*Team Outlooks - Printable Version

*Team Outlooks - Printable Version

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*Team Outlooks - Gragg9 - 07-24-2021

Hello everyone! I’m back with some more TPE stats for y’all, cause on the field stats still don’t exist for me. This time I’ll be taking a look at the TPE totals for each team from each class. In order to clarify that let’s look at a spreadsheet (my favorite thing)

[Image: 72xSDl4.png]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1G9GXXzj5CvGYHq648gjuA8hAvLb87mUsnM064IpJcnc/edit?usp=sharing link so you can actually see it. If anyone knows how to make these table images readable on the forums lemme know.

For example, from this we can see that Arizona has 3909 TPE from the season 22 class and so on and so forth for every team and class actively playing right now. This does include send-downs as well. The easiest way to break down this data is probably to go team by team and then do some general observations. Also let’s be real, there’s a significant portion of people that will just skip to their team and read that bit anyway.

Some quick disclaimers before I continue though. I may reference good or bad draft classes in this article. When I say that I am purely talking about TPE. I’m not gunna bother evaluating personalities and all that junk. Also I will have outlook grades. Again, this is only looking at TPE, draft picks, ages of players on the team, etc. It does not look at who the GMs are, who I expect to get banned in the next couple seasons, who has the good sim testing, etc.

Arizona Outlaws ARI

Missing Draft Picks: S31 3rd round
Extra Draft Picks: None

First things first, let me explain this chart a bit since it isn’t immediately clear how it reads. The bars compare the teams TPE from that class to the average across the league. For example, the average rostered TPE for class 28 is 1,869.07. Arizona has 1012 TPE from S28 class players, so their bar shows -857 for S28 (857 TPE below the average for that class). That was not the best way to explain it, sorry bout that.

Anyway, onto actually talking about the data. Arizona has been considered the team to beat in the regular season for a while now and I think that’s reflected pretty well in this chart. They have the most TPE from the S24 class and are way above average in S25 as well. Those seasons are hitting their peak so it makes sense that Arizona is scary for the next season or two. Of course it’s hard to stay at the top for long. They have the second to worst S26 class at the moment (speaking purely in terms of TPE). If/when Arizona will have to rely on them it’ll be a rough time. Especially since they haven’t had particularly strong drafts TPE-wise. To make things trickier they’re missing a 3rd round draft pick for next season, so they have little margin for error if they want to remain competitive.

Outlook Grade: D

Austin Copperheads AUS

Missing Draft Picks: S31 2nd round
Extra Draft Picks: None

Has anyone mentioned yet that Austin has been kinda sim screwed lately? They’ve got the raw TPE to be doing far better than they have been. In theory they should be peaking around now when instead they missed the playoffs last season. The good news is they have one of the higher TPE totals without relying on those old S22 folks. S23 on the other hand… They’ve got above average young folk for the most part so Austin should be competitive for a while. Key word is should.

Outlook Grade: A

Baltimore Hawks BAL

Missing Draft Picks: S31 3rd round
Extra Draft Picks: None

Wow, Baltimore is finally out of extra draft picks. They’ve owned half the draft for as long as I’ve been in the league so this is kinda weird for me. So did the extra draft picks pay off? Let’s start with the good news. Their S28 and S29 classes were the best in the league, particularly the S29 class. S30 was above average as well. Three good classes who appear to be earning well should make Baltimore competitive here in a few seasons. Now the bad news. For starters, sim doesn’t care and could screw them anyway. The other thing is that they are now out of extra draft picks but still have the fewest players on their roster of any team in the league. I don’t know how much of a problem that will be but that is certainly something to keep an eye on if you’re following this rebuild.

Outlook Grade: B

Berlin Fire Salamanders BER

Missing Draft Picks: None
Extra Draft Picks: S31 3rd round

Turns out Berlin is where the S22 class hangs out. Despite that big chunk of TPE in the midst of regression, I don’t think it’s doom and gloom for Berlin in the future. They have solid/average classes well into the future with an extra draft pick next season. That should keep them afloat after S22 moves on. Maybe they won’t be quite as high-powered as they are now but they should at least be able to compete for a playoff spot every season for a while.

Outlook Grade: B

Chicago Butchers CHI

Missing Draft Picks: None
Extra Draft Picks: 2x S31 2nd round

Boy Chicago is all over the place. Interesting to note that they have 0 S26 players on the team right now. Fortunately for them they had a massive S30 draft though, plus a good S27 and S29 showing. Unfortunately they drafted @Painted in S28 so that will slow down their ‘rebuild’. Those 2 extra second round picks should ensure a good S31 class as well, making Chicago real well set up for the far future. The lack of good S25 and S26 classes should really hurt them over the next couple seasons though.

Coming back to Chicago after writing the rest of the article (don’t judge me I’m 100 words short of 2500). An interesting note is they currently have the largest roster of any ISFL team. I’m not sure exactly what to make of that other than they have the highest potential earning of every team. A lot of those are probably IA’s or casual earners so it probably won’t matter.

