif]](https://media.tenor.com/images/c90781fcccce841fae5cb00a8a8f934f/tenor.gif)