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+---- Thread: *Analyzing My Weekly Predictions: Week 1 (/showthread.php?tid=33889)
*Analyzing My Weekly Predictions: Week 1 - StadiumGambler - 07-22-2021
I'm in need of dollar and cents (as well as dollars and sense), so I'm going to be analyzing my predictions in a series of articles I (hopefully) maintain to prevent Frost from cutting me due to media inactivity. I'll break down my rationale behind the picks, and then a brief overview of the games in question and why the picks did or did not work out. Hopefully this helps me learn to make better selections in future idk. To the review!
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ORANGE COUNTY OTTERS vs. NEW ORLEANS SECOND LINE 
Pick: New Orleans
Reasoning: Honestly this was close, and I had Orange County over NOLA for season predictions, thinking their better offense might carry the day in the long run. However, NOLA tend to overachieve, and Orange County tend to underachieve, so I felt NOLA could spring the upset. Plus, NOLA has been quietly assembling a good defense over the past couple seasons, even though they are more known for their air show offense.
Why It Worked: NOLA's defense was actually pretty bad against Orange County in spots, giving up 400 yards to the aging Orange County passing attack. However, NOLA's running game flowed well, Sloth was accurate and threw for 4 TDs and no INTs, and Ramza did throw two bad interceptions.
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BERLIN FIRE SALAMANDERS vs. COLORADO YETI 
Pick: Colorado
Reasoning: I felt Colorado had the better defense and the more stable QB play, but this was also close like many other games this week. Colorado's Linebacking core in particular looks mobile, agile, and hostile, with all three guys having 90 speed. Colorado I believe was Top 2 in sacks last year, and that wouldn't be out of reach this year. Plus Cole Maxwell had a good matchup against the Berlin slot corner.
Why It Failed: Berlin QB Nick Kaepercolin outdueled Caliban, to his credit, despite two interceptions. Colorado's offense seemed to lose its thrust after getting two touchdowns in the first, and Maxwell was anonymous. Berlin's running back tandem of Danny King and Terry Yaki also did a good job chewing up yards and clock when Berlin needed it.
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HONOLULU HAHALUA vs. BALTIMORE HAWKS 
Pick: Baltimore
Reasoning: This was yet another tough game to call, but I think when I was going over the TPE tracker I kinda overlooked Honolulu's offense due the lack of depth and maybe some people not being signed yet. I might've picked Honolulu on closer look. At the same time, Baltimore did overachieve a lot last season, winning 3 games instead of 0, and they were within a field goal of beating Yellowknife twice, and they do seem to have better overall defensive help, unlike Honolulu who has some stars and some candy bars. Also, for close games, I favour the home team cause any edge, no matter how small, might tip the scales.
Why It Worked: Baltimore QB Gimmy Jaroppolo Jr. was efficient and managed the game well, and got help from Busch Goose in the running game. Honolulu had to throw 47 times and saw a lot of drives stall, despite getting some good runs from Cobra Kai.
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SARASOTA SAILFISH vs. YELLOWKNIFE WRAITHS 
Pick: Sarasota
Reasoning: Cause I'm on Sarasota! Also, I thought our team was slightly better across the board, except Kicker, and we are the Ultimus favorites to a lot of people thanks to the offseason additions and strong receiving corps. Surely we'd start off with a tough road win?
Why It Worked: And we did. Yellowknife's offense played well in the 2nd half, but Colby Jack was sacked 7 times, and Sarasota kicker Jacob Small bailed us out of a comeback loss with a clutch field goal to win it. Yellowknife will surely be up for the rematch.
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NEW YORK SILVERBACKS VS ARIZONA OUTLAWS 
Pick: Arizona
Reasoning: I felt New York would be struggling a bit to defend their title this year, due to the loss of Jackson Kingston and some minor regression on defense. Still a strong team, but Arizona's receiving corps would give them the edge, and I felt a strong secondary would give New York's receivers a tough time
Why It Worked: Arizona grabbed 4 turnovers and Arizona QB Charlemagne Cortez had a good solid game en route to a rather shocking blowout victory. New York's running game also barely got a glance and barely got yards when they did. This was an aberration I doubt we'll see in the rematch: 21-13 would've been a more reasonable score than 51-13.
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PHILADELPHIA LIBERTY vs. CHICAGO BUTCHERS 
Pick: Philly
Reasoning: Butchers are rebuilding a bit, while Philly is showing signs of progress in their rebuild, having given better teams some tough, tough games over the past couple seasons. They aren't playoff ready yet, but they're getting there.
Why It Failed: Chicago pounced on the only 2 turnovers in the game and scored TDs off both of them. Philly also got hit with some bad penalties in certain spots, and Ryan Negs had some big numbers, but was also inaccurate at times (354 yards passing, but 29/54 on the day.)
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AUSTIN COPPERHEADS vs. SAN JOSE SABRECATS 
Pick: Austin
Reasoning: Things HAD to get better after last year for Austin. QB Jackie Daytona is on his 2nd or 3rd "Get your shit together" moment of his career, and Austin still has enough pieces all-around to be a playoff contender. San Jose is rebuilding and seemed a little lightweight in the secondary, plus their QB is in regression.
Why It Worked: Austin tried their damnedest to give San Jose a crack at winning it late in the 4th, but San Jose couldn't get the job done. San Jose QB Monterey Jack threw for nearly 400 yards, but was picked twice and got no help from his running game, while Daytona got a passing grade for his performance, and a 100 yard day running from Austin's star runningback Zoe Watts.
Thats all for now! I feel burned out from writing this already so it might be a few in-game weeks before I do this again. See ya!