Outlook Grade: A

Colorado Yeti COL

Missing Draft Picks: S31 2nd round
Extra Draft Picks: None

If the S22 class hangs out in Berlin, the S24 class hangs out in Colorado. Other than having a S24 class far stronger than the rest of the league, the Yeti are remarkably average everywhere else. With the missing 2nd round next season I suspect that average will describe the Yeti roster pretty well once the S24 class is a season or two into regression. Assuming no shakeups of course.

Outlook Grade: C

Honolulu Hahalua HON

Missing Draft Picks: S31 3rd round
Extra Draft Picks: S32 4th round

This is like the opposite of Arizona’s chart. Really bad showing from every class pre-26. S26 and S27 were excellent however, which is what Honolulu is hoping will lift them out of the basement of the conference. A poor S28 class is a pretty big wrench however, so it will be interesting to see how much that matters. As far as draft picks go I think they more or less break even. Obviously you’d rather have a S31 3rd round pick than a S32 4th round, but it won’t be the difference in Honolulu’s future. This team could really go either way but I’d be optimistic given 2+ seasons time.

Outlook Grade: B

New York Silverbacks NYS

Missing Draft Picks: None
Extra Draft Picks: None

It’s no surprise that the reigning champs have strong showings from classes that are peaking. Just don’t look any further than that. For the past three classes they’ve come up short in TPE, including 0 players from the entire S30 class. It’s not like NYS is going to the bottom of the division next season as their incredible S25 class will carry them for a while, but looking at S28 on it’s hard to imagine them forming any kind of dynasty without some roster wizardry. If you’re a Silverback don’t take this grade personally. Y’all still cool people.

Outlook Grade: F

Orange County Otters OCO

Missing Draft Picks: None
Extra Draft Picks: S31 round 3

This is going to be a complicated one to talk about since I’m a part of the OCO locker room myself but I’ll try to remain somewhat neutral. First off there’s no ignoring the slump S23-S27. I believe OCO is the second lowest TPE at the moment so the fact they’re still competing for playoff spots (with questionable success but still), is something to be happy about. The massively successful S28 class followed by a decent S29 and S30 class is cause for a lot of optimism. The extra pick in the next draft will hopefully be enough to ensure another above average class meaning OCO would have 4 good classes to secure their future. A lot can happen between now and when those classes are peaking though, especially with a couple tough seasons ahead until we’re out of the slump.

I haven’t talked about the rosters for every team (that’s another article) but I’ll make an exception here. When talking about the future of OCO there’s a pretty big elephant in the room. When are we getting rid of that boomer Ramza and who’s replacing him? Well by requesting a shoutout in this article Bender Rodriguez aka @shrub02 has volunteered to position swap to QB and lead OCO to their next dynasty. I for one welcome our new robot overlord and look forward to him revolutionizing this team with blackjack and hookers and hopefully wins.

Outlook Grade: B (I want to say A but trying not to be a homer)

Philadelphia Liberty PHI

Missing Draft Picks: S32 4th round
Extra Draft Picks: S31 3rd round, S32 3rd round

A lot has been said about Philadelphia’s outstanding young players. The chart may not portray it very well but they have one of the best S27 and S28 classes. Their S25 class doesn’t get enough credit either, as it’s the best by a large margin. I suspect Philly will go from missing the playoffs to absolute powerhouse pretty soon as that S25 class comes to peak and their younger crew get more involved on the field. They’re already in the top half in terms of total TPE. Now they just need to get it in the right places and keep Negs from throwing interceptions.

Outlook Grade: A

Sarasota Sailfish SAR

Missing Draft Picks: None
Extra Draft Picks: S31 3rd round

We go from the most dominant S25 class to the S25 team in dead last. I don’t think Sarasota is too bummed about that though cause they still winnin games. They have a lot of TPE spread out between a lot of classes with the exception of S25. In fact, they are currently at the top of the TPE leaderboard. Their recent classes leave some to be desired however. On the other hand, they’ll have a good couple seasons where they don’t have Frost on the roster (probably) so maybe they’ll have a decent window for success there. Anyway, there’s something to be said for having the top TPE and having an extra draft pick. I suspect they’ll have a small slump in 2-3 seasons where they’re still competing for playoffs spots. Nothing to be concerned about.

Outlook Grade: C

San Jose Sabercats SJS

Missing Draft Picks: None
Extra Draft Picks: None

As SJS sits at 0-4 there’s no denying the slump they're in. Easy to see from the chart why that is. There is some satisfying and consistent progress however as they’ve gotten better and better classes as time goes on. If they continue drafting well and developing their younger players they’ll be just fine after a few seasons. Unfortunately this will not be an immediate improvement I suspect. SJS may have to suffer through a few seasons before talking about playoffs again. There’s also a lot of work to do/luck involved in this ‘rebuild’. Because of that my grade will be kinda low but SJS has the most chance to prove me wrong I think. As a side note, SJS is one of the few teams with all of their draft picks and none extra. Kinda surprised there aren’t more but hey, it makes things more interesting.

Outlook Grade: C

Yellowknife Wraiths YKW

Missing Draft Picks: S31 3rd round
Extra Draft Picks: None

Yellowknife’s future lies entirely with the S22 class. If Yellowknife can successfully coup HO and do away with regression then they’ll be in good shape. Otherwise it seems like they’re in for a real rough time. They don’t have a lot in the pipeline for the future, headlines by 0 players from the entire S27 class. What’s more is that there’s little margin for error next draft as they’re missing a draft pick. But it gets worse! They are tied with Yellowknife for the smallest roster so every retirement is going to hurt, and there will be a lot soon. It’s entirely possible I’m too inexperienced to spot this silver linings, but I’m struggling to see any positives here other than they’re pretty good right now and have a championship. Though if they’re about to enter a rebuild, it’s gunna be a long and tough one. Of course they could always do some roster wizardry and earn really well and remain competitive but I’d be shocked if they win the regular season in the next several seasons. Again, I’m sorry Yellowknife. Y’all are cool but this looks grim.

Outlook Grade: F

New Orleans Second Line NOLA

Missing Draft Picks: None
Extra Draft Picks: None

Going out of alphabetical order because I feel like it and not because I almost left off NOLA. New Orleans is a bit all over the place with their players, some strong old classes and new classes, as well as a few that aren’t represented as well. They don’t have a lot hitting regression though as they have very weak S22 and S23 classes. That’s not necessarily a bad thing as it means they’ll have more longevity. Overall I think there’s a lot to be positive about if you’re NOLA. They should see immediate and sustained improvement. I’m not sure it will be as dominant as others but could be wrong. This grade could be either an A or a B. I’m going with B only because S24 will be pretty deep in regression when S27 is peaking, leaving NOLA in a bit of an awkward spot there for a little bit.

Outlook Grade: B

Grade Summary

ARI - D
AUS - A
BAL - B
BER - B
CHI - A
COL - C
HON - B
NOLA - B
NYS - F
OCO - B
PHI - A
SAR - C
SJS - C
YKW - F

Repeating the disclaimer that this only takes into account TPE totals, how old the players are, and how many draft picks a team has. Some teams will be able to get TPE in the right positions to remain competitive, others will be sim screwed, others will draft Frost then sux lmap. Let me know which grades you would have given because I am curious what y’all think.

Also Also because I forgot to say earlier. It’s worth noting that classes like S22 account for a ton more TPE than S20 or S30. There also hasn’t been any free agent movement from S28 classes or newer so expect more volatility there as time goes on.

Ok I’m finally done. It’s been fun going through each team and trying to predict their outlook. Now if only there was some way to bet on the long term success of a team. Like stocks or something.

Word Count ~ 2700

RE: Team Outlooks - zaynzk - 07-24-2021

Drafting players is a suckers game

RE: Team Outlooks - Net - 07-24-2021

(07-24-2021, 04:17 PM)zaynzk Wrote: Drafting players is a suckers game

as a draftee, can confirm

RE: Team Outlooks - Painted - 07-24-2021

There is a 1:1 correlation between drafting me and having a lower average total TPE so this article checks out.

CHI = Bad now

RE: Team Outlooks - shrub02 - 07-24-2021

Can't believe I'm finding out like this...

RE: Team Outlooks - Rusfan - 07-24-2021

S24 best S

RE: Team Outlooks - Revolution5 - 07-25-2021

Great article!

RE: Team Outlooks - siddhus - 07-25-2021

i took over after the S25 draft, and looks like since then we have looked pretty solid other than S28 (rip zorem Sad

). I do think if you redo this article in a few seasons, our S30 class will look even better, with our 80 TP draftee having 140 after his next update and a couple of other lower Tp draftees staying active. Despite the results of last season and how this season has started off, I am excited for the future of Honolulu. Nice article!

RE: Team Outlooks - negs - 07-25-2021

Why did I know interceptions and myself would be mentioned together here

RE: Team Outlooks - slate - 07-25-2021

This is awesome analysis, great work! I think it's hard to use this to analyze how good of drafing teams have done in the past as free agency can make a huge difference in how a team's class will look. For instance, Kotasa leaving SJS in FA accounts for like 80+% of their ~1600 TPE deficit from having an average S25 draft class.

Speaking of which, I think it would be really interesting to plot these as "max earner equivalents" or something to normalize between draft classes. For instance, having one extra max earning S24 player right now can create a 1400-1500 TPE lead for a team, whereas having one extra max earning S29 player is only about 500-550 TPE. If you were able to divide each bar by how much TPE an "average" max earning player in each class has (which you'd have to define) you could get a number that's roughly uniform across draft classes. A team with +0.5 in S29 would be as good relative to an average S29 draft as a team with +0.5 in S25 would be compared to an average S25 class, whereas right now being +500 TPE in S25 is not nearly as good as being +500 TPE in S29 despite them looking the same on your plots. Hopefully that makes sense, happy to chat on Discord if it's unclear.

And then the final wrinkle to maybe add on top of that could be normalizing to the size of the draft class somehow, but I have a less clear idea of how to account for that